Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Procrastinator35]

On a that very note, because so much of the narrative this week leads back to 2012, there is some symmetry between 2012 and 2014 in the betting market... not a lot but some. Im not saying we'll win but the odds are very eery! I don't believe lightening strikes twice so write it off as something that is unusual but completely meaningless to the result at hand

Unless of course you believe in Karma!

 

[The Swans Blog]

Right. So to hold your current chart position against a weak team, you might need to win by five goals, whereas against a strong team, a 2-goal loss might be good enough.

The other thing is that interstate home advantage is worth 12 points. So the Swans winning by 2 goals at home is seen as an equivalent performance to them losing by 2 goals away.

It doesn't matter if you have a hard draw or an easy one, play all your matches at home or away: the squiggle will account for this.

I like that you use different algorithms for the finals because home advantage is important, but as we saw with Port, it isn't as big a factor as it is in the regular season.

Interesting to note that most indicators are pointing towards a Swans victory and most pundits point to a Swans victory. One can only hope that the Swans don't go in confident and work their asses off to prove everyone right.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ans-are-running-hot-20140926-10lpzh.html#poll
Even the poll is 67% in favour of the Swans with 25k votes.

 

[cryptor]

$2.45 odds for us in perfect conditions (no rain or breeze) for a possession and precision based game plan. Our strongest name side all season and at our home ground...

Ridiculous odds.

Only possible explanation is that the betting agencies took a lot of money on the Swans early in the year when their odds blew out due to their slow start and now they're trying to cover themselves. Remember, this game has effectively been taking bets since before this time last year. The teams were simply not known yet.

 

[The Swans Blog]

$2.45 odds for us in perfect conditions (no rain or breeze) for a possession and precision based game plan. Our strongest name side all season and at our home ground...

Ridiculous odds.

Only possible explanation is that the betting agencies took a lot of money on the Swans early in the year when their odds blew out due to their slow start and now they're trying to cover themselves. Remember, this game has effectively been taking bets since before this time last year. The teams were simply not known yet.

I think it has something to do with finishing 1st, displaying better form for most of the season, going in the higher rated team, and performing better overall in the finals series. I don't think it has anything to do with make-believe nonsense.

I'm still waiting for Roby's predictions to come up. I suspect that he doesn't want to post them because he has the Swans winning.

Funny enough he changed his team to Melbourne.

 

[Final Siren]

I like that you use different algorithms for the finals because home advantage is important, but as we saw with Port, it isn't as big a factor as it is in the regular season.

Interesting to note that most indicators are pointing towards a Swans victory and most pundits point to a Swans victory. One can only hope that the Swans don't go in confident and work their asses off to prove everyone right.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ans-are-running-hot-20140926-10lpzh.html#poll
Even the poll is 67% in favour of the Swans with 25k votes.

There's a landslide of opinion behind the Swans, but note how close all the tips are!

It's a bit like how that Rotten Tomatoes site classes all movie reviews as either positive or negative and then gives you the split, like "80% positive:" that might mean that 8/10 reviews only thought it was barely passable.

If the Swans are 51% likely to win today and everyone knows it, then logically 100% will tip Sydney, even though the result could easily go either way.

 

[cryptor]

I think it has something to do with finishing 1st, displaying better form for most of the season, going in the higher rated team, and performing better overall in the finals series. I don't think it has anything to do with make-believe nonsense.

I'm still waiting for Roby's predictions to come up. I suspect that he doesn't want to post them because he has the Swans winning.

Funny enough he changed his team to Melbourne.

It's a fact that the Swans flag odds went out significantly after their first few rounds. It's not hard to believe that punters would've loaded up knowing they'd eventually click. And bookies set the market prices so they make a profit far more often than not. When punters win the money comes from their coffers so they're going to cover themselves. Not sure what part of that is "make believe".

I'm certainly not saying Sydney aren't deserved favourites because they are. Just not 1.58 to 2.45.

We'll know within 6 hours though.

 

[Dipper]

Did we win?

 

[cryptor]

It's a fact that the Swans flag odds went out significantly after their first few rounds. It's not hard to believe that punters would've loaded up knowing they'd eventually click. And bookies set the market prices so they make a profit far more often than not. When punters win the money comes from their coffers so they're going to cover themselves. Not sure what part of that is "make believe".

I'm certainly not saying Sydney aren't deserved favourites because they are. Just not 1.58 to 2.45.

We'll know within 6 hours though.

Love being right.

 

[WWSD]

We stuffed up the squiggle.

 

[cryptor]

We stuffed up the squiggle.

After looking at the live update I'd say we've fixed it if anything.

 

[Periphery]

The squiggle lied, Sydney died.

 

[The_Steadier]

My statistical analysis is based on Franklins Per Team (FPT).
Sydney FPT= 1
Hawthorn FPT= 0

Swans win.

I forgot to mention the margin for error = 1

 

[Hawkk]

I think it has something to do with finishing 1st, displaying better form for most of the season, going in the higher rated team, and performing better overall in the finals series. I don't think it has anything to do with make-believe nonsense.

I'm still waiting for Roby's predictions to come up. I suspect that he doesn't want to post them because he has the Swans winning.

Funny enough he changed his team to Melbourne.

There is a very good chance we may never see this poster again

 

[Hawkk]

On a side note, would it be fair to say the 2014 Hawthorn squiggle would belt the 2013 squiggle? Amazing considering our run of outs!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Awesome thread this one, I just kept coming back all year even though I had very little idea how the **** this thing worked.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

So the bleeding obvious was ignored all year? Why?

 

[The Swans Blog]

There is a very good chance we may never see this poster again

you're wrong, don't be a dick.

 

[Hawkk]

you're wrong, don't be a dick.

A softish draw franked the Swans. In a way Roby was vindicated in a big way

 

[Leather Poisoning]

Squiggle denied!

It's back to power rankings now.

But seriously - the elation that hawk fans are feeling is in part because the result surprised all of us as well.

Nobody picked this result - and although most media people and bigfooty punters tipped Sydney the margin was typically four goals or less.

So the squiggle is still a beautiful thing, and the unpredictability of footy in general makes it also a beautiful thing.

 

[Paul Kersey]

I'm going against the squiggle this week. No offence Final Siren - I usually believe in it, just not this week.

 

[Paul Kersey]

08 and now, 14. Hawthorn has a knack for denying the squiggle!

I thought we would win by four goals though didn't see this coming.

 

[3MASON]

08 and now, 14. Hawthorn has a knack for denying the squiggle!

I thought we would win by four goals though didn't see this coming.

You also denied the squiggle in 2012.

And I didn't see it coming as well

 

[Procrastinator35]

We stuffed up the squiggle.

The Squiggle needs to be re-gigged in order to account for 'Faux ladder finishing positions', fabricated by 'manufactured' AFL draws, incommensurate with actual ladder finishing positions from the years prior!....Perhaps we could refer to such a factor from now on as the 'Bottom of the Harbour anomaly'???

The media 'beat-up' of the Swans swept away all before it....Including 'the Squiggle', or so it seems!

 

[clogged]

There is a very good chance we may never see this poster again

Fingers crossed.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Still here.

Fingers crossed.