Analysis FINALS! - Who and where will we play?

[wicksy]

Yes Wicksy.... you are.

No

 

[wicksy]

Our distribution on finishing position is as follows according to data analytics:

Top 4 - 50%
5 - 8 - 47%
Not top 8 - 3%

Win next week against Port and we would struggle not to make the top 4

Bit more to it than that.
The optimum is as follows:

- We win both games.
- Sydney wins both games.
- Melbourne lose to West Coast but beat GWS.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

Bit more to it than that.
The optimum is as follows:

- We win both games.
- Sydney wins both games.
- Melbourne lose to West Coast but beat GWS.

I'm not sure I follow. Win next week, then all we need to do is beat Freo in Freo to finish top 4. Even if Hawthorn win both games I'm confident we can make up 3% given they will be playing Sydney who certainly aren't going to roll over. Sydney in Sydney is harder than Port in Melbourne imo.

We have a higher chance of making Top 4 than Hawthorn so the analytics reflects that

 

[good4footy]

I'm not sure I follow. Win next week, then all we need to do is beat Freo in Freo to finish top 4. Even if Hawthorn win both games I'm confident we can make up 3% given they will be playing Sydney who certainly aren't going to roll over. Sydney in Sydney is harder than Port in Melbourne imo.

We have a higher chance of making Top 4 than Hawthorn so the analytics reflects that

They play St.Kilda this week. We aren't catching them on %. We need Syd (2 chances) or Melb to do us a solid

 

[good4footy]

Bit more to it than that.
The optimum is as follows:

- We win both games.
- Sydney wins both games.
- Melbourne lose to West Coast but beat GWS.

If win both ours and Syd win both then we don't want Melb to beat GWS as then we finish 3rd.

 

[jackcass]

Hopefully Howe will be back this week.

Beyond him, Appleby at this stage is the only injured player you'd be confident to be back and available going into finals. Hopefully VFL this week.

If Treloar, Goldsack and Moore aren't back playing VFL by at least the bye round then I think they'll struggle to get enough game time to merit promotion assuming we progress beyond week 1 of finals.

I think (at this stage) Wills' senior spot has been usurped by Sier. Hopefully he's back soon and having a major impact at VFL level though to ensure we have options if/when needed.

The cupboard is pretty bare but if needed we'd no doubt trot out the "1 soldier out, 1 soldier in" rhetoric and promote a Daicos or Brown type. Exposure would be good for them longer term.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

They play St.Kilda this week. We aren't catching them on %. We need Syd (2 chances) or Melb to do us a solid

If we beat Port and Hawks beat the Saints, going into the last round it'll be Pies vs Freo and Hawks vs Sydney. I know who I'll be backing to win substantial. We beat Freo by how many last time we played?

 

[good4footy]

If we beat Port and Hawks beat the Saints, going into the last round it'll be Pies vs Freo and Hawks vs Sydney. I know who I'll be backing to win substantial. We beat Freo by how many last time we played?

...but you are not factoring in the % they get from Saints game. We won't be going in with same % for the last round.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

...but you are not factoring in the % they get from Saints game. We won't be going in with same % for the last round.

Potentially. I can see Sydney having a Sydney win though in the last game of the season, they will be playing for a spot in the 8, at home. I much prefer there chance than an undermanned Port against us, but that's just my opinion.

 

[good4footy]

Potentially. I can see Sydney having a Sydney win though in the last game of the season, they will be playing for a spot in the 8, at home. I much prefer there chance than an undermanned Port against us, but that's just my opinion.

I agree but then that has nothing to do with %. We need a GWS or Hawthorn loss IMO....but not both!!!

 

[TKiL]

Fair chance of that

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

I agree but then that has nothing to do with %. We need a GWS or Hawthorn loss IMO....but not both!!!

GWS will be 3rd imo

 

[SuperSub17]

If win both ours and Syd win both then we don't want Melb to beat GWS as then we finish 3rd.

If Sydney win both then GWS have already automatically lost one, so their game vs Melbourne would be irrelevant to us (if we win both).

