Quigley's 2008 Mock (Warning Very Long)

[Quigley]

As per last year this is very long. Don’t say you weren’t warned. I have 60 picks so please don’t post in the middle until I have put it all up.

Okay let me admit first up that I have not seen these guys as much as some people on this forum. I have based most of my opinions on a couple of games and quite a lot of research. When I go to games I tend to try and pay close attention to draftability issues and I take copious notes but I am the first to admit that I don’t get to see them as much as I would like. My opinions are usually heavily weighted toward the opinions I have when I have watched them live so if someone happens to have a bad day or been carrying an injury etc then I may have come away with a false impression that is reflected here. Notwithstanding that I like to think I am usually a pretty fair judge and I will not shy away from giving an opinion different from the majority.

I have done things a bit different to most people and have backed my judgement. I figure that I will be wrong anyway so I may as well be wrong backing my own opinion rather than being swayed by everyone else. Its not like the professionals don’t stuff up all the time anyway so I am happy to give my opinion where I would take them and look back in a few years and see how deluded I was. I am not trying to guess exactly where they will be taken on the day. Note though that I have included a few guys that I haven’t seen and have relied on profiles of others posting on here.

I have also included more Div 2 players than most and all picks from 50 to 60 are Div 2 guys. These guys don’t get much talk so I try and get their names out there a bit. With the number of players going this year expect to see quite a few of them taken later in the draft or in the rookie draft given everyone has a couple of extra rookie spots this year.

Overall I think this draft is very strong to the first 25 or so players and would be comparable to virtually any drafts you care to name. After that there is a pretty significant drop off and I think after the mid second round the draft standard is pretty average. That said there is an absolute swag of players at about the same standard and this makes picking the wheat from the chaff all the more difficult. Other observations:
· The midfield talent in the top 20 this year is as good as I have ever seen it. This is definitely the year to address your midfield in the first round.
· After the first round and a half the skill level of the midfield group looking to be picked is generally pretty awful. I am writing doing my profiles and too many of the players have kicking as their major weakness. This is not a good sign in this age of possession football.
· A lot of the potential midfielders will start their career in the forward line. A few of these guys are very exciting prospects. Later in the draft there are a few quality, above age, proven goal scoring prospects who could help a few teams.
· There is good depth in the key position forwards this year although not many “can’t miss” prospects.
· After Naitanui I don’t rate the ruck talent this year at all. There is a plethora of athletic, under 200cm ruck/key position players with poor ruck skills who move around the ground pretty well for their size. History shows that very few of these types of players end up passable at either ruck or key position and hardly any at the elite end.
· Key defensive prospects are very light on the ground this year and those that are there have significant question marks hanging over them. If I am looking for a key defender I am looking at the forwards and thinking about whether they will convert to the back half.

And before the questions get raised – I know Hill will go higher than I have him, no I don’t really think Rolfe will go that high, I think Trengove will go higher but I would not be at all surprised if he did slide to where I have him, I did not forget Strauss, Sloane etc I just don’t rate them as high as some, I do rate Cornelius and it would not surprise me if he went that high. And with that on with the show.

 

[Quigley]

1. Melbourne

Okay first up I am going to go against what I said above. It is pretty much a certainty that Watts is going to go number 1 so I am going to take him here given that if I was actually picking I would go with Naitanui who I see as a position changing talent and marketing bonanza. Both of them fit major needs and given that I like the look of Spencer it might be that the more dire need rests in the forward line.

Jack Watts (DOB – 26/3/91, Ht – 195.8, Wt – 85)

Watts is everyone favourite to go number 1 pick and he should, at worst end up being at least a very solid forward option for the next 10 years. Key position players are always a little harder to pick than midfielders but Watts has a lot of tools and he looks good for such a young player. He has very good size, gets separation with ease, has a great leap (5th in Camp with 70cm in the vertical leap) and has very good hands. He is exceptionally quick off the mark for such a big guy (2nd in Camp in 20m sprint at 2.82 and 7th in the repeat sprint at 25.44) and he surprised me at Camp with a fantastic agility time (2nd with 8.03). I knew he steps pretty well but I had thought he had a fairly wide turning circle. Importantly too once he takes the mark he also finishes very well. He has very good length on his kicks and can finish from outside 50. He doesn’t have many weaknesses in his game although he can struggle with shorter opposition players on occasion who can stick with him and put some body pressure on. He also is not the strongest player out there and can get pushed around with players as big as himself and invariably loses any wrestling matches he gets into. He relies on his speed to get free and has not had to worry about developing much of a forward’s bag of tricks as yet. As with most key position prospects he is likely to take a couple of years before he will be effective at AFL level because he is a bottom aged prospect who needs to get stronger and also because I think he is going to end up as a full forward. I don’t think he has the tank to be a half forward at the next level. He had a very good Champs and his talent was showcased very well in clearly the dominant team and against probably the weakest crop of key position defenders that I can remember. I think he has also been favoured a bit by the fact that apart from the Champs we haven’t seen that much of him this year having played school football rather than TAC or senior football where he would have had more exposure and had to match up on better quality opposition in less dominant teams. The other thing is how many times does he kick really big bags? He has enormous physical gifts but he doesn’t often get big bags. He also missed the U16 Champs last year with injury. Overall I think he is a great talent but I do not see him as a “can’t miss” prospect. He is a superb athlete who has shown good finishing ability in what little we have seen of him. Whether he can take the step up against much big, stronger and cleverer opposition and take the pounding week after week remains to be seen. Balanced against that is the fact that he looks to have a large amount of development left in him given that he is underaged, has played only at school level and further that this is the first year he hasn’t been splitting his football with basketball commitments. At the end of the day although I would take Natanui ahead of him if it were my choice he is certainly a worthy number 1 selection.

2. West Coast

I think the biggest need for West Coast is still in the midfield where they need more depth despite seemingly doing extremely well last year. The Eagles have quite a bit of key position talent coming through (who look good but have yet to really prove it – very much like Brisbane in this regard) and they still have Cox and Seaby who are as good as any ruck combination in the league. Picking for need here you would have to have them taking Rich who is the stand out mid prospect this year. Despite that however I am going to go with the player who I rate as the best player in the draft in Naitanui. It is scary that the Eagles could have two sublime, best in a generation rucks following on from each other. Naitanui is also a local boy which can only be helpful.

Nicholas Naitanui (DOB – 4/5/90, Ht – 200.9, Wt – 94)

A player comes along very rarely who has the ability to revolutionise his position and this year we have a person like that in Naitanui. Whether he will end up doing that remains to be seen but he could take the ruck position to somewhere it has never been before. He is a phenomenally gifted athlete who is able to jump over, run around and away from his competition with ease. That is not even considering his strength which I would classify as the best of the available ruck or key position prospects as well. As expected he performed extremely well at Camp coming in 4th in the 20m sprint (2.86) and repeat sprints (25.10) and dominated in the standing vertical jump (78cm) and equalled the record in the running vertical jump (1.02m) although some were disappointed that he didn’t smash the record as expected. The huge surprise and the thing that the Camp really settled was the concern that Naitanui was a bit on the short side. He was listed at 197 at the Champs but at Camp he measured second tallest at 200.9. Suddenly one of the big concerns were well and truly settled – he is legitimate ruck height. This is a year where there is a lot of highly regarded ruck prospects but none can hold a candle to Naitanui in the ruck (in all honesty most of his opposition are actually pretty ordinary in the actual ruck itself) and he easily lead the Champs in hit-outs with 92. To add to that he also had 20 clearances (10 against Vic Country which was the most by any player in one game) and 23 tackles. He is not a big possession winner around the ground at the moment but in the ruck area he is dynamic. He has a massive leap that carries him easily over his opponent, he directs his taps well and he also recovers phenomenally quickly to chase the ball at the fall and is very good below the knees. He is very quick and agile and closes down opposition ball winners very quickly. He has played in the Champs the last two years and he has had no peer as a pure ruck man in either year. Naitanui has bulked up considerably in the last year and is a pretty solid guy now who looks like he will continue to grow into a monster. He is already very strong and the fact that he could still use some toning up I think would further encourage the teams looking at him. His endurance does need work with the focus seemingly being on bulking up over the last 12 months. The area of biggest concern for teams would have to be his game skills and the fact that they haven’t seemed to improve greatly this year despite being full time in the senior system at Swan Districts. His kicking is hit and miss at best and his bouncing of the ball is often high comedy. You have to say though that his hand balls in close are usually very good. Whether he is ever going to have the skills and game sense necessary take full advantage of his athletic gifts would have to be the biggest concern for teams. If he gets his skills right it is also not beyond the realms of possibility that he could play as a top shelf CHF or CHB if needed. He has won some games for his club in these roles (mainly at CHB) and showed at the Champs as well that he could be more than a handful. In fact I suggest that his time matched up on Hurley might have caused a few recruiters to have some serious questions about Hurley. Hurley was not able to overpower Naitanui the way he did other forwards and then Naitanui was able to create separation with ease with his pace off the mark. He also turned Hurley around with his agility on several occasions and exposed Hurley’s lack of manoeuvrability. If he knew what the hell he was doing as far as leading to the rights spots and timing his runs he could have picked up a bag. The other thing teams will take into account is the fact that Naitanui is easily the most marketable player in this year’s draft. He has the mop like hair style, has a great back story being from Fiji and is a personable young guy. As far as getting some positive spin in the media he is your man. In the AFL next year I would expect him to play a fair bit mainly in the ruck at centre bounces and then going back to CHB. He should be difficult to contain at the centre bounces although experienced rucks should give him trouble at throw ins and bounces around the ground when they can get body on him. Would I take him number 1 if I was Melbourne – probably.

3. Fremantle

It is no secret that Fremantle’s biggest hole is currently in their midfield. Palmer and Ibbo look like they will be good long term players and Haselby will be a big in for them next year but apart from that I do not rate them very highly and there is a distinct lack of depth and class. Although Palmer gets a lot of the ball he is not the class ball user that Rich is (like comparing Lappin with Voss two great players but given the choice you take Voss each time). If they get Rich suddenly Freo have two quality midfield corner stones in place for the next 10 years and they can build a very good team around he and Palmer.

Daniel Rich (DOB – 7/6/90, Ht – 183, Wt – 83)

Of all the midfield prospects that played in last year’s champs Rich was the one who impressed me most and I would have chosen him ahead of the likes of Cotchin, Masten and Morton. He seemed like the most well rounded of the prospects – he performed when the pressure was on, he could go inside and win his own ball and support Masten or run outside with the likes of Morton. His disposal was the equal of any and he looked as complete a player as you are likely to see as a bottom aged player. This year therefore I had very high expectations and despite him having a pretty good year I have been a little disappointed. He did not dominate the Champs and the only game in which he had a significant impact was the last against Vic Metro. In the WAFL he has been solid but has only managed 15 possessions a game. Good for an U18 player but this is someone who I thought might have a Buckley like year leading into the draft. So what is all the fuss about? Quite simply he is the most classy and safest prospect out there this year. His disposal is very good off either foot and fantastic off his left. He has great penetration on the left and will hit his forwards from 60 metres away with monotonous ease. His vision and option taking is up there with the very best and you know that something good is going to happen whenever he gets the ball. He is a very smart player both in what he does with the ball and the way he moves to space and the way he tries to lose his man. He has a solid, AFL ready build, reasonable pace and good endurance. He reads the ball off hands very well and uses his body strength and balance well in the in and under contests. He probably does not have the absolute elite endurance levels at the moment and has struggled throughout the year to break tags. The other concern for me is his defensive effort. At the Champs he virtually never committed to the tackle always holding back and trying seemingly to shepherd his man without getting physical contact. His shoulder was heavily strapped and I was wondering whether he had recently dislocated it and was trying to avoid contact. This reluctance was in contrast though when the ball was loose. When the ball was on the ground he would go as hard as anyone and throw his head over the ball to win it. I don’t know what is going on there but if I was a team looking to draft him I would be getting his shoulder looked at pretty closely. Overall he comes into the draft with considerable miles under his belt at senior level (including two WAFL premierships) and I have a few concerns that his young body has taken a bit of a pounding and it might be in less than pristine condition.

4. Port Adelaide

Port are notoriously hard to get a handle on because they don’t usually give anything away and tend to back their own, sometimes unconventional, judgement and the fact that there are stories that they are sold on Vickery I think are very likely a smoke screen. I don’t rate Vickery as a top 5 prospect so I am not taking him here because at this stage in the draft it should be all best available stuff. There biggest need is probably at FF and so if by some chance Watts fell they would have no hesitation. They also need to pick a ruck this year with their stocks likely to be basically empty of quality at the end of the year. So if Naitanui fell to them again I don’t think they would hesitate. Hartlett is the other who has been getting a lot of attention here in part because of the SA connection. Again he is not a player that I rate and Port are not afraid to take interstate players. Being grand finalists in 07 it is safe to assume that they do have quality options in the midfield but I do think they could use a bit more grunt that a bigger body would offer. For that reason and the fact that I think he is the best available player I have them taking Ziebell.

Jack Ziebell (DOB – 28/2/91, Ht – 188, Wt – 84)

Very powerfully built bottom aged player who should be a top 5 player this year. He is listed as a utility and is equally adept at HF, HB or in the middle. What you really notice is that whatever group he is with lifts when he is there and he makes those around him better. Long term I see him as being an inside midfielder but expect him to start up forward or down back depending on the needs of the team picking him. As he builds his endurance expect him to move into the middle full time and become that type of big bodied mid like Voss or Buckley that adds so much to midfield balance. He is a presence in the middle and has the knack of reading the ball off hands and being in the right place at the right time in contests. He is not a huge possession winner at the moment which I think is a factor of a lack of endurance and the fact that he plays at least half the game either up forward or down back. What sets him apart from virtually everyone is the quality of his disposal. He and Rich in my opinion are a class apart from anyone else available this year. He is a right footer with quick hands and exceptional vision and who works well under pressure. He is good overhead and can take a nice contested mark. He is good tackler and does the 1%ers that assist teammates. There has been a lot of talk about Sidebottom’s finish to the season but apart from the final the player who was the dominant player in the TAC in the latter stages of the year was Ziebell. This is despite the fact that he was carrying a knee injury since the Champs that significantly reduced his ability to train. This also affected his Camp results but I don’t think anyone expected him to be in the top 10s. Teams though always realised that he is not an elite runner (he is a power athlete) and will take him for what he can do on the park and the fact that these elite runners have had no ability to shut him down. Consider further that he is bottom aged and there is likely to be plenty of development in him yet. Those involved with him at the AIS are all big raps for him and think he is destined to captain whatever side he ends up at. Overall he is a class player who has a chance to be an elite player at AFL level and is the guy I will be praying falls to Brisbane come the real thing.

