Fixture Post Bye and End Season Ladder position

[Blightys Barrel]

I have pulled out the crystal ball and had a crack at where we will finish at the end of the year. Have factored in the form of the opponents currently. Some slipping down the ladder at a rate of knots (eg, Swans, Hawks) and some shooting up like a rocket and booking a finals appointment.

• Rd 13 Wet Toast. Should win (Ladder 14 points)
• Rd 14 Fremantle. Should lose (14 points)
• Rd 15 Carlton. Is winnable and we owe them after they pantsed us (18 points)
• Rd 16 Hawks. Is winnable (22 points)
• Rd 17 Doggies. Should lose (22 points)
• Rd 18 Demons. Should lose (22 points)
• Rd 19 Swans. Is winnable and we also owe them (26 points)
• Rd 20 Cats. Should lose (26 points)
• Rd 21 Saints. Is winnable (30 points)
• Rd 22 Giants. Is winnable (34 points)
• Rd 23 Tigers. Is winnable (38 points)
• Rd 24 Crows. Loss. Nailed to the cross Easter style. More rabble than the Swans?

Variability Factors- dumb team selection, coaching strategy (or lack of), injuries, umpire incompetence and general Northness. Minus 3 winnable games.

Finish on 26 points. Last 4 years average will get you 16th position on the ladder. Let’s hope the pick #3 in this year’s draft for the Tigers is a blend of Paddy Dow

15

Paddy Dow

Age

26

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

7.1

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.4

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.8

5star

CL

2.6

5star

, Josh Schache

19

Josh Schache

Age

28

Ht

199cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.5

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

0.0

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

10.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.8

4star

and Richard Tambling

Richard Tambling

Age

39

Ht

180cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.9

4star

K

8.4

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.4

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

What are your thoughts on our end position/points?

 

[DuckYeah]

Stone cold last.

 

[amaz199]

I don't have us beating anyone unless we figure out how to win rather than falling over the finish line.

 

[Blightys Barrel]

Stone cold last.

This guy is not so sure

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

The team that doesn’t know how to win has at most two winnable games.

Richmond and WC.

 

[Horace]

No more wins, it will be the spoon for us, handing the Tigers the first pick in the draft, together with the third they will have. I have it on good authority (dubious) that they will pick up the next Dusty with Pick 1 and the bloke who will go at 3, looks like the next Bont. Oh well.

 

[Ball Dont Lie]

Yeah outside of west coast I can’t see us winning another game. Last or second last. The club will point to our improved % as a sign we have improved.

 

[zoomba23]

We'll beat one of Richmond and West Coast, and one other team, which will probably come as a mild surprise at the time. Saints or Swans. 4W, 1D, 18L, and a creeping feeling of dread stemming from the fact we'll be sitting four years down the track from our best rebuild year with nothing but slight regression to show for it.

Please somehow win 6 or 7, campaigners. I am begging you

 

[hilly]

Turn it up Blighty. 4.5, WC and Richmond.

 

[Frank Thring]

22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11

more wins to get us into 8th

 

[FlyHigh18]

Following up on my prediction from preseason, the first half has gone just as expected.

It was actually better than I expected considering we are literally 3 goals away from sitting 11th right now.

We’ll get 6 more wins in the second half and finish 12th - 14th. But could have been higher.

Laugh all you want, it’s happening.

 

[North1411]

The eternal optimist in me has 8 more wins and finish 10th!

 

[Heaps of fun]

I haven't been able to do these threads for years after I realised that if I put zero wins I wouldn't be disappointed and would only be a handful of wins off from being correct.

 

[Mr north man]

Stone cold last.

Hate to say it but I think you’re 100% right.
But remember we have had little wins just want to know how much Woke BS Spin the NMFC will put on it.

 

[kool kangas]

I have pulled out the crystal ball and had a crack at where we will finish at the end of the year. Have factored in the form of the opponents currently. Some slipping down the ladder at a rate of knots (eg, Swans, Hawks) and some shooting up like a rocket and booking a finals appointment.