We’re finishing 3rd regardless in that scenario unless WC lose both - then we could pinch 2nd.

 

[Matt_352]

We need Treloar plus at least 2 of Howe, Moore and Goldy back if we are to be contenders.

yep

 

[Tarkyn_24]

If win both ours and Syd win both then we don't want Melb to beat GWS as then we finish 3rd.

Why does that matter?

I’d give us a better chance of beating West Coast at Subi than Richmond. Particularly if Kennedy is out.

 

[good4footy]

Why does that matter?

I’d give us a better chance of beating West Coast at Subi than Richmond. Particularly if Kennedy is out.

It doesn't matter to you because of your opinion but it matters to me because of mine. Which is fine by the way. Not travelling at all would be my preference, also we are better chance against Tigers with only one tall up forward. IMO.

 

[domus]

Potentially. I can see Sydney having a Sydney win though in the last game of the season, they will be playing for a spot in the 8, at home. I much prefer there chance than an undermanned Port against us, but that's just my opinion.

We are more undermanned!

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

Oh FFS. As IF the hopes and dreams of a bunch of supporters has some magical, wibbly-wobbly voodoo power of the result of our season.

We'll make or miss out on finals because of the team's performance.

In the meantime I would be quite happy to discuss the possibility of bringing in players for the finals because

a) The idea of finals makes me happy
b) The idea of seeing Goldy/Treloar running around on the park would also make me happy
c) If we miss out on finals I'll be unhappy but not terribly disappointed because rather than blow our chances this year, we've over-performed our expectations

So please, enough of the 'Shhhhh don't mention you-know-what' - let's just concentrate on the idea of how nice a B&W final will be

 

[Ga Doey]

let's just concentrate on the idea of how nice a B&W final will be

You know what! It's nicer to watch finals in colour.

 

[Quicky]

I see what you mean ...

... but who would you bring in if one of our regular midfielders became injured / sick / suspended?

For me Daicos. He has been playing this year and is the cleanest of the midfield options available. Which is important in finals. He also tackles well.

 

[Quicky]

Fair chance of that

Melbourne has easily the best percentage of those fighting it out for those last finals spots. If they win one game they'll definitely make it. If they lose both they're still a shot. Benefit of being one of the best attacking sides in the comp. They're pretty shaky whenever there is anything to actually play for though.

 

[Quicky]

There's a few things i'd look at doing:

• Give Fasolo a game. He's the only forward option worth a look outside of the 22. If we lose another midfielder it would also be handy to have a replacement for De Goey if we need move him upfield. Fasolo is the man.
• Give both De Goey and Crisp a run at the centre bounces. We have struggled at centre clearances through the season and we need a plan B if things aren't working in a final. Those are our next best onballers.
• Murray is too flaky by foot for finals. We need a replacement. The options are Greenwood and Appleby. I'd go Greenwood due to experience, the flexibility to play as a tagger, and also incumbency.
• The players we need back in are Howe and Treloar.

 

[Quicky]

What do we do with our key defenders? Do we leave Madgen in? Do we play Howe at CHB? Or do we look at risking Moores hammy and Goldsacks fitness and touch? That's our biggest challenge.

 

[wicksy]

I'm not sure I follow. Win next week, then all we need to do is beat Freo in Freo to finish top 4. Even if Hawthorn win both games I'm confident we can make up 3% given they will be playing Sydney who certainly aren't going to roll over. Sydney in Sydney is harder than Port in Melbourne imo.

We have a higher chance of making Top 4 than Hawthorn so the analytics reflects that

Wrong... If Hawks and GWS win both of their remaining games, they will finish 3rd and 4th.

EDIT: Just re-read your post that relies on us making up %. We haven't got a habit of finishing teams off so I wouldn't put my house on it.

 

[TradeDraft]

There's a few things i'd look at doing:

• Give Fasolo a game. He's the only forward option worth a look outside of the 22. If we lose another midfielder it would also be handy to have a replacement for De Goey if we need move him upfield. Fasolo is the man.

What about McLarty?