Polls Thread Mk III

[Fire]

Some people who are technically boomers left school in the mid seventies with the oil crash and globalisation (manufacturing jobs going to emerging economies) not to mention thatcher and reagan

There's never much of a point to focus individuals or subgroups when discussing demographic trends.

Everyone knows demographics are not monoliths.

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[Hornberger]

Polling favours independent in Goldstein

New polling suggests the Victorian seat of Goldstein will swing away from the federal coalition to independent Zoe...

www.illawarramercury.com.au

The Australia Institute found the former journalist leads Liberal Tim Wilson by 62 per cent to 38 per cent on a two-candidate preferred basis.

 

[Pessimistic]

Itd be interesting to estimate how much tactical voting among voters in these teal seats is going on

 

[Pessimistic]

There's never much of a point to focus individuals or subgroups when discussing demographic trends.

Everyone knows demographics are not monoliths.

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A bit like decades. I’ve always thought in each decade the defining character of the decade is more around the year ending in 0 than the one ending in 5

 

[Fire]

A bit like decades. I’ve always thought in each decade the defining character of the decade is more around the year ending in 0 than the one ending in 5

Maybe. But then wouldn't mullets be conaidered a 90s thing even though they only survived a couple of years into it?

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[Hank Scorpion]

State-by-state aggregation of Resolve Strategic over the past month:

NSW
L/NP: 33 (-10)
ALP: 38 (+3)
GRN: 11 (+2)

VIC
L/NP: 32 (-7)
ALP: 34 (-3)
GRN: 14 (+2)

QLD
LNP: 37 (-7)
ALP: 29 (+2)
GRN: 16(!) (+6)

Voters turn against Coalition in key states but Labor still weak in Queensland

Voters in the nation’s three biggest states have turned against the Coalition since the 2019 election, but Labor has not made up the ground.

www.theage.com.au

NSW numbers might see ALP in the hunt beyond Reid and Robertson.

I'd find GRN 16 in QLD hard to credit, but even if it's nudged down to ~13, and predictably most of the gain in SEQ - they should be cleaning up Griffith/Brisbane/Ryan.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

State-by-state aggregation of Resolve Strategic over the past month:

NSW
L/NP: 33 (-10)
ALP: 38 (+3)
GRN: 11 (+2)

VIC
L/NP: 32 (-7)
ALP: 34 (-3)
GRN: 14 (+2)

QLD
LNP: 37 (-7)
ALP: 29 (+2)
GRN: 16(!) (+6)

Voters turn against Coalition in key states but Labor still weak in Queensland

Voters in the nation’s three biggest states have turned against the Coalition since the 2019 election, but Labor has not made up the ground.

www.theage.com.au

NSW numbers might see ALP in the hunt beyond Reid and Robertson.

I'd find GRN 16 in QLD hard to credit, but even if it's nudged down to ~13, and predictably most of the gain in SEQ - they should be cleaning up Griffith/Brisbane/Ryan.

Green internal polling in Qld is also at 16%

 

[Fire]

State-by-state aggregation of Resolve Strategic over the past month:

NSW
L/NP: 33 (-10)
ALP: 38 (+3)
GRN: 11 (+2)

VIC
L/NP: 32 (-7)
ALP: 34 (-3)
GRN: 14 (+2)

QLD
LNP: 37 (-7)
ALP: 29 (+2)
GRN: 16(!) (+6)

Voters turn against Coalition in key states but Labor still weak in Queensland

Voters in the nation’s three biggest states have turned against the Coalition since the 2019 election, but Labor has not made up the ground.

www.theage.com.au

NSW numbers might see ALP in the hunt beyond Reid and Robertson.

I'd find GRN 16 in QLD hard to credit, but even if it's nudged down to ~13, and predictably most of the gain in SEQ - they should be cleaning up Griffith/Brisbane/Ryan.

Thise numbers look a little sus tbh. NSW as anti lib as VIC? ALP and Libs effectively neck and neck in VIC? Greens most popular state is QLD? Must be dealing with wide margin of errors.

Still, there doesnt seem to be any polls coming in that are margining of error in the libs favour.

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[Fire]

Actually just read the article and **** me.

“On these numbers, Labor will gain a two-party preferred swing to them in all states, but that will be just as much a result of the preferences they gain from minor parties like the Greens than direct gains from the Coalition,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.
“Nevertheless, that’s our voting system and it may well allow Labor to secure enough seats.

