Polls Thread Mk III

[Johnny Bananas]

Nope. I live in Carindale, usually a safe liberal seat.

Yeah, you're right in the bible belt. The Carindale - Belmont - Gumdale area is what keeps Bonner blue. No coincidence that Citipointe is in that area. The rest of the seat is pretty even, so it'd be a marginal seat if not for the bible belt.

At least your Senate vote has an impact. It's annoying if you live in a safe seat at Queensland state elections, as the lack of an upper house means your vote is pretty meaningless.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Nope. I live in Carindale, usually a safe liberal seat.

Bonner has Kim Prior for The New Liberals running. are they getting any traction in QLD like "Voices of..." are in Sydney and Melbourne?

 

[DaRick]

FYI I come from a die hard Union and Labor family (dad was a Union secretary before he retired).

My parents were small a-ALP voters up until 2004 (both voted for Beattie twice and Beazley once) but Sky News and Fox News have turned them into RWNJs. They can't tell the difference between local, state and federal elections anymore. Very sad.

I haven't voted LNP since the unholy duo of Newman/Abbott. I've voted LNP once at federal level and twice at state level (Springborg IMO would have been a do-nothing Premier with a fairly short shelf life, but he would have spared us Campbell Newman's active destructiveness, and the ALP state government by 2009 was showing open signs of incompetence and corruption).

LNP at local level I have no real problem with, and my federal LNP MP is a nice, albeit uncharismatic, guy who is responsive and honours his promises where possible. The problem is that he's effectively Dutton-lite in terms of policy.

I don't doubt your bonafides, and you don't have to justify them. I was merely making some points about ScoMo. One old friend of mine lives in Fortitude Valley and is something of a hipster - he and his friends loathe ScoMo.

According to dad, the rank and file up here are big Albo supporters. They wanted him instead Shorten at the previous election.

Me, I was ostracised when I voted for Howard. Mostly vote Green now. Would have stuck with Turnbull if they had kept him.

But give me a good strong independent, like what we might see in NSW.

Yeah, Shorten had baggage up here for knifing a Queenslander in Rudd. Albo doesn't, and has apparently taken a more grassroots approach (talking to farmers and miners individually, ensuring them that their jobs wouldn't be under threat) in place of Shorten's more hands-off approach to QLD.

Your inclinations do seem a little Tree Tory-ish. Not a critique; just an observation. Mine are more economically leftist with some mild socon traits. I'm not actually an atheist or even really agnostic, but I've always detested ON and their ilk.

So let me get this right

You come from a ALP/Union family
You voted Howard, then voted Green, but you wanted Turnbull, but now you would like an Independent?

Is is fair to say you just stagger through life not knowing what the hell it is all about?

To be fair, we've all been directionless at times.

 

[DaRick]

Bonner has Kim Prior for The New Liberals running. are they getting any traction in QLD like "Voices of..." are in Sydney and Melbourne?

No.

The 'Voices Of' movement here has only appeared in Ryan, and that's nascent compared to VIC. I suspect that such movements will be more visible in Brisbane come 2025, especially if the LNP still hold Ryan/Brisbane and ScoMo is still in charge.

 

[Vindicater]

So let me get this right

You come from a ALP/Union family
You voted Howard, then voted Green, but you wanted Turnbull, but now you would like an Independent?

Is is fair to say you just stagger through life not knowing what the hell it is all about?

I can actually see this being a logical voting progression.

Die hard ALP family so Howard as his first vote was a protest vote. (18 or 19 year old)

Then he realised how far right Howard was so he swung hard the other way to the greens as a young adult (21-22 year old)

Turnbull as a moderate liberal somewhere in the middle as they became more aware of themsevles as a voter.

Now shifting to an independent who is likely a moderate liberal because they are sumilar to Turnbull.

 

[Forward Press]

As a lifelong leftie I can easily see how one on that side of the spectrum can opt for Turnbull - although he was the leader of the Liberal Party, there was plenty of evidence of actual intelligence (look at his Parliamentary speeches as an example) and support for socially progressive causes such as republicanism, whilst displaying traditional economically conservative values.