• Rd 13 Wet Toast. Should win (Ladder 14 points)
• Rd 14 Fremantle. Should lose (14 points)
• Rd 15 Carlton. Is winnable and we owe them after they pantsed us (18 points)
• Rd 16 Hawks. Is winnable (22 points)
• Rd 17 Doggies. Should lose (22 points)
• Rd 18 Demons. Should lose (22 points)
• Rd 19 Swans. Is winnable and we also owe them (26 points)
• Rd 20 Cats. Should lose (26 points)
• Rd 21 Saints. Is winnable (30 points)
• Rd 22 Giants. Is winnable (34 points)
• Rd 23 Tigers. Is winnable (38 points)

Variability Factors- dumb team selection, coaching strategy (or lack of), injuries, umpire incompetence and general Northness. Minus 3 winnable games.

Finish on 26 points. Last 4 years average will get you 16th position on the ladder. Let’s hope the pick #3 in this year’s draft for the Tigers is a blend of Paddy Dow, Josh Schache and Richard Tambling

What are your thoughts on our end position/points?

Dumb team selection should include not playing Phillips for the rest of the season...

 

[Marstermind]

We're guaranteed to beat nobody. West Coast next week is 50/50. The Tiges would start favourites if we played them next week. At best we'll elevate to lofty 16th. Probably get a three-peat of 17ths though.

 

[hilly]

Following up on my prediction from preseason, the first half has gone just as expected.

It was actually better than I expected considering we are literally 3 goals away from sitting 11th right now.

We’ll get 6 more wins in the second half and finish 12th - 14th. But could have been higher.

Laugh all you want, it’s happening.

Assume WC and Richmond. The other four?

 

[Higgo2Froggy]

I'd be incredibly pissed if we couldn't beat WC or Richmond again - that would put us at 4 wins and a draw, still undoubtably shit but our most wins in a season since the absolute halcyon days of 2021 in our first year under Noble and the label of "best wooden spooner ever?"

Prior to the season, I would've be ok with 7-8 wins as a mark of genuine progress - we'd need to find 3-4 more wins on top of WC/Richmond to satisfy that

Going to put the Dogs, Cats and Crows in the "there's more of a chance of me scoring a date with Sydney Sweeney than us winning this game" category. I also can't see us beating Freo, Carlton, Hawthorn or GWS, although these four have been more inconsistent than the Dogs/Cats/Crows so maybe we could catch them on an off-day and surprise? I really doubt it tho

Leaves Melbourne, Sydney and St Kilda as games which we should theoretically have a chance in. After all, we smacked Melbourne by 10 goals earlier in the year but that's looking a distant memory at the minute. Sydney are there for the taking but they were also there for the taking in round 4 and we completely shit the bed and were flogged. Saints haven't been good all year but have the exact type of players and gamestyle that routinely cuts us up

Ultimately, I've got us ending with 4 wins and a draw and battling Richmond for the dizzying heights of 16th, with 5-6 wins as our ceiling. I'd love nothing more than for North to make me look foolish and rattle off a few more wins than that, just have no confidence at all that will happen.

 

[Gasometer]

Winnable…Hawks

 

[zoomba23]

Following up on my prediction from preseason, the first half has gone just as expected.

It was actually better than I expected considering we are literally 3 goals away from sitting 11th right now.

We’ll get 6 more wins in the second half and finish 12th - 14th. But could have been higher.

Laugh all you want, it’s happening.

Three goals away from 11th might as well be a trip to Jupiter, we're that shithouse late in games. You can feel the tension whenever we're up. Players tense up. They forget what to do with the ball. They panic. The crowd, if there is a North crowd, tenses up. Rinse and rinse and repeat. I'm glad we beat Richmond. Wardlaw got a second win. Hallelujah. But good Christ, we make it difficult.

Nothing changes till we show that we are no longer total panic merchants. Ask yourself; with eight minutes to go, and North up by seven, would you feel more confident in a win than a loss? I don't think a single person here would answer yes

 

[nicko74]

If WC play like this next week we will struggle to beat them

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

If WC play like this next week we will struggle to beat them

Take the $2.40 right now.

 

[big_e]

Three goals away from 11th might as well be a trip to Jupiter, we're that shithouse late in games. You can feel the tension whenever we're up. Players tense up. They forget what to do with the ball. They panic. The crowd, if there is a North crowd, tenses up. Rinse and rinse and repeat. I'm glad we beat Richmond. Wardlaw got a second win. Hallelujah. But good Christ, we make it difficult.

Nothing changes till we show that we are no longer total panic merchants. Ask yourself; with eight minutes to go, and North up by seven, would you feel more confident in a win than a loss? I don't think a single person here would answer yes

Here's every game since Clarkson was appointed where we were in front with eight minutes to go.

