Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[catstorm]

Loving the current squiggle

Bit unrealistic though really, the chances of you guys beating Geelong at the G are about 1 in 10.

It also has you wining comfortably, despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[Noseybonk]

Thread is confusing. And CBF reading 256 pages to discover the secret. Could be a Dan Brown thread. Then again.

 

[my name was taken]

Stkilda squiggle just doing stkilda squiggle things

 

[RookiePick]

Bit unrealistic though really, the chances of you guys beating Geelong at the G are about 1 in 10.

It also has you wining comfortably, despite all evidence to the contrary.

2 from 2, when it counts, by my recollection

 

[catstorm]

2 from 2, when it counts, by my recollection

We not counting prelims, I kinda think they count no?

Also 22 and 24 years ago are not particularly relevant to your current team.

 

[Rod Stroker]

I'm not sure about this squiggle. It just got 4 out of 9 tips incorrect for round 8. What impact does that have on the squiggle?

 

[Quinz]

I've always thought the Squiggle was wise and omnipotent.

 

[MWPP]

Bit unrealistic though really, the chances of you guys beating Geelong at the G are about 1 in 10.

It also has you wining comfortably, despite all evidence to the contrary.

It makes complete sense, since grand finals are tipped using Flagpole
The squiggle has power the dark lord knows not
Besides , as noted above , 2/2 in GFs

 

[woosha24]

West Coast squiggle gets a rocket up the bum after the Geelong debacle and goes flying off into the right-hand side of the graph.

 

[RobZombie]

no. They have a long way to go to get there, without going back and checking i believe that the Squiggle would have predicted North to win most of their games so far and as such they're aren't defying expectations and with a % of ~123 they aren't going out and demolishing teams with big attacking scores and good defensive efforts

EDIT: The squiggle seems to be pretty good at predicting North's game so far:

Rd.1 Prediction: North by 19
Result: North by 10

Rd.2 Prediction: North by 31
Result: North by 34

Rd.3 Prediction: North by 39
Result: North by 5

Rd.4 Prediction: North by 30
Result: North by 31

Rd.5 Prediction: North by 21
Result: North by 38

Rd.6 Prediction: Bulldogs by 7
Result: North by 16

Rd.7 Prediction: North by 37
Result: North by 7

Rd.8 Prediction: North by 54
Result: North by 14

Aside from Adelaide and Bulldogs, North haven't played any good opposition, normally you would expect them to flog those teams, yet their biggest win has been 38 points and it hasn't been a "run from hell"

With a tough finish to the season, they are going to be up against it to even make the GF let alone win it (For comparison, Fremantle had a percentage of ~155 at this stage last year after being 8-0 and we all know what happened to them)

tl;dr North are no-where near "Premiership standard" and with a hard finish, won't be

So relative to squiggle predictions -9; +3; -34; +1; +7; +23; -30; -40. 4 games better than predicted, 4 games worse. Failure to capitalise on momentum and run of play to build a big lead the last 2 weeks (1.3 in a dominant 10 min vs StK, a bunch of missed shots after the Wood injury this week) hurt the squiggle position a fair bit. I also pretty much discard the Melbourne game in Hobart as an outlier due to the freaky conditions. Of course the squiggle has no such bias to fall back on.

I agree there's nothing in the squiggle that looks like a likely premier, and taking the foot off the gas instead of going on to blow teams out is definitely a concern. But 8-0 is 8-0 and while I'm not silly enough to suggest they're "pacing themselves" they have the look of a side that knows how to win.

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

So relative to squiggle predictions -9; +3; -34; +1; +7; +23; -30; -40. 4 games better than predicted, 4 games worse. Failure to capitalise on momentum and run of play to build a big lead the last 2 weeks (1.3 in a dominant 10 min vs StK, a bunch of missed shots after the Wood injury this week) hurt the squiggle position a fair bit. I also pretty much discard the Melbourne game in Hobart as an outlier due to the freaky conditions. Of course the squiggle has no such bias to fall back on.

