Polls Thread Mk III

[Kyptastic]

Morgan Yesterday

57 - 43

I have absolutely no faith in Morgan, it seems to be a massive outlier.

 

[Hornberger]

I have absolutely no faith in Morgan, it seems to be a massive outlier.

I wouldn't call it an outlier. Morgan has on average been about 4% more favorable to the ALP than Newspoll, while Essential has been on average 5% more favorable to the LNP than Newspoll (but they are not directly comparable to Morgan and Newspoll as they report undecided voters in their 2PP result).

This is quite different to 2019 when all the pollsters were pretty much moving on lock-step.

It will only be after the election will you able to tell which polling company had the better methodology (unless they are herd together at a nice safe 52-48 for their election-eve poll)

Then you have Resolve Strategic who are too cowardly to publish a 2PP result - you can't be accused of getting your polling wrong if you don't predict a winner.

 

[Kyptastic]

One thing I would like to see is if there is a marked difference in the amount of undecided voters at this point in the election cycle between now and in 2019.

 

[Hornberger]

One thing I would like to see is if there is a marked difference in the amount of undecided voters at this point in the election cycle between now and in 2019.

If you look at the people who responded 'Other' foe 2019 vs. people who responded either 'Other' or undecided for 2022 (and the opinion polls that include undecided report a much lower total for other), the average is 12% vs. 11%.

This suggests the number of undecided voter's is probably quite similar.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I have absolutely no faith in Morgan, it seems to be a massive outlier.

I think they all have some sort of bias

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Kooyong

Monique Ryan: 59
Frydenberg: 41


57% Disapproval rate for Scummo

Kooyong poll points to loss for Frydenberg

A new poll shows the seat of Kooyong, held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, could be lost to an independent with strong local support.

7news.com.au

 

[Pessimistic]

Kooyong

Monique Ryan: 59
Frydenberg: 41


57% Disapproval rate for Scummo

Kooyong poll points to loss for Frydenberg

A new poll shows the seat of Kooyong, held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, could be lost to an independent with strong local support.

7news.com.au

Frustrating it’s hard to read the actual poll anywhere. It’s union sponsored btw

 

[Vindicater]

If Morrison has really abandoned the teal seats I dont see how he wins a majority.

We are 100% heading to a minority government (which ia good in my opinion)

I reckon 70% chance of Labor and 30% chance of coalition.

 

[Pessimistic]

If Morrison has really abandoned the teal seats I dont see how he wins a majority.

We are 100% heading to a minority government (which ia good in my opinion)

I reckon 70% chance of Labor and 30% chance of coalition.

Who’s funding the libs fighting so many seats?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

If Morrison has really abandoned the teal seats I dont see how he wins a majority.

We are 100% heading to a minority government (which ia good in my opinion)

I reckon 70% chance of Labor and 30% chance of coalition.

minority isnt that bad. The teals IMO will support a liberal govt and the majority of its policy position, as long as they get thrown a bone on climate change

 

[Magruder]

minority isnt that bad. The teals IMO will support a liberal govt and the majority of its policy position, as long as they get thrown a bone on climate change

but not one led by Scott.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

but not one led by Scott.

they will do the deal

they have more in common with the libs than the alp

 

[DaRick]

they will do the deal

they have more in common with the libs than the alp

My own thought is that ScoMo's approach might alienate them.

They're caught in between a rock and a hard place; their constituents don't like ScoMo, but they don't like the ALP either.

In that situation, they're more likely to assess the individual leaders.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

My own thought is that ScoMo's approach might alienate them.

They're caught in between a rock and a hard place; their constituents don't like ScoMo, but they don't like the ALP either.

In that situation, they're more likely to assess the individual leaders.

they still need to be re-elected, and they are liberal lite. becoming alp lite is a death sentence.

 

[Pessimistic]

Like the Democrats?

 

[Magruder]

Like the Democrats?

I wonder if Meg Lees would do anything differently if she could have another crack at it?

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I wonder if Meg Lees would do anything differently if she could have another crack at it?

Megs Lees started the decline with the GST split, but in 2001 they still had over 7% of the vote. Under Natasha Stott Despoja, despite her youth appeal this crashed to barely 2%

They used to be the centralists who "kept the bastards honest", but under Stott Despoja they morphed into Greens Lite (and the Greens frankly did a far superior job chasing the same.audience)

 

[Magruder]

Megs Lees started the decline with the GST split, but in 2001 they still had over 7% of the vote. Under Natasha Stott Despoja, despite her youth appeal this crashed to barely 2%

They used to be the centralists who "kept the bastards honest", but under Stott Despoja they morphed into Greens Lite (and the Greens frankly did a far superior job chasing the same.audience)

I think you ignore the changing characteristics of both the polity and the parties.

that which the liberal party threatens to morph into is likely to have zero appeal to citizens concerned enough to organise and win a leafy Lib seat.

I think cover to support a minority Labor government could be found if the alternative is the Current race and gender baiting corrupt environmental vandals That acted as their catalyst

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I think you ignore the changing characteristics of both the polity and the parties.

that which the liberal party threatens to morph into is likely to have zero appeal to citizens concerned enough to organise and win a leafy Lib seat.

I think cover to support a minority Labor government could be found if the alternative is the Current race and gender baiting corrupt environmental vandals That acted as their catalyst

I don't think we are seeing a split in the party.

These teal voters will vote liberal in November (for Vic) and at the next fed election (imo)

 

[Magruder]

I don't think we are seeing a split in the party.

These teal voters will vote liberal in November (for Vic) and at the next fed election (imo)

I actually think that may make a move away from a Morrison Liberal minority government more likely.

 

[Kyptastic]

 

[Vindicater]

Lol.

No change in newspoll.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

GRN 12 would be interesting... a bit higher than 2010, but their vote is a lot more concentrated now than it was then.

Close to 1 in 3 voting against the majors.

 

[pjcrows]

LNP cannot win with a 35 primary. Impossible. Labor can with 36.

It's anyone's game. My money is still on the Libs in a squeaker.

 

[Vindicater]

LNP cannot win with a 35 primary. Impossible. Labor can with 36.

It's anyone's game. My money is still on the Libs in a squeaker.

Labor in a minority with Bandt, Wilkie and Daniells.