5. Essendon

Sorry Dons fans but you need talent across virtually every line. The highest priority is probably at the back where the cupboard is virtually bare of key positions. The midfield is short of class and whilst there are a few prospects up forward they have not done anything to indicate that they are going to be stars at AFL level. More than most teams I think the Dons need not to make a mistake with this pick because they really need to pick up a star. Most have them taking Hurley here and he is certainly a very big chance given this is a big need for the Bombers. I struggle to see Hurley becoming a star though (more solid workman for me) and when you have a few major talents available I think you have to go with one of them. That is why I see Zeibell, Yarran and Sidebottom as the preferred options. Swift, although a huge talent, is a bit too high risk to be taken this high I think. With Zeibell I am going with Sidebottom who has jumped up several spots on my mock after a magnificent performance in the TAC grand final.

Steele Sidebottom (DOB – 2/1/91, Ht – 182, Wt – 79)

The bottom aged Vic Country player has the tools to be a very good AFL player. After the Champs I had him around the 10 to 12 mark thinking he lacked a little class and natural tools to break into the top 10. Since then he has continued to develop at speed and his last 6 weeks or so of the season were very good and he absolutely dominated in the TAC GF picking up 10 goals to go along with 32 possessions. To pull out a game like that when it counts most will grab a lot of attention and I would have thought he had shot himself up into the 5 and 8 range on draft day. Reports coming out of Camp though is that he did not perform well and this might have dropped him back down a bit. Me I still like him and I remember Cyril being the worst interviewee ever apparently last year and yet still being able to play. For me Steele can play and I have no problem with him going high. At AFL level I see him as an inside midfielder who he can go forward or back and do a very nice job wherever he is played. He has reasonable size for a bottom aged player who looks like he will fill out nicely and whatever his size he doesn’t mind throwing it around. He is courageous to a fault and led the Champs in contested possessions (48) and was right up there in clearances as well. He commits to contests knowing he is going to get crunched and on the other side of the coin he really makes his tackles felt and hammers the man with the ball. Skills wise he is pretty good although I would not put him in the same category as teammate Zeibell. Some matches (and parts thereof) his skills look fantastic but in others he will make a few silly errors. He is one of the few genuinely dual sided players that play at any level. It is worth noting that 4 of the 10 goals that he kicked in the TAC final were kicked on his left foot. He has good finishing skills and his kicking and nose for goal are good although I would not put him in the same category as Yarran in this regard. Overhead he is a good mark and from what I have seen he seems to have excellent vision and takes pretty good options. What I really like about Sidebottom is his balance in contested situations. He keeps his feet when others are going to ground and recovers quickly, steadies and this improves the quality of his disposals in contests a lot. He is a very passionate player who has a reputation for being very coachable. He does not usually play a full game in the midfield so it is often hard to judge his tank but when in the middle he gets to every contest and makes good space without the ball. Going into camp he was expected to go close to 15 in the beep test and maybe even give the record a nudge. On the day though he only managed a 14.5 which was good enough for second. He also finished second in the 3km in a time of 10.32. The biggest issue with him is probably his pace which seems a little below a few of the other top midfield prospects. Maybe because of the pace issues he tends not to burst tackles or run with the ball as much as I like to see at junior level. That being said though there is a lot to like and he quite simply looks like a natural footballer. He is a very low risk midfield prospect who I expect to be a good player at the next level at least but may lack the class to be a star.

6. Carlton

As far as needs go they don’t come any more dire than Carlton’s need of key position players. Apart from Fev the Blues don’t have anyone who is close to elite and they have no depth. For that reason if Hurley is available expect them to go that way notwithstanding that he might not be at the top of their talent board. To get Hurley they need him to get past Essendon first which is a pretty big if to start with. If he goes to Essendon then I think Sidebottom or Yarran would be the picks depending on who Carlton have at the top of their talent board.

Michael Hurley (DOB – 1/6/90, Ht – 192, Wt – 92)

Will probably go pretty high because he is easily the best key position defensive prospect and quite a few teams including Essendon and Carlton really need a defensive key position. Despite that I think there are some major concerns with his game and he is by no means a certainty to be a dominant defender at AFL level. He has reasonable but not great height but is stronger than most under age players. He uses his strength to great effect against those he has had to play against to date. Where he has struggled are against those who are as strong as he and at AFL level that is pretty much going to be most people. He also only has average pace especially off the mark (3.11 at Camp) and he is not very agile. I would compare him to Mal Michael in size and playing style and it is worth noting that many commentators have said that the game has passed that style of player by (I still think there is a place although they are not as dominant as they once were). For an idea of the problems that he is likely to have at AFL level go back and have a look at the tape of the WA game when he was matched up on Naitanui. As a forward Naitanui doesn’t really know what he is doing but he took Hurley to the cleaners. Hurley couldn’t use his strength and Naitanui was able to push him off, he then couldn’t go with him on the lead then Naitanui easily turned him inside out when changing directions. The couple of times Hurley matched up on Naitanui really put up a lot of flags for me. Kicking wise he is rated very highly off either foot but personally I have a few concerns in this regard. His drop varies and has a tendency to spray kicks every now and then. He can deliver a worm burner one time and the next spray it. As I mentioned though he is the best option available if you are looking for a defender. Okay that are my concerns and I freely admit I am probably being a bit hard on him. He is a smart, strong player who reads the play very well and gets to the right spot a lot. He is disciplined defender who has good timing and is a very good spoiler. He adds a lot as a rebounding option but he is not a big possession winner. He is a two time AA at full back. He also has another string in his bow as he has played some good games up forward in the TAC and if he is not getting the job done down back he could be moved forward where he would be a dangerous option.

7. Brisbane

You know I am not playing favourites as I have the player I least like out of the main midfield prospects falling to the Lions. I am sorry to all his fans but at the moment I do not rate Hartlett. He is someone I could easily see falling to the Lions come draft day and if we took him I will be praying that I am completely wrong about him and he turns into a star. The Lions have come out in the media on several occasions saying that they will take a midfielder this year. Despite having Black, Power, Johnstone and Adcock in the midfield the Lions need more grunt. The other need is at small forward and a lot of experts have Yarren in the top 10 and as a consequence I am not ruling him out. I would hope we do what we said though and take a midfielder. I have no idea when Swift is going to go but I think Voss having undertaken a major clean out can afford to take the risk. It has been widely reported that Voss rated Swift as the best U16 he has ever seen. So we know he rates him, the question is will he rate enough to take the huge risk. Maybe, maybe not. I am hoping Zeibell or Sidebottom fall to here and we take one of those but if we end up with Swift I won’t be too disappointed.

Thomas Swift (DOB – 6/7/90, Ht – 192, Wt – 84)

Swift will be a mystery to most as not many have seen him actually play given that he has been out for most of the last two years. For the record I am amongst the majority who have not seen him play. He had a complete reconstruction and missed all of last year and played only 4 or so fairly ordinary games this year before going down with a more minor PCL injury to his good knee. That minor injury and reported growing pains (apparently he is up to 192 now) kept him out for the rest of the year. So he hasn’t played for two years so why are people still talking about him as a potential first round pick despite the enormous risks associated with taking him? Well it’s because he might well have been considered the number one prospect in this draft class coming out of under 16s. He had a phenomenal U16 Champs in 2006 with 40 possession games and leading Div 1 by a large margin in possessions as well in handballs, marks, short kicks, contested possessions, uncontested possessions, handball receives and clearances. He is a 192cm in and under player who is an elite runner capable of getting possessions at will. The published Camp results were hugely encouraging for him showing that he has not lost his explosiveness. At Camp he came in 5th in the 20m with a very nice 2.89, 3rd in the vertical leap and 9th in the beep test. I would have liked to see how his agility test went as that would have been telling. His aptitude tests would also have been more important than virtually anyonw else given the lack of any recent games. Skills wise it remains to be seen how his knee problems affect his penetration and the time out has affected his skill level overall. My understanding are that his skills were considered solid although not exceptional ie better than DeBoer worse than Rich. Off the field he is also a very impressive young guy and is exceptionally bright. He has worked hard on his recovery as his results in camp showed. This is the ultimate high risk high reward pick and where he will end up is a bit of a mystery. It is worth noting that all 16 teams interviewed and had a look at his knee at Camp. I don’t think the teams have much more idea than anyone else.

 

[Quigley]

8. Richmond

Richmond I think will be happy to sit back and pick up whoever drops. Their biggest need is probably in the ruck where they need to start planning for life after Simmonds. Similarly they could use a small forward with Deledio playing more in the midfield and Brown nearing the end. Some more class in the midfield would also be helpful although probably not an immediate need. Yarran I think would get a long look here assuming he is available but I have had them taking Vickery for some time and I am sure the Tigers would like to pick him up if they could.

Tyrone Vickery (DOB – 31/5/90, Ht – 200, Wt – 89)

Vickery is the highest rated of the many ruck sized utilities available this year. I also have him rated the highest of those players because unlike most Vickery actually has legitimate ruck height and reasonable (although not great) rucking skills. The problem though with all of these players is that none of them really specialise in any one position and it is extremely rare for any of these types of players to ever become elite in either the ruck or key position. Okay I have a question for you – who was the number 1 ruck for Vic Metro? That would have been McKernan. Okay he also looked impressive in the forward line so who was the number 1 forward for Vic Metro that got the number 1 defender? That would have been Watts. So a nice second stringer is a virtually certain to be taken in the top 10 and maybe as high as 4. I am sorry but if I am taking someone in the top 10 I want that person to be at least the number 1 option at their position at junior level. Hey call me crazy. Anyway the positives – he has great height especially when he goes forward and has very good hands both overhead and below the knees. His ability below the knees is particularly impressive for a man of his size. He is a courageous player who is not afraid to commit to a contest and will work to chase down and tackle players in his area. He uses his height well in the marking contest and is a pretty good kick for goal. In the ruck he seems a pretty good technician although note that he had less than half the taps that Naitanui had at the Champs. He has come back superbly well from losing virtually all of last year to knee surgery and recruiters will be well aware that most players tend to take more than a year to get back fully from knee surgery so there is potential for more than we have seen this year.

9. North Melbourne

With North’s finances continuing to be very delicate they have to continue to win and I think their selection will reflect this. Some class in the middle would help and if Hartlett falls as I think he would get a long look here as would Blease although both are still very light and probably a year or two away from contributing. McKernan given his family ties to the club and his superb Camp is also likely to be seriously considered. But in the interests of winning now I am taking a player who is very undervalued on Big Footy – Robinson. I only have one reservation if Robinson goes to North in the real thing – it kills him off as a dream team prospect next year.

Mitch Robinson (DOB – 7/6/89, Ht – 188, Wt – 77)
Overaged player who has come from nowhere before the Champs to be a virtually certain first round pick in my book. He lead all players in disposals in the second stage of the Champs with 110 disposals across the 5 games and was second in contested possessions. He was Tasmania’s best player throughout the Champs. In the Div 2 Champs he played mostly an outside role but did more inside work when the Div 1 side of things rolled around and was getting his fair share of clearances. He reminds me quite a bit Cale Morton – he is a tall thin mainly outside player who runs well, reads the play well and is a key link man who his team mates look to use him at every opportunity. He has excellent vision and the options he takes are usually first class. His disposal is pretty good although when combined with his vision and option taking and a good feel for weighting his kicks it often appears very good indeed. He is a player who makes his disposals count and has definite hurt factor. Pace wise he seems good although not exceptional and during the Champs he went all day and kept racking them up indicating a good motor. He likes the run and carry side of the game, has good balance and breaks the lines well. He can take a good contested mark and is a persistent tackler who will keep his feet and follow the ball. He crunched a few guys who got near him in the Champs. In the Vic Country game he was matched up on Zeibell for a while and I thought he had the better of Zeilbell all things considered. I think he will start on the wing in the AFL but with his ability to read the ball off hands and his quick hands in close I think he could spend his fair share of time in the square as he develops. His age might count against him a little but teams will factor in that he has only been in the system this year and the massive improvement he has shown might well indicate that there is a bit more developing to go yet. At his age I would expect him to play next year. He needs to bulk up a bit but he is quite strong. He won the medal for the most outstanding Div 2 player and was AA this year. He played senior football for much of the year and was up there in the best and fairest count when all was said and done.

10. Adelaide

The Crows are rebuilding on the run and how well the likes of Dangerfield, Tippett and Walker perform will determine how successful they will be. With some of their class small players reaching the end of their career the Crows will be searching for those types of players I think come draft day given the first round midfielders this year are very strong. The likes of Blease, Swift and Robinson are all in the picture here. If things fall the way I have outlined I think the Crows won’t hesitate to take the local product in Hartlett. After passing on Ebert last year (who has looked very good for WC) and taking a guy who stayed in Vic for most of the year, Rendell might get strung up if he overlooked Hartlett this year.

Hamish Hartlett (DOB – 14/8/90, Ht – 182, Wt – 74)

Coming into the Champs he was easily the most highly regarded of the SA players and coming out of the Champs that remained the case. Despite that though I am sure a few team recruiters would have been disappointed with his performance overall and a few flags might have been raised. He was heavily tagged in the Champs and apart from the last game against NSW he struggled to have much of an impact. His best game though was in the televised game against NSW and so many of us amateurs may have gotten a false impression of his Championship form. First the good – he has very good endurance and will appear all over the field. He is also very balanced in the contest, is strong in the tackle and holds his feet extremely well. He can break the lines and step around defenders well. Off hands he reads where the ball is going very well and collects the ball pretty cleanly in contested situations. He is still fairly slight in the upper body but his legs are pretty solid and he looks like he will fill out. He is an aggressive tackler and will get in and put his head over the ball. Coming into the champs the big selling point for Hartlett was his elite disposal. For me I have serious doubts about that. This year one of the commentators said of Travis Johnstone that he had the worst “elite” disposal in the competition and I feel much the same way about Hartlett. He seems to read play pretty well but he just misses too many targets. In the NSW game I counted 8 times that he missed targets and turned the ball over. He often looks good kicking the ball but for all that it looks pretty it doesn’t get where it is supposed to go consistently enough. Add to that that he duffs kicks pretty regularly. He has senior experience in SA and given the issues that remain I have concerns that putting him into an AFL situation might not be able to iron the problems. He has reasonable but not great athleticism and really struggled to break the tags that he picked up at the Champs. Every year there are a few players who are highly regarded on Big Footy who fall when the real stuff begins. This year Hartlett is one who I would not be surprised to see closer to the end of the first round rather than the beginning. It was interesting to note that McCartney made a coment that Hartlett needed to prepare for games better. Usually you struggle to get a negative word out of McCartney and that kind of comment sends up red flags for me and I think there must be a pretty serious issue for him to say anything.