I agree there's nothing in the squiggle that looks like a likely premier, and taking the foot off the gas instead of going on to blow teams out is definitely a concern. But 8-0 is 8-0 and while I'm not silly enough to suggest they're "pacing themselves" they have the look of a side that knows how to win.

the problem is the worse than expected and who it is against IMO, as well as when comparing the Better and Worse differentials the big Red Flag as it were was how big the gap is......sure teams are going to have lower than expected games but you would hope that its against big opponents that are pushing for Top 4 (as North are) in a hard fought game, not against a team like Essendon.

8-0 is a great position to be in, but if you look at the predictor and the fixture itself, North have a very hard run to the finish

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I wonder if Final Siren could provide a "by team" home ground advantage factor, and also an away game factor. I'm sure the Eagles (for example) would have a huge difference in both directions.

Or even a by-team "accuracy" factor - which team is most consistent as per squiggle? Which is harder to pick?

 

[iluvparis]

The last two weeks is why I would love to see an Eagles squiggle that only accounts for games in WA and compare to one that compares it to all other games. I'm guessing the former would make them look like one of the all time great times while the latter would make them look a bottom 8 side.

 

[baldandbroke]

Last year's round 8 ladder ...

http://footyforecaster.com/AFL/Ladder/2015_Round_8

Don't under-estimate the SQUIGGLE as an end of year predictor, much water to drift under the collective bridges of a few teams before this year's order is settled!!

 

[Catfish Alley]

What was it predicting in Round 8 last year?

 

[Pessimistic]

Bit unrealistic though really, the chances of you guys beating Geelong at the G are about 1 in 10.

It also has you wining comfortably, despite all evidence to the contrary.

Geelong are back baby, but Squiggle rates this team as a defensive contender, whereas the 07-11 tended to be more on the attacking 'wing'

 

[Pessimistic]

I wonder if Final Siren could provide a "by team" home ground advantage factor, and also an away game factor. I'm sure the Eagles (for example) would have a huge difference in both directions.

Or even a by-team "accuracy" factor - which team is most consistent as per squiggle? Which is harder to pick?

maybe related to the free kick advantage?

 

[WCE Wizard]

The last two weeks is why I would love to see an Eagles squiggle that only accounts for games in WA and compare to one that compares it to all other games. I'm guessing the former would make them look like one of the all time great times while the latter would make them look a bottom 8 side.

Agreed however the following away games will define our season
(1) Bulldogs
(2) Adelaide
(3) GWS
if we can win one or two of those then we will be in a box seat.

 

[iluvparis]

Agreed however the following away games will define our season
(1) Bulldogs
(2) Adelaide
(3) GWS
if we can win one or two of those then we will be in a box seat.

Box seat to make a grand final perhaps. Winning it is another matter

 

[WCE Wizard]

Box seat to make a grand final perhaps. Winning it is another matter

Agreed that is the issue well its something the players have to work out sooner rather than later. If they cant fixt it now then they never will.

 

[Oneiros]

Box seat to make a grand final perhaps. Winning it is another matter

Eh, even if the away form holds, if it's a non-Vic GF it probably doesn't matter. But that's a loooooong way down the roadsquiggle.

 

[BotsMaster]

2 from 2, when it counts, by my recollection

I have a feeling this year could go the way of 1992 but the Eagles can't seem to play well away from home and would need to find an answer before finals.

Maybe replace West Coast with GWS in the Grand Final result.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

How on earth can the Flat Track Bullies be the only team on the border of the Premiership Zone.

Surprised North looks so bad, what's the context to explain it's Squiggle position?

 

[iluvparis]

How on earth can the Flat Track Bullies be the only team on the border of the Premiership Zone.

Surprised North looks so bad, what's the context to explain it's Squiggle position?

Close wins against teams squiggle doesn't rate.

 

[Mcveigh]

I'll hazzard a guess Final Siren is still on a bender from Saturday nights win...