Polls Thread Mk III

[QuietB]

True, but its pretty bad when the Undecided get a higher percentage than the Opposition Leader

This is becoming existential for the LNP.

They probably get wiped out in Vic later this year, they are a rabble in NSW and there is not a single viable alternative to Dutton federally.

Add to this the branches are stacked with the Christian Right and cookers and the party is run from the outer suburbs. So the likelihood of attracting good candidates is next to zero.

 

[moistie]

Sent from my SM-G990E using Tapatalk

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Hornberger]

Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales - The Poll Bludger

A new pollster on the block produces a set of New South Wales state two-party numbers that agree with last month's Newspoll.

www.pollbludger.net

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Freshwater Strategy: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales - The Poll Bludger

A new pollster on the block produces a set of New South Wales state two-party numbers that agree with last month's Newspoll.

www.pollbludger.net

Wow that is really big in a state like NSW

Those are Neville Wran type figures

 

[Hornberger]

Wow that is really big in a state like NSW

Those are Neville Wran type figures

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales - The Poll Bludger

Six months out from the election, polls from Newspoll and Resolve Strategic find Labor opening up an election-winning lead in New South Wales.

www.pollbludger.net

Same as the Newspoll from a month ago.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Resolve Poll Vic Election 2PP

ALP 59
Lib 41

Preferred Premier

Andrews 49
Guy 29

 

[peetoo]

The national are pretty safe in their seats. Looking forward to them calling the shots in the joint party room

 

[Todman]

GhostWhoVotes Nov 5, 2023

#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (-2) L/NP 48 (+2) #auspol


#Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (-5) Dutton 36 (+5) #auspol


#Newspoll Dutton: Approve 37 (+2) Disapprove 50 (-3) #auspol


#Newspoll Albanese: Approve 42 (-4) Disapprove 52 (+6) #auspol


#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: ALP 35 (-1) L/NP 37 (+2) GRN 12 (0) ON 6 (0) #auspol

​

 

[Vindicater]

GhostWhoVotes Nov 5, 2023

#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 (-2) L/NP 48 (+2) #auspol


#Newspoll Preferred PM: Albanese 46 (-5) Dutton 36 (+5) #auspol


#Newspoll Dutton: Approve 37 (+2) Disapprove 50 (-3) #auspol


#Newspoll Albanese: Approve 42 (-4) Disapprove 52 (+6) #auspol


#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: ALP 35 (-1) L/NP 37 (+2) GRN 12 (0) ON 6 (0) #auspol

​

This is where it will sit I reckon for the next few months. Around 52-48.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

This is where it will sit I reckon for the next few months. Around 52-48.

If that's as bad as it gets for Albo than he's fine. This is the dead cat bounce for Spud head after the referendum and the Libs. In 3-4 months time it will increase I rekon back to 53-47 or 54-46 again. Has done nothing to warrant being as close as he is and he's personal polling reflects the backlash over the referendum. Plain and simple.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

How on earth in a normal world he's disapproval rating is lower than Albo's. Is absolutely hilarious to me. People need to watch how this bloke performs in QT. He gets smashed for being a negative tosser and reminded about how corrupt he is and how poorly he ran any portfolio he was in charge with. People need to start educating themselves if they want to properly understand the grievances they seem to have with Albo. Being lazy isn't an excuse.

 

[Cmarsh]

Peter Dutton has plenty to smile about as major poll gives him the lead

It's not that long ago that reports of Peter Dutton's premature death as opposition leader were being greatly exaggerated. Now he's suddenly found himself leading Labor for the first time.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Vindicater]

I just don't see a path for victory this year for Dutton.

Reckon we are going to a Labor minority government however which I think is good.

 

[Blue1980]

I just don't see a path for victory this year for Dutton.

Reckon we are going to a Labor minority government however which I think is good.

With preferential voting it just depends how many flip from ALP to LNP if they are unhappy or ALP to Greens-further left party/independent.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

People need to watch how this bloke performs in QT

Nobody watches QT (for good reason) and the commercial channels cherry pick what they do show on the news.

 

[Fire]

LNP primary vote is now below ON. I doubt that there would be too many seats that have more preferences flow to ON over LNP, but this is still a pretty dire situation for them. If ever there was a time for a team party to set up, now is it. The walls are down.

 

[peetoo]

LNP primary vote is now below ON. I doubt that there would be too many seats that have more preferences flow to ON over LNP, but this is still a pretty dire situation for them. If ever there was a time for a team party to set up, now is it. The walls are down.

I wonder if in 3 or 4 contests the alp and green voters would tactically vote against LNP

 

[Vader]

I wonder if in 3 or 4 contests the alp and green voters would tactically vote against LNP

I doubt it. They would much rather deal with the LNP, even as a rabble, than add more Odd Notion party idiots to Parliament.

The ALP & Greens have a long history of refusing to preference Odd Notion ahead of the LNP. They will happily stand aside for sane candidates, such as the Teals, but not for the batshit insanity of Odd Notion.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

I doubt it. They would much rather deal with the LNP, even as a rabble, than add more Odd Notion party idiots to Parliament.

The ALP & Greens have a long history of refusing to preference Odd Notion ahead of the LNP. They will happily stand aside for sane candidates, such as the Teals, but not for the batshit insanity of Odd Notion.

Exactly, their whole brand under Albo is steady and predictable governance.

I think following a reform agenda would increase their popularity, but if they are cautious in even that regard, there is zero chance they play preference games with a known racist and grifting rabble.

 

[Expensive_Horse5538]

Latest Newspoll:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-sussan-leys-liberals-hit-historic-low-and-hand-angus-taylor-a-challenge-trigger/news-story/bbd4bf5615319c1d872a735e4d1646f9?amp

Labor - 33, Liberals - 15, Nationals - 3, One Nation - 27

 

[QuietB]

Latest Newspoll:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-sussan-leys-liberals-hit-historic-low-and-hand-angus-taylor-a-challenge-trigger/news-story/bbd4bf5615319c1d872a735e4d1646f9?amp

Labor - 33, Liberals - 15, Nationals - 3, One Nation - 27

They are diabolical numbers

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

They are diabolical numbers

A rabble no one likes. Not the cookers, not the centre right Teal/Turnbull professional class, not the regions, not workers and certainly not the left.

They basically have a constituency that is quickly shrinking to zero.

Maybe some toffs in Kooyong or around Brighton, or the Shire. But for how long?

 

[Forward Press]

Was just about to comment that this confirms One Nation polls aren't an aberration, this is a serious existential threat to those on the conservative side of politics.

When you stand for nothing, the voters are nothing. If you're going to drift right and ape One Nation policies - well, why would you as a conservative voter choose the copy when you can get the original? They were seduced by the success of Trump, Farage et al without understanding why they became successful, and they made the fatal mistake of thinking the ultra-religious and the cookers were bigger voter blocs than they actually are.

This should be where the teals can become a serious force but they lose their electoral power if they unify as a party. There is now a vacuum where a centre-right sane economic conservative candidate can win seats in the suburbs.

 

[Fire]

This should be where the teals can become a serious force but they lose their electoral power if they unify as a party.

Why?