11. Collingwood

Collingwood desperately need a class ball winner in the midfield. They have focussed on their key positions the last few years and have some good prospects which they will look to give more time to next year. The midfield though is a different story and although I expect Clarke to join Pendlebury in the midfield next year full time, both are generally outside players. Thomas has also not developed into the midfielder that the Pies probably hoped he might. The problem for the Pies is that I have a serious run on midfielders and at Collingwood’s pick some of the better prospects might be gone. The guy who I think would really suit the Pies is Robinson and I think there is a fair chance that he might be there on the day. Blease could also be there but I think he is a little bit too much like Pendlebury and Clarke and Collingwood need someone who can win the ball a bit more consistently than Blease has shown this year. Collingwood are also one of the teams who I think might take Swift if he is there as they could really use his skill set. That leaves one midfield prospect who I really like and who seems to be a bit overlooked as a first round prospect this year. People I think see Walters as a small forward and although I see him starting up there I think he will be a career midfielder and a top shelf one at that within a few years. Given he is likely to start up forward he might struggle for game time next year but if Collingwood are patient he will reward them.

Michael Walters (DOB – 7/1/91, Ht – 177, Wt – 75)

With the success of Rioli this year a lot of teams will be keeping their eyes out for similar types of players in the hope of lightning striking twice. I was a huge Rioli fan last year and this year I think Walters is likely to be as close as you are going to get to Cyril. He does not quite have the same vision and option taking ability and his disposal although good is somewhat below that of Rioli. I think there is little doubt that both will end up in the midfield long term but both will play a couple of years up forward whilst they build up their body and their endurance. Walters is a very nice runner and is quick and very evasive and he can weave through traffic with the best of them. He has a very nice leap and plays quite a bit taller than his 177cm list height. Playing on the HFF and in the middle he lead the Champs in marks with 29 – impressive given his height and where he played. His hands are very clean both overhead and in the contest. He is very much a one touch player. He has great kicking skills and is a left footer who can deliver it lace out over a pretty good distance. He is most impressive delivering into the 50 and he had 16 inside 50s in the Champs to go along with his 7 goals. His defensive pressure is very good and he uses his pace to pressure the ball coming out of his area well. Walters is a bottom aged, indigenous player and is still fairly slight and as a consequence I would not expect to see much of him next year. That being said though he is very talented and a team taking him this year will get very good value for this potential match winner. On his midfield potential it is worth noting that in the U16 Champs last year he lead Div 1 in disposals, clearances and effective kicks (as well as goals actually). Coming back from the Champs he played senior football for Swan Districts and did well. He is a little shorter than you would like but he is a prospect that has been overlooked a lot.

12. Sydney

The Swans desperately need to start looking for some key position forwards and they have to start doing it here. I think there are likely to be a couple of good forward options available here including Johnston who I see as a wide roaming CHF in the AFL. I am not sure he will ever be a big goal scorer though so that’s why I am going with Cornelius who I think will develop into a very good player. Being a Tasmanian also takes away the go home factor to fair extent. If Yarran falls to here though I would not be surprised if the Swans decided to take him. He is a great talent but I think the need for a KPF outweighs the desire for the slightly more talented small forward.

Aaron Cornelius (DOB – 29/5/90, Ht – 192, Wt – 84)

Coming into the Champs I thought he was easily the best Div 2 prospect out there and a definite top 10 pick. When he got to Div 1 company though his stocks took a major hit somewhat unfairly I think. The Div 1 teams loaded up against him knowing that the other Tasmanian players were not going to hurt them. In the AFL even the best forwards struggle when double and triple teamed and that is what Cornelius faced in the Champs. Notwithstanding that I thought he went okay although I think he was frustrated a bit and dropped his head a bit and did not work as hard has he should have from time to time. Despite all of that I think he is an excellent full forward prospect who will probably be taken a little lower than his worth and he will make the team who takes him very glad that they did. Okay firstly the good – he quite simply has the best hands of anyone available this year and he will mark anything that comes near him. When you combine his fantastic hands with excellent judgement of the ball in flight and timing of his jumps and movement you have a very difficult match up for a backman. In tight he has very quick hands and feeds the ball out very well. In the Div 2 games his 1%ers and his work for his teammates were a highlight but in the Div 1 games I thought he let this drop away when he got frustrated. When he is in the AFL it will be emphasised that he must keep the effort up and it is certain that he can do it very well. There has been criticism of his pace and he is certainly not the quickest but is comparable with other prospects like Hurley. He creates separation well and by way of a guide to his pace I noted in one contest at the Champs he outpaced Sidebottom (not exactly a burner I realise but still) over about 20 metres reasonably comfortably. Kicking wise he is reasonable without being elite and will kick goals out to the 50. At the moment he splits time between FF and CHF and seems to have a reasonable tank covering a fair bit of ground. That being said though I expect him to be a FF once he develops and the player I could compare him to most would be Daniel Bradshaw. Body wise he needs to develop a fair bit more and is still very much a teenaged boy in physique. He is a player I like and one I expect to succeed at AFL level. Its interesting that in an article on the AFL site he says that he sees himself as a third tall playing perhaps an O’Keefe type role. If he is going to do that he needs to improve his endurance a lot and I just don’t see it myself.

13. St Kilda

The Saints need some speed in the midfield and they could also use another goal scoring option up forward. The Saints could decide to take the risk on Swift and if Yarran is available he would have to be a big chance here as well. Walters, Blease and Robinson would also get a long look if they have not been taken. That being said though I am going with Johnston who could well turn into a Reiwoldt clone. With both of them playing up front opposition teams are going to have extreme difficulty matching up on both. Johnston gives the Saints another wide ranging, mobile marking target that will create space for Reiwoldt and Kosi. I just think he would do more for their structure than anyone else available and so would be the best pick for them.

Lewis Johnston (DOB – 3/3/91, Ht – 192, Wt - 87)

For me Johnston as a bottom aged player is the premier centre half forward prospect available this year. He is a true centre half forward who can take the big mark inside 50 but is also comfortable out beyond the 50. He has very impressive hands and lead the Champs in contested marks with 16 to go with his 9 goals. He is not a huge possession winner but does make his possessions count. He had 4 goal assists and is a very team oriented player who does the disciplined thing to advantage his team mates (although he can give away a few frees with lapses in discipline). His 1%ers were also a feature and were his second efforts. Kicking for goal he will easily get the distance from 50 and around the ground his skills and vision seem to be up in the top few key positions available. He moves well, gets out on the lead and plays in front more often than not. The way he plays the CHF position reminds me of Jonathan Brown in that he is good on the lead but is happy coming well up the ground to get the ball. He is not especially tall for a key position but plays tall. He is pretty quick off the mark and did a 3.04 at Camp in the 20m. His tank also seems pretty good for a bottom aged key position. Being a bottom aged key position you also have to think there is a lot of development left in him. He also had to do a lot of travel this year to training and for games and this made things more difficult for him this year. He did wear down a little toward the end of the year. Given his ceiling I think he could easily end up as a top 10 pick and if you got him after that you should count yourself very lucky.

14. Western Bulldogs

The Saints bid a first rounder forcing the Bulldogs to use pick 14 for Cordy under the father son rules. It was pretty much a no brainer for the Bulldogs and without injury Cordy could easily have gone a fair bit higher if he was on the open market. The Bulldogs need to succession planning in the ruck. With the delisting of Street this is all the more prevalent although Cordy is a couple of years away from being ready physically for the AFL.

Ayce Cordy (DOB 6/8/90, Ht – 202, Wt – 77)

Very tall stick insect who once he puts some weight on should be first class ruck option for the Bulldogs. He was the tallest of the attendees at draft camp this year measuring in at 201.7 and when you combine that with a pretty good jump you have a guy who is going to get fairly high up in the air. His ruck skills are okay but at the moment he is nowhere near strong enough to hold his position against AFL rucks. In most years we would be raving about his athleticism but Natanui puts him in the shade so not much has been said about it. I think he compares very favourably with most of the first rucks running around and he is certainly not going to be disadvantaged in that regard. As mentioned he has a good jump on him and when that is combined with his good hands he is a serious marking threat. He moves around the ground very well and accumulates possessions nicely. His disposal skills are okay but could use some work. Cordy put in one of the real stand out performances of the draft camp for me in the agility test. This extremely tall guy who is still growing into his body pulled out the 5th best agility time with an 8.27. He presents a pretty big target so I am not thinking of that in terms of his work in traffic but more for turning circle and changing direction when he rests up forward and down back. At camp he did a 3.05 in the 20m sprint which is pretty good for a big guy and would add to his allure. Injury issues kept him out for most of the year and with him playing school football last year there is some question marks about his matching up with better quality opposition but really he has a lot of tools that make him an attractive prospect.

15. Geelong

Geelong have a fair few players in their first 22 who are starting to get a bit long in the tooth and the Cats have to start looking at replacing them. I am thinking mainly of Scarlett and Milburn at the moment. The Cats though are in the enviable position of having very good depth across the board so could pick purely on talent if they wished. If they went on talent alone they would have to go with Yarran. Blease would also be a big possibility if he is available especially since losing Prismall. I think though that they do try and pick someone to replace Milburn and for that reason I am going with O’Keefe who is a player with the skills to step in and play the Cats style of play right from the start. He can also play forward of the centre very well and could fill the Chapman role if needed.

Rhys O’Keefe (DOB – 8/8/90, Ht – 187, Wt – 80)

Whereas you often have guys on Big Footy who become flavour of the month and are pumped up a lot more than is realistic there are others who are overlooked by most for no apparent reason. O’Keefe falls squarely into the latter category. You read the player reviews and I am yet to see a bad thing written about him and yet hardly anyone has him going earlier than the late second round. For me I think he could easily be a sneaky late first rounder. Played predominantly on the half back flank in the Champs but moved to half forward against NSW and showed that he could also be a very dangerous half forward at AFL level. The thing that sets O’Keefe apart from virtually everyone in this draft is the quality of his disposal. He is probably in the top 5 for me as far as quality of disposal goes. He is a left footer who reads the play very well and delivers into the 50 as well as anyone available this year. He has good height for a midfield / flanker and is a solid young guy. He covers a fair bit of ground and although he does not have great pace he seems to be able to create separation from his match up fairly easily. He has good hands including overhead and can take a good mark. His quality kicking skills extend to his kicking for goal. He is a player who is made to play modern, high possession AFL football in the Geelong style. He came a bit from nowhere this year after really getting fit for the first time. This to me signals that there is a fair bit of development left in him and I think he is going to be attractive to quite a few teams.

16. Hawthorn

Despite their backs really stepping up in the grand final I think it is widely recognised that the Hawks biggest weakness is their KPD. There aren’t a lot of big defenders available this year and I expect the Hawks to use their first pick to take the best one available. I think they will be looking at the likes of Trengove, Lisle or perhaps even Lynch who I think may end up a CHB in the mould of Bolton or Patfull. The guy I am having them take though is currently a forward who has the tools to be a very good defender. Schoenmakers is not the lowest risk option (neither is he the highest) but he might be the most talented.

Ryan Schoenmakers (DOB – 8/11/90, Ht – 194, Wt – 85)

Where Schoenmakers goes in this draft will be very interesting. Despite looking taller and having played most of his junior football as a key position he was listed in the Champs at 189cm. At that height he was a marginal prospect but it has been reported on Big Footy that he measured in at Camp at 193 - 194. At that height he is in definite contention for the first round I think although perhaps early second round is more likely. He is likely to start his AFL career as a third tall in attack and his speed sets him apart from other third tall prospects. He is exceptionally quick off the mark, has very nice agility and he has a good leap. He won the repeat sprints beating all the well known burners (24.82), was 6th in the 20m sprint (2.90) and was 7th in the vertical jump (69cm). He is also strong and uses that strength of body well to hold his position in the marking contest. He is a very smart forward who reads the ball in flight very well. His hands are good and he has a good left foot kick although he struggles to get the distance from 50. Interestingly he is probably as good on his non-dominant right foot. His kicking style often varies when kicking for goal and he uses a high drop which I don’t like. He is a smooth mover around the ground and is a bit of an excitement machine. As well as playing as a forward I think Schoenmakers has all the tools to be an exceptionally good defender. His speed and agility would allow him to go with the games premier forwards and his ability to read the play would allow him to cheat as needed. He needs to develop a bit to hold his own in wrestling matches but that will come with a little time.

 

[Quigley]

17. Melbourne

As mentioned at the top of the draft Melbourne have holes all over the ground and accordingly I think it is safe to say they will take the best available with all three of their first early picks. If Swift was available here I think they will take him as they really have little to lose and everything to gain by taking him with their extra pick. The WA boys Swift and Morton could potentially be a great one two punch in their midfield for the next 10 years. Both have the potential to be star players in the AFL. If Blease is still on the board I also expect him to be hard for the Demons to resist. As it is Yarran is on the board and I think the Demons have to take him notwithstanding that small forward is actually reasonably solid for Melbourne. Wona and Davey are good options up front but Yarran could take their small forward brigade to a whole other level.

Christopher Yarran (DOB – 19/12/90, Ht – 180, Wt – 84)

Where Yarran ends up going is extremely hard to judge. I was a fan last year but probably less so this year notwithstanding that he has been more impressive this year and has performed well against senior company. The reason – last year I thought Yarran would end up being a midfielder capable of going forward and kicking goals. This year I have serious doubts that he will be a midfield option and accordingly I am valuing him as a small forward only. As a small forward he looks a very good prospect but they are notoriously difficult to pick and even the good ones are horribly inconsistent. Pure small forwards rarely go higher than the late teens even quality prospects like Maric and Jetta. I see him going somewhere in the teens but I am not sure if some teams might see him going higher – note that Mike Sheehan mentioned him in September as one of the options to go number 1 and virtually every professional expert has him in their top ten. I can’t see him going top 5 myself but it goes to show that he does have admirers and they are people who know what they are about usually. What you are looking at is a very elusive, one touch player who has a great nose for a goal. He is not that great overhead and I would not expect many goals to come from big marks. What he does do very well is use his body and superior ball in flight reading ability to move his opposition player away or under the ball and allow him to get to it. Below the knees his hands seem to be much better and cleaner when he is working up forward and his kicking around the ground also seem to be better up forward rather than when he was working in the midfield. He picked up 38 goals in the WAFL this year for Swan Districts so you know performing in senior company is not going to overawe him and there is every chance he will play next year and play very well. His weight is a bit of a concern for me as he is carrying a bit of puppy fat at the moment and I think he has the physique that indicates that he is likely to have a career long struggle to keep the weight off. Despite carrying a little bit of condition on him he is still very quick on the lead and is hard to cover (he was 13th at Camp in the repeat sprint). I may have been a little bit unfair here as he has had injury issues this year. Early in the year he had ankle ligament damage that put him out for 6 or 7 weeks and then before the finals he was restricted with a hamstring injury. Prior to the injury he was playing more through the midfield but after the injury he was played mostly as a forward. I am sticking with my prognosis of him being a forward only but there might be a pretty good chance that I might be wrong on this one given the injury issues. There have also been some questions floating around about his attitude and concerns that moving him from WA might be a risk (ie he is a major go home candidate). He can also appear lazy on the field although I think laconic might be a better description. He comes from a dysfunctional family and his father is currently in prison. His attitude to this was reported very positively in the WA press and he comes across as very much willing to work hard and do the things necessary to ensure that that type of thing never happens to him. Taking these things together and from the games I have seen this year it should not surprise you the player he reminds me most of is Jeff Farmer both the good and the bad. He is an extremely talented player but there are significant risks in taking him.

