Polls Thread Mk III

[Hornberger]

 

[Hornberger]

L-NP closes gap on ALP for second straight week after the first Leaders’ Debate: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%

 

[Father Jack]

According to the AFR, a swing that would translate into a loss of 8 seats if applied uniformly is 'the coalition holding ground'.

 

[Hornberger]

According to the AFR, a swing that would translate into a loss of 8 seats if applied uniformly is 'the coalition holding ground'.

The AFR hired the person who makes the Australian's pie charts.

 

[Pessimistic]

This is going to be a very different country when the Boomers start dying off.

LNP need to get all the dont knows back to equal 2019. As simple as that

At this point in 2019 their primary polling was 2-3% ahead of ALP not a couple behind as now.

Their actual vote improved in the booths by 2.5%. A long way off the 9% they would need now to equal 2019s primary vote. As I said that’s all of the current ‘undecided’

Of course the non 2 party primary will be much wilder this time round, but I suspect palmers message is not cutting through

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Ipsos State breakdowns as relayed by PollBludger (ALP Swing from 2019)

Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns - The Poll Bludger

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

www.pollbludger.net

National: 55-45

NSW: 52-48 (+3.8%)
VIC: 58-42 (+4.9%)
QLD: 50-50 (+8.4%)

WA: 59-41 (+14.6%)
SA: 55-45 (+4.3%)
TAS: 65-35 ( +9.0%)

(Smaller states carry a very large Margin of Error. Morgan are also supplied, but seem absurd)

Even if the national figure cools from 55-45, it paints where they should be capitalising on swing. If they can only pull one seat out of Queensland with a ~5% swing and two seats out of WA off a ~10% swing (Longman, Swan and Pearce,) they don't deserve to win.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Average of all Polls (Sunday)

ALP 53.9 - LNP 46.1

 

[Pessimistic]

I went looking for actual polls and it’s really hard to find. We really are the stupid country,

Take the Kooyong poll. Googles top 20 or so links are to many different news outlets all with the exact same aap article. And they wonder why we don’t pay to get past paywalls. None of it is unique journalism

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Average of all Polls (Sunday)

ALP 53.9 - LNP 46.1

Something isn't right. 5.4% national swing should be a landslide and have them reaching right up the pendulum, but all the anecdotals are that Labor is hoping to scrape by in 1-2 seats per state.

I hope the former is correct and we all get a pleasant shock on the night

 

[Pessimistic]

Something isn't right. 5.4% national swing should be a landslide and have them reaching right up the pendulum, but all the anecdotals are that Labor is hoping to scrape by in 1-2 seats per state.

I hope the former is correct and we all get a pleasant shock on the night

Scott can’t get his limp primary vote back up with all the viagra in canberra

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Something isn't right. 5.4% national swing should be a landslide and have them reaching right up the pendulum, but all the anecdotals are that Labor is hoping to scrape by in 1-2 seats per state.

I hope the former is correct and we all get a pleasant shock on the night

Yep, I think it falls down by assuming a nation wide uniform swing.

It isn't going to be that

I think the 1 or 2 seat prediction is much closer to reality

 

[Magruder]

Ipsos State breakdowns as relayed by PollBludger (ALP Swing from 2019)

Roy Morgan poll and Ipsos state breakdowns - The Poll Bludger

The weekly Roy Morgan poll continues its slow narrowing, while Ipsos breakdowns point to significant Labor swings in the three largest states.

www.pollbludger.net

National: 55-45

NSW: 52-48 (+3.8%)
VIC: 58-42 (+4.9%)
QLD: 50-50 (+8.4%)

WA: 59-41 (+14.6%)
SA: 55-45 (+4.3%)
TAS: 65-35 ( +9.0%)

(Smaller states carry a very large Margin of Error. Morgan are also supplied, but seem absurd)

Even if the national figure cools from 55-45, it paints where they should be capitalising on swing. If they can only pull one seat out of Queensland with a ~5% swing and two seats out of WA off a ~10% swing (Longman, Swan and Pearce,) they don't deserve to win.

If anything resembling these swings eventuates and Labor lose then the electoral system is broken.

 

[DaRick]

Something isn't right. 5.4% national swing should be a landslide and have them reaching right up the pendulum, but all the anecdotals are that Labor is hoping to scrape by in 1-2 seats per state.