I can respect a leader like that, for sure. Too bad the Liberal Party didn't as they have now pivoted hard to the right.

It's a bit similar to Angela Merkel - although she was the head of the Christian party in Germany which is decidedly right wing, and opposed things like same sex marriage, she is near universally recognised as one of Germany's finest chancellors in history that listened to the people (eg she may have opposed SSM, but did not politicise the issue like the plebiscite here and left it to their parliament to legalise it swiftly).

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I can actually see this being a logical voting progression.

Die hard ALP family so Howard as his first vote was a protest vote. (18 or 19 year old)

Then he realised how far right Howard was so he swung hard the other way to the greens as a young adult (21-22 year old)

Turnbull as a moderate liberal somewhere in the middle as they became more aware of themsevles as a voter.

Now shifting to an independent who is likely a moderate liberal because they are sumilar to Turnbull.

Or briztoon just took the HTV card off the hottest looking volunteer

 

[briztoon]

Bonner has Kim Prior for The New Liberals running. are they getting any traction in QLD like "Voices of..." are in Sydney and Melbourne?

Who?

I’ve actually no idea who The New Liberals are. Will just assume they are one step short of being One Nation.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Who?

I’ve actually no idea who The New Liberals are. Will just assume they are one step short of being One Nation.

They are supposed to be the teal independents up your way (moderate ex liberals)

 

[Vindicater]

Who?

I’ve actually no idea who The New Liberals are. Will just assume they are one step short of being One Nation.

They are basically what Labor should be (centre left)

 

[briztoon]

My parents were small a-ALP voters up until 2004 (both voted for Beattie twice and Beazley once) but Sky News and Fox News have turned them into RWNJs. They can't tell the difference between local, state and federal elections anymore. Very sad.

I haven't voted LNP since the unholy duo of Newman/Abbott. I've voted LNP once at federal level and twice at state level (Springborg IMO would have been a do-nothing Premier with a fairly short shelf life, but he would have spared us Campbell Newman's active destructiveness, and the ALP state government by 2009 was showing open signs of incompetence and corruption).

LNP at local level I have no real problem with, and my federal LNP MP is a nice, albeit uncharismatic, guy who is responsive and honours his promises where possible. The problem is that he's effectively Dutton-lite in terms of policy.

I don't doubt your bonafides, and you don't have to justify them. I was merely making some points about ScoMo. One old friend of mine lives in Fortitude Valley and is something of a hipster - he and his friends loathe ScoMo.



Yeah, Shorten had baggage up here for knifing a Queenslander in Rudd. Albo doesn't, and has apparently taken a more grassroots approach (talking to farmers and miners individually, ensuring them that their jobs wouldn't be under threat) in place of Shorten's more hands-off approach to QLD.

Your inclinations do seem a little Tree Tory-ish. Not a critique; just an observation. Mine are more economically leftist with some mild socon traits. I'm not actually an atheist or even really agnostic, but I've always detested ON and their ilk.



To be fair, we've all been directionless at times.

I rarely get involved in anything more than work place lunch time discussions. I’m not big on politics, and don’t follow it deeply.

I’m just stuck in QT with the ‘vid atm, and was having a rough night (fyi I’m in Ho Chi Minh and 3 hours behind QLD time).

I’ve seen enough corruption, stand over tactics, etc from within the Union/Labor movement to be somewhat turned off by them.

And seeing Labor/Albo ignore a local candidate that was almost a lock to win her seat, and parachute in a WASP yank, and proclaim her as a model example of a successful immigrant really p!ssed me off.


Personally I’d prefer to vote for the party that has the better/stronger national economic policies. And that’s usually the Liberals.

But I hate the right wing racist and/or religious nutters that dominate the Liberal party atm.

And I’m also very much a city tree hugger, that believes it’s worth going through economic pain to “save the planet”.

So voting Green is somewhat of a (mostly pointless) protest vote.

 

[briztoon]

I can actually see this being a logical voting progression.