18. West Coast

West Coast would be absolutely stoked if a player with the talent of Blease fell to them here especially if they went with Naitanui in the first round. Realistically I think it unlikely but not out of the question. I think West Coast are likely to again go for midfielders with these picks and Swift, Walters, Hill and O’Keefe would all be in contention if available. Oh and because Sinepari is sick and tired of everyone giving West Coast Walters and Hill I am not having them take those players.

Sam Blease (DOB 19/2/91, Ht – 183, Wt – 73)

Extremely classy bottom aged player who has had an injury interrupted beginning of the year when he had OP issues and had surgery apparently. He was still recovering during the Champs and played only three of the 5 matches and in the matches he did play he had limited time on ground. Notwithstanding the cameo performance in which he picked up only 30 disposals across the three games he impressed many and could very easily go very high. In all honesty I would not be surprised if he had a meteoric rise much in the way Pendlebury did a few years ago. He has an extremely high ceiling and could end being a player a lot like Pendlebury although the player he reminds me of most is Ackermanis as a young player. He is a great mover who seems to glide across the ground, is extremely elusive and has elite speed and endurance. His second efforts are also fantastic and he keeps himself in contests and follows on exceptionally well to create plays. His kicking skills are at an elite level and his ability to hit players inside 50 is right up there with Rich. Blease can laser his right foot kicks but he is also as good on his non preferred left as virtually anyone in this draft. He is a big run and carry guy and hits his targets well on the run. He is also a goal kicker given the opportunity. At AFL level I think he will continue to play the outside in role we have seen him play at junior levels. That is, he will start outside the square but will follow the contests and will win his own ball at the ruck contests around the ground. He runs to space extremely well and positions himself where he can be dangerous. He gives his teammates options. He is also another who tackles well and has a bit of fire in his belly. At the moment he is still very light and I think it likely that he might spend a lot of next year building up and not play much in the AFL. The biggest concern out there is that he doesn’t get enough possessions to warrant a high pick but when you factor in the fact that he is bottom aged, has had a very interrupted year with injury and he showed last year he can find the ball well I think he will be fine in this regards. The biggest concern for me is that he has been struck down already with OP and that is why I have dropped him down my list a fair bit. He did not kick on as much as hoped after the Champs although that might have had a bit to do with the slight knee injury that he carried at the end of the season. He was back up to speed literally at Camp putting up very good speed figures (2nd in the repeat sprints with 24.97 and 7th in the 20m sprint with 2.91) and also pulling out a good vertical leap height (70cm which was good for 5th overall). As a bottom aged player this guy excites me a lot and I think if he can get over the injury issues he will be a steal for whoever takes him.

19. Melbourne

Given the lack of depth of key positions it would not surprise me if the Demons went with two key position in their first three picks. McKernan, Lisle, Lynch or even the likes of Davis could be a chance here. McKernan could go anywhere from 9 on and if Melbourne got him here I think they would be very happy.

Shaun McKernan (DOB – 1/9/90, Ht – 196, Wt – 95)

Usually teams will not pay a huge amount of attention to the draft camp results (they mostly go in knowing what to expect) but McKernan’s performance would have made a lot of teams sit up and reconsider. He was phenomenal and certainly surprised me. He has a bit of a lumbering running style which disguises just how quick and athletic he is. He is a very big boy (tall and heavy) and I just was not expecting him to pull out a 2.95 in the 20m sprint, 8.31 in the agility test (6th overall) and a 74cm vertical jump (2nd overall). Despite all the good though I have a big issue with the fact that he is a classic tweener. At junior level he was a ruck who played a bit of key position. In the AFL he will be a key position who plays an occasional bit of ruck. He is just not tall enough to be a fulltime AFL ruckman. At the champs he played some time down back floating into the hole but I did not really rate him back there. I am not sure he has a real backman mentality and I don’t think his field kicking is good enough. He looked a much better prospect when he went into the forward line. Not unsurprisingly when you see his speed and agility scores, he manages to get separation fairly easily and his hands are reasonable in the marking contest. As a forward though I just don’t see him as a big goal scorer. He will get you a goal or maybe two a game but rarely if ever will he get you a bag. He doesn’t have great goal sense and tends to lead to spots that are not really very dangerous. One thing I do like is his competitiveness. When he is on the field he is on the angry pills and doesn’t mind dishing out a bit of legal punishment if he gets the chance. I think he is the kind of player who would lift the intensity level of those around him. At the next level I think he will be a nice complementary forward who can do short relief at the ruck but I do not see him as a star.

20. West Coast

If West Coast go with Rich in the first round it would not surprise me for them to go with a ruck type player with this pick. Someone like McKernan, Trengove or Redden could be in contention. If they take Naitanui at 2 I think they will take small / mediums at 18 and 20. Hill has been talked up to a ridiculous extent by Freo I think and there is no way he will go at 3. If he lasts to 20 though you would have to think West Coast would take him here. Notwithstanding that I do not rate Hill so I am going with a guy who I do rate and someone who I think will make his team as a whole better. These are just the types of players young teams like West Coast should be building around.

Nick Suban (DOB – 9/5/90, Ht – 179, Wt – 82)

Suban is a blue collar warrior who you know is going to give you 100% every time he runs out on the park. Everybody assumes that he will play off half back but he could just as easily play in the midfield as an in and under. He played both positions for Vic Country extremely well and was an AA both last year and this year at U18 level. There is not a lot of flash in Suban’s game but does read play pretty well especially from the back and he can kick a long way although he kicks to contests too much. Defensively he is pretty good and has performed very well at U18 level but there will be some concerns about his ability to match up against the small / medium forwards at AFL level. He is a bit on the short side and I had some concerns about his pace but he tested pretty well at camp and that would have gone some way to reassuring teams who would be looking at him around this stage. At camp he performed pretty well overall doing a 3.04 in the 20m sprint and 8.25 in the agility test (4th overall). He is a pretty well built young guy and looks like he will have a short powerful build by the time he is finished. He is a very smart player who outthinks most of the players he matches up on and he reads play very well also. The other big positive for Suban is his leadership. He along with Zeibell are probably the stand out leaders this year and he is the kind of guy who always puts the team first. He does the 1%ers very well and you know that he will put his body on the line and lay the crunching shepherd. He is a tough hard at it player who will lead his team through a brick wall. There are definitely worse prospects available this year and he is someone who you want on your side.

21. Fremantle

Okay I know my pick for the Dockers at 24 is not going to be popular so I am giving them a player here who is very popular on Big Footy as a balancer. I do however have big concerns about him which is why I have him falling. His in between size though might actually suit the Dockers pretty well as they have a dominant ruck in Sandilands who is going to monopolise ruck TOG and Trengove could slot into the backline to rest the key positions there whilst also playing back up ruck. This is probably the type of role I think he is ideally suited for in the AFL. It is also highly possible that the Dockers could continue to build up there midfield. If they go that route this is probably the earliest that deBoer is likely to be considered and Zaharakis and Hill are also likely to get a long look and Suban if he is available might be the best of the lot for the Dockers. He offers them some of the grunt that they really need and he is a leader and leadership is in short supply in the Dockers locker room.

Jackson Trengove (DOB – 2/11/90, Ht – 196.5, Wt – 88.5)

Trengove is a very interesting pick for a couple of reasons. Firstly he is a another tweener. He has been more of a ruck than a key position player at junior level and although he has shown some excellent ruck skills (especially in big games) the cold hard facts are that he does not have the height to be a ruck at AFL level. He has played some defensive key position and has shown some aptitude in doing so. He is not that experienced in that area though and the team taking him will be taking a risk that he can take those huge steps required to make it at AFL level. That being said before his injury he had good athleticism, was good around the ground, had good skills and seemed to be a good read of the play. The second main concern is how much his injury has affected his athleticism. He ruptured the lateral ligament in his knee and tore the hamstring off the bone but was expected to make a full recovery. He made an appearance at draft camp but I am not sure whether he participated in much if anything. I do know he weighed in 11 kgs heavier than before the injury so if would also be interesting to see how the extra weight has affected his run, leap and change of direction. Those suffering from bad knee injuries often also lose some penetration on their kicks and it will be interesting to see if is able to get all the way back on that front as well. He is a very competitive character who rises to the challenge and that would hold him in good store. Overall I think he is a much more significant risk than many on here believe and I have dropped down the draft list a bit. He would ideally suit a team where he could play like Ryder does for Essendon, that is playing mostly down the back but relieving in the ruck occasionally.

22. Port Adelaide

If Port go for a mid first up expect them to take a ruck here and vice versa. Port could look to pick someone to play the Peter Burgoyne role at some stage in this draft and guys like O’Keefe come into contention. On the day I expect Hill to be gone by now but if here were here he would be someone I couldn’t see them going past him. As it is I have them going small first up so I think they have to go tall here and grab the best ruck available and for me that is Redden. Redden is one of the few genuine rucks available this year and I think he will be a quality player for whoever takes him. I must admit though I am usually hopeless at picking where rucks go so I could easily be way off the mark about where he gets taken. Still I like Redden and think he would fit well into the Port scheme.

Jarrad Redden (DOB – 27/12/90, Ht – 202, Wt – 88)

In a year where there is a lot of ruck part timers who are likely to be taken pretty highly I would be looking very closely at this guy if I wanted someone who could actually win the ball in the ruck contest. I think he is probably behind Naitanui only as a ruck technician. He controls his taps very well and regularly directs the ball down the throat of his midfielders. His follow up work on his taps is also very good and again is probably as good as anyone not named Natanui. He has very good height and moves well around the ground. He uses his height well in contests and can take a good contested mark. He reads the flight of the ball well and you will often see him float in from the side of a contest to take the mark. By foot his skills are very good for a big man and he has a nice flat right foot kick. He is still very young with his birthday being right at the end of December and needs to put on a fair bit of weight before he is going to be able to play AFL football. It is worth considering as well that he comes from a basketball background and has played very little before this year. His development has been very strong this year and you would think there is a fair bit left in him yet. I don’t think he is likely to be ever be a key position prospect as he lacks the pace and agility necessary. To start his career I think he will be a traditional style ruck who will do the centre bounce and then either go forward or back. Whether he can become a possession ruck will depend on how quickly they can build up his tank.

23. Essendon

If the Dons go big with the first pick with Hurley or someone similar expect them to take a midfielder here. If they go with a midfielder with their first pick I think they will go big here and Lisle might well be someone who they would be looking at closely. If they are going small Essendon I think they might look to go with Zaharakis. They are going to be losing a lot of their leadership group over the last couple of years and Zaharakis has as good leadership skills as anyone likely to be available. The other thing he would add is some pace to the midfield. I know the Dons have added a fair bit of pace over the last few years but they could still use a bit more in their in and under group and Zaharakis would be handy in this regard. The guy who I am going with though could play big or small and I think will add significantly to the professionalism of the group.

Tom Lynch (DOB – 15/9/90, Ht – 191, Wt – 84)

Lynch is a warrior and is someone who will do whatever it takes to succeed in the AFL. He is someone teammates are going to want to go to war with and will lift the professionalism of the team he ends up on. Some commentators see him as a third tall at AFL level and he played that role a bit at the Champs but for me I think he will be best suited as a running CHB. He is slightly undersized but this is an era where undersized CHBs seem to be in vogue. Bolton and Patfull are both highly effective CHBs who are no taller than Lynch and I think he could play a similar role for whoever picks him up. He might even add a bit more than those two going the other way. He got a lot of the ball at the Champs up on the wing and regularly got even more of it at TAC level. As with most AIS talls he is good athletically and at camp finished 12th in the repeat sprint (25.67) and was 9th in the beep test (14.1). He is still pretty thin at the moment but looks like he will fill out well. He is a strong runner and uses his strength to break tackles. He is pretty good in the air although not as good as some of the elite guys in this draft. More than anything else though what I like is that he just keeps working out on the field. He makes space and works to good positions to receive the ball. That is a very underrated skill. He is also a smart player who reads the play well and often seems to be thinking a step ahead of the opposition. Teams will also note that he is coming off a full knee reconstruction last year and provided there is no lasting damage he is likely to better his second year back from the surgery and will hopefully regain the little bit of explosiveness he seemed to have lost this year over last. He was extremely professional with his recovery and left no stone unturned. When he gets into a full time environment I expect him to be a workout warrior who will inspire his teammates.

24. Fremantle

As mentioned above I realise this is not going to be popular with the Freo fans but too friggin bad. Rolfe would actually suit them very well with Farmer’s departure. He could start out in the pocket as a crumber but in the longer term he could contribute very well to the Freo midfield which is in desperate need itself. Like Wona last year Rolfe might be a hidden gem from the NT.

Peter Rolfe (DOB – 5/10/89, Ht – 182, Wt – 82)

I rate Rolfe and I am going to have him taken high notwithstanding that I haven’t seen him in anyone else’s mock to date. I was one of the few that had Wona in his mock last year and Rolfe could very easily have the same kind of impact this year. He was one of the better players for NT at the Champs last year and was the best player for them this year in my opinion. Last year he played mostly up front and picked up a few goals but this year played mostly in the midfield. He won a lot of ball in the middle and was the clear leader through the middle of the ground for NT. He is strong over the ball, reads the ball well off hands, has good awareness of what is around him and holds his feet very well in the contest. He has good hands in close and his kicking and decision making is very good. He is quick and very elusive, runs well with the ball and works the corridor. He has a nice flat left foot kick from which he gets good penetration and clears 50 metres when needed. Wona last year played mostly in the middle as well for NT but was dangerous when he went forward. It is very much the same with Rolfe and I can see him starting his AFL career up front. As for his prospects up forward it is worth noting that in the SA testing he was third in the 20m sprint (2.94), won the agility test (8.22) and third in the vertical jump (74cm). Great results that could indicate what a difficult match up he presents for opposition teams and you would think that a few teams that haven’t seen much of him might go back to the tapes and take another look. He does need to work on his tank and apparently he did not perform well in the endurance testing. It is also worth noting that he played the Champs as an overage player. I have him going in the second round but I think on the day he is likely to go lower (perhaps he could even last to the rookie draft) but I can see a few teams wishing they picked him in the second round by the time he is finished.

