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Quigley's 2011 Mock (Warning: Reading Required)

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Quigley said:
I pick for need this year when the talent pool is thin and take a punt you are not going to miss out on much either way. Next year I love the small / medium talent and are not as high on the depth of the KPs (at least atm although that could change with another year under their belt). Next year I wouldn't want to be passing on a potential star small because I have an overwhelming need to go tall.
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Sometimes you do have to address list management at the draft table. Clayton had a 'best available with good picks' philosophy that left us a short team for a long time. Using poor picks to address needs isnt good risk management, its more like crossing your fingers and wishing three times that the hole in the list would go away.

Two good picks, back to back, in a strong draft seems an ideal time to address needs with one of those picks.

But if the quality difference between the best small and the best tall is as big as you say, then yeah, you dont pass up stars for mugs just because they are tall.
 
I just signed up so I could say thank you for the effort :D

I would not have a clue about these draftees if it wasn't for you guys on here.
 
Great Read

Just wondering if you had any thoughts on where the pre-listed GWS 17 year olds would have gone
 
youve made my day at work a hell of a lot more enjoyable.

just wondering, in your opinion which of GWS or GC do you think has done/will do better with their drafting and pre selecting of players, comparing the two talent pools? This years draft has been consistantly rated as rather shallow however the top end of talent looks remarkably good which is where GWS will take their talent from
 

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On the GWS preselected players below is the answer I posted on the Lions board about who got the better of GC v GWS.

GWS I think although we'll probably have a better idea after next year when get to see them play. GC didn't get a lot out of their crop this year apart really. Smith (who I am counting although not technically one of their 12) looks fantastic, McKenzie is a weapon and Matera I think will be a great little player. Nicholls is the other who looks like he has real potential. Toy and Jolly two big disappointments for me and the rest pretty invisible.

For GWS they didn't take any rucks but the mids look a fair bit better than what GC picks up. Shiel should be a great player. Bugg and Darley I think should also play a lot next year and Hampton looks like the next big indig star in the making. Golds and Treloar are another two who I liked as juniors who I am keen to have a look at next year. In the talls Cameron is better than any of the GC key position group and Hombsch apparently did pretty well as well (although I don't recall him). They didn't really get any rucks though. GWS did however lose 3 or 4 to the go home syndrome and I know they are worried about that becoming a trend already.

Hard to know where exactly those guys would slot in now but Cameron, Shiel and Hampton have all performed like top 5 talent for me this year. Others like Bugg, Treloar, Darley, Hombsch would all be comfortably in the first round.

For picks 1-5 this year and last are pretty comparable. I would probably have taken last year's crop though nws that I would take Wingard every day of the week instead of Bennell. 5-10 this year has the edge I think but 10-15 definitely last year's group. The mids available to GWS are equivalent to those available to GC. Longer is better than Gorringe for talent but the KPs after Patton are very poor this year. Lucky they already have a few good young prospects in place.

Mohr and Davis are two excellent young defenders and are much ahead of the GC KPDs. Day I think though will develop into a top shelf defender for GC. Lynch was a guy who really surprised me with how well he went this year and I think he should develop into a very good player. GWS have GC covered by a long way though up forward for tall talent. Patton and Cameron are top shelf talent and even Folau looks the goods. Then there is the talent like Bruce behind them who I rated highly as a junior.

GWS will struggle with the uncontracted players they have attracted so far being well below what GC got last year. They do not have a GAJ there to pick them up and carry them and Rischitelli was a bit of an unsung hero for them as well.

Overall I think their young talent will be pretty comparable although the true strengths will be in different areas. GWS will struggle more early and ultimately will have more trouble hanging onto its talent. If the teams get it together both have the talent to win a premiership. I am not convinced though that they have the will.
 
Nothing wrong with him stefoid.

I don't get to see much TAC and get most of my opinions on players from watching the Champs. I accept that this may not always give an accurate reflection of the talent out there but that's really all I have. Kerridge was a not a factor at the Champs.

