Polls Thread Mk III

[DaRick]

Yeah i see today that QLD oremier is up 20+ % for preferred premier with the new poll , but yet LNP lead 52-48 , that just doesent make sense imo .

We don't know exactly why the LNP lead.

If they're leading due to swings in existing LNP electorates, that doesn't mean much.

That said, Palaszczuk is widely disliked outside of Brisbane.

EDIT: Queenslanders are typically very cautious about changing governments (so classically conservative). Government changes in this state are invariably caused by widespread anger at the incumbent and large swings to the opposition. I wouldn't call Palaszczuk popular, but I'm not sure voters, particularly in Brisbane, are as angry with her as they were at Bligh/Newman. I'm also not sure that a rural LNP member like Frecklington can precipitate large swings, particularly in Brisbane.

 

[Tiges1229]

We don't know exactly why the LNP lead.

If they're leading due to swings in existing LNP electorates, that doesn't mean much.

That said, Palaszczuk is widely disliked outside of Brisbane.

EDIT: Queenslanders are typically very cautious about changing governments (so classically conservative). Government changes in this state are invariably caused by widespread anger at the incumbent and large swings to the opposition. I wouldn't call Palaszczuk popular, but I'm not sure voters, particularly in Brisbane, are as angry with her as they were at Bligh/Newman. I'm also not sure that a rural LNP member like Frecklington can precipitate large swings, particularly in Brisbane.

Who do you think wins in Qld ?

 

[DaRick]

Who do you think wins in Qld ?

At this stage, I'd be surprised if Frecklington won, because that would mean she did pretty well in Brisbane.

Best-case scenario is that the LNP win minority government.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

It's going to be interesting to see the fallout from the Covid 2nd wave here in Victoria. I don't think what's happened is entirely Dan's fault but he has certainly made some mistakes recently. Is it enough for a groundswell of hatred to build up?, I would have said no way a month ago but right now it's definitely a possibility. Has a huge lead but it may not be enough if he cannot get this under control and portray a strong leader with things under control. The only thing in his favour is time on his side. Has enough time till the next election to win back trust he would be losing right now.

 

[ep2018]

Scomo gained again on Albo and the LNP gained two points on Labor to go 53-47. My question: when the economy tanks within the year, will people still be on the Scomo/LNP train?

 

[Vindicater]

Essential reporting now giving voter intention again but have changed their format to not include undecided voters.

They have Labir ahead 47-45 but obviouslly this misses 8% who are undecided.

I would think that 8% are more likely to go the incumbant government.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I'm also not sure that a rural LNP member like Frecklington can precipitate large swings, particularly in Brisbane.

I agree. Ever since Bjelke-Petersen's rorting of electorates was ended, the LNP have struggled badly with leaders from outside Brisbane. Borbidge only just made it, and he only won 9/40 seats in Brisbane.

 

[DaRick]

I agree. Ever since Bjelke-Petersen's rorting of electorates was ended, the LNP have struggled badly with leaders from outside Brisbane. Borbidge only just made it, and he only won 9/40 seats in Brisbane.

Borbidge was still technically urban (Surfers Paradise) and he was helped by antipathy within Brisbane towards Goss (association with Keating/highway controversy). Annastasia doesn't have that issue within Brisbane itself IMO, although she probably does outside of it.

 

[Reynolds Number]

Newspoll has the Coalition leading the 2PP 52-48, and 60 percent believe Morrison is the better PM option, compared to 25 percent for Albanese.

 

[DaRick]

Newspoll has the Coalition leading the 2PP 52-48, and 60 percent believe Morrison is the better PM option, compared to 25 percent for Albanese.

The COVID supplement has insulated many Australians from what would have been real economic pain, plus the debacles in NSW/Victoria are more easily blamed on Andrews' mistakes (such as they were) handling COVID in his state.

So in summary, I'm not that surprised.

 

[PonsfordMagpie]

LNP 54-46 ALP according to the latest Roy Morgan poll released today.

L-NP (54%) widens lead over ALP (46%) in mid-August as Victoria and NSW grapple with second wave of COVID-19 - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

 

[Reynolds Number]

Also, this poll from Roy Morgan is interesting given the divisiveness of Victorian policy in the media.

People are not really interested in golf nor protests.

This was courtesy of someone else on social media.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[DaRick]

View attachment 1010704

See, I was surprised by Victorians who thought that Andrews would resign.

I may be an outsider, but the way I see it, as long as the VIC Libs are the opposition he could stay Premier for as long as he likes.

 

[Fire]

View attachment 1010704

Damn thats even more than the election wasn't it?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

November 17 Essential Poll

 

[Todman]

 

[Vindicater]

I am signed up to yougov and reckon I have been polled one for newspoll. (About three cycles ago)

Just wondering if there is any info on how they conduct it? Where the people come from who were questioned. (I am SA) etc. I cant find anything through the yougov website.

 

[tandino]

The interpretation and discourse over polls has been a particular bugbear of mine over the last few years. The latest Essential is a good case in point.