25. Brisbane
Beams is a special for me at 25 and I think and unless someone the Lions really rate falls to them here I expect them to take Beams. It was much the same last year when the Lions had Whitecross lined up all the way only for Collier to fall to them. Same I think this year for beams. He is much more highly rated by recruitment staff than on Big Footy and I expect him to be taken at some stage in the second round. He provides the Lions with another good ball winner which is something we really need. If the Lions went with Yarran in the first I think Beams would be a lock however if they go for a midfielder it is possible we might look at a flanker like Heyne or even one of my favourites in Hall.

Dayne Beams (DOB – 12/2/90, Ht – 184, Wt – 81)

Beams is not rated at all on BigFooty largely because hardly anyone on here has seen him. He played for Qld in the Div 2 Champs but when Qld didn’t progress he disappeared off many peoples’ radars. At the Champs he had two excellent games where he got an absolute stack of possessions and one pretty ordinary game. I think he struggled against NSW because he was tagged a bit and he struggled to beat it. When he is given license to chase the ball and does not have anyone sitting in his pocket he looks very impressive. He has an excellent nose for the ball, reads the ball nicely off hands and he has good hands in tight. He seems to have that little bit of extra time that a lot of the really class inside mids have. This small thing is the thing which I think sets him apart from many in this draft and is why I would like to have him at my club. He has good size about him and retains his feet well in the contest and can take a reasonable mark. Athletically he has a reasonable tank and has reasonable pace but I don’t think he is close to elite in either category. His kicking is interesting. He has good long kick that will travel over 50 metres and he also has a nice stab pass for short and medium distances. Despite having the tools though he doesn’t have the hurt factor on his possessions that he should have and he has a tendency to kick to contests too much. He has been playing senior football for the AFLQ premiers all year and playing very well. He finished second in the AFLQ rising star an award judged in part by AFL recruiters and the ability to play AFL football is one of the criteria. A lot of teams would have had a close look at his match up against Darryl White in the AFLQ finals. He went head to head with the Brisbane premiership player and did extremely well with brilliant touch at ground level and handballing out of heavy traffic. It also showcased his athleticism against a bigger opponent very well. He was the only Queenslander invited to camp this year so there are a few teams out there that wanted a look at him. He has been mentioned in a couple of places as being a possible first rounder (admittedly Qld publications) and Sheehan did single him out as one of the 18 he reported on from camp and I would expect all of those to be likely top 30 picks. In short I think a few of the professionals rate him reasonably highly and he is likely to be taken somewhere in the first two rounds. He seems a quality in and under with good size and reasonable skills and those types of players are always in demand.

 

[Quigley]

26. Richmond

If Richmond go tall in the first round I expect them to go small in the second. If it is the other way around I think Lisle might go off the board here if he is still available As it stands I think they might go looking for a longer term replacement for Nathan Brown. Jetta and Rockliff may be chances and Hall is another who could add some class to the forward flank options given time. In the end though I went with another guy who can play forward or through the midfield and has a little bit of that X factor that you have a lot in premiership teams. The Tigers are starting to build up their bank of classy players and I don’t think they would overlook their opportunity to build on that here.

Nick Heyne (DOB – 22/7/90, Ht – 187, Wt – 79)

He is a player with a little bit of magic about him that excites quite a few. He has had some great games in the TAC but did not really take the step up in class at the Champs and this might worry some teams. He plays mainly as a HFF but does spend some time floating up into the midfield. He moves well across the ground, with good pace (7th at Camp in the 20m sprint with a 2.91) but his tank could be better (as a forward who relies on pace a bit I would have liked him to be in the top 10 in the repeat sprints but he was not). He is a left footer with excellent penetration who is capable of threading it from tight angles in the pocket. He has good touch delivering it to other forward prospects and weights his kicks well. He has a good leap (7th in Camp in the vertical leap with a 69cm), is a pretty good mark for his size and has good hands above his head and below the knees. He can really take over games and dominate the play for periods. On the other side of the coin though he also disappears for extended periods and as mentioned he struggled to have the same impact when he was playing for the Vic Country. Teams might be concerned that he does not work hard enough and his interviews I think are going to be very important to where he goes come draft day.

27. North Melbourne

With Boomer Harvey at the end of the road North would be happy to take someone who could turn out a lot like Boomer in Hall. He is a great little player who could develop very nicely in the no frills North environment and maybe add a touch of class to their midfield.

Christopher Hall (DOB – 25/6/90, Ht – 179, Wt – 65)

Hall is a player who probably needs to be stashed away for a year or so to put some weight on. He is very slight at the moment but if you are patient he could well be worth the wait. He has genuine pace and is a very evasive runner who works hard to get to space. What impressed me most with Hall is that unlike a lot of players with that kind of pace he has obviously worked on his endurance and he works extremely hard to get to contests and to space to give his players an outlet. Once he has done that hard work he can then use his pace and evasiveness to devastating effect. It was great to see that he performed at Camp where he won the beep test (14.6) and was 5th in the 3km (10.42). He can play inside and out and despite being a lightweight even at u18 level, he wins his fair share of clearances and he delivers the ball well. The weighting of his kicks is a feature of his game. Overall I think his disposal is better than most in the draft and certainly better than those likely to be taken around him. Up forward he is a capable goal sneak and will pick up his fair share of crumbing goals. This kid has the tools and I think will be a very nice player at AFL level. He is a personal favourite of mine and I would love him to go to a team that would develop him to his potential. If Brisbane picked him up in the third round I would be stoked. For me he is a second or third pick with the potential to make the recruitment staff look very smart for taking him.

28. Adelaide

If Davis is still here and Adelaide don’t take him I will be highly surprised. He suits their needs and is someone who Rendell in dispatches as being interested in at 10. 10 is a bit of a stretch I think but at 28 he would be a very nice pick up for the Crows especially as I have them going with a mid in the first round. If they decide to go small here I think they would look closely at another local product in Hall who is also a quality prospect and would add some needed pace to their midfield.

Phil Davis (DOB – 30/8/90, Ht – 192, Wt – 83)

Davis is a talented key position capable of playing at either end of the ground who unfortunately did his shoulder during the Vic Metro game at the Champs. He needed a full shoulder reconstruction and did not play again this year. He attended Camp and did interviews but did not do any of the physcial testing. Playing at CHB for SA he had been good on Watts up until that stage and its unfortunate that we didn’t get to see more of him. The injury is also likely to drop him down a round or two in the draft but given the shortage of quality defenders this year I still think he will be picked up somewhere. As I mentioned above he has played a fair bit of football as a forward and is a regular goal kicker but at AFL level I see him as a defender. He is disciplined at the back and given that he has also played some football through the middle he has excellent run and carry skills. He has reasonable height and the athleticism to stick with AFL forwards, reads play well and generally looks to have the tools to succeed at AFL level. Apparently for his club early in the year he ran a 3.02 in the 20m and an 11 minute 3km. I note Rendell from Adelaide seems pretty keen on him and he would be a big chance I think to end up there maybe in the second round.

29. Collingwood

In desperate need of inside help I can see the Magpies taking a risk on a guy who has all the tools to be a first class inside mid but does have one hole very significant hole in his game – his kicking. The two players who fit into this category are Zaharakis and DeBoer. Zaharakis has shown some development in his kicking and but might be around here. DeBoer might have a better all around game than Zaharakis but his kicking is also worse and has shown little improvement this year. If they go with DeBoer and they can fix his kicking he would be an absolute steal here and he would go a long way to filling their hole in the middle. It is also not like they are getting great kicking out of the current inside brigade.

David Zacharakis (DOB – 21/2/90, Ht – 180, Wt – 73)

Zacharakis is a top aged prospect who was overlooked last year and that is usually an indication of someone who not likely to be taken that high second time around. That being said I think the second round is about right for him this year. He was overlooked last year because he was a poor decision maker who couldn’t hit the side of a barn kicking wise and credit too him he has obviously put a lot of work into that area of his game between then and now. Although I would still have him middle of the pack disposal wise he is much, much better than last year and if he can improve that much in one year there might not be that much reason why he might not continue to improve. He is still very one sided though although that is not such a crime in today’s AFL. Zacharakis’ main weapon is his running. He is quick and uses his pace very well but he also has good endurance and gut runs well (note he didn’t test at Camp because he has glandular fever at the moment). What I also like with Zacharakis is that he runs to good spots, a lot of players run to places which are not to the advantage of their team but Zacharakis provides good outlets and positions himself in dangerous spots. He plays taller than his 180cm and takes a good mark. He could use some more weight but looks like he has a frame which will fill out okay given time. He can find plenty of the ball playing mainly outside but does go in and win his own ball and he generally does okay in close. He is hard at it, an aggressive tackler and will do the little things necessary to help his team win. He is reported to have good leadership skills and captained the Vic Metro team to win the Champs this year. This year he has also been a regular goal kicker at TAC level which is something teams like see from their midfield prospects. So in summary what you are getting is a quality team man who is an elite runner but has middle of the road skills. That makes him a third rounder in my book but I have bumped him up a little given the development he has shown this year.

30. Sydney

If I was Sydney I would go with a second key position prospect here and I think the likes of Davis and Cahill would be in contention along with a few others. As well as their forwards their backline are starting to age as well and the Swans must be looking to replace Barry shortly. I think it likely that we will be seeing Murphy back there this year but some more quality at the back would be handy. Lisle can play at both ends although he is more likely to end up a backman in the AFL. If the Swans picked him up here I think they would be very happy.

Jordan Lisle (DOB – 12/7/90, Ht – 196, Wt – 92)

I don’t know what it is but for some reason I have a pretty negative remembrance of Lisle. This is despite the fact that when I go back over my notes they are all pretty positive. In fact against WA I thought he was more impressive than Hurley. He has great size and generally moves very well for such a tall player. He has played up forward and down back but seems likely to be a CHB at the next level and there aren’t many decent CHB prospects available this year. He is impressive with the ball in hand and doesn’t mind a bursting run through the middle of the ground when he gets the opportunity. He is a very good mark of the ball and he judges the ball very well in flight. His decision making with the ball in hand is impressive and his delivery is good hitting his targets more often than not. His kicking for goal is not as good as his field kicking which is another reason why I think he might end up at the defensive end of the ground. Unlike many junior defenders (especially those who spend time in the forward line and are good marks of the ball) he has a very disciplined approach to his job in the backline and along with his height and good judgement make him a difficult match up for most forwards. At AFL level thought his agility might be tested as as with most guys his height he tends to have a pretty wide turning circle.

31. Western Bulldogs

If Hill fell to the Bulldogs here I don’t think they would have any hesitation in taking him. He is the kind of lean quick runner that they love and would fit into the Bulldogs scheme very well I think. He is not really a need but sometimes you just take talent when it is available and don’t look the gift horse in the mouth.

Stephen Hill (DOB – 1/5/90, Ht – 182, Wt – 72)

I know Hill has a lot of supporters out but I am not one of them. He is being talked up as an option at three but if I was asked to pick someone who I thought would not make it at AFL level it would be Hill. Okay first the good – he tested extremely well at draft camp and has a booming left foot kick. He is extremely quick (2.83 in the sprint for 3rd and 25.44 in the repeat sprints) and very agile having broken the record at camp in the agility test (7.77). He also has a very good leap (his 72cm standing vertical was third best). I was a bit surprised he didn’t figure in the 3km run or the beep test as from watching him he seems to have a pretty good tank and he covers a lot of ground in games. As mentioned the other big positive with Hill is the penetration on his kicking. He is a danger to score from 55 or 60 metres out and is at his best when he can just blast away on the run. Okay now for the downside – in my notes I had down that he runs like a chicken with its head cut off. He has an awkward running style and when he is forced to slow down and consider his options he can be indecisive to an almost comical extent as was seen at Champs. He does not seem to have great vision, his decision making is not good and his skills are a match. On short and middle distance kicks he misses targets too much for my liking. He is very light at the moment and has the kind of light frame that indicates he might have trouble bulking up too much. His best position at AFL level is likely to be off the HBF but he is too light to be considered there anytime shortly. Also despite the fact that he covers as much ground as anyone at the Champs he did not rack up the possessions. If you don’t get that much of the ball at junior level I don’t expect that to change when you play against elite company in the AFL. In fairness to him though he was given some run with roles at the Champs which he did okay although he is not really a close checking kind of tagger. Despite his pace he seems not to be a big chase and tackle kind of player. Despite all the negatives he has improved enormously this year and if he can continue to do that I could easily be eating my words this time next year. He certainly has some good physical tools and the games I have seen might not be a fair representation of his potential and where he is at. As I mentioned at the start there are plenty of WA guys who see him all the time who really rate him.

32. Western Bulldogs

The Bulldogs love going their own way early and taking players out of the box. They do have a few very slight key position prospects but as was evident this year this remains a key weakness of this team. As a consequence I think they have to take a tall here. Cahill and Blight I think are fair both fair chances here depending on what type of player the Bulldogs want to take. Cahill is more a traditional stay at home forward whilst Blight is someone who can hold down a position at the back and run all over the ground. Blight I think fits the Bullies style a little more and so I am going to go with him.

Jarrad Blight (DOB 24/1/91, Ht – 191, Wt - 75)

Blight is a bottom aged player who has many of the WA boys in raptures and in deference to them I figured I had to throw him in about here despite me not having seen him play. He was not selected for WA this year but did score an invite to camp where he managed 9th in the 3km. He is a true utility who can play all over the ground from the midfield to key position. I think he is likely to end up as a running backman who can take the big mark at the back and then use his tank to charge forward and then use his skills to pick out a target inside 50. He is courageous to a fault and has no trouble putting his head over the ball knowing he is going to get crunched. His skills are apparently very good and his kicks have excellent penetration. He is still only very slight and will need to put on some weight before we see much of him in the AFL. For the first time he has played significant time in the midfield this year and his inexperience has shown in that he can be a little indecisive at times and can get caught with the ball. He also needs to develop his spacial awareness a bit in contested situations. He is definitely a work in progress but that being said though teams are going to love the fact that he is bottom aged and has shown such development this year. They are also going to look at him and think he has potentially a huge ceiling talent wise but the question is where does that get him taken?