Die hard ALP family so Howard as his first vote was a protest vote. (18 or 19 year old)

Then he realised how far right Howard was so he swung hard the other way to the greens as a young adult (21-22 year old)

Turnbull as a moderate liberal somewhere in the middle as they became more aware of themsevles as a voter.

Now shifting to an independent who is likely a moderate liberal because they are sumilar to Turnbull.

Not quite. I voted Howard in his second term (and third term), when I was late 20’s (and early 30’s)

Went back to Labor until Turnbull.

Voting Liberal wasn’t a protest vote. It was an economic vote for me.

But yeah, give me a Turnbullesque independent.

 

[briztoon]

Or briztoon just took the HTC off the hottest looking volunteer

I married her.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I haven't voted LNP since the unholy duo of Newman/Abbott.

You voted for both of those schmucks? You, who has so many fine takes on political analysis? I'm flabbergasted!

LNP at local level I have no real problem with

Are you in BCC or MBRC? Schrinner, Lord Mayor of Brisbane, is not as bad as Newman was (it's hard to be), but he's cut from a similar cloth. Like Newman, he's an ideologue who wastes money on unnecessary infrastructure to leave a "legacy", while routinely allowing property developers to exceed the height limits on the agreed Neighbourhood Plan.

The real tragedy of Newman is that people didn't pay attention to his numerous disasters as Lord Mayor (the Clem Jones Tunnel being the most obvious example), instead they fell for the "Can Do" marketing slogan and voted for him to become Premier. The subsequent epic fail was almost inevitable.

Personally I’d prefer to vote for the party that has the better/stronger national economic policies. And that’s usually the Liberals.

Is it? I'd suggest the "Liberals are better economic managers" meme is a misleading PR slogan on par with "Can Do" Newman. Swan got voted the world's greatest treasurer by his peers, whereas Costello sent the budget into structural deficit, and the past 9 years have not been impressive.

So voting Green is somewhat of a (mostly pointless) protest vote.

Every first preference vote you give to a party nets them a small amount of money. This doesn't matter to the two major parties, whose corporate donations dwarf anything they receive from the AEC, but it matters to any minor parties, including the Greens. Giving them your first preference is doing them some good even if they're not about to win in your electorate anytime soon.

 

[Elroo]

Who?

I’ve actually no idea who The New Liberals are. Will just assume they are one step short of being One Nation.

Tim Wilson used to run the line that he was a "New Liberal". As soon as the election was over he pretty much dropped that and everything else and reverted back to being an IPA stooge.

 

[DaRick]

I rarely get involved in anything more than work place lunch time discussions. I’m not big on politics, and don’t follow it deeply.

I’m just stuck in QT with the ‘vid atm, and was having a rough night (fyi I’m in Ho Chi Minh and 3 hours behind QLD time).

I’ve seen enough corruption, stand over tactics, etc from within the Union/Labor movement to be somewhat turned off by them.

Like all large organisations, unions have their unseemly elements.

Regrettably, many small businesses aren't particularly well-run or managed either.

I sincerely hope you haven't been stranded overseas at any point over the last couple of years.

And seeing Labor/Albo ignore a local candidate that was almost a lock to win her seat, and parachute in a WASP yank, and proclaim her as a model example of a successful immigrant really p!ssed me off.


Personally I’d prefer to vote for the party that has the better/stronger national economic policies. And that’s usually the Liberals.

But I hate the right wing racist and/or religious nutters that dominate the Liberal party atm.

And I’m also very much a city tree hugger, that believes it’s worth going through economic pain to “save the planet”.

So voting Green is somewhat of a (mostly pointless) protest vote.

I see why this perception exists - the last pre-2020 recession was under an ALP government and the economy was booming during the Howard-era.

However, I think Howard/Costello were overrated in that regard - they benefited greatly from an iron ore/coal boom and were pretty profligate. They largely used said boom to buy middle-class votes, which was good politics but bad over the longer run, because they neglected infrastructure and only developed a half-assed sovereign fund towards the end of their last term.

To be fair, Rudd/Swan were also helped by said boom, but they had far trickier global economic conditions to deal with and Australia averted recession under their watch.

