Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[MWPP]

Unlike West Coast that just had a soft draw all season. I looked at the teams you beat at home and just Lol, talk about soft.

Completely off the mark.
At home against interstate sides we have a 10-1 record
- 1-1 record against Hawks who finished third (the loss was close and in the context of key outs)
-Huge (i.e. over 50 point) home wins against the other top 8 sides we played at home - 5th (Sydney)/6th (Crows) /8th (Bulldogs ) . We didn't play Richmond at home, but beat them comfortably away.

Our form has mostly been outstanding at home

Our draw definitely wasn't soft.
This is who we played from round 15 to 22:
-Adelaide, Collingwood away , Sydney, Gold Coast away , Hawthorn , Fremantle, Bulldogs, Adelaide away

We also had a tough patch prior to the bye . Many people thought the start of our season was easy , but we still had some tough games (Bulldogs away, Port away, derby ).

North's draw over the last few weeks of the home and away season on the other hand , was soft!

 

[GordonT]

So Ross Lyon has been at Freo since 2012. 4 years. And he has done nothing about getting another tall fwd to go alongside Pavlich. I do like his no nonsense and anti-mythology approach but you have to wonder about his intelligence on list mgt sometimes.

You must be taking the piss.
If your posting on BF then your on the internet, stop having a cry about your clubs failings and do some research.

Where was sonny last seen?
sonnywalters was last seen: Viewing thread Fremantles lack of scoring power, 22 minutes ago.

Get over it.

 

[The Speaker]

You must be taking the piss.
If your posting on BF then your on the internet, stop having a cry about your clubs failings and do some research.

Where was sonny last seen?
sonnywalters was last seen: Viewing thread Fremantles lack of scoring power, 22 minutes ago.

Get over it.

Don't mind sonny, he has had a new personality installed since his ban.

 

[Roby]

So Ross Lyon has been at Freo since 2012. 4 years. And he has done nothing about getting another tall fwd to go alongside Pavlich. I do like his no nonsense and anti-mythology approach but you have to wonder about his intelligence on list mgt sometimes.

Interestingly today he said in his press conference I've listened to all the permuations and theortical models.

“When the ball is bounced we all start as equal,” he said.

“I hear all the permutations, I hear all the theoretical models, I hear about expectations and past performance.

Fyfe, Johnson ready, McPharlin in doubt

“All that’s going to matter when the ball is bounced is who puts their head over the ball and runs really hard and uses the ball well, that’s as complex as I make it.”

http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2015-09-21/hawks-an-offensive-juggernaut-lyon

 

[iluvparis]

Interestingly today he said in his press conference I've listened to all the permuations and theortical models.



http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2015-09-21/hawks-an-offensive-juggernaut-lyon

Actually - all that's going to matter Ross is the final score.

 

[Roby]

Which is why I'm shit scared that you now agree on the rankings...

I actually spoke to Kingy on SEN some time in June and said when will you people take West Coast seriously given they have the best percentage in the competition and will probably finish top two and get two home finals and are likely to play in the Grand Final. His response was: "I'm not convinced of West Coast, they have had a soft draw, yadda, yadda". Anyway he's tipped Hawthorn to win the flag? Should they win he's bound to get one right after a series of incorrect ones.

Back to the numbers!

Average predicted margin across six models for Friday's prelim:

Hawthorn 19 points (16 points median)

Average predicted margin across six models for Saturday's prelim:

West Coast by 34 points (31 points median)

 

[cryptor]

I actually spoke to Kingy on SEN some time in June and said when will you people take West Coast seriously given they have the best percentage in the competition and will probably finish top two and get two home finals and are likely to play in the Grand Final. His response was: "I'm not convinced of West Coast, they have had a soft draw, yadda, yadda". Anyway he's tipped Hawthorn to win the flag? Should they win he's bound to get one right after a series of incorrect ones.

Back to the numbers!

Average predicted margin across six models for Friday's prelim:

Hawthorn 19 points (16 points median)

Average predicted margin across six models for Saturday's prelim:

West Coast by 34 points (31 points median)

I can see King doing a back flip that would make the Russian Olympic gymnastics coach gush following the PF results.

If Hawthorn win in a close one and West Coast belt North Melbourne then he'll probably flip to say Hawks look tired after all the traveling while West Coast are fresh and hold the mental edge from the QF win.

 

[sproketman]

I actually spoke to Kingy on SEN some time in June and said when will you people take West Coast seriously given they have the best percentage in the competition and will probably finish top two and get two home finals and are likely to play in the Grand Final. His response was: "I'm not convinced of West Coast, they have had a soft draw, yadda, yadda". Anyway he's tipped Hawthorn to win the flag? Should they win he's bound to get one right after a series of incorrect ones.

When was this Roby?

Mid way through June when you had West Coast 8th in the Power Rankings?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-afl-power-rankings.1091941/page-58#post-39097590

 

[The Lemon]

When was this Roby?

Mid way through June when you had West Coast 8th in the Power Rankings?