Kerridge ran great at Combine but for me he was in the third round mix and I did not see a huge amount to separate him from the likes of McKenzie from Tasmania who if anything was better credentialled. Kerridge is a mature bodied, very fit kid who used that to dominate against kids in the TAC at the end of the year. I thought he might struggle to have the same impact at AFL level and in fact I think he is most likely to end up as a tagger in the AFL. Usually I don't pay much for taggers.

But like I said I did not get to see much of his great run home and so have not seen much of him at his best. It's entirely possible that I have undersold him.
 
Quigley said:
Nothing wrong with him stefoid.

I don't get to see much TAC and get most of my opinions on players from watching the Champs. I accept that this may not always give an accurate reflection of the talent out there but that's really all I have. Kerridge was a not a factor at the Champs.

Kerridge ran great at Combine but for me he was in the third round mix and I did not see a huge amount to separate him from the likes of McKenzie from Tasmania who if anything was better credentialled. Kerridge is a mature bodied, very fit kid who used that to dominate against kids in the TAC at the end of the year. I thought he might struggle to have the same impact at AFL level and in fact I think he is most likely to end up as a tagger in the AFL. Usually I don't pay much for taggers.

But like I said I did not get to see much of his great run home and so have not seen much of him at his best. It's entirely possible that I have undersold him.
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Kerridge played 3 games for Bendigo Bombers in the VFL as the 23rd man late in the 2012 season.

Apparently he impressed Bendigo watchers, hence the interest from Bulldogs and Essendon.
 
Your assessments are outstanding in their attention to detail and the incredible knowledge you have of each player. I was seriously impressed!!!
 
stefoid said:
Hey Quigs, sorry to keep badgering you, but can you give us Clay Smiths pros and cons? enquiring doggy fans wnat to know!
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Clay Smith
DOB 11/5/93 Ht 180 Wt 82

Clay Smith I see as being a Mitch Robinson type player. He is smaller than Robinson but is that same kind of hard nut who commits himself to every contest. He also loves to hand out thumping tackles a lot like Robinson. I am not sure he is going to have the size to do that too much at AFL level but his tackling is good. Generally he just seems to thrive on the physical aspects of the game.

A lot like Robinson when he started one of the big problems with Smith is his kicking. He is a poor kick with a variable style that lets him down too often. He will occasionally have a two handed drop which just looks terrible and can go anywhere. This is the main reason he wasn't in my mock to start with. I find it hard to take guys who miss targets are crucial times.

He will strictly be an inside mid at the next level where his kicking can be disguised. In tight he is not hugely clean but he is serviceable and his hands are pretty quick. He has pretty good strength allowing him to break tackles but he does leave his feet a bit more than I would like. He tends to run at people at bit in the contest and gets buffetted around a bit and gets tackled more than I would be comfortable with if I was his coach. I think the coaching staff need to get him to concentrate a bit more on just trying to win the ball rather than being physical in the contest. His handballing is solid.

At the Combine he showed elite endurance with a fantastic 15.23 in the beep. His agility testing was also very good and his speed off the mark over the first 5 metres is elite. I think his top end speed is only average (he ran a 3 flat in the 20m) but he gets to that top end speed very quickly. He is not a jumper and showed that at Combine. He is never going to be a marking target and rarely even tries to be so preferring to wait down.

He is pretty good reading the ball off the hands of his forwards in crumbing situations but is a poor finisher often missing goals he should get. For someone with his endurance base I was also disappointed with his outside game at the Champs. He didn't get much in the way of uncontested possessions and finished with only 17 possessions a game. For someone who was onball as much as him that was a fairly pedestrian return.

Still after coming back from the Champs he played strongly in the TAC and had some very good games matched up on guys like Tyson who went right at the top of the draft. He has a great attitude and works very hard on and off the field. I think he interviewed very well at Combine and a lot of teams were interested in him coming into the draft. Like Robinson I see him as being a tough physical player with quite a few rough edges that are going to need polishing. He will be a presence in the middle though and combined with Libba and Wallis the Bulldogs could have a very strong clearance combination for years to come.
 
