Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Surprised that the Swans are only 9 point favourites considering their form, scores, attacking position and defensive position are all (in some ways vastly) superior to GWS.

I'd like to know what the form predictor says rather than ISTATE-92 which you've said before can be a better predictor in finals.

The other three finals all have home advantage built-in. YES EVEN THE GEELONG ONE AT THE MCG. Sydney v GWS doesn't, so you have to win through awesomeness alone.

ISTATE-91:12 (aka regular squiggle) is solid in all finals except Grand ones, so it's what I'll be using. Flagpole is good at tipping Grand Finals and at rating premiers early in the year.

 

[The Swans Blog]

The other three finals all have home advantage built-in. YES EVEN THE GEELONG ONE AT THE MCG. Sydney v GWS doesn't, so you have to win through awesomeness alone.

ISTATE-91:12 (aka regular squiggle) is solid in all finals except Grand ones, so it's what I'll be using. Flagpole is good at tipping Grand Finals and at rating premiers early in the year.

Disappointing, as Swans have a clear ground advantage vs GWS @ ANZ, as well as a positive finals win record there.
Guess we'll just have to do them in by a 6 or 7 goals for Squiggles to give us a chance

 

[Final Siren]

FAO Final Siren

Apologies for my ignorance, I only check in on this thread from time to time so am not completely au fait with the mechanics behind it.

In respect to the squiggle flagpole, it appears after round 23 West Coast have risen above Hawthorn, however your finals projections have Hawthorn defeating West Coast in week 2. Can you perhaps breakdown how this is possible? Does the squiggle flagpole run independent of finals match-ups?

Yes, that's right. Flagpole is the "I don't know how they'll get there, but they'll get there" tipper.

Last year was a great example of how it can work well, when Hawthorn were rated highly, but unlikely to finish in the Top 2. There was no single game that you could point to and say the Hawks were likely to cause an upset: tipping each individually, you would have the Hawks finishing 3rd and losing interstate finals. But there was a good chance of an upset somewhere, which would allow them to either have home finals or to reach the GF by winning on the road.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Yes, that's right. Flagpole is the "I don't know how they'll get there, but they'll get there" tipper.

Last year was a great example of how it can work well, when Hawthorn were rated highly, but unlikely to finish in the Top 2. There was no single game that you could point to and say the Hawks were likely to cause an upset: tipping each individually, you would have the Hawks finishing 3rd and losing interstate finals. But there was a good chance of an upset somewhere, which would allow them to either have home finals or to reach the GF by winning on the road.

Cheers, appreciate the insight.

 

[MC_9]

Sydney by 10 over GWS: 61.5% win likelihood
Geelong by 20 over Hawthorn: 70.2%
Adelaide by 32 over North: 79.4%
West Coast by 27 over Bulldogs: 76.1%

These are a fair bit more emphatic than you usually see in finals week 1.

Is the squiggle giving Geelong home ground advantage?

Edit: Answered above.

 

[cat in sydney]

Compare the mess that is 2016*:

This for me is the single biggest indicator of how open this season is in regards to the premiership. It's great going into September with the legitimate feeling of not knowing who will win, rather than the "I hope __________ wins, but it's probably going to be Hawthorn" feeling of resignation. We're set for a cracker of a finals series.

 

[Final Siren]

 

[DrEvil_]

The Lions probably showed this to Leppa when they sacked him.

 

[The Swans Blog]

The Lions probably showed this to Leppa when they sacked him.

Would rather see Voss vs Leppa. Neither were particularly brilliant, or great, or even good coaches, and neither should have been senior coaches, but they didn't deserve to be treated the way they have been.

I was filthy when Carlton got rid of Ratten and the vitriol he still receives is absurd. Carlton played the best under him for 20 years and he even had spuds and potatoes playing out of their skins. Under Ratten they made a semi. Under every other coach after 1998/99 (Britton?) they've played like assholes and had coaches that couldn't do anything because of draft restrictions.

 

[The Gong]

I've heard of the magic quadrant. This, I would take it, is the soul crushing quadrant.

 

[sverik25]

When further analysis of the position of premiers on the squiggle leads you to the realisation that your club lost in GFs or PFs to three of the lowest rated premiers of the last 20 years...

