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It's funny how similar this year is to 2023. After 13 games we were 5-8, with a percentage of 98%, including losses to Geelong by 93 points and Melbourne by 50 points. This year, assuming (granted, big assumption) we beat Richmond, we'll be 5-8 with a percentage in the high 80s. Both years we had a heap of injuries earlier on. In 2023 we went on a 6 game winning streak in the back half of the year and made the finals with 12 wins, 10 losses, 1 draw. I don't thing 12 wins gets us there this year.

You could look at it and say great, we'll bounce back like we did in 2024 and compete again for the flag next year. But I think what it's highlighting is just how razor thin our margin of error is. The depth on our list is terrible. Our drafting over the last 5 years has been really bad. For the earlier drafts, I'll mark on whether they are best 22 without a huge injury list. For later drafts, what the prospects are looking like.

2019
Michael Knoll (mid-season) - Fail
Cody Hirst (mid-season) - Fail
Dylan Stephens - Fail
Will Gould - Fail
Elijah Taylor - Fail
Chad Warner - Pass
Brady Rowles (Rookie) - Fail
Jack Maibaum (Rookie) - Fail

2020

McDonald - Fail (could change but for a KPF at pick 4 don't think he's going to get there)
Campbell - Fail
Gulden - Pass
Carruthers (Rookie) - Fail

2021

McAndrew (Mid-season) - Fail
Sheldrick - Fail
Roberts - Pass
Corey Warner - Pending (not sure he's got the goods to be a 100 gamer honestly)
Lachlan Rankin - Fail
Lewis Taylor (Rookie) - Fail

2022

Hugo Hall-Kahan (Mid-season) - Fail
Konstanty - Fail
Vickery - Fail
Caleb Mitchell - Pending
Cameron Owen (Rookie) - Fail
Jaiden Magor (Rookie) - Fail

2023
Harry Arnold (Mid-season) -
Fail
Jack Buller (Mid-season) - Fail (if he can't get a came with our current dearth of talls it's all over)
Will Green -
Pending
Caiden Cleary - Pending
Patrick Snell - Pending

2024
Tom Hanily (Mid-season) -
Pending
Jesse Dattoli - Pending
Ned Bowman - Pending
Riley Bice - Pending (But honestly not looking likely. Reckon he's the next Ben Ronke)
Riak Andrew -
Pending
Blake Leidler (Rookie) - Pending
Ben Paton (Rookie) - Fail


That's brutal. It's hard to point the finger at Cox for struggling for lack of depth when that's what we've given him.

If we don't get some greens from that 2023 & 2024 class it could be a while down the bottom.
Will Edwards - pending?

I think that trades should be included for consideration, whether better or worse, others can decide. I might be missing some…

Grundy, Adams, JJ and trading out Parker and JK.

It’s all part of the puzzle in my opinion.
 
I see where you're coming from.

My view comes from seeing the pick as one part of a list management process and in that front, i think we have done quite poorly.

We had 2 shots at securing a generational ruck (Nank and Cameron) and fluffed it by backing a guy held together by sticky tape. Plus he wasn't even really that good a player in an all round sense. So eventually we let go of Aliir to get picks for Hickey!

We let go of Hewett, who we only viewed as a tagger and felt was going to be surpassed by a younger Rowbottom when hindsight shows is now a bona fide inside clearance mid.

Dawson was most probably a lost cause but I do wonder if we had identified his potential as a mid with leadership qualities whether he would've stayed? He had certainly racked up huge numbers in the neafl as an on baller.
Sliding doors.

Ruck situation was a **** up definitely, but the Hewett carry on is tiring. He's an ok player who has the odd good game with a heap of bit part performances thrown in. We probably don't get Jordon if we committed to Hewett.
 

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Think it depends what we dish up for the rest of the year. If there's no rally, we might need a 19/20 type rebound, just with better drafting. We'll need to bring in some talls at either end and another inside mid in any case, plus sort out which academy kids are most needed (not just take them all, which I think we showed we're moving on from).

Out of contract players like Francis, Hamling, Mitchell (would give him another game), Kirk, Paton, Rampe, Lloyd might not have a place here any more. Though most of these were going to need to happen soon regardless of our year. Fox would depend on whether he can overcome injury struggles. Any contracted players interested in heading off can jog on.
caesar88 long post about players who should be nervous is actually a pretty good corollary to this question. The first two groups were the core of our best team. You can always argue a bit around the edges but it was pretty accurate IMO. Take the best of the rest and ask if we have 30 players to give us a top 4 season. Who would you genuinely want in a contending team? Might be a bit harsh here but for mine:
FB: Wicks McCartin Cunningham
HB: Mills*** Melican Blakey
C: Gulden Heeney McInerney
HF: Jordon McDonald WarnerCh
FF: Papley Amartey** Hayward
Foll: Grundy Rowbottom Sheldrick*
I/C: Snell* Cleary* Campbell** McLean**
* Unproven
** Marginal - nice if we can improve on
*** Very arguable as to his best role
This is our best team with no outside additions. It's a good team.
No draftees will improve it. Only a gun player will. Not a rebuild but definitely needing reinforcements.
The real problem is the next 7 or so players and the drop off in quality and cohesion. And of course sorting out WTF happened in the GF.
 

