Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Tazmania]

That West Coast symbol is still homing in on that Freo symbol. Every week its gets a little bit closer. Its a bit like watching Jaws.

Not for long. You watch what happens when Freo gets to play the bottom teams like your mob has.

 

[peppy la pew]

How does Freo go backwards after a win ?

 

[Paracleet]

How does Freo go backwards after a win ?

Didn't reach offensive expectations of the model

 

[Randomizor]

How does Freo go backwards after a win ?

Did we? Thought we got better defensively but just worse offensively

 

[peppy la pew]

Didn't reach offensive expectations of the model

Essendon beat the reigning premiers and we rolled them.

That model is a hard taskmaster

 

[CrimsonRaven]

Essendon beat the reigning premiers and we rolled them.

That model is a hard taskmaster

Doesn't take into account teams managing players with a large lead in the bank. Necessary evil.

 

[Micksy]

Good week for: Geelong!

 

[greatgatsby]

That West Coast symbol is still homing in on that Freo symbol. Every week its gets a little bit closer. Its a bit like watching Jaws.

The progress of that Eagle is indeed disconcerting. Luckily if it gets too close the beak will shatter on the anchor!

 

[Purple Suit]

Something I find cool about probability is how quickly unlikely events become likely if you get a few goes at it. There are 22 games in the regular season. If a team was so horrifically bad that they entered every single game as massive underdogs, 97% likely to lose (the squiggle's maximum), there's still a very solid chance they'll win at least one... 1 - (.97^22) = 49%.

This is why it's so rare for teams to go through a season with no wins (or undefeated).

Not really related, but a similarly counter-intuitive example of probability is the Birthday Problem. If you have 23 people in a room, what are the odds at least two share the same birthday? It feels like the answer would be pretty low, when in fact it's 50%. When I was younger I almost got punched at a party because a dude had discovered that two people there shared the same birthday and he thought that was a miracle and I said it wasn't. IT WASN'T.

You damn Right it's not a miracle. Every night i have dinner with 5 people in the room and three of them share the same Birthday and none are twins.

 

[MattyB_76]

You damn Right it's not a miracle. Every night i have dinner with 5 people in the room and three of them share the same Birthday and none are twins.

Is that because they are triplets?

 

[Purple Suit]

Is that because they are triplets?

Nope, all born different years.

 

[cryptor]

If you take Hawthorn out of the equation it would currently be predicting a Freo v Sydney drawn GF at 72 a piece.

 

[lamaros]

Is that because they are triplets?

This thread attracts a certain type, doesn't it?

 

[TBellicious]

I feel like in this thread people look at the chart and try and take something major out that it is telling us and interpret it in a way which is groundbreaking but in the end is nothing really major or groundbreaking at all.

That's me anyhow.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I feel like in this thread people look at the chart and try and take something major out that it is telling us and interpret it in a way which is groundbreaking but in the end is nothing really major or groundbreaking at all.

That's me anyhow.

All it does is show a moderately accurate representation on where each team stands in the competition.

 

[MattyB_76]

This thread attracts a certain type, doesn't it?

Don't you mock my lateral thinking.

 

[AlibiMonday]

All it does is show a moderately accurate representation on where each team stands in the competition.

That's downplaying it more than a little.

It's essentially a "corrected" view of the ladder when you look at the form view. The forecast view translates that into a more familiar wins/losses at the end of the season, taking into account the uneven strength of opposition for remaining games.

Anyhow, it was primarily setup to illustrate whether or not your team was in the premiership zone. However, due to the rigour behind it, if you're curious enough it offers some incredibly interesting insights.

 

[Oneiros]

Hawthorn is the only one really up there with the Premiership teams of yore... but they're 3-3 with a few issues. Fremantle is a bit odd though. This penchant for snoozing the last quarter ... half ... sometimes three and a half quarters of matches means their squiggle is actually only tangentially reflective of their strength. Could be an oddity that persists through the season.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Hawthorn is the only one really up there with the Premiership teams of yore... but they're 3-3 with a few issues. Fremantle is a bit odd though. This penchant for snoozing the last quarter ... half ... sometimes three and a half quarters of matches means their squiggle is actually only tangentially reflective of their strength. Could be an oddity that persists through the season.

I feel like that "easing" off corrects itself in the finals. Hawthorn did it most of last year as well, and the year before. Then in the finals, you see huge movement (to their proper position)

 

[Final Siren]

I feel like in this thread people look at the chart and try and take something major out that it is telling us and interpret it in a way which is groundbreaking but in the end is nothing really major or groundbreaking at all.

That's me anyhow.

The only part that's really new is the visual representation of where teams sit. I haven't seen that anywhere else.

Aside from that, the ladder predictor, etc, are essentially versions of what you can find elsewhere... although this might be the only one that shows you all its logic. That's a big part of what makes it useful, imho, since it lets you assess where it gets things right or wrong, and take whatever is useful to you, as opposed to having to swallow the whole thing on faith.

But bottom-line what it gives you is a pretty reasonable picture of how well teams have been doing, stripped of fixture bias. So when Hawthorn are 3-3, which is pretty terrible for a defending premier, you can see whether that's actually panic stations or not. (Not.) Or last year, when Gold Coast were 3rd after Round 10, whether they really were a serious contender like everyone said. (Not.) This isn't so much to do with prediction but rather summarizing results in visual form.

It's easy to get carried away with a few results and forget the ten or twenty games before that. What the squiggle won't do is predict who's going to get better or worse, but in terms of telling you where teams are at, I think it's pretty handy.

 

[clogged]

The only part that's really new is the visual representation of where teams sit. I haven't seen that anywhere else.

Aside from that, the ladder predictor, etc, are essentially versions of what you can find elsewhere... although this might be the only one that shows you all its logic. That's a big part of what makes it useful, imho, since it lets you assess where it gets things right or wrong, and take whatever is useful to you, as opposed to having to swallow the whole thing on faith.

But bottom-line what it gives you is a pretty reasonable picture of how well teams have been doing, stripped of fixture bias. So when Hawthorn are 3-3, which is pretty terrible for a defending premier, you can see whether that's actually panic stations or not. (Not.) Or last year, when Gold Coast were 3rd after Round 10, whether they really were a serious contender like everyone said. (Not.) This isn't so much to do with prediction but rather summarizing results in visual form.

It's easy to get carried away with a few results and forget the ten or twenty games before that. What the squiggle won't do is predict who's going to get better or worse, but in terms of telling you where teams are at, I think it's pretty handy.

I see it as a weighing system as opposed to a predictive one. I think it's the best representation of how teams are going at the moment. Fremantle are going well at the moment, but it still rates Hawthorn as better. I think that's fair, all things considered.

Its main drawback is in its weight of defensive performances. It rates defence too highly in my view.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I see it as a weighing system as opposed to a predictive one. I think it's the best representation of how teams are going at the moment. Fremantle are going well at the moment, but it still rates Hawthorn as better. I think that's fair, all things considered.

Its main drawback is in its weight of defensive performances. It rates defence too highly in my view.

That is the thing though, it views offence and defence as equals. Is it harder to score more or keep the opposition to a lower score? Would need to answer that question before changing the weightings of offence and defence

 

[WWSD]

Despite our average start to the season we are still by far the highest scoring side in the competition yet again.

 

[mattis117]

Despite our average start to the season we are still by far the highest scoring side in the competition yet again.

By far? 30 points over the eagles

 

[Vintage]

By far? 30 points over the eagles

Dude, you've got to give him something - his unbackable for the flag team are 3 and 3 having lost to some pretty mediocre sides