 

[The Swans Blog]

I've heard of the magic quadrant. This, I would take it, is the soul crushing quadrant.

An excellent addition to Squiggles is adding a wooden spoon to the chart for each team thst ginished last in the lsst 20 years. Adds some excitement for those teams at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Seeds]

The other three finals all have home advantage built-in. YES EVEN THE GEELONG ONE AT THE MCG. Sydney v GWS doesn't, so you have to win through awesomeness alone.

ISTATE-91:12 (aka regular squiggle) is solid in all finals except Grand ones, so it's what I'll be using. Flagpole is good at tipping Grand Finals and at rating premiers early in the year.

So if hawthorn finished second and geelong third and they played at the same ground you would predict a different margin and possibly result. Well that is a flaw in the system.

 

[onthemoney]

What sort of results would be required for Squiggle to Squiggle a dick 'n' balls?

 

[beert]

So if hawthorn finished second and geelong third and they played at the same ground you would predict a different margin and possibly result. Well that is a flaw in the system.

Final Siren has posted on this previously.

It sounds like a flaw, but surprisingly it is more accurate than predicting the same result either way. No-one's sure why, that's just the way it works.

 

[Brishawk]

So if hawthorn finished second and geelong third and they played at the same ground you would predict a different margin and possibly result. Well that is a flaw in the system.

IT doesn't have to make rational sense, it just has to work. giving the home ground advantage to the higher finishing team is done because it makes the results more accurate

 

[GreyCrow]

What a lovely butterfly surrounding round 1 2015

 

[iluvparis]

So if hawthorn finished second and geelong third and they played at the same ground you would predict a different margin and possibly result. Well that is a flaw in the system.

Perhaps there is enough information embedded in a year long ladder position that it does make a difference.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Final Siren please add those spoons!

 

[treefingers]

IT doesn't have to make rational sense, it just has to work. giving the home ground advantage to the higher finishing team is done because it makes the results more accurate

I've posted this a few times in here already, but it's definitely a flaw. It's just a statistical anomaly, there's no solid reasoning behind it.

 

[Hawkie_McHawkHawk]

This for me is the single biggest indicator of how open this season is in regards to the premiership. It's great going into September with the legitimate feeling of not knowing who will win, rather than the "I hope __________ wins, but it's probably going to be Hawthorn" feeling of resignation. We're set for a cracker of a finals series.

In my mind it's really not that open. Sydney will win the premiership and the rest are making up the numbers, your mob probably the best chance to make the grand final.
For me it's the most obvious conclusion in years, by way of Sydney having the mix of experience, youth, talent, scoring ability and a stingey defense to go with the hunger of atoneing for 2014.

Hawthorn are tired and at about 2am, Geelong inconsistent and bottom few are poor, Adelaide let's be honest aren't good enough and gws on the way but not quite. And that's the premiership right there

 

[beert]

I've posted this a few times in here already, but it's definitely a flaw. It's just a statistical anomaly, there's no solid reasoning behind it.

Perhaps. Do you have a p-value on that difference, Final Siren?

 

[DrEvil_]

I've posted this a few times in here already, but it's definitely a flaw. It's just a statistical anomaly, there's no solid reasoning behind it.

Or perhaps your feeble mind just cannot grasp the genius of the squiggle.

 

[Bruton77]

So if hawthorn finished second and geelong third and they played at the same ground you would predict a different margin and possibly result. Well that is a flaw in the system.

If the Hawks finished 2nd and the Cats 3rd, that would mean the results earlier in the season would be different. That would have an effect of the score of said final.

Most likely.

 

[Final Siren]

Perhaps. Do you have a p-value on that difference, Final Siren?

It's been a long time since I've tested a null hypothesis! I'm not sure I remember how to do that.

What do you want to compare it with? With nominal home ground advantage, which the squiggle uses, it's always clear who gets it. With geographic home ground advantage, not so much. You have situations like:

• Hawthorn vs Fremantle in Tas
• Hawthorn vs North in Tas
• Melbourne vs Port in Darwin
• St Kilda vs Richmond @ the MCG
• Geelong vs Port Adelaide @ the MCG
• Geelong vs North @ the MCG
• West Coast vs Sydney @ the MCG

Tell me who gets home ground advantage (if anyone) in those situations and I can tell you how it does at tipping.