Polls Thread Mk III

[Theseventhhamster]

Both QLD and VIC have a big rivalry with NSW. The "PM for NSW" will hurt in both states.

I heard that VIC and SA don't have the best relationship, either.

Nah Vic/SA is just a footy thing. Nothing in it. Agree on PM for NSW being equally strong here and QLD.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Hmmm...I hate to be a killjoy, but Roy Morgan and Newspoll have the same result.

I know Resolve's was very different, and it's much less likely that you have identical results with such a large margin between the parties, so surely we're not seeing poll herding again?

Does anyone know anything about any potential sampling errors?

RE the polls, I've commented on them elsewhere.

TLDR; ScoMo is reminding me of Campbell Newman in that the electorate may not be sure about his opponent, but they sure as hell don't like him. The PPM measure says it all in that regard. ScoMo should be comfortably ahead on that; that he isn't points to trouble.

I think that if things don't improve by March/April, they'll try to knife him and replace him with The Fry (ScoMo's made it tricky, though). He'd do better in inner-city areas, VIC and WA simply by not being ScoMo. His performance in inner-city QLD would be better than Morrison's, but elsewhere in Brisbane I'd be more dubious, and he'll be a trainwreck in QLD's regions.

Could be poll herding again - I'll be suspicious if they all consolidate around this mark and stay stagnant throughout the campaign... this time I'm refusing to get excited until the first votes are counted.

Don't see any advantage in dumping him now - last time they had 8 months to recalibrate and get their campagn into sync with their media arm. Two months out would be horrendously chaotic, especially if it isn't bloodless.

And for every MP that would be safer with Frydenberg as leader, there's another in the outer suburbs or regions who would fare worse, so no chance of spilling for the sake of self-preservation anyway.




Poll-wise, I thought the most interesting tidbit was the NSW result in Morgan. Admittedly, those bounce around a bit, but it was showing the biggest ALP swing of all the states.

Their whole strategy has basically been hack into Labor in NSW and stem the bleeding elsewhere. Pretty much nowhere else are has there ever been talk about potentially picking-up (maybe Lyons, maybe Lingiari, but even they seem to have fizzled.)

 

[Theseventhhamster]

He's not unknown anymore and all of his cabinet are complete ****ups who he again won't have front of camera. All he has is the constant me me me cosplay stuff and people have started to notice he's just a massive dickhead. I get being worried 7/9/Murdoch are going to carry him home again but I just don't see it when it seems clear he's going to run the same game again as a known product.

 

[DaRick]

Could be poll herding again - I'll be suspicious if they all consolidate around this mark and stay stagnant throughout the campaign... this time I'm refusing to get excited until the first votes are counted.

Don't see any advantage in dumping him now - last time they had 8 months to recalibrate and get their campagn into sync with their media arm. Two months out would be horrendously chaotic, especially if it isn't bloodless.

And for every MP that would be safer with Frydenberg as leader, there's another in the outer suburbs or regions who would fare worse, so no chance of spilling for the sake of self-preservation anyway.




Poll-wise, I thought the most interesting tidbit was the NSW result in Morgan. Admittedly, those bounce around a bit, but it was showing the biggest ALP swing of all the states.

Their whole strategy has basically been hack into Labor in NSW and stem the bleeding elsewhere. Pretty much nowhere else are has there ever been talk about potentially picking-up (maybe Lyons, maybe Lingiari, but even they seem to have fizzled.)

NSW were hit pretty hard by Delta/OMICRON - only VIC copped it worse.

Plus the NSW Premier is L/NP, so it's very easy to tie his screwups to ScoMo, especially since they were clearly of the same mind regarding opening up. That's part of the reason why John Howard never liked L/NP state governments.

Moreover, my impression was that the lockdowns Berejiklian instituted affected Western Sydney disproportionately, which caused a fair amount of resentment, and I just don't think that ScoMo's schtick plays very well in electorates like Wentworth. He has a bit of Mark Latham's pushiness, and that does turn some 'doctor's wives' off.