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2015-afl-power-rankings.1091941/page-58#post-39097590

 

[Pessimistic]

I still look in awe how hawthorne beat geelong in 2008, a team way better than it in attack and defence by a fair margin. Its the only grand final win in recent years where thats happened

Then look at freo to hawthorn and west coast. Its the same senario, except they need to do it twice. Tonight may be easier with the home final and weeks rest, but to then turn round and repeat that ?

 

[Fire]

I still look in awe how hawthorne beat geelong in 2008, a team way better than it in attack and defence by a fair margin.

I look in awe at how you managed to mispell your own team.

 

[utility]

I still look in awe how hawthorne beat geelong in 2008, a team way better than it in attack and defence by a fair margin. Its the only grand final win in recent years where thats happened

2009 was a big upset. Not sure what the squiggle said though.

 

[SJ]

2009 was a big upset. Not sure what the squiggle said though.

2009 grand final wasn't a huge upset. In fact Geelong may have gone in favourites.

 

[utility]

2009 grand final wasn't a huge upset. In fact Geelong may have gone in favourites.

Saints won two more games and 28% more percentage than Geelong. They lost two games all year by 2 and 5 points respectively - comparable with Essendon in 2000 and better than Carlton in 1995. They conceded 52 and 53 points in the QF and PFs. They beat Geelong during the H&A season. Would have had the game sewed up at 3/4 time if they had kicked straighter too.

Maybe not as big a difference from Hawthorn over Geelong but big nonetheless.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

I actually spoke to Kingy on SEN some time in June and said when will you people take West Coast seriously given they have the best percentage in the competition and will probably finish top two and get two home finals and are likely to play in the Grand Final. His response was: "I'm not convinced of West Coast, they have had a soft draw, yadda, yadda". Anyway he's tipped Hawthorn to win the flag? Should they win he's bound to get one right after a series of incorrect ones.

Back to the numbers!

Average predicted margin across six models for Friday's prelim:

Hawthorn 19 points (16 points median)

Average predicted margin across six models for Saturday's prelim:

West Coast by 34 points (31 points median)

You said that in June? Yet in August you predicted that John Worsfold would make a prelim with a new club before Adam Simpson made one. Interesting.

 

[seysearles]

Welcome to 2009-2012 at the Hawks after Croad went down, frustrating isn't it

 

[iluvparis]

Saints won two more games and 28% more percentage than Geelong. They lost two games all year by 2 and 5 points respectively - comparable with Essendon in 2000 and better than Carlton in 1995. They conceded 52 and 53 points in the QF and PFs. They beat Geelong during the H&A season. Would have had the game sewed up at 3/4 time if they had kicked straighter too.

Maybe not as big a difference from Hawthorn over Geelong but big nonetheless.

Good story.

But geelong started $1.65 faves - it wasn't even an upset.

 

[Max zero]

Why can't people just admit that WC's rise was something no one predicted and just take it as one of those sporting events that go into folklore?

 

[Illinois Nazi]

Why can't people just admit that WC's rise was something no one predicted and just take it as one of those sporting events that go into folklore?

I sure as hell didn't predict it.

 

[Randomizor]

Why can't people just admit that WC's rise was something no one predicted and just take it as one of those sporting events that go into folklore?

If you'd bet me 10k the Eagles would make the Prelims, I'd have taken it in a heartbeat

 

[Smeg Head]

Why can't people just admit that WC's rise was something no one predicted and just take it as one of those sporting events that go into folklore?

Our boards resident soothsayer predicted it.

 

[Max zero]

Our boards resident soothsayer predicted it.

Go Eagles is not a mere person but a legend, who better to dispense wisdom on myth and destiny?

In other words he does not count.

 

[Art OF war]

Go Eagles is not the hero WCE deserved, but the one that we needed.

 

[Pessimistic]

2009 was a big upset. Not sure what the squiggle said though.

I should explain, I went through

2009 was a big upset. Not sure what the squiggle said though.

I looked at my post from a while back, i plotted all the recent grand finals as vectors flowing from the grand final losers squiggle position to the premiers position. Note these are positions after the grand final, so not a true predictor, even less so for a prelim.
But, do teams make huge sqiggle moves in the last two weeks of a season ?

What im saying is a team almost never beats a team to the north east of its position in a grand final.

Theres as many teams in the defensive zone beating those in the attcking zone as vice versa, and plenty of smashings where a team better in both attack and defence beats an inferior team.
Note these are grand finals only, where the mcg is about as neutral as it can get

These are where the vectors come from

 

[Pessimistic]

If you look at my vectors (which are free hand and a little bit rough ) and see that hawks and eagles are currently close together, near collingwood 2010. Nect look ar the vectors where a grand final teams are close in squiggle territory, in the to the north, north east or east of the premiership zone. 1989 is the standout, no wonder it was a sensational game. Others are 1987, 1984 where the more defensive team has won, and 1975, 1979, 1982 where the more attcking team won

Were the grand final to be eagles v hawks, squiggle suggests it could be a classic, I for one will be very happy I have a ticket. But the suggestion is the slightly more defensive team will win, which is the eagles

Either team would handle fremantle