Unfortunately, the post-2013 LNP can't even pass legislation, and if you can't do that you're not going to do much else right, and that includes economic management. Plus the economy has been visibly crappy under ScoMo's watch.

Not all of that is his fault - Australians would have given him a free pass for the 2020 recession because that was clearly caused by factors outside of his control, plus he mitigated it with JobKeeper/JobSeeker. The same is true for high inflation + oil prices, but I think he'll be hurt by that anyway due to his unpopularity and the impact of both on working families.

That said, his unpopularity has been exacerbated by his blunders after 2020 - both The Fry/ScoMo didn't raise JobSeeker by enough and withdrew JobKeeper too soon, only reinstating it to a limited degree during the Delta slump in H2 2021 and not at all during the OMI-shock in Q1 2022. Plus JobMaker, while a good idea in concept (youth unemployment is a real problem), was poorly executed and has had minimal impact.

I have no time for ON, and even as a child I thought that Pauline was a lunatic.

You voted for both of those schmucks? You, who has so many fine takes on political analysis? I'm flabbergasted!


Are you in BCC or MBRC? Schrinner, Lord Mayor of Brisbane, is not as bad as Newman was (it's hard to be), but he's cut from a similar cloth. Like Newman, he's an ideologue who wastes money on unnecessary infrastructure to leave a "legacy", while routinely allowing property developers to exceed the height limits on the agreed Neighbourhood Plan.

The real tragedy of Newman is that people didn't pay attention to his numerous disasters as Lord Mayor (the Clem Jones Tunnel being the most obvious example), instead they fell for the "Can Do" marketing slogan and voted for him to become Premier. The subsequent epic fail was almost inevitable.

RE the local QLD LNP, I'm in the BCC, but my ward is safe LNP so it makes no real difference, most of the nutters are in the state/federal branches and their remit, thankfully, is very limited. All they need to do is to maintain libraries/parks, sound positive, and build stuff, and the local QLD LNP can do that if nothing else. Even Campbell himself could do it.

He did have an authoritarian streak stemming from his military days, but as Lord Mayor he was apparently relatively moderate. He became drunk with power after being elected Premier - talk about epitomising the 'Peter Principle'.

In 2012/13, I was around 23 and wasn't as well-informed about politics. Plus the Bligh government by 2012 had become openly incompetent (Stephen Robertson) or corrupt (Gordan Nuttall) and deserved to be voted out. TBH, I felt they had passed their use-by date by 2009. Nuttall had a particular impact on my perceptions because he was the MP for Sandgate.

The issue with the ALP by 2013 is that they were openly tearing themselves apart - not unlike what the LNP are doing right now - and need a spell in opposition to sort things out. Also, while I knew that Tony Abbott was gaffe-prone and never really trusted him (steering clear in 2010), he campaigned as a comparative moderate (the 'no cuts' pledge) and, not being all that well-informed politically, I was unaware of his pre-2007 history.

The result was that two very flawed governments were replaced with horrible alternatives. I made a point of 'thanking' Newman for his service in 2015 accordingly, and I voted ALP in 2016 because I saw signs that Turnbull's government, while not as insane as Abbott's, was also not going to be particularly impressive. Despite being much less popular, Shorten himself had outwitted Turnbull during the campaign proper (not having a proper response to Shorten's MediScare campaign), which brought Turnbull's political acumen into question for mine. Lo and behold, Shorten practically shredded his majority, and Turnbull was thus reduced to being an impotent triangulator who faced resentment from within his own ranks for nearly blowing a strong majority.

 

[briztoon]

Like all large organisations, unions have their unseemly elements.

Regrettably, many small businesses aren't particularly well-run or managed either.

I sincerely hope you haven't been stranded overseas at any point over the last couple of years.



I see why this perception exists - the last pre-2020 recession was under an ALP government and the economy was booming during the Howard-era.

However, I think Howard/Costello were overrated in that regard - they benefited greatly from an iron ore/coal boom and were pretty profligate. They largely used said boom to buy middle-class votes, which was good politics but bad over the longer run, because they neglected infrastructure and only developed a half-assed sovereign fund towards the end of their last term.

