Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Final Siren]

Final Siren is it possible you post your system's tips here Roby style?

They're far more accurate and worth a look for people who aren't across your system yet.

Tips are auto-generated on the interactive squiggle but honestly they haven't been great this year. The ISTATE-91:12 algorithm is only tipping at 66.7%, which is 6/9 each round for a total of 46/69. That's the worst in about a decade, and almost 10% lower than the last three years.

You might remember earlier I said that there is a slightly more complicated variation (ISTATEVH-91:12) that verifies home ground advantage, but I don't use it because I wanted to keep things simple and the variation doesn't do that much better... well this year it's doing quite a bit better, tipping at 69.6%. Which is only two more correct tips, but still, I should probably switch to that, as its advantage is well-proven, however slight, and it's the algorithm I used to generate all the historical interactive squiggles (1897-2013).

The squiggle has been loving Carlton this year, though. Which is probably just chance, because you expect it to fluke some ripper tips, but it's nice to look at:

Tip: Richmond 95 - 81 Carlton
Real: Richmond 98 - 86 Carlton

Tip: Carlton 85 - 82 West Coast (3pt margin)
Real: Carlton 92 - 89 West Coast (3pt margin)

Tip: Carlton 74 - 104 Collingwood
Real: Carlton 70 - 104 Collingwood

Some other good tips:

Tip: Collingwood 79 - 85 Geelong
Real: Collingwood 76 - 87 Geelong

Tip: North Melbourne 96 - 83 Port Adelaide
Real: North Melbourne 97 - 90 Port Adelaide

Tip: Geelong 87 - 73 Richmond
Real: Geelong 81 - 76 Richmond

Plenty of stinkers, though.

 

[Pessimistic]

It's a shame it's May

Care to find an example in the excellent website where a team retreated back into the pack from a similar point ?

Try geelong 2008

 

[Catfish Alley]

Care to find an example in the excellent website where a team retreated back into the pack from a similar point ?

Try geelong 2008

What am I meant to see?

 

[Pessimistic]

Nothing much, geelong did fade a bit last year in the squiggle

2014 suggests hawks will at least make the grand final, with no standout opponent at this stage

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

2014 suggests hawks will at least make the grand final,

Not with our injury list and old players

 

[Catfish Alley]

I haven't really gone through it all but I'd suggest that many teams sitting 2nd (or even 1st) on the ladder in Round 9 didn't make the Grand Final. That said, yeah, you'd be low odds to make the Grand Final at this stage considering you're like 3-1 for the Premiership.

 

[Pessimistic]

Not with our injury list and old players

Or our mental weaknesses, the loss of buddy

 

[Pessimistic]

I haven't really gone through it all but I'd suggest that many teams sitting 2nd (or even 1st) on the ladder in Round 9 didn't make the Grand Final. That said, yeah, you'd be low odds to make the Grand Final at this stage considering you're like 3-1 for the Premiership.

But this is the squiggle thread

 

[Hawkk]

Or our mental weaknesses, the loss of buddy

Its probably forgotten, but the Lions in 2003 are probably the best example of just how difficult it is to stay atop after making back to back Grand Finals.

http://www.maxbarry.com/squiggle/2003.html

From rounds 1-10, the Lions were the runaway leader with a 8-1-1 record. Over the next 7 weeks they went 2/5, fell to seventh before going win/loss/win for the remainder of the season to stumble into third with a 14/7/1 record. Their premiership credentials were tested further with a convincing loss to Collingwood in the Qualifying Final before securing back-to-back-back knockout finals victories and taking out the flag with easily their most convincing Grand Final display in the trilogy

Despite these battles, and even at their lowest ebb, the Lions were still ahead of the pack for the entirety of the season with respect to the squiggle.

 

[Final Siren]

Care to find an example in the excellent website where a team retreated back into the pack from a similar point ?

Try geelong 2008

Yeah, it just doesn't happen. Once a team hits that kind of area, it always winds up in a Grand Final.

Some teams miss the GF if they only briefly get close-ish to that area either early or late in the year, and/or have other teams ahead of them. But they look like obvious fringe cases, and always play at least a final or two anyway. (One example is Geelong 2012, which started in a good area following their 2011 premiership but fell out by Round 6 and wound up losing an Elimination Final. And there's Carlton 1994, discussed earlier.)

Hawthorn's injuries may send their squiggle downward now, but it would take a record-breaking collapse to miss the Grand Final from here.

 

[Final Siren]

I love the squiggly lines, but still have no idea how they all work.
I would have thought after last weeks win against Freo, Port would have moved closer to the premiership area of the graph, but seem to have moved away from it.

Its confusing... but awesome at the same time

The squiggle already rated Port and expected them to beat Freo (at home).