I hope the former is correct and we all get a pleasant shock on the night

Swings are never uniform, and there is precedent for getting a positive 2PP and still not winning a majority (1998).

Granted, John Howard had more seats and more credibility than ScoMo does, and the margin was 51-49, but still...

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Yep, I think it falls down by assuming a nation wide uniform swing.

It isn't going to be that

I think the 1 or 2 seat prediction is much closer to reality

Their vote would have to be absolutely piling on in their safe seats (if the rest of the country's only moving a couple of %, ALP-held seats would be needing to be moving by high single digits to get to a national swing figure that big)

Howard got 94 seats off 53.6%
Rudd got 83 seats off 52.7%
Abbott got 90 seats off 53.5%

Even with Greens/indys these days, 53.9% should have them comfortably getting 90+, within striking distance of a few others, and have the LNP dead in the water in at least one state. But if they won every seat that's anecdotally a tight contest right now, they're barely scratching 80 at the moment.


I tend to agree that 1-2 per state seems more likely - I'm preparing for 2PP to be a lot closer than is being polled right now.

 

[Hornberger]

Howard got 94 seats off 53.6%
Rudd got 83 seats off 52.7%
Abbott got 90 seats off 53.5%

Even with Greens/indys these days, 53.9% should have them comfortably getting 90+, within striking distance of a few others, and have the LNP dead in the water in at least one state. But if they won every seat that's anecdotally a tight contest right now, they're barely scratching 80 at the moment.

A national TPP becomes less meaningful as the number of seats where third party candidates are competitive increases. I counted 22 electorates on sportsbet where a third party candidates has odds of $6.00 or less and is either favourite or second favourite to win. That is almost 1/6th of seats where the TPP just doesn't matter.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Something isn't right. 5.4% national swing should be a landslide and have them reaching right up the pendulum, but all the anecdotals are that Labor is hoping to scrape by in 1-2 seats per state.

I hope the former is correct and we all get a pleasant shock on the night

Its unfortunately the non uniform nature of the swing

 

[Hornberger]

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15 – The Poll Bludger

www.pollbludger.net

 

[Kyptastic]

That Green’s vote seems abnormally high

Also, Resolve has historically been favourable to the coalition in two party preferred terms. If the same trends play out in Newspoll, you’re probably looking at 55-45 there

 

[Gough]

That Green’s vote seems abnormally high

Progressives in both parties fracturing. If there's no independent option in your seat the Greens are a natural home even if it's only temporary.

 

[Hornberger]

That Green’s vote seems abnormally high

Greens tend to average around 12%, the poll has a 3% margin of error. The difference between 12% and 15% is not statistically significant.

 

[Hornberger]

 

[Pessimistic]

Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor; Resolve Strategic: Coalition 33, Labor 34, Greens 15 – The Poll Bludger

www.pollbludger.net

Even with error margin. Coalition primary flatlining. Maybe why scomo is sandbagging (if the local member lets him that is)

Is that the narrative now?

 

[Number37]

Even with error margin. Coalition primary flatlining. Maybe why scomo is sandbagging (if the local member lets him that is)

Is that the narrative now?

The media have spun the narrative that Scummo has some brainy scheme to victory via winning in obscure places...

That is pure unadulterated bullshit.
The truth is Scummo is toxic. Nobody wants him in their campaign.
There is no grand road to victory via winning the anti-trans/war with china vote.

3 weeks in what have they done?
Bag Labor & Pork Barrel. That's it.

 

[Kyptastic]

By comparison, three weeks out from the 2019 election, Newspoll was 51 - 49 Labor

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-narrows-gap-on-labor-as-poll-approaches/news-story/ac86e995e85f02695df961e2c50cf1b8

 

[Pessimistic]

By comparison, three weeks out from the 2019 election, Newspoll was 51 - 49 Labor

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/coalition-narrows-gap-on-labor-as-poll-approaches/news-story/ac86e995e85f02695df961e2c50cf1b8

And a 1-4% primary lead over labor for most of the campaign depending which poll you look at: which firmed by 2-4% in the actual poll 8% over labor delivering a one seat majority.

I’m reading the best they can do this time is to match labor in primaries (in the actual vote), which may be the hung parliament scenario as the non TP primaries could be all over the place, plenty of three ways with greens independents

Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org