33. Geelong

There has been a bit of a run on key position defenders in the last 10 picks or so and as a consequence there are none here that really seem like value for money. Unlike a lot of the Cats supporters I don’t see any real need to go with a key position forward so I am just going to go with the best available policy and take a guy who I think would look good running around most midfields.

Jamie Sheahan (DOB – 11/8/90, Ht – 178, Wt – 73)

If Sheahan was a couple of inches taller he would be right up there in consideration for a first round selection. As it is he is probably a mid second round – early third round pick where I think he represents pretty good value. He is a lightly framed midfielder who gets plenty of it and is a dangerous forward when playing forward. He has good pace (3.02 in the 20m sprint at camp) and runs hard and positions himself well to receive. He is very strong through the hips and holds his feet well in the contest and shakes tackles well. He is good reading the ball of hands and as a consequence he is good as an in and under and crumbing at the feet of his tall forwards. His ability as a dangerous midfielder and forward should see move up the ladder a bit. The main deficiency in his game is his kicking lacks penetration. He would not get the distance from 50 and struggles from 45. Maybe he lacks a bit of confidence in his kicking as around the ground he does tend to handball too much. Kicking for goal he has an unusal, very deliberate style but overall it tends to go through the middle pretty well which is the main thing. He tackles above his weight which combined with his running ability is also a positive factor for those assessing him. He also played mostly school football this year and there might be a bit more development in him when he gets into full time environment.

34. Hawthorn

The Hawks do have some quality smalls waiting in the wings including Whitecross who was a favourite of mine last year but I am going to go with another small tough backman who can step in for the likes of Brown and Dew if required. Pearce can maintain that physical presence at the back that the Hawks like to have in their game and which is something that most premiership teams have.

Clancee Pearce (DOB – 23/10/90, Ht – 183, Wt – 85)

Reminds me a lot of Campbell Brown. Tough, nuggetty backman who is capable of getting a heap of it and plays well above his height. He has a powerful presence at the back that gives his team a solid player to build around. He does not have super pace but usually does okay and is not often beaten for pace although some of the medium, very slippery AFL forwards are likely to give him serious problems if he is asked to match up on them. As mentioned though he does play bigger than he is and given he also reads the ball in flight so well I would not expect many of those type of players to outmark him much. He is a very balanced player also who holds his feet well in the contest and is a presence over the ball. His run off is probably the strongest aspect of his game and he will make his opposition player work hard defensively. He loves to run from HB and he works to space very well to provide an outlet option. Kicking wise he is pretty good although I would not say that he had elite disposal skills. He can punch the ball in nicely off his natural right foot but will also turn the ball over every now and then.

35. Melbourne

Melbourne could really use some more pace and running power through the midfield and I am going here with a guy who I think might surprise a few with how high he goes on the day. Both the Smith twins (no not really) have great pace and Alistair is more the true ball winning mid which Melbourne could use.

Alistair Smith (DOB – 08/08/90, Ht – 183, Wt – 80)

Played on the wing and half back flank for WA but, as is a common theme at this stage of the draft, did not really rise to the occasion at Champs. Unlike a lot of others though, he has a couple of reasonable excuses and he seems to have pretty reasonable skills with his kicking being better than many likely to be in contention for this spot. Prior to the Champs he was getting a lot of the ball and I was a bit disappointed we didn’t get to see more of him. That raises the question as to whether he will be able to take the step up to AFL level. The thing though which teams will take into account is that he has had an injury interrupted year and he had limited preparation for the Champs (he only played 6 colts games all year). Teams will fall in love with his physical tools and given that he has shown an ability to run hard and get to space, get a lot of it and then use it pretty well you have to think there are going to be a few teams who are interested. At Camp he picked up 9th in the repeat sprints (25.48) and 10th in the vertical leap which was solid but I was a bit disappointed. He also has elite endurance and I was surprised he didn’t feature in the endurance tests results. I am thinking with his injuries that he might not have tested. According to his Colts coach at Perth he has run 2.79 over the 20m and a beep test of 16.1. If these numbers are legit and with his ball winning ability this is one kid who might go a lot higher come draft day.

 

[Quigley]

36. West Coast

West Coast could use some help in the small forward department and I am sure they won’t hesitate to take the chance on the local product in Jetta if he is available at the start of the third round. I think the Eagles would be pretty happy with the balance if their draft turned out this way.

Neville Jetta (DOB – 12/2/90, Ht 178, Wt – 75)
Jetta is a flanker (forward or back) who has shown some propensity to be able to move into the midfield although this is far from a given. He is a bit undersized (both height and weight) and I actually thought he was shorter than his measured height. Despite his height he can take a pretty good mark and he spoils well for a short player. He has good speed especially off the mark but did not figure in the top 10 at Camp in either of the speed tests which was a bit of a surprise for me. He did get 7th in the agility testing though. He tends to run well on the flank and can get quite a lot of it but for me he does not really have the hurt factor or others either up forward or down back. Up forward he tends to be more of a crumber rather than a lead and mark kind of player. He will definitely start his career in the forward line as he lacks the tank at the moment to play significant time in the middle. He is a good tackler and looks like he could play the chase down HFF role well. He plays a physical style of game and he does cause turnovers with his pressure. The main problem I have with Jetta is his disposal which tends to be all over the shop. He sprays his kicks too much for my liking both for goal and in general play. I note some people say that his disposal is good but I do not rate this part of his game and again this could well be due to me not having seen that much of him.

37. Fremantle

Freo needs to keep building depth back up in their midfield and I think they could do a lot worse than looking at DeBoer here. He has some issues with his kicking but he is a work horse and will win the ball and Freo definitely need more of those types of players.

Matthew DeBoer (DOB – 10/3/90, Ht – 187, Wt – 85)

Another whose draft position is very difficult to predict because there is a lot to like but he has one massive hole in his game that is going to see a lot of teams steer clear of him early. The hole is his kicking which at its currently level makes him a liability on the field at AFL level. In a high possession era, being able to hit a target is essential and there are a lot of talented players sitting at the bottom of team lists or out of the AFL because their kicking is substandard. That being said though it only takes one team to value the strengths in his game and think they can fix his kicking and he could go fairly high. DeBoer has a nose for the ball and if there is one thing you can safely rely on if you take him it is that he will find the ball. He has been playing senior football in the WAFL for a lot of the year and has averaged over 17 possessions a game. Coming into the last game of the Champs against Vic Metro DeBoer had clearly been the best player for WA and was getting a lot of ball. Against Vic Metro though he went missing and this might also hurt his case come draft day – will he struggle when he has less time and space? He is a good runner who gets to space well. In the contest he has good quick hands and a good awareness of what is going on around him. He has nice height for a midfielder and is dangerous in the marking contest. He is a very enticing combination of speed (9th in the 20m sprint at Camp with 2.92 and 2nd in the repeat sprint with 24.97) and endurance (8th in the 3km with 10.53) and those types of players are pretty rare especially ones who can actually play. As mentioned if he fixes his kicking he could turn out to be an absolute steal.

38. Port Adelaide

With Port having gone a mid followed by a pure ruck I am going to go with the best key position left on the board for them this pick. The fact that he happens to be an SA boy is just an added bonus.

Paul Cahill (DOB 19/8/90, Ht – 192, Wt – 80)

In all honesty I wasn’t that impressed with him at the Champs with the flavour of my comments being – big guys, goes alright. Hardly a ringing endorsement but I am willing to be persuaded on this one by others who have seen more of him than me. He is a very athletic CHF / FF prospect who is pretty quick and has a very good leap on him. He is very difficult to cover in contested marking situations because he can get a long way up in the air and his hands are good. He is a little thin at the moment and needs a year or two in the gym before he is going to be right for AFL football. He is a nice mover on the field but tends to sit back a little much for me and wait for the ball to come to him even when he is play at CHF. When the ball does come into his area he is always ready to present for the ball and he leads well to dangerous places. He has a real full forward kind of attitude though and will virtually always look to go for goal himself. Probably the biggest weakness in his game though is his kicking. He really is a below average kick for goal and this is what really holds him back from going higher. He lead the Champs in shots at goal and I think was second in contested marks so he can get the ball in range he just doesn’t put the ball through the big sticks often enough for the chances he has. He has had a few minor leg injuries this year which have affected his performance a little. It could also see him go lower than here if teams are really turned off by his conversion rate but end of second round or third is probably where he belongs in this draft. Overall though I think he is a true forward and teams are always on the look out for goal kickers.

39. Geelong

Klemke I think is very much the type of player who could well at Geelong. Reads the play well, good leadership and underestimated kicking. Another half back option which also could be free up others to play through the midfield.

Kade Klemke (DOB – 15/7/90, Ht – 180, Wt – 78)

With Ediriwickrama out of most of the Div 1 part of the Champs Klemke was the stand out for NSW making the AA side. He was playing off half back mostly and was the real general at the back for NSW directing traffic. He tended to zone off a bit and rely on his superior play reading ability to cut out the ball coming in and lead the rebound the other way. He got caught occasionally and does not really have the pace to recover quickly but he was generally very successful. As the Champs continued he got more and more used to the top level company and he looked very comfortable by the time the Champs finished. He looks capable of stepping up to the next level as well and looks like he will make a very nice running half back flanker at AFL level and might spend some time in the middle. He is very elusive in traffic and keeps his arms free well. He works hard up and down the field and seems to have a pretty good tank. He is not overly quick (not overly slow either) and is a good mark for his size. Body wise he is pretty solid for his age and looks like he will have a good solid build by the time he is finished. Generally his disposal is pretty good although he does tend to pump it long a bit when he is pressured. When he is given time he looks to use the corridor well and tended to straighten NSW up a lot. He is tough in the contest and is a good tackler. He captained the Bushrangers in the TAC this year and given the team that they had that speaks very highly of his leadership capabilities. In short if you are picking around the 35 – 50 mark and are in need of a good HBF prospect I think Klemke is your man.

40. Carlton

I think the Blues will take a small forward at some stage in this draft and this is about the stage where quite a few of them are likely to start being taken. The WA boys in Richardson and Ballantyne will be looked at closely here but I think Carlton might go with the local boy and take Tom Rockliff. He offers them a different look up forward and if he could improve his tank he could become a very dangerous player.

Tom Rockliff (DOB – 22/2/90, Ht – 183, Wt – 83)

Physically Rockliff does not have a huge amount going for him being not particularly tall, with short legs, not much pace or endurance and only average agility. Not a lot of selling points there and that is probably why he was overlooked last year. What he does have though is football smarts and goal sense up there with the best. He reads the ball well in flight, uses his body well, gets to the right spots and kicks them when he gets his hands on the ball. Those are very big selling points and I think someone is going to be buying this year. He had a good champs for Vic Country and has kicked quite a few bags of goals in the TAC this year. He creates well for others when he is up forward and delivers the ball well to dangerous spots. At the moment he is no chance to play in the midfield because he doesn’t have the endurance. He has improved a bit from last year in this regard when he couldn’t run out of sight on a dark night but he still has a lot of work to do. At the moment a lot of teams are going to be worried that he is not going to have the athletic skills to get free.

41. Brisbane

I think the Lions will definitely take a ruck at some stage in the draft given that they only have 2 specialist rucks and a part timer on their list at the moment. There aren’t many pure ruck prospects available but as Leuenberger develops that might not be such a bad thing so the Lions could go with someone like McCullough or Hill who have other strings to their bow. I am taking Hill largely because he is a year younger and I am hoping he can grow a couple of centimetres.

Tom Hill (DOB – 7/4/91, Ht – 198.5, Wt – 79)

This is another of the epidemic of ruck come key position players. Clubs have a tendency to overlook these types of players when they are bottom aged but I think the usual rules might go out the window this year. He did not represent Metro this year but did have a very solid U16 Champs last year playing as a key forward. He scored an invite to Camp this year but I am not privy to his results other than his height measurement noted above. At the moment he is very lightly built although he does have a decent frame to build on and will need a few preseasons in the gym before he is likely to be able to have the strength to mix it up at AFL level. He has pretty good speed and agility for a ruck but only average for a key position but he does use his height well up forward, has a good leap and can take a nice mark. His kicking for goal is very good as his ground kicking. He is unselfish, seems to have good vision and will look to hit up his man in better scoring positions than himself. Unless he grows a couple of centimetres more I think he is likely to have a career in the forward line with only occasional trips to ruck. Note however that McCartney in his afl.com article on rucks gave his height at 199.7 and said thought that he was still growing. If that was the case it changes a lot of things and brings him right back into contention as a full time ruck. At the moment he would ideally suit a team with dominant ruckman who likes to have a lot of time on ground. He might suit a team like West Coast or even Brisbane as Leuenberger develops. If he does grow a couple of centimetres though he could be a very good around the ground ruckman with his movement and disposal skills. Lobbe and Westoff (two other key position / rucks) went a lot higher than expected last year and Hill might well do a similar thing this year.

42. Port Adelaide

Port get a local boy here who I think could add a bit more of a physical presence much in the way Hawthorn did this year. I think Pearce would be an excellent pick here but as I have him going earlier I am going with Broadbent here who in honesty I had inadvertently left out of my mock before I had try and work him in somewhere. Broadbent also has the potential to move into the midfield as he develops. He could also play in a tagging role and free up Kane if needed.

Matthew Broadbent (DOB – 1/8/90, Ht – 189, Wt – 81)

I am not as sold on his game as some. He played predominantly off half back for SA at the Champs although he did a bit of run with. I think they are likely to be his roles at the next level as well. He seems a smooth mover and covers the ground well although too me he seems to lack a yard of pace and that might count against him at AFL level. I do note that some people have said that his pace is pretty good so I could be wrong here and I would have liked to have his Camp results available. He has good size for a HBF / mid and is a solid guy who attacks the ball with a purpose. Disposal wise he is usually okay although he is prone to turning the ball over a bit when pressured. He is fairly one sided and is pretty weak on the left. He seems to have a good tank and moves to space well giving his teammates an easy option coming out of defense. Despite the fact that he is usually given a defensive role he makes him man work both ways which is something I really like to see. He is a capable inside and outside player who has a physical element to his play and he does not mind throwing his weight around. What Broadbent is is a very hard worker who works well within the team concept doing the dirty work that teams need to win. He was given the job on Rich when SA played WA at the Champs and he did a very good job of shutting him down.