Quigley said:
Brandon Ellis
DOB 3/8/93 Ht 181 Wt 83

Ellis is a powerfully built HBFer who should be able to step in and play AFL right away. He has all the physical tools to let him start from round 1 next year. He is physically mature and has an excellent engine as evidenced by his 15.4 in the beep test (4th overall) at Combine. He understands his position well and was a bit of an unsung hero for Metro at the Champs I think.

Time and again at the Champs he was the one at the back tidying up the mess. He covered an enormous amount of ground and was able to sniff out when there was a problem and got to the right place to clean it up. This was particularly evident at the end of games when everyone else seemed to be tiring. Defensively I think he reads the play very well and positions himself to influence the play. Going forward I am not so sure about his play reading ability.

In attack I think Ellis does not read how play is going to develop particularly well. He makes plays to guys who whilst open have few options open to them or who were open to make a play a short time before but by the time they receive the ball the chance has been shut down. That is not to say he takes bad options at junior level but I do have some concerns that these poor reads will be exploited more at AFL level. His option taking is usually fairly conservative and he works it out of the back half most often with short chip passes.

His kicking style is a little awkward particularly on the left but he is pretty good at hitting his targets off either foot most particularly with his short to medium range kicks. He has reasonable penetration with his long kicks and gets surprising distance with his non-preferred. He can sometimes overestimate his length and underestimate the time it will take to get there but I really don’t see much wrong with his kicking at all. He has pretty quick hands for a HBF in the contest and he can get a bit of zip on his handballs. Again he can go a little bit beyond his range with the handball on occasions forcing the receiver to wait but overall he is one of the better long handballers in this draft.

Athletically he is excellent except for one thing and that is his pace off the mark. From a standing start he is very slow but once he gets things moving he actually has a pretty good top end speed. In the sprints at Combine he was in the bottom 10% over the first 5 metres but he picked up speed on most others over the remaining 15 metres and ended up with a reasonable time of 3.05. This good top end speed was also borne out in the 30m repeat sprint where he managed a very good time to place him in the top 13% of those tested. That’s pretty good for a guy with significant pace concerns. In addition to the very good endurance tests he also was just outside the top 10 in the agility and both the standing and running jumps. The agility and jumping were great for a guy with his build and are important when assessing his ability to hold his own as a defender at AFL level.

Defensively he is not often a tight marker but that is a function of the way junior football is played. With his skill set I think he could play as either a HBFer at AFL level or could move into the midfield as a tagger who can win his own ball. Down the track I could easily see him being one of the better taggers in the game. At the moment he is a hard at it style of player but is not probably as physical as his physique would suggest. He can throw his weight around but he is not a big hitter in the tackles nor does he overplay the physical contests. He will try to break tackles but he does not get through them all that much but credit to him he is not caught holding the ball much even when he is caught. I like his tenacious style and the dependable nature of his work in the defensive half and I think whoever picks him could get a reasonable player who goes about his job quietly and does the little things which will help teams win.
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Interesting thoughts, I've highlighted the relevant kicking comments. Quayle said he's a beautiful kick, and our recruiting manager called Ellis the best kick in the draft. Do you think they're over selling Ellis' kicking ability? It's just that while you haven't said he's a bad kick, you didn't imply his kicking is beautiful or elite either.
 
I think they are definately overselling his kicking but his kicking is pretty good. I have more a query with his decision making and play reading going forward. I can see quite a few turnovers early in his career not because of a poor kick but because he does not judge the closing speed in a press situation as well as he could. I think he will adjust but expect him to be pretty conservative and I do not see him carving opposition teams up with his kicking like the quotes might suggest. He can kick it nicely but he might not have the judgement to get the most out of his kicks.
 

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Correction on my part, Jackson said he was one of the best kicks in the draft, not the best. There was a piece in the hun raving about how kicking was a big deal at the tigers now and Ellis is part of that move. So what do you think they're seeing? Are they looking at his kicking style, his capacity to pin-point targets without looking at his judgement? Sounds like he's a good style of kick, just displays poor decision making at times. I suppose I'm wondering if he'll be a solution to our problem of kicking it out of defense which has been a major issue. No point being able to laser beam it 60 meters if you pass it to the wrong guy.
 
Quigley great mock draft.