I have never seen the concept of one party winning government because it got the most votes expressed in such a lamentable framing.

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[Pessimistic]

Actually just read the article and fu** me.

“On these numbers, Labor will gain a two-party preferred swing to them in all states, but that will be just as much a result of the preferences they gain from minor parties like the Greens than direct gains from the Coalition,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.
“Nevertheless, that’s our voting system and it may well allow Labor to secure enough seats.

I have never seen the concept of one party winning government because it got the most votes expressed in such a lamentable framing.

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And smoothing over the fact that the coalition is a coalition of 5 parties which just don’t run against each other in the same seat

 

[Hornberger]

Morrison pledges $20m for tourism; Shorten tests positive as 44 Covid deaths recorded – as it happened

Scott Morrison announces tourism package in Perth and Anthony Albanese pledges funding for manufacturing jobs in Tasmania

www.theguardian.com

Mackeller: The polling, undertaken by Ucomms last week after Scamps’s launch, shows Falinski’s primary vote at 32% with Scamps at 31.2%. With preference flows from Labor and the Greens, Scamps, a local GP, would surge ahead of Falinski.

Boothby and ACT Senate polls - The Poll Bludger

Labor looking good in Boothby, a promising result for ACT Senate independent David Pocock, and a quick look at today's upper house elections in Tasmania.

www.pollbludger.net

Boothby: The Advertiser reports a uComms poll for the SA Forest Products Association finds Labor with a 55-45 lead in the Adelaide seat of Boothby, held by the Liberals on a margin of 1.4%

ACT Senate: A Redbridge poll of the Australian Capital Territory Senate race for Climate 200 had Labor Senator Katy Gallagher on 27% (down from 39.3% in 2019), Liberal Senator Zed Seselja on 25% (down from 32.4%), independent David Pocock on 21%, the Greens on 11% (down from 17.7%), independent Kim Rubenstein on 6% and the United Australia Party on 6% (up from 2.3%).

 

[Pessimistic]

Those three way contests are must-watch on polling night…and the days after

 

[Kyptastic]

Seat polls aren't always inaccurate either. This one from 2019 pretty much preficted the primary swing away for Abbott a month out from election date:

'Diabolically bad' poll: Abbott facing 12 per cent swing to lose seat

Internal polling by the Liberals show the former PM is in trouble to remain Warringah MP but that the party is eyeing wins elsewhere in NSW

www.smh.com.au

 

[moistie]

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk

 

[Forward Press]

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Those numbers two weeks out from an election are unreal.

Sub-30 primary vote, behind 14 in the 2PP - it points to a landslide not seen since 1975.

What's the reliability of an Ipsos poll?

 

[pjcrows]

LNP primary simply won't be that low on the day. It's an outlier.

 

[DaRick]

Those numbers two weeks out from an election are unreal.

Sub-30 primary vote, behind 14 in the 2PP - it points to a landslide not seen since 1975.

What's the reliability of an Ipsos poll?

Favours ALP, but not as much as Roy Morgan normally.

 

[Pessimistic]

LNP primary simply won't be that low on the day. It's an outlier.

It is a long way from the primary on Election Day 2019. It’s gonna be a miracle on steroids

 

[Kyptastic]

Fat lady is getting warmed up

 

[Vindicater]

LNP primary simply won't be that low on the day. It's an outlier.

The 29 number does not include the undecided which will boost it up abit.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Just cannot believe those numbers

Too far out for me

 

[Number37]

Newscum spinning the line that Scummo is still preferred PM 44-42.
The incumbent usually leads by 15 points.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Morgan Poll (May 2 - May 8)

54.5% ALP (+0.5%)
45.5% LNP (-0.5%)

 

[Hornberger]

ALP 54.5% leads the L-NP 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis as early voting begins this week - Roy Morgan Research

www.roymorgan.com

Roy Morgan reporting a swing to the ALP on primary vote, but a small swing to the LNP on 2PP as the result of a methodology change from using stated preferences to relying on preference flows from the 2019 election.

 

[Vindicater]

Morgan Poll (May 2 - May 8)

54.5% ALP (+0.5%)
45.5% LNP (-0.5%)

Other way round. ALP dropped 0.5% on 2PP.

They did go up on their primary though.