To be fair, Rudd/Swan were also helped by said boom, but they had far trickier global economic conditions to deal with and Australia averted recession under their watch.

Unfortunately, the post-2013 LNP can't even pass legislation, and if you can't do that you're not going to do much else right, and that includes economic management. Plus the economy has been visibly crappy under ScoMo's watch.

Not all of that is his fault - Australians would have given him a free pass for the 2020 recession because that was clearly caused by factors outside of his control, plus he mitigated it with JobKeeper/JobSeeker. The same is true for high inflation + oil prices, but I think he'll be hurt by that anyway due to his unpopularity and the impact of both on working families.

That said, his unpopularity has been exacerbated by his blunders after 2020 - both The Fry/ScoMo didn't raise JobSeeker by enough and withdrew JobKeeper too soon, only reinstating it to a limited degree during the Delta slump in H2 2021 and not at all during the OMI-shock in Q1 2022. Plus JobMaker, while a good idea in concept (youth unemployment is a real problem), was poorly executed and has had minimal impact.

I have no time for ON, and even as a child I thought that Pauline was a lunatic.



RE the local QLD LNP, I'm in the BCC, but my ward is safe LNP so it makes no real difference, most of the nutters are in the state/federal branches and their remit, thankfully, is very limited. All they need to do is to maintain libraries/parks, sound positive, and build stuff, and the local QLD LNP can do that if nothing else. Even Campbell himself could do it.

He did have an authoritarian streak stemming from his military days, but as Lord Mayor he was apparently relatively moderate. He became drunk with power after being elected Premier - talk about epitomising the 'Peter Principle'.

In 2012/13, I was around 23 and wasn't as well-informed about politics. Plus the Bligh government by 2012 had become openly incompetent (Stephen Robertson) or corrupt (Gordan Nuttall) and deserved to be voted out. TBH, I felt they had passed their use-by date by 2009. Nuttall had a particular impact on my perceptions because he was the MP for Sandgate.

The issue with the ALP by 2013 is that they were openly tearing themselves apart - not unlike what the LNP are doing right now - and need a spell in opposition to sort things out. Also, while I knew that Tony Abbott was gaffe-prone and never really trusted him (steering clear in 2010), he campaigned as a comparative moderate (the 'no cuts' pledge) and, not being all that well-informed politically, I was unaware of his pre-2007 history.

The result was that two very flawed governments were replaced with horrible alternatives. I made a point of 'thanking' Newman for his service in 2015 accordingly, and I voted ALP in 2016 because I saw signs that Turnbull's government, while not as insane as Abbott's, was also not going to be particularly impressive. Despite being much less popular, Shorten himself had outwitted Turnbull during the campaign proper (not having a proper response to Shorten's MediScare campaign), which brought Turnbull's political acumen into question for mine. Lo and behold, Shorten practically shredded his majority, and Turnbull was thus reduced to being an impotent triangulator who faced resentment from within his own ranks for nearly blowing a strong majority.

What’s anyone being stranded overseas got to do with the discussion?

I like reading peoples opinions otherwise.

 

[DaRick]

What’s anyone being stranded overseas got to do with the discussion?

I like reading peoples opinions otherwise.

Nothing; I just don't like the idea that you might have been stranded overseas for much of the past 2 years. I assume that's not the case, and I hope that my assumption is correct.

That would have been very frightening and unpredictable ("how can I get enough money to get home when there are no jobs? Will there be enough flights to go back?").

 

[briztoon]

Currently visiting family in Vietnam. And now in QT, because we all have covid. Omicron only just taking a hold here.

Nothing; I just don't like the idea that you might have been stranded overseas for much of the past 2 years. I assume that's not the case, and I hope that my assumption is correct.

That would have been very frightening and unpredictable ("how can I get enough money to get home when there are no jobs? Will there be enough flights to go back?").

And just an FYI. Vietnam might have a communist ruling party, but it’s definitely not a communist country or economy. Not easy to explain, my mother in law can explain it much better.