Guardian Essential poll: majority see early election as political opportunism

Only one in four survey respondents were confident the Morrison government has a plan for Covid vaccination

www.theguardian.com

Essentially, there were a bunch of questions for which there were three possible answers.

Ahead of the resumption of federal parliament this week, Guardian Essential poll respondents were also asked a series of questions to chart their level of confidence in the government’s plans across a range of important issues that will be prosecuted this year.

Fair enough. According to the interpretation of Katharine Murphy;

And a significant majority worry the Morrison government either lacks a long-term plan on a range of policy fronts or is failing to communicate its plans clearly.

The statement is accurate. But does it fairly represent what the poll shows?

The Covid-19 vaccination rollout is the most significant practical and political challenge the government faces, but only 25% of respondents said they were confident the government had a clear plan.

A further 42% suspected the government did have a plan for the vaccine rollout, but believed it had been poorly communicated, while 32% were not confident a plan existed.

So 67% believe there is a plan, 32% believe there is no plan.

There were similarly hedged responses across other significant policy issues. Only 21% of the sample believed there was a federal plan on quarantine facilities*, while 79% thought either there was a plan but poor communication (38%) or no plan at all (41%).

59% plan, 41% no plan. (*so 59%, not 21%, believed there was a federal plan on quarantine facilities. That line is incorrect)

When it came to deficit reduction, 16% felt Morrison had a clear plan, while 84% either thought there was a plan but poor communication (43%) or feared no plan (41%).

59% plan, 41% no plan

The idea of a Coalition plan for emissions reduction generated the highest level of scepticism from survey respondents (47% of the sample saw no plan, while 35% saw a poorly communicated plan and 18% felt they could divine a strategy).

53% plan, 47% no plan.

While the government committed more than $17bn in the recent budget on aged care in response to the damning findings of the royal commission, only 22% believed there was a clear plan to reform the sector, while 39% thought there was a plan but poor communication and 39% lacked confidence there was a plan.

61% plan, 39% no plan

Only 21% of respondents believe the government has a readily understood plan to reopen the international border, while 40% thought there was a poorly communicated plan and 39% lacked confidence there was a plan.

61% plan, 39% no plan.

So a majority across the board believe there is a plan on every issue Essential thought important enough to ask about. I think she has grouped the answers together incorrectly and thus has butchered the interpretation of the poll. The most useful take out must be Plan v No Plan.


Later in the day, I think Peter Lewis gets closer (as he should, it's his poll)

If ever a seat was not a litmus test for Labor it’s the Upper Hunter. Still the byelection reveals some truths | Peter Lewis

The result underscores Australia’s post-pandemic political dynamic and the rewards of incumbency, spending and isolationism

www.theguardian.com

Again, the challenge for Labor is that this belief is at the core of its broader project: government intervenes to support those without power. Undermining the faith that this is now possible may be effective in the short-term but would be destructive to Labor’s longer-term interests.

Most pointedly, the majority of respondents to this week’s report assume the government has a plan to shepherd Australia through the next 12 months.

This is a fascinating finding that reinforces my thesis that faith in government is almost at biblical proportions.

With the vaccine and quarantine rollout we are prepared to suspend our observed reality in favour of the belief that there is a plan. On national debt and aged care reform we put our faith in a higher power. Even on climate change, we believe that if we look deeply enough something approaching a plan to reduce our carbon emissions may emerge.

We can’t quite explain what these plans are, but we believe they are there because their absence would be untenable.

Or maybe they believe they are there because that's what they believe. Or maybe they believe they are there because they are there?

Thank you for attending my Ted talk.

 

[random260]

I've been thinking about why voters including majority coalition want federal quarantine it makes sense now.

Voters trust scomo to do a good job and when leaks happen they plead to get somebody more component to do the job. That is liberals.

So majority of voters want libs to run hotel not because its their job but because they are more component and trust them

 

[Number37]

I've been thinking ...

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

Newspoll 53-47 to ALP. Primaries: ALP 39 LNP 39 Greens 10 ON 3 Other 9. Morrison: Approve 51 (-4) Disapprove 45 (+4). Albanese: Approve 38 (-2) Disapprove 46 (+1). Preferred PM: Morrison 51 (-2) Albanese 33 (0).

 

[Pessimistic]

Newspoll 53-47 to ALP. Primaries: ALP 39 LNP 39 Greens 10 ON 3 Other 9. Morrison: Approve 51 (-4) Disapprove 45 (+4). Albanese: Approve 38 (-2) Disapprove 46 (+1). Preferred PM: Morrison 51 (-2) Albanese 33 (0).

so roughly the figure morrison used to knife Malcolm, and also win an election from?

 

[Vindicater]

We will have Dutton or Frydenberg as PM in the next sitting.

 

[Pessimistic]

Have the libs gone with a Victorian since Menzies? Droopy **** I suppose. They haven’t gone with Queenslanders either. They are the ACB