43. North Melbourne

North might well start to look key position here but I do not have much quality left on my board for them to take. Brown might be a chance perhaps Liam Jones. There is quite a few reasonable mid prospects though so I am continuing the makeover of the North midfield and flanks by taking another smooth moving wing / HF prospect and this is one has a bit of mongrel about him and he might be able to play next year.

Charlie Sharples (DOB – 16/2/89, Ht – 180, Wt – 74)

Sharples is the first player since Matthew Pavlich to play the U18 Champs and represent the SANFL at senior level in the one year. He played for NT in the Champs and was amongst the best for NT in all of their Div 2 games. He has also been playing senior football all year for Sturt in the SANFL and outplayed many AFL listed players in the process. Apparently he was very close to being selected last year but was told that he needed to work on his endurance. Showing admirable dedication he moved from the territory to SA and has really improved his running ability. He has always been very quick but he has come on in leaps and bounds this year after working with a professional outfit at Sturt. With his pace and improved fitness he has been able to be a much bigger ball winner than he was previously. He is a very smooth mover on the field and seems to glide across the turf. He has great balance and holds his feet well in the contest. He makes contests and is a good tackler if he is not getting the ball himself. It needs to be noted that he was an above age player at the Champs this year for NT and will be 20 by the time next season starts. He is still pretty slight of build but I would expect him to be heavier than the 74kgs he was listed at during the Champs. I think he has been doing a fair bit of gym work this year and he is wiry strong. The biggest hole in his game remains his kicking which is still below AFL standard I think. His kicking style looks pretty and he seems well balanced but he misses too many targets and duffs the ball too much. When he is pressured it is often worse and generally he lacks penetration. His kicking for goal is better than his field kicking to the point where I would say he is a good shot for goal although he does struggle for distance from the 50. He looks at his most dangerous I think on the HFF where he can work up onto the wing and then push back into the 50. He moves well to dangerous spots and works off his tall forwards well. He could also work off the HBF in the AFL where he would give good run from the back. Overall I would be surprised if he was not taken on draft day and I am sure there are a few teams out there who will think they could use his run and can fix his kicking.

44. Adelaide

With McLeod close to retirement the backline could use an injection of pace and that is certainly something that Smith Mark II could provide. I note that some people rate him much higher than here (he went in the first round in the BF phantom) but suffice it to say I have concerns about him.

Ashley Smith (DOB – 20/7/90, Ht – 185, Wt – 84)

Smith is one who is has gotten a lot of love on BF especially since winning the sprint in near record time (2.80). He backed that up with a reasonable performance in the repeat sprints (6th overall with 25.14) although I am sure a few teams would have been expecting better of him in this. They always knew he was quick it is his tank and ability to do the repeat work which teams would have wanted to see a good performance in. He did pull out a 10th in the vertical leap which was a good performance (67cm). Okay first the good – obviously he is very quick, but also has good balance and is evasive. He is a solid guy and can charge forward well. He is a very good kick of the ball usually, has excellent penetration and hits his targets. In short he can look very good. What you don’t see though is him taking over games and he seemed to struggle in the step up in class at U18 level. Lets face it he was a top aged non factor at the Champs. I am sure someone will take him and hope that they can use his pace as a weapon off the half forward or back flank but I just see him being taken early.

45. Collingwood

Collingwood really do need inside help in a major way and so I am taking the guy here who if nothing else will win the ball. Banner is someone that will give his all and make those around him better. There are a couple of quality players in the Collingwood midfield but they need a few more lunch pail guys and Banner would be one of those.

Mitchell Banner (DOB – 5/6/90, Ht – 178, Wt – 77)

Banner is a prolific in and under ball winner who covers an enormous amount of ground during a game. He works to space well and so gets plenty of both contested and uncontested possessions. He has a bit of diesel about him in that he is not very tall, not very quick but just keeps going all day getting more and more ball. He reads the ball well off hands in the centre and has quick hands in the clearances. The big hole in his game is his kicking which is erratic to say the least. Sometimes his kicks can be bullets, sometimes up and unders, sometimes he can get the distance from outside 50 and others he will struggle to get the distance from the 40. He has improved this part of his game over the course of the year and this is something that teams will give consideration to when they are considering him. He is a pretty solid mark and his kicking for goal is probably a bit better than his field kicking. He is a capable goal scorer playing out of the midfield. His attitude is top shelf and he is a very competitive, courageous and passionate player who is a warrior on the park. Teams looking for a bit of a lift in professionalism (yes I am looking at you Fremantle) could do a lot worse than taking a chance on Banner.

46. Collingwood

A key position is on the cards at some stage for Collingwood and someone who could do some part time rucking would also be handy. McCulloch I think would be looked at pretty closely by a few teams drafting around this time on draft day.

Bart McCulloch (DOB – 23/9/90, Ht – 199, Wt – 83)

McCulloch is another of the plethora of ruck sized utility players available this year. He played up forward and in the ruck for Tasmania and whilst he was not dominant in either position his athleticism makes him an intriguing prospect. He is at his best when he is given room to run and he effectively becomes another wing when he is given his head. He has exceptional pace and agility for a player of his size and seems to do things pretty well at pace which you don’t see from many players his size. Up forward he gets out on the lead well and has reasonable but not great hands. He does not always lead to the best spots though and does not use his height to full advantage up forward. In the ruck he is a little undersized and his ruck skills need work and I probably see him as a pinch hitter in the ruck at AFL level. His disposal skills are pretty good and comparable at least with most of the key position prospects available this year. Kicking style wise I think he is good although he can miss targets from time to time. At AFL level I see him as a CHB capable of matching up on the likes of Franklin and not giving away much in the way of height, athleticism, or pace. He will also run off extremely well and force those he matches up on to work hard the other way. He will go into the ruck for periods and again his around the ground ability will challenge most rucks in the AFL. He is an interesting prospect and he reminds me a bit of Lobbe last year who went a lot earlier than most of us expected last year.

47. St Kilda

There is probably one midfielder left who I would love the Lions to pick up and that is Hannebery and on that logic I think I have to give him to the Saints. Given a year or two to develop he could add some class to the Saints midfield. As a bottom aged prospects with a lot going for him it would not surprise me if he went much higher on draft day.

Dan Hannebery (DOB – 24/2/91, Ht – 182, Wt – 75)

Hannebery is another Vic Metro guy who gets a bit of love on here but as a bottom aged player who seems to have improved as the year progressed I don’t have a problem with it. He was a solid performer at camp showing very good endurance and winning the 3km run and coming in 7th in the beep test (14.2). He also did well in the agility test finishing 7th (8.32). As mentioned he is a bottom aged player and he seems like he will become a very good player in time and if he had decided not to declare this year he would likely have been a high pick next year. As you can see from his test results he has a very good tank especially for a first year player and that is only going to get better. He is reasonably quick and is a pretty good mark. He plays a bit all over the park although mostly I guess through the midfield in an outside role although he does win a fair bit of his own ball. He uses his endurance well to work to space and tends to win a lot of uncontested ball because of it. His disposal is also above average although not at the elite level just yet. He did not have a great Champs but he looked good at times in the TAC and for his school. Playing mostly school football this year is another factor in assuming there is a fair bit more development left in him.

 

[Quigley]

48. St Kilda

Adding a bit of height through the midfield is always valued in today’s AFL so at this stage I don’t see any reason why the Saints would not go with Stanton who has shown glimpses of real class.

Luke Stanton (DOB – 8/1/90, Ht - 191, Wt – 83)

Came on a bit last year and has continued to improve this year. He is the kind of tall utility player that can play through the midfield that Geelong has really brought into vogue. There are probably players who will be taken behind him who have had better junior careers but teams are going to like the look of him and see what he could become. He played for Vic Metro at the Champs and was excellent in bursts and really dominated the play during the periods racking up possessions and really hurting the opposition. He is at his best with the ball in hand and provides great run off half back or up onto the wing. He is not super quick but seems quick enough. As mentioned he is a bit of a burst player at the moment and will need to work on his tank at the next level. His tank is reasonable now and he shows the ability to take that step up and he needs to do that to play the style of game he is suited for at the next level. Kicking wise he is usually pretty good with good penetration on his left although he can deliver floaters from time to time. He plays mostly outside and gets to space very well but can go inside and win his own ball. The ability to win his own ball is really important to the philosophy of many teams like Geelong who want every player to be able to win their own ball. He seems to read the play well and takes good options.

49. Geelong

Geelong’s last pick and I am having them take a player who has fallen through to them in Shuey. This could just as easily have been Strauss who unlike many available here can actually kick the ball reasonably well. I am going with Shuey though because I think his pace would be very handy in the Geelong side. He might also be someone who could be groomed to take over from Ling in a few years. His kicking would admittedly be something which would count very much against him in that side.

Luke Shuey (DOB – 2/6/90, Ht – 185, Wt – 84)

He is another one of the brigade of second and third round prospects who have a lot going for them but their disposal lets them down too much. Shuey performed very well at Camp showcasing his pace (9th in the 20m sprint with a 2.92), tank (4th in the beep test with 14.4) and agility (9th in the agility test with 8.34). I think he would have been doing a fair bit of specific training to get those times as I wouldn’t have thought he had that much speed or endurance from watching during games. He is a well built guy whose solid build looks made for the bottom of packs and that is where he might end up before all is said and done. He is pretty good in the clearances and tends to get his hands on the ball quite a lot. He played some TAC football this year and did okay but played most of the year for Marcellin College. Usually teams factor in a bit more development coming from school football than from other backgrounds but I am not so sure with Shuey. He seems like a pretty dedicated trainer and he has a reputation for his intensity. There has also not been that much of an improvement in his disposal as you would like to see moving to TAC football. I would be concerned that he is always going to be poor in that area and in the modern game that is a killer for teams and for the individual. Teams looking for a tagger might give serious consideration to Shuey as I think this might end up being his forte at the next level.

Okay I really was not expecting Ranga to agree to become a rookie so I did up a profile for him. Given that it is done I am including it anyway.

Ranga Ediriwickrama (DOB – 10/8/90, Ht - 178, Wt, - 79)

Ranga is a fantastic talent and is a certifiable steal for Geelong under the NSW scholarship program. Quite simply there was not a bigger ball magnet playing at this year’s Championships and if he had not been taken by Geelong I would have had him in the first round. He plays on ball and wins the ball in the contest but also moves extremely well to space and picks up a heap of uncontested ball as well. His workrate is phenomenal and those matched up with him just weren’t able to go with him at Champs even matched up against the top company in Div 1. Ranga a fair bit more solid in the legs and bum than last year and may have lost a little pace although I wouldn’t say he is slow by any stretch. He was undoubtedly the leader for the NSW team when he was on there and is very vocal on the field directing his troops. The biggest advantage that Ranga has is that he has the ability to quickly read the situation and take the best option. He then has the quickness of hand to carry out what he wants to do. His disposal is only average at the moment but I think that will come and that is certainly much easier to teach than the quickness of mind that he currently has. Despite all the positives he can be a little unaccountable and can allow his man to run off him too easily. This is something which will easily be fixed at AFL level and its not like he is lazy on the field. One thing that picked up a lot over the course of the Champs was his tackling. Early in the Div 2 Champs I didn’t think he was much in the way of a tackler but as things went along the more he picked up to the extent now that I think my earlier observation may have just been him having an off day in that department.

50. Hawthorn

With Williams, Rioli and even Stokes the small forward position is probably not a high priority but I like Richardson and wanted to take him somewhere and so here it is. In the medium term I expect Rioli to move into the midfield and Williams has had injury issues before so a legitimate small forward would not go astray.

Ian Richardson (DOB – 14/10/87, Ht – 179, Wt – 74)

This 21 year old really burst onto the WAFL scene this year as a permanent small forward for Claremont. He won Claremont’s best and fairest averaging 14 possessions and kicking 62 goals in his 20 games. He also represented WA in the State match against Queensland where he kicked 4 goals and was named best on ground. He is a leading forward mainly who does crumb well when called for but is not super quick. He is an excellent read of the play, takes a nice mark for his size and is smart in the way he works to advantage. He is a very accurate shot for goal and has consistently kicked goals at whatever level of competition he has played. He got increasing attention from the opposition as the year progressed and handled it very well. He is not tall and I would also like to see him put on a few kilos to mix it up at AFL level. He has some potential to play in the midfield but I think a team that picks him will do so on the basis that he is a full time small forward. He was invited to camp this year which is an indication that there are more than a few clubs interested in him. At camp he showed a good tank for a small forward coming in 7th in the beep test (14.2). He has been reported at anywhere from 175 to 179 in height and it would help his prospects if he was measured in the upper end of that range.

51. Melbourne

Having given Melbourne two key position forwards (one a part time ruck) and two half forward flankers I have decided to go with a midfielder this time around. As you might imagine the Demons need help virtually everywhere and although there is a few youngsters to like in the middle I think they could use a little more depth.

Tom Allwright (DOB – 15/6/90, Ht – 185, Wt – 83)

I think Allwright is one player who should have gotten more attention than he has done. He played mainly off half back in the Champs although he can move up into the midfield and wing and I thought he was one of the best for Tasmania during the Champs. He reads play well at the back, can take a nice contested mark against his opposing player and is a good kick coming out of defense. He has good size both in height and weight and uses both well. He has shown the ability to get plenty of the ball and goes in very hard to win the ball when it is up for grabs. He is a tough competitor who is composed under pressure, works hard and does the team thing. In tight he is usually pretty clean and has good hands. He is a big bodied young guy who comes from a rowing background so you know he is strong in the upper body. I am not sure about his pace but he seems to cover a fair bit of ground. Overall I think he is a pretty fair prospect and certainly worth a late round pick.

52. West Coast

West Coast I think could use a little polish in their midfield brigade. They have taken a few grunt guys over the last couple of years (well last year anyway) and could use some guys who use the ball well and also finish when they get the chance to shoot for goal. The chances of them taking a Queenslander? Not high but this is second division territory now and I think Bail would be a guy they could use and a few of the WA recruiters might have gotten a good look at him in the WA – Qld state game.