 

[Hornberger]

ALP (56.5%) increases lead over the L-NP (43.5%) in late January as ‘Summer reset’ for Government fails to materialise - Roy Morgan Research

ALP support is now at 56.5% (up 0.5% points since mid-January) cf. L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll...

www.roymorgan.com

 

[dusty1234!]

Still way too early
Too much can happen in 3 months

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Stokes/7 Poll

View attachment 1315274

Labor hasn't hit 40 per cent primary vote since Kevin 07. If that holds by May it's over. Albo just has to keep doing what he is doing. No outlandish promises at least not yet until they actually get in and keep pounding the electorate with these guys stink and we will be better in the areas that they are failing in. It will be enough.

 

[Vindicater]

Labor hasn't hit 40 per cent primary vote since Kevin 07. If that holds by May it's over. Albo just has to keep doing what he is doing. No outlandish promises at least not yet until they actually get in and keep pounding the electorate with these guys stink and we will be better in the areas that they are failing in. It will be enough.

Dont believe anything from that poll. Was not conducted following any of the rules of polling to insure integirty.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Absolutely.

I'm just making the point that Albo's basically a Beazley/Biden/Annastacia - a challenger who doesn't really arouse strong feelings one way or the other.

He isn't resonating like Rudd did in 07. That was Gough Whitlam like in the momentum he got in the lead up but it doesn't need to be. People need someone sensible to steer the ship back on course and implement the changes needed without the fanfare.

 

[DaRick]

Dont believe anything from that poll. Was not conducted following any of the rules of polling to insure integirty.

The measurement that grabbed me was this:

That's pretty consistent with the latest figures from the Essential Poll:

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research poll includes the pollster’s quarterly-or-so dump of voting intention numbers, and that it will henceforth abandon its practice of holding them back and publish them promptly every fortnight. The latest set of numbers is a fair bit better for the Coalition than its recent form from other pollsters, with primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 35%, Greens 9%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 2%, independents 5% and 8% undecided.

If the undecided are removed and preference flows from the 2019 election applied, this gives Labor a two-party preferred lead a shade higher than 51-49. Essential Research instead gives us its “2PP+” measure which does not exclude the undecided, and comes out with Labor on 47%, the Coalition on 46% and undecided on 8%. The pollster’s website includes three further sets of hitherto unpublished results going back to the start of December, which show these latest results to be stronger for the Coalition than last fortnight’s, which had them on 36% of the primary vote to Labor’s 37%, with the Greens on 8% and One Nation and the United Australia Party on 3% each.

This disproves my concerns that there's any poll herding going on, and there are no obvious sampling errors (as of yet), but it shows that the situation is dangerously volatile and that ScoMo can't be counted out.

I can still see a 1998-style situation happening where Albo shifts the 2PP, even getting a positive 2PP (even more likely than an election win), but can't swing enough seats to form government.

As ever, much depends on the state of the pandemic and the economy come election time, plus the sort of campaign that the ALP run and whatever idiotic behaviour third parties might engage in.

Newspoll is normally considered the most reliable pollster, with Roy Morgan favouring the ALP, and Newspoll's figures don't flatter the LNP in the slightest, so I'm still keeping my 65% prediction for Albo, but that could easily change.

 

[Magruder]

Could be poll herding again - I'll be suspicious if they all consolidate around this mark and stay stagnant throughout the campaign... this time I'm refusing to get excited until the first votes are counted.

Don't see any advantage in dumping him now - last time they had 8 months to recalibrate and get their campagn into sync with their media arm. Two months out would be horrendously chaotic, especially if it isn't bloodless.

And for every MP that would be safer with Frydenberg as leader, there's another in the outer suburbs or regions who would fare worse, so no chance of spilling for the sake of self-preservation anyway.




Poll-wise, I thought the most interesting tidbit was the NSW result in Morgan. Admittedly, those bounce around a bit, but it was showing the biggest ALP swing of all the states.

Their whole strategy has basically been hack into Labor in NSW and stem the bleeding elsewhere. Pretty much nowhere else are has there ever been talk about potentially picking-up (maybe Lyons, maybe Lingiari, but even they seem to have fizzled.)