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caesar88 long post about players who should be nervous is actually a pretty good corollary to this question. The first two groups were the core of our best team. You can always argue a bit around the edges but it was pretty accurate IMO. Take the best of the rest and ask if we have 30 players to give us a top 4 season. Who would you genuinely want in a contending team? Might be a bit harsh here but for mine:
FB: Wicks McCartin Cunningham
HB: Mills*** Melican Blakey
C: Gulden Heeney McInerney
HF: Jordon McDonald WarnerCh
FF: Papley Amartey** Hayward
Foll: Grundy Rowbottom Sheldrick*
I/C: Snell* Cleary* Campbell** McLean**
* Unproven
** Marginal - nice if we can improve on
*** Very arguable as to his best role
This is our best team with no outside additions. It's a good team.
No draftees will improve it. Only a gun player will. Not a rebuild but definitely needing reinforcements.
The real problem is the next 7 or so players and the drop off in quality and cohesion. And of course sorting out WTF happened in the GF.

The complicating factor is: who is past their peak & who is still on an upward trajectory.

Of the players listed, I’d consider the potential for a significant upward trajectory is limited to Gulden (!), McDonald & possibly Campbell, Sheldrick, Cleary, Snell & Wicks. Perhaps add Roberts to the “possible” list.

Conversely, I’d argue that Cunningham and Grundy are past their prime, as might be Mills, whilst Heeney and Melican might not be far away from decline. McCartin is still tenuous due to his concussion issues.

The rest have likely plateaued (including Florent, who I note you haven’t listed).

Our <21 year old crop offers little cause for optimism.

Bottom line: I believe we need an injection of young talent, because otherwise we’re relying on significant improvement from a fairly small number of “maybes”. Recruiting more 30 year old B-graders won’t cut it.
 
The complicating factor is: who is past their peak & who is still on an upward trajectory.

Of the players listed, I’d consider the potential for a significant upward trajectory is limited to Gulden (!), McDonald & possibly Campbell, Sheldrick, Cleary, Snell & Wicks. Perhaps add Roberts to the “possible” list.

Conversely, I’d argue that Cunningham and Grundy are past their prime, as might be Mills, whilst Heeney and Melican might not be far away from decline. McCartin is still tenuous due to his concussion issues.

The rest have likely plateaued (including Florent, who I note you haven’t listed).

Our <21 year old crop offers little cause for optimism.

Bottom line: I believe we need an injection of young talent, because otherwise we’re relying on significant improvement from a fairly small number of “maybes”. Recruiting more 30 year old B-graders won’t cut it.


Campbell is who he is I think
 

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The complicating factor is: who is past their peak & who is still on an upward trajectory.

Of the players listed, I’d consider the potential for a significant upward trajectory is limited to Gulden (!), McDonald & possibly Campbell, Sheldrick, Cleary, Snell & Wicks. Perhaps add Roberts to the “possible” list.

Conversely, I’d argue that Cunningham and Grundy are past their prime, as might be Mills, whilst Heeney and Melican might not be far away from decline. McCartin is still tenuous due to his concussion issues.

The rest have likely plateaued (including Florent, who I note you haven’t listed).

Our <21 year old crop offers little cause for optimism.

Bottom line: I believe we need an injection of young talent, because otherwise we’re relying on significant improvement from a fairly small number of “maybes”. Recruiting more 30 year old B-graders won’t cut it.
Couldn't agree more about recruitment. I was very disappointed we didn't take the opportunity to get a KPF into the pipeline when we had the chance, especially knowing that we didn't have one from the Academy.
Any good, balanced side should have their players in a range of ages and experience levels with as many as possible in their (personal) peak years. Some will always be at least a bit "over the hill" but still offering good value. Cunningham definitely in that Category, Rampe probably closer to the cliff.
I said I was being a bit harsh and Rampe, Fox, Roberts, Florent and Bice not being in that team could be seen as such but of course it's just my opinion.
My major objective was to see on paper whether we had a competitive team if their heads were OK and we do but as we strenuously agree, underneath maybe not so much, still.
 
Folks, a question about when a player requests a trade to another team: can this be done if a player has a year, 2, 3, 4 years, etc left on their contract? And the player and the club they want to join - surely there are discussions held beforehand between the players agent and club (they want to join) ?

Cheers, Hairy. The selling team might also look for one of the receiving teams future draft picks as part of the deal? Are player tranfers not as prevalent because players have a sense of loyalty to clubs or/and I imagine the salary caps of teams dictates they can't afford a top players contract, hence, that's one reason behind the salary cap?
Um... you wouldn't be JUH's manager, would you?
 
Um... you wouldn't be JUH's manager, would you?
season 7 GIF
 

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