Tip: Port Adelaide 84 - 72 Fremantle
Real: Port Adelaide 94 - 76 Fremantle

So not much difference, which means not much squiggle movement. But both teams scored a little more than the squiggle expected, so Port moves up (for being more attacking) and leftward (for letting Fremantle score more points).

 

[clogged]

Yeah, it just doesn't happen. Once a team hits that kind of area, it always winds up in a Grand Final.

Some teams miss the GF if they only briefly get close-ish to that area either early or late in the year, and/or have other teams ahead of them. But they look like obvious fringe cases, and always play at least a final or two anyway. (One example is Geelong 2012, which started in a good area following their 2011 premiership but fell out by Round 6 and wound up losing an Elimination Final. And there's Carlton 1994, discussed earlier.)

Hawthorn's injuries may send their squiggle downward now, but it would take a record-breaking collapse to miss the Grand Final from here.

Geelong 2010?

 

[Hawkk]

Geelong 2010?

Looking at the squiggle, the Cats were in the range from about round 10 through until round 16 and again from round 20 until the Preliminary Final. That said, the disparity between Geelong, Collingwood and the W Bulldogs for the most part was very close.

Thinking back to 2010 if not for a holding the ball call late in the Geelong V St Kilda Qualifying Final it more than likely would have ended up being a Geelong V Collingwood GF

 

[Final Siren]

Geelong 2010?

Oh wow, yes, you're right. Geelong 2010 (lost a prelim) didn't get as deep as Hawthorn, but they were definitely skirting the area from Round 12, and especially after Round 20.

Not the same as Hawks this year, but the closest example.

 

[SJ]

Looking at the squiggle, the Cats were in the range from about round 10 through until round 16 and again from round 20 until the Preliminary Final. That said, the disparity between Geelong, Collingwood and the W Bulldogs for the most part was very close.

Thinking back to 2010 if not for a holding the ball call late in the Geelong V St Kilda Qualifying Final it more than likely would have ended up being a Geelong V Collingwood GF

Push in the back call.

The thing is that year, Geelong was pretty dominant except against St Kilda and Collingwood. We went 1-4 against those teams, and 17-3 against the rest of the competition. The Collingwood and St Kilda defensive structures rendered our ball overuse-game completely ineffective, whereas that game plan still paid huge dividends against basically every other team.

 

[Pessimistic]

Of course, the squiggle isnt actually going to kick the goals

 

[clogged]

Push in the back call.

The thing is that year, Geelong was pretty dominant except against St Kilda and Collingwood. We went 1-4 against those teams, and 17-3 against the rest of the competition. The Collingwood and St Kilda defensive structures rendered our ball overuse-game completely ineffective, whereas that game plan still paid huge dividends against basically every other team.

Cats IMO were the best performed team against the rest of the competition in 2010, something that strangely went forgotten going into 2011.

Really that era from 2007-2011 was basically all about the dominance of Geelong, with the best coaches (Clarkson, Malthouse, Lyon) basically structuring their side around beating the Cats in big games.

 

[juzzo]

Gibson to miss 2 months. If Hawthorn win again it will be a great effort.

 

[The Swans Blog]

What I find interesting about the Crows/Pies game is both move down and to the right.

 

[Illinois Nazi]

Of course, the squiggle isnt actually going to kick the goals

Damn! I just picked it in my Supercoach team!

 

[manboob]

Really that era from 2007-2011 was basically all about the dominance of Geelong, with the best coaches (Clarkson, Malthouse, Lyon) basically structuring their side around beating the Cats in big games.

Malthouse has even said as much in interviews.

 

[Eshay187]

The "Paul Roos" effect on melbournes line is strong!

No better offensively but work being done on the defence.

 

[Final Siren]

The "Paul Roos" effect on melbournes line is strong!

No better offensively but work being done on the defence.

Melbourne look like they are tip-toeing around the back of the pack. Then before anyone realizes, they will POUNCE on the premiership!

 

[Final Siren]

What I find interesting about the Crows/Pies game is both move down and to the right.

Yep, that happens when both teams score less than the squiggle expected. Kicking a lower score means you head downward, and holding the opposition to a lower score means you head rightward.

The squiggle expected Adelaide 81 - 83 Collingwood. The real scoreline was 76-55.

 

[Andre]

Yep, that happens when both teams score less than the squiggle expected. Kicking a lower score means you head downward, and holding the opposition to a lower score means you head rightward.

That makes sense, although it then brings weather into account. E.g. play a game in the wet and cold and end up with a 60-30 scoreline as opposed to a 120-60 if the weather had been fine.

Given you said about the scoring earlier with the algorithm favouring the defense, the squiggle would favour the teams more (for the defense + offense total) in the wet low scoring game. It shouldn't matter over a season if all teams get the same number of these games, but as that doesn't happen you could make an argument for a weather adjustment to boost the scores for squiggle calculations in wet weather games. In practice it'd be impossible since there's obviously degrees of how much grounds / games are affected and therefore should be adjusted.