Dunkley an outside chance.

Expecting Holt to be more competitive in coming cycles also…

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

The measurement that grabbed me was this:

That's pretty consistent with the latest figures from the Essential Poll:



This disproves my concerns that there's any poll herding going on, and there are no obvious sampling errors (as of yet), but it shows that the situation is dangerously volatile and that ScoMo can't be counted out.

I can still see a 1998-style situation happening where Albo shifts the 2PP, even getting a positive 2PP (even more likely than an election win), but can't swing enough seats to form government.

As ever, much depends on the state of the pandemic and the economy come election time, plus the sort of campaign that the ALP run and whatever idiotic behaviour third parties might engage in.

Newspoll is normally considered the most reliable pollster, with Roy Morgan favouring the ALP, and Newspoll's figures don't flatter the LNP in the slightest, so I'm still keeping my 65% prediction for Albo, but that could easily change.

If he can't swing enough seats in this current environment with this awful government he should resign from politics and they start a massive clean out of the old brigade. Plibersek, Dreyfus etc. Give Chalmers the reins for as long as he needs. That's all crystal ball stuff but I could see it playing out like this if it went down the Scomo stays PM path.

 

[Kyptastic]

Seems the drop in 2pp comes entirely from Greens preferences

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Seems the drop in 2pp comes entirely from Greens preferences

Wondering if this is a sign the conservative Indis are biting

 

[Vindicater]

Tingle dropping a leak last night from the NSW libs that their internal polling has Labor up 59-41 in NSW...

No wonder they are shitting bricks.

 

[Hornberger]

Tingle dropping a leak last night from the NSW libs that their internal polling has Labor up 59-41 in NSW...

No wonder they are shitting bricks.

Given that most polls have it as 55-45 nationally, I find hard to believe that NSW could be 59-41.

 

[Gough]

Given that most polls have it as 55-45 nationally, I find hard to believe that NSW could be 59-41.

Interesting that it's supposed to be internal. My mate was confident at the last election based on internal Lib polling and was proved right. If this is correct it's little wonder they're getting shouty.

 

[Hornberger]

Interesting that it's supposed to be internal. My mate was confident at the last election based on internal Lib polling and was proved right. If this is correct it's little wonder they're getting shouty.

Internal polling also had Romney winning the 2012 presidential election. Because most internal polling never gets published, its not possible to tell whether on average it tends to be more accurate, less accurate or about the same as external polling.

 

[pjcrows]

Tingle dropping a leak last night from the NSW libs that their internal polling has Labor up 59-41 in NSW...

No wonder they are shitting bricks.

Deliberate fake release by the Libs.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Internal polling also had Romney winning the 2012 presidential election. Because most internal polling never gets published, its not possible to tell whether on average it tends to be more accurate, less accurate or about the same as external polling.

Polling in the UK and USA is tougher because it's also got to measure you're likelihood of actually voting.

Compulsory voting in Australia removes that problem, so it's more down to the quality of the questions, and the representation of the sample

 

[Hornberger]

Deliberate fake release by the Libs.

For what purpose?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Given that most polls have it as 55-45 nationally, I find hard to believe that NSW could be 59-41.

Its 58 - 42 in Vic

 

[Hornberger]

Its 58 - 42 in Vic

Last election was 53-47 in Vic, so 58-42 would be a 10 point swing which consistent with the national polling

Last election was 48-52 in NSW, so 59-41 would be a 22 point swing which is completely inconsistent with the national polling

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Last election was 53-47 in Vic, so 58-42 would be a 10 point swing which consistent with the national polling

Last election was 48-52 in NSW, so 59-41 would be a 22 point swing which is completely inconsistent with the national polling

Yeah, I get your point, but there was huge swing in Gladys' old seat, something like 19%

It is difficult to believe, but I've seen even more bizarre swings

 

[DaRick]

Internal polling also had Romney winning the 2012 presidential election. Because most internal polling never gets published, its not possible to tell whether on average it tends to be more accurate, less accurate or about the same as external polling.