Rohan Bail (DOB – 10/08?, Ht – 183, Wt – 78kg)

Bail is a 20 year old Queenslander winger / forward who has really come on in the last two years. As an U18 he failed to make the Queensland team for the Champs but since then he has worked hard and made every post a winner. Last year he played every game for the AFLQ premiers Mt Gravatt and starred in the grand final with 4 goals before trialling unsuccessfully with Essendon and St Kilda. This year after a quiet start he came home with a wet sail and ended up winning the AFLQ Rising Star award and was 4th in the Grogan Medal for the league’s best player. He played in the state game against WA and adjusted well to the step up in class and pace of the game. That game seemed to give Bail a lot of confidence and he stepped his game up a couple of notches for the rest of the season. Bail has good height, excellent pace and endurance. He has numerous State titles on the track and cross country, represented the State in baseball and is a very good golfer. As you might expect he is a very nice mover and covers the ground very well. He was tagged regularly in the second half of the year but usually worked through the tag well. His disposal is pretty good and his kicking for goal can be freakish at times. He is a good mark of the ball and has a propensity for kicking goals in big games. He has developed into a very classy player out on the park and is someone who I think a few teams might take another look at. I would be surprised if he wasn’t at least on a rookie list somewhere by the time next season roles around.

53. Fremantle

I think most Freo fans would be getting toward the end of the tether with Tarrant and would be hoping that the Dockers could snag a key position forward prospect or two in this draft. There are a couple of Div 2 key positions who have been a little under the radar one being Sibosado and more particularly Liam Jones who is a bottom aged prospect who I think more than a few teams will be interested in.

Liam Jones (DOB – 24/2/91, Ht – 194, Wt - 84)

Jones could be a lower round steal for someone. Given he is an AIS scholarship holder it is not exactly like teams don’t know about him but he has been hidden away a bit this year given he played school football only early and then missed the Champs with a knee injury. He is the son of former St Kilda player Bob Jones and is a Tasmanian who is in Melbourne on a scholarship to Scotch College. He played predominantly as a forward but has also shown proficiency at the other end of the ground. He is a very athletic player, with very nice size who has a great set of hands. He gets out on the lead quickly and leads to good spots and is a good shot at goal. I think he is an overlooked player in this year’s draft and I think he is pretty certain to be taken somewhere. I am not sure how he would go with a move to Freo but I think with the number of picks they have he might be someone who they are targeting lower in the draft given their dearth of key position forward talent.

54. Port Adelaide

After the Power’s effort last year was there ever any doubt who I was going to have them taking with my last pick for them.

Steven Motlop (DOB – 12/3/91, Ht – 181, Wt – 68)

The latest of the Motlop clan probably is not the best of them. He plays a lot like Marlon except doesn’t quite have the class of his older cousin. Given that Port have a stack of picks this year you have to figure that Motlop will join the other two at the Power given Port’s family ties drafting strategy. If he weren’t bottom aged I would have thought he would have been a prime rookie candidate. He plays on the half forward flank and up onto the wing and has that nice gliding stride you occasionally see that eats up the ground. He is also very agile and has a great side step. His kicking for both goal and around the ground is very good. He has played some good games both this year and last which will get him a look in but he is very inconsistent at the moment. He has been asked to be a leader on occasion but just hasn’t quite worked out that yelling at his players is not leadership. I think he is most likely to be midfielder at the next level because he has a reasonable tank and seems to lack innate goal sense. He was invited to camp but didn’t feature in any of the top 10s. It does show that there is interest out there though.

55. Essendon

I am not if Essendon pick this deep but if they don’t who cares. I am giving them Jake Cox who I think might be only a slim chance to be drafted but I think if a team took a chance on him he could really pay off for them. He would be a good complementary player for Essendon through their midfield.

Jake Cox (DOB - 28/9/90, Ht – 184, Wt – 71)

Cox is another overage Div 2 prospect who I like. If I were a betting man I would expect him probably not to be drafted but were I picking and had a couple of late picks I would have no trouble taking a flyer on him. If he gets through to the rookie draft I hope someone looks at him. He plays the game very much like Robinson except is not quite as good at the moment. That being said though he looked better at the Champs than a lot of guys who are being talked of as draft certainties. He is a medium tall wing who covers a fair bit of ground and has very nice speed. He has good hands both over his head and on the ground. He can fade a bit in and out of games and that is something he has to work on. When he is in the game though he uses the ball well and can hurt the opposition with his disposal. He has good vision, picks out targets in dangerous positions and hits them. He worked well with Robinson for Tasmania and I thought Tasmania were at their best when that pair were working closely. He is a light framed guy and needs to put on some weight before he is likely to play in the AFL. Against Vic Country he did very well when moved onto Sidebottom and quietened him right down. He is an overaged player which is likely to count against him a bit but he is someone who I think would really develop in a full time AFL environment.

56. Framantle

Freo need some help at both ends of the ground in the key positions and might take a speckie here on a guy with a lot of athletic talent but who has not really got it together so far. Gugliotta can play at either end of the park and Fremantle are in real need of key position depth. He was a guy I liked a lot last year and I think he is another who might come on really well when he is in a full time environment.

Michael Gugliotta (DOB – 26/6/90, Ht – 194, Wt – 82)

Gugliotta is an ex-AIS player who looks like he has all the tools. Unfortunately he has yet to put them together. Notwithstanding that I could see someone taking the chance on him figuring that they can turn him into a real prospect once he got into a full time AFL environment. This year he played as a FF and CHF for the Territory but I see teams looking at him as a CHB prospect. He has excellent height, is quick, agile and has a good tank and leap. On the field he just looks like a footballer. A few teams are obviously interested in him as he managed an invite to camp and he did pretty well finishing 6th in the 3km (10.43) and 10th in the vertical leap (67cm). I had high hopes for Gugliotta coming into the Champs this year but really he showed very little. He faded in and out of games and even when he was in he was rarely dangerous. He played predominantly up forward and rarely got the ball in scoring position. He did take a few nice marks however and showed he can get up there and very nice hands in contested situations. When he did get the ball he showed pretty good kicking skills and he was able to pick out his men well with his kicks. When I have seen him play down back he has been a little undisciplined and often tries to mark balls he should be punching. There are worse things though and someone is going to look at him and think they can do something with him and you know what – they could very well be right. He is an intriguing prospect that will tease a lot of teams.

57. Brisbane

The Lions continue to pan for inside midfield help.

Dylan McNeil (DOB – 20/3/91, Ht – 178, Wt – 77)

Light, bottom aged kid who lead the Champs in clearances coming into the last game. As they say he does great work in the phone box. In tight he has very good balance, holds his feet well and has good vision about what is going on around him. His quick hands allow him to clear the ball from tight situations. Once he gets into space he also uses the ball well and delivers it into the 50 with good accuracy and weight. He is extremely hard at the ball and will throw his light frame into contests with abandon. He might lack a yard or two of pace. He was one of the best for NSW again this year and followed on from two dominant years U16 making AA both years. He is also a pretty intelligent guy and is a previous winner of Mike Fitzpatrick AFL Scholarship for excellence in both football and academic areas. As a bottom aged player you would think there is a fair bit of development in him and he was an invitee to Camp this year. The big thing for him might be what he measured in at Camp. If he measured in a bit taller he could come right into contention. Played in the Bushrangers premiership side this year.

58. Richmond

Richmond will take a key position or two in this draft and the best Div 2 prospect left out there is Sibosado who gets a fair bit of love on the draft board. He is an interesting prospect and one well worth looking at at this stage in the draft. He has quite a lot of talent and looks like he has the tools to develop into a nice player. The Tigers could use his athleticism especially with Richo coming to the end of his career.

Casey Sibosado (DOB – 13/10/90, Ht – 191, Wt – 85)

Melbourne based kid who boarded at Xavier, played some games for Oakleigh and played in the Div 2 Champs for the NT. He plays well above his listed height and is a legitimate key position player. In fact at the Champs he did a fair bit of rucking provided a contest winning a few and at least keeping the opposing rucks honest. He moves very nicely for a big guy, is rangy and covers the ground extremely well. He plays mostly as a forward although he will work up onto this wing to get the ball as a true CHF. Probably the main strength in his game is his contested marking and he is a real presence in the forward line. His kicking for goal is pretty good and certainly up there with the forwards who are likely to be taken around him in the draft. His field kicking is also solid and he seems to have pretty good awareness of what is going on around him. There have been some who have compared him to Buddy Franklin and that is more than a little over the top but in fairness he does move a little like him. He has been hidden away a little playing for NT and Xavier for most of the year but he showed some good development at Oakleigh and teams are going to look at him and think there is still a fair bit development left in him. He has a high ceiling and is someone I think teams are going to be willing to take a chance on later in the draft. He was an attendee at camp.

59. North Melbourne

Salter is an old fashioned style of footballer who fits well into the shinboner ethos. If he is given the chance Salter is someone who is not going to die wondering and will give it everything he has got. If North could sort out his kicking he would be a nice player for them.

Tom Salter (DOB – 3/3/90, Ht – 184, Wt – 77)

Salter is a warrior who gives his all whenever he is out on the park. He has good height and has a reasonable build that looks like it will fill out well. He throws himself into contests, tackles hard and looks like a good leader. He is an in and under mostly who is good at the bottom of packs and has quick hands. He is a powerful runner able to bust tackles and has great endurance. He is not very quick though. The big problem for Salter though is his kicking and in a year when there are a lot of poor kicking midfielders to chose from he is right up there with the worst. He sprays kicks, turns the ball over and generally hurts his own team with his kicking. Its a shame because in most other aspects of his game there is a lot to like.

60. Adelaide

Although they have some depth Adelaide’s young rucks have not exactly set the world on fire and having someone who could come in and give them support both at the back and in the ruck would be very handy for the Crows.

Joel Smouha (DOB – 5/2/90, Ht – 197, Wt – 88)

Smouha is an inexperienced but generally good ruck at AFLQ level however he is likely to be just a bit too short to ruck full time in the AFL (although I wouldn’t mind getting his official height as I think he has grown a bit from last year). His height I think was the main reason he was overlooked last year and the fact that he had no back up plan if he wasn’t a ruck. There was obviously a plan to change that perception this year and at U18 level this year he was played as a key position to showcase his talent to teams. Unfortunately he had played key position very little before the Champs and his lack of experience was probably highlighted more than he might have hoped. At the Champs he was played as a CHB and FB and in the warm up match against Oakleigh he played CHF. I would have liked to see him split time in the ruck as I think he would have helped the Queensland team a great deal (he would have easily been their best ruckman) and it would have highlighted his around the ground ability a little more. If he could have shown the ability to do well in the ruck and around the ground whilst splitting time as a key position. Teams with a dominant ruck like Freo or West Coast could well have been very interested in him. At CHB he performed reasonably from a defensive stand point but occasionally allowed his man too much room on the lead. What he did show was though that he has excellent height and very nice closing speed. Very encouragingly too he showed glimpses of being a good reader of play and given his inexperience in the position (and the game in general) this would have encouraged teams who were paying close attention. His tackling was good and he showed a willingness to commit his body to the spoil. Given a year or two playing reserves football (what you expect from a KP anyway) I could see him develop into a very nice KP especially with the elite endurance that he has (remember he won the 3km at Camp last year). He needs to develop his run from defense which is not evident in his game at the moment but overall I thought he showed some promise. He is still pretty thin in the upper body but he is starting to fill out in the legs. He is a fringe draft candidate but I would have thought Smouha might have been one of the first guys the Gold Coast contacted when looking to sign up guys so it would not surprise me if a team has promised to take him with a late pick or as a rookie at least.

 

[WALL-e]

Good effort mate, obviously put a lot of work into it, but don't the Crows have pick 44?

 

[myers_23]

mate essendon dont have pick 39.. its geelongs now.

 

[Dave The Man]

Great Effort Mate but Why did you have the Pies taking Walters when there a Higher rated players still to be Drafted?

 

[Quigley]

mate essendon dont have pick 39.. its geelongs now.

Damn stuffed a couple of picks up here. Give me a couple of minutes and I will edit.

 

[Quigley]

Great Effort Mate but Why did you have the Pies taking Walters when there a Higher rated players still to be Drafted?

Because they are not higher rated by me.

 

[micky_11]

Great Effort Mate but Why did you have the Pies taking Walters when there a Higher rated players still to be Drafted?

Did you read his foreword at all?

 

[bLuEbOy1984]

Thesis

 

[Primetime Pricey]

mate i reckon this is the best mock draft so far, it shows u have put in a fair bit of effort into it even if i dont agree with some picks.
Great stuff

 

[Dave The Man]

Did you read his foreword at all?

Yes and I see that and I agree but Why Walters at Pick 11 and plus we don't need those small forwards who might become mids we have Plenty of those types already

 

[Mario the Lothario]

Great effort put in Quigley, but if North actually draft those four players in those four spots then I will be writing dirty letters to the drafting department.

I have no idea why North would take a Hall with pick 27 when we have Wells, Harvey, Thomas, Campbell, Garlett and Ben Ross on the books. The strong rumour is that Jayden Post is a lock in at 27 for North if he is still on the table at that pick. This would seem wiser as at least it attempts to rectify Norths key defensive short comings.

Once again, great effort.

 

[Asgardian]

Fantastic effort

All of the hours, & hard work you've done to create a phantom like this is much appreciated by us Bigfootyites.

One point, sorry to niggle, but Port have pick 42, we got it from Richmond in exchange for Adam Thomson

 

[sarah.13]

Pick 39 went to geelong for Prismall

 

[Quigley]

Pick 39 went to geelong for Prismall

Yeh I did most of this before trade week and didn't change the picks correctly. They should be right now.

 

[smiddaz123]

Is this where you rate the players personally, or where you think they will go?

 

[Quigley]

Is this where you rate the players personally, or where you think they will go?

It is usually where I rate them personally but occasionally I took someone who I think will go at a particular spot or I couldn't see them falling past a particular point even though I didn't particularly rate them eg Hartlett.

Then there are guys who fell a bit because I wanted to put others in. For example I think Walters and O'Keefe are worthy first rounders and given that they weren't getting much attention I made sure I put them in. Then it came down to who got left out of the first round. It ended up being Yarran and Blease who are actually guys who I like and I would think are likely first rounders on the day. Would I put Walters and O'Keefe ahead of those two? I think I would put them on a par and given that leaving those two out of the first round was the unusal thing to do and would get people thinking a bit that is what I went for.

 

[Quigley]

Yes and I see that and I agree but Why Walters at Pick 11 and plus we don't need those small forwards who might become mids we have Plenty of those types already

Walters is a mid the same way as Ablett is a mid and Rioli will become a mid. I agree you have great small forward depth but Walters is foremost a mid who can play forward when he is needed to.

 

[Bubba_5]

Quigley, very well done, the most comprehensive phantom I have seen

I completely agree with you on Hill, I don't rate him and the headless chook phrase is one I usually use . Very hit and miss. I've got to disagree in regards to Strauss and Sloane though, I rate them both very highly and both of them are first and formost footballers which I like to see.

 

[From 45]

Very good mock draft, however I believe Carlton would take Nahas as their small forward option.. Ratts absolutely loves him