Hawks went for Brad Hill who you do not rate. Graham Wright's comments interesting in saying that he does get to the right spots but doesn't demand the ball enough - what do you make of this??

Can you give us a more detailed rundown with your thoughts on him. Does he have a football brain at all?
 
Rob Kerr mentioned that Yeo was in the Lions top 20 (I know every other recruiter/talent manager says this, but he also was straight forward about rating Docherty at 12 where we got him), what are your thoughts on him? You mentioned how he struggled at Champs level, in your opinion, was it the step up in class, the pace or toughness etc. that meant he struggled?
 

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Richo83 said:
Correction on my part, Jackson said he was one of the best kicks in the draft, not the best. There was a piece in the hun raving about how kicking was a big deal at the tigers now and Ellis is part of that move. So what do you think they're seeing? Are they looking at his kicking style, his capacity to pin-point targets without looking at his judgement? Sounds like he's a good style of kick, just displays poor decision making at times. I suppose I'm wondering if he'll be a solution to our problem of kicking it out of defense which has been a major issue. No point being able to laser beam it 60 meters if you pass it to the wrong guy.
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I think they are looking at:

- his efficiency % which is likely to be good given he is usually pretty conservative with his kicks.
- his ability to kick well off either foot which is not common.
- the fact that he does on occasion go long and looks pretty reasonable doing it when he is in space and has time to weigh things up.
- the fact that he has not really been caught out much at junior level and I might be overstating the issue or seeing something which is not there.

I expect as he develops he will cut out the long ball a fair bit and just stick to the conservative short to intermediate options where he can just punch it in there. I think he should be fine coming out of defense I just do not expect him to carve teams up and be a great long kick out of defense. He should be solid and hopefully won't make mistakes.
 
JuddgementDay said:
Thanks for your mock.
Can you provide your thoughts on Carlton picks? In particular Bootsma who you didn't rate?
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Bootsma was very hard to rate by most mock drafters as he only come up to Perth during the middle of the year. Very raw player but has a lot of tools to make it at AFL level.

Talking to some Carlton people just before the draft, they rated him high. Talking to some other club people, Carlton may have drafted him a little early, but there was also many clubs that also rated him at the same level as Carlton. If he had played a year or two at Colts level, clubs could have made a better assessment of his ability.

He is quick, very good spoiling, long kicking and can use both sides. While he did not mind body contact, he does not have heaps of exposed form at Colts level. He is under developed physically and having not played in the WA team and a lot of football at Colts level it will take him some time to learn the structual elements to AFL. We may have to give this kid a year or so to develop before we expect him to break into our team.
 
Carlton are taking a very big punt on a guy who has been playing mostly as a KPB but is under 190cm tall. They are hoping to turn him into a flanker but there is a very big risk that he will bust out. Bootsma has very little exposed form, is still very raw and underdeveloped physically. All that makes him very difficult to assess and not living in WA almost impossible for me.

On the positives he has pretty good speed and probably plays quicker than he times. His endurance base is reasonable and once he gets into a full time environment I am confident it will not be an issue at all. A further killer to any chance of him playing a KPD role or even as a third tall really is that he does not really get off the ground either.

Just looking at the testing I just noticed he has tiny tiny hands. 17.6cm is about as small as I have seen. Let's hope that the old addage is not true but at least he can get some comfort that if it is true he has gone to the right club ;)

He was certainly taken earlier than I would have been comfortable taking him but I have not seen anything of him either and there were a few teams apparently interested. I would be surprised if the Carlton fans got to see much of him next year as I think he will spend a lot of time building up physically and getting used to training and playing at a level much higher than he is used to.

Rowe is a big, inconsistent key forward who can ruck a bit if needed. He has flashed some very real talent doing things which amaze but he goes missing entirely too often at SANFL level to have any confidence that he can perform at AFL level. He has good hands both above his head and below his knees but does not seem to have a particularly good feel for the game. He has good speed on the lead and a nice leap on him. He does not lead to good spots and does not time his leads particularly well. When he ends up in the right spots you often think its a result of good luck rather than good planning. He may be an upgrade on Setanta but I wouldn't get your hopes up too much.
 
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