Must have been pretty unrepresentative, because 538 gave Obama a 90% chance of winning that one (taking into account the below models, it was probably closer to 80% in reality, but who cares?).

Polling in the UK and USA is tougher because it's also got to measure you're likelihood of actually voting.

Compulsory voting in Australia removes that problem, so it's more down to the quality of the questions, and the representation of the sample

I've found that to come close to accurately predicting the outcome of elections with voluntary voting + FPTP you have to take into account several factors:

• Subjective feel (talking to people on the ground + candidate posters + where such posters are located + the 'felt' economy + social media)
• Idiotic behaviour by groups that could be tied to one party or the other (BLM, Adani convoy, letting a pandemic spread)
• How strong one's base is, plus how each candidate is perceived (I've found that an incumbent with substantial 'negative partisanship' will still be competitive against an unconvincing challenger, but they're not likely to actually win - if the challenger is equally disliked, that's obviously not the case)
• The demographic groups that favour the candidate
• Predictions from a variety of sources:

• While I've tried not to place too much emphasis on polling, it is noteworthy that polling from a variety of prediction markets at least weakly favours a Biden win (averaging out to 27% chance of Trump winning):
• Augur (crypto prediction market) – 42%
• PredictIt (prediction market) – 40%
• Election Betting Odds (aggregator of odds from betting sites and PredictIt) – 36%
• Hypermind (superforecasters) – 27%
• Metaculus (prediction market more geared towards rationalists) – 20%
• Good Judgment Project (superforecasters) – 16%
• 538 model (most prominent polls-based model) – 10%

- So I'm not accused of being a LWNJ by certain posters whom I assume enjoy certain sensual pleasures a bit too much, I'm going to reference this guy, who has put up a variety of models on his blog, all of which at least weakly predict a Biden win. He has also admitted that 538's prediction in 2016 (Hillary: 70 Trump: 30) was reasonable (Disclaimer: DO NOT take this as an endorsement of either Anatoly Karlin or The UNZ more generally).

Given that Biden's win in 2020 was roughly equivalent to Trump's win in 2016 - arguably more convincing if you take into account the popular vote - this seems to be the best way of predicting elections, and I'll try it again during this election. Polls will be more reliable in AUS than in the US, but 2019 has shown us that you can't rely too much on them.

I don't place a massive emphasis on social media activity because social media accounts, particularly Scott Morrison's, are tightly monitored and subject to censorship.

RE the latest Newspoll, for now I mostly regard it as statistical noise. RE the decline in Albo's ratings, that's within the MOE for now and I'm not yet sure if that's a sign that ScoMo's attacks on him are having some effect. I'm unconvinced, because ScoMo has become widely disliked and frankly Albo is IMO Beazley Mk 2 - he's a reasonably likeable but generic guy who isn't easy to have strong feelings about one way or the other. The situation, while very volatile and subject to change (pandemic + felt economy + the ALP's campaign are all important), still reminds me of Biden vs Trump or Annastacia vs Newman.

The only move which IMO wasn't within the MOE was the Greens vote, and Ned_Flanders supposition that quite a bit of that decline was down to Tree Tories abandoning them for climate-friendly independents, especially in their VIC base, rings true for me.

I expected the Greens to do better than in 2019 due to being more disciplined - not because they have that much political and strategic sense (they still publicly fight with the ALP too much for my liking, when the LNP are their real enemies), but because the Adani convoy was such a trainwreck - but I didn't take into account the possibility that Tree Tories would abandon them. It makes sense, given that Tree Tories wouldn't agree with that much of what The Greens (a broadly leftist party) would stand for, and that 20% of Greens preferences went to the LNP last time. I'd say that while more preferences will go to the ALP this time (up to 90/10), that they'll have a lower PV than I initially expected. It should still be around 9-10% given that minor parties have been chipping away at the LNP/ALP duopoly over a long period of time, and the Greens will benefit from that somewhat by definition, but they won't get to 11-12%.