Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[cryptor]

Christmas has come early this year I see.

 

[MC_9]

Oh, it's a long and lonely time, the off-season. To make it a little more bearable, here is a 2015 Squiggle preview!

Basically the 2015 Interactive Squiggle is online and has a few new features.

First of all, it's the usual squiggle chart, with 2015 starting positions. You may notice you can hover over a team on the chart to get a handy diagonal line, which is meant to make it easier to compare teams.

The season predictor is up and running, pencilling in a Hawthorn three-peat.

But also! Here is where it gets sexy. You can now drag teams to different positions on the chart, click FORECAST, then GENERATE a season prediction based on their new spots. That's right, you can now correct blatant squiggle errors with your own superior insights! You even get a permalink for sharing with others - e.g. see this Tiger Utopia.

This is still a work in progress, so please let me know of any problems or suggestions for how things could work better!

 

[Square Peg]

Forget the Hawthorn three peat, that's passe, the season predictor says we will win the first ever derby final. I feel deep affection for the season predictor.

 

[treefingers]

Very interesting with West Coast 5th in the predictor

 

[Stromageddon]

I'm a huge fan of the ergonomic diagonal line hovering manoeuvre, Final Siren.

The ability to generate my own corrected squiggle with my clearly superior qualitative insights is kinda neat too.

 

[Stromageddon]

http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/20...dney=2,1&West Coast=2,1&Western Bulldogs=1,3#

Here's mine

 

[Stromageddon]

http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/20...0,50&West Coast=50,50&Western Bulldogs=50,50#

And here's one rather simple way to rate fixtures, by making all teams have equal rankings and letting the draw/formula do its work.

 

[Iron]

http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html?Adelaide=50,50&Brisbane Lions=50,50&Carlton=50,50&Collingwood=50,50&Essendon=50,50&Fremantle=50,50&Geelong=50,50&Gold Coast=50,50&Greater Western Sydney=50,50&Hawthorn=50,50&Melbourne=50,50&North Melbourne=50,50&Port Adelaide=50,50&Richmond=50,50&St Kilda=50,50&Sydney=50,50&West Coast=50,50&Western Bulldogs=50,50#

And here's one rather simple way to rate fixtures, by making all teams have equal rankings and letting the draw/formula do its work.

That's an incredibly ineffective way of ranking a fixture. On the other hand, it's at least 90% more effective than whatever the media have said.

 

[Engimal]

Squiggle predicts North to finish 7th. It's very sweet of the squiggle to have a go, but we all know there's no equation than can predict how bizarre North Melbourne's season will definitely be.

 

[estibador]

Very interesting with West Coast 5th in the predictor

Oh well, the squiggle can't be right all the time.

 

[Final Siren]

http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/20...dney=2,1&West Coast=2,1&Western Bulldogs=1,3#

Here's mine

I'll take it for the 340-point victory over Carlton in Round 1.

 

[LeverPuller]

Hey Final Siren - does the squiggle get statistically reduced to the mean at all from season to season, or do all teams begin at their position from the previous year?

 

[Final Siren]

Hey Final Siren - does the squiggle get statistically reduced to the mean at all from season to season, or do all teams begin at their position from the previous year?

Something in between. They start 2015 where they would have finished 2014 if everybody had begun the year at 50 ATTACK/50 DEFENCE. In the same way, for the 2014 squiggle, everyone started where they would have finished 2013 if they'd begun at 50/50.

What's basically happening is we're dropping the data from more than 12 months ago. This has the effect of dragging teams back together a bit.

Collingwood begins 2015 very low because their injury-plagued end to 2014 was so bad: the squiggle makes no allowances for players recovering from injury over the off-season.

Adelaide & West Coast benefit from strong finishes to 2014.

 

[Port01]

Adelaide & West Coast benefit from strong finishes to 2014.

I also see the top left as the flat track bully area.

 

[Final Siren]

Very interesting with West Coast 5th in the predictor

Yes, that was a bit surprising. The squiggle has five teams ranked very close: Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, Geelong, and Richmond. But it thinks the fixture will help the Eagles into a better ladder position.

This is something I've seen elsewhere: there is a great nerdy article here that also concluded West Coast stands to be a significant beneficiary of the fixture, even though their draw is not the easiest. They just have it a bit easier while all the teams competing for the same spots on the ladder have it a bit harder.

 

[KillaKanga]

So is there a thread for 2015? I searched (if there is one, NOT hard enough it seems)

This thread was my go to EVERY single week, several times.

Will the NAB cup be included? I know those games are for tinkering and will need to be 'wiped' for the season proper but would enjoy seeing the movement nonetheless.

 

[Seppo]

So is there a thread for 2015? I searched (if there is one, NOT hard enough it seems)

This thread was my go to EVERY single week, several times.

Will the NAB cup be included? I know those games are for tinkering and will need to be 'wiped' for the season proper but would enjoy seeing the movement nonetheless.

Go back about a page and you will find the new squiggle post.

Or click here
http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html

 

[KillaKanga]

Go back about a page and you will find the new squiggle post.

Or click here
http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/2015.html

Cheers,

I was wondering if a 2015 BF Thread had been started yet.

 

[Augustine]

In my humble opinion I think a brand new Squiggly Thread should be started for 2015. I want as many people to follow the best thing on BigFooty as possible.

 

[shotgun_blues]

Final Siren,

You've got a bit of Squiggle Cola going on. In round 8 Hawthorn beat Sydney yet Sydney are credited with the win on the ladder??? :-/

 

[KillaKanga]

Final Siren,

You've got a bit of Squiggle Cola going on. In round 8 Hawthorn beat Sydney yet Sydney are credited with the win on the ladder??? :-/

The wins aren't counted as 'wins'. You were earn points based on how well you perform. So Swans get 0.34 points this takes their total from 5.39 rounded to 5 so 5 wins, goes up to 5.75 and rounds up to 6 wins.

It's based on your opponent. A close win to a top 4 team is worth more than a medium win against Melb/St K

Hope that makes sense.

 

[Richo83]

Yeah you really have to wallop the lower teams to get a bump, the squiggle is mainly based on things like overall score and scoring shots. If you lost to a top team but played better than usual, you'd get a rise in your squiggle.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Funny how Carlton lean towards the attacking side of the chart. Really shows how mindless most footy analysts are with their 'stodgy Malthouse defence' assumptions.

 

[Richo83]

Funny how Carlton lean towards the attacking side of the chart. Really shows how mindless most footy analysts are with their 'stodgy Malthouse defence' assumptions.

I haven't heard that that much, I have heard claims that Carlton are the most boundary hugging side in the league.

 

[Stromageddon]

Forgot the squiggle existed (blasphemy!). Final Siren, your avatar always reminds me to check on my nation, too.

EDIT: Still #1 in the world for Most Authoritarian and Most Conservative.