Richmond, 2025: win
Brisbane, 2025: draw
West Coast, 2024: loss
Richmond, 2024: win
Gold Coast, 2024: win
Collingwood, 2024: loss
Gold Coast, 2024: win
Sydney, 2023: loss
Fremantle, 2023: win
West Coast, 2023: win

Actually not a bad record.

The Collingwood loss was the Bailey Scott non-50, the Sydney loss was the interchange debacle, leaving the all-time shit-the-bed moment vs the Eagles being the only one where you can lay the blame squarely on the players, IMO.

The bigger issue is not getting in front in the first place - and that's usually by having a poor quarter and not being able to make up the difference.

 

[zoomba23]

Here's every game since Clarkson was appointed where we were in front with eight minutes to go.

Richmond, 2025: win
Brisbane, 2025: draw
West Coast, 2024: loss
Richmond, 2024: win
Gold Coast, 2024: win
Collingwood, 2024: loss
Gold Coast, 2024: win
Sydney, 2023: loss
Fremantle, 2023: win
West Coast, 2023: win

Actually not a bad record.

The Collingwood loss was the Bailey Scott non-50, the Sydney loss was the interchange debacle, leaving the all-time shit-the-bed moment vs the Eagles being the only one where you can lay the blame squarely on the players, IMO.

The bigger issue is not getting in front in the first place - and that's usually by having a poor quarter and not being able to make up the difference.

Decent rebuttal, but even considering this I don't think we can say that these players are iron-willed in their pursuit of a win.

WC 2023: Cheap goals to them made it way tougher than it should've been. Curtis Taylor shat the bed from 17m out straight in front. Mr Anti Clutch.

Freo 2023: We just barely avoided coughing up a twenty-point lead with three minutes left thanks to the siren and Sheezel's presence of mind. The next year, we did.

Gold Coast 2024 (typo on one of those, I reckon), we relied on pure dumb luck, with Ainsworth missing the set shot to put them ahead. After we'd dominated them.

Richmond 2024: We always felt in control, but game gets more interesting if they hit those no-pressure running shots.

Richmond 2025: Pink heroics, one of the more solid-feeling wins of the lot given opposition pressure in spite of various frustrations (inability to tackle them, inability to get a good bounce).


It's really fragile. It's a really fragile group. I still contend that we don't know what to do when we're up, and almost try to lose because it's where we feel most comfortable. Of course there are a whole host of other games where we got close but never hit the front in the last ten minutes (St Kilda 2023, Ess 2023 x2, Melb 2024, Ess 2025) which comes back to your final point. Both situations suggest fragility

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

I'd be incredibly pissed if we couldn't beat WC or Richmond again - that would put us at 4 wins and a draw, still undoubtably shit but our most wins in a season since the absolute halcyon days of 2021 in our first year under Noble and the label of "best wooden spooner ever?"

Prior to the season, I would've be ok with 7-8 wins as a mark of genuine progress - we'd need to find 3-4 more wins on top of WC/Richmond to satisfy that

Going to put the Dogs, Cats and Crows in the "there's more of a chance of me scoring a date with Sydney Sweeney than us winning this game" category. I also can't see us beating Freo, Carlton, Hawthorn or GWS, although these four have been more inconsistent than the Dogs/Cats/Crows so maybe we could catch them on an off-day and surprise? I really doubt it tho

Leaves Melbourne, Sydney and St Kilda as games which we should theoretically have a chance in. After all, we smacked Melbourne by 10 goals earlier in the year but that's looking a distant memory at the minute. Sydney are there for the taking but they were also there for the taking in round 4 and we completely shit the bed and were flogged. Saints haven't been good all year but have the exact type of players and gamestyle that routinely cuts us up

Ultimately, I've got us ending with 4 wins and a draw and battling Richmond for the dizzying heights of 16th, with 5-6 wins as our ceiling. I'd love nothing more than for North to make me look foolish and rattle off a few more wins than that, just have no confidence at all that will happen.

This looks pretty close to the pin H2F.

Another way to look at it is that we have 12 games left - 6 against teams who are in finals contention and 6 who will not make finals.

While it would be great to get an upset win against one of the higher ranked opponents we should be aiming to beat 4 of the 6 teams not in contention.

That would give us 6.5 wins for the season - still disappointing - but at least some momentum going into the off season. If 2 of these wins were against Sydney and Carlton then that would go some way to negating those horrible first half of the year efforts against them.