One frustrating thing though is the idealisation of foreign (white) workers. I could earn a 3 or 4 times higher income than my wife, simply for being white Australian, even though my wife is way (way, way) more educated, capable and competent than me.

 

[Vindicater]

Some interesting internal polling is doing the rounds showing Goldstein having a massive seing against Tim Wilson.

As in record breaking swing.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Some interesting internal polling is doing the rounds showing Goldstein having a massive seing against Tim Wilson.

As in record breaking swing.

speaking to my sister, he's a rude prick on the pavement too

grassroots campaigning may work against him

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[DaRick]

Currently visiting family in Vietnam. And now in QT, because we all have covid. Omicron only just taking a hold here.

I'm honestly sorry to hear that. I sincerely hope that you're coping OK.

And just an FYI. Vietnam might have a communist ruling party, but it’s definitely not a communist country or economy. Not easy to explain, my mother in law can explain it much better.

From what I understand, they're basically China-lite, which is ironic because they've historically gotten along pretty poorly. Slightly more liberal socially, but ultimately an authoritarian state which has implemented state-managed capitalism while maintaining a Communist veneer.

I have spoken to a number of Vietnamese (mostly Southerners, but also a couple of Northerners) and gleaned my impression that way.

As a country, they have a lot of potential. They have a large, determined and relatively intelligent population.

One frustrating thing though is the idealisation of foreign (white) workers. I could earn a 3 or 4 times higher income than my wife, simply for being white Australian, even though my wife is way (way, way) more educated, capable and competent than me.

That's regrettably something you see echoed elsewhere, including places like Saudi Arabia. Part of it might be some sort of racial idealisation, but I think a lot of it comes down to the West's, and particularly the Anglosphere's, reputation as being world-leading. So they assume their workers warrant being paid more.

Plus, I suspect that the Vietnamese are pragmatic enough to understand that Westerners won't come to Vietnam to work for peanuts.

 

[briztoon]

From what I understand, they're basically China-lite, which is ironic because they've historically gotten along pretty poorly. Slightly more liberal socially, but ultimately an authoritarian state which has implemented state-managed capitalism while maintaining a Communist veneer.

I have spoken to a number of Vietnamese (mostly Southerners, but also a couple of Northerners) and gleaned my impression that way.

As a country, they have a lot of potential. They have a large, determined and relatively intelligent population.

On the bolded, that’s so far from the reality. The leadership of the communist party here is very different to that of Chinas.

And yes, most here dislike China, but due to sharing a border, understand the need for pragmatism and maintain neutrality (least they end up like Ukraine).

Much more liberal, and way less authoritarian.

However, sadly the belief of many Australian Vietnamese who fled Vietnam during or post the war, and haven’t been back is that Vietnam is a back water country under a military dictatorship.

I don’t know how I can demonstrate that to you.

Our daughter holds dual passports. China does not allow dual passports.

As my mother in law says, if they had elections here, you’d see similar scenes on the streets at election time, as we see in other SEA nations. Opposition party forces openly fighting on the streets and people dying.

 

[briztoon]

I'm honestly sorry to hear that. I sincerely hope that you're coping OK.



From what I understand, they're basically China-lite, which is ironic because they've historically gotten along pretty poorly. Slightly more liberal socially, but ultimately an authoritarian state which has implemented state-managed capitalism while maintaining a Communist veneer.

I have spoken to a number of Vietnamese (mostly Southerners, but also a couple of Northerners) and gleaned my impression that way.

As a country, they have a lot of potential. They have a large, determined and relatively intelligent population.



That's regrettably something you see echoed elsewhere, including places like Saudi Arabia. Part of it might be some sort of racial idealisation, but I think a lot of it comes down to the West's, and particularly the Anglosphere's, reputation as being world-leading. So they assume their workers warrant being paid more.

Plus, I suspect that the Vietnamese are pragmatic enough to understand that Westerners won't come to Vietnam to work for peanuts.

Also, we’re fine. Most of my colds are worse than this, just a persistent cough. Our daughter had a mild fever for 48 hours, and that was it for her. Wife had/has a lot of body aches and a weeping eye, but she’s a hard/bad ass and isn’t a sook like me.