Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Dirty Bird]

Final Siren - Amazing addition, makes it more addictive than ever before.
But I just wanted to say good work on taking extra time in finals into account.

Just had Carlton win in extra time vs Brisbane in the finals.

 

[Shane Hird]

Everyone loves the squiggle.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

with 33% luck in 2015 we beat Pies by 98 points in the grand final from top 4. If only.

 

[Final Siren]

Can't wait to see the breakdown for 2008.

And the consequential breakdown of Cats supporters when it likely has them winning the majority.

Actually!

1,000 simulations of 2008:

999 Hawthorn
1 Geelong

Consider:

The Hawks can't miss the Top 4. They would have had to drop 5 games:

1. Geelong 21-1
2. Hawthorn 17-5
3. Western Bulldogs 15-6-1
4. St Kilda 13-9

There's also no interstate opponent, so no danger of having to face a serious home ground disadvantage.

The Hawks smashed St Kilda and the Bulldogs in the finals (54 & 51 points), so it's extremely unlikely that those results get reversed.

And whatever you can say about the GF, the Hawks won it pretty comfortably, by 26 points.

So it takes a lot of randomness to prevent Hawthorn from meeting Geelong in the GF, and then beating them.

 

[Fizzler]

I hope your 2016 prediction is wrong

 

[cryptor]

Actually!

1,000 simulations of 2008:

999 Hawthorn
1 Geelong

Consider:

The Hawks can't miss the Top 4. They would have had to drop 5 games:

1. Geelong 21-1
2. Hawthorn 17-5
3. Western Bulldogs 15-6-1
4. St Kilda 13-9

There's also no interstate opponent, so no danger of having to face a serious home ground disadvantage.

The Hawks smashed St Kilda and the Bulldogs in the finals (54 & 51 points), so it's extremely unlikely that those results get reversed.

And whatever you can say about the GF, the Hawks won it pretty comfortably, by 26 points.

So it takes a lot of randomness to prevent Hawthorn from meeting Geelong in the GF, and then beating them.

I actually prefer this more lol

 

[Final Siren]

Here are the rest of the years back to the advent of the current finals system in 2000. 5% luck + 1,000 simulations:

2007
918 Geelong
65 Collingwood
14 Port Adelaide
3 Adelaide

Geelong's 5-pt prelim win over Collingwood is the Cats' only danger game.

2006
583 West Coast
309 Sydney
108 Adelaide

A volatile year! There was only 1 win difference between 4th and 8th, so the top 4 could easily have been different, with home state advantage coming into play. Then of course there's the 1-pt Grand Final.

2005
596 Sydney
204 St Kilda
127 West Coast
73 Adelaide

The top 4 teams were involved in finals decided by 4, 8, 3, 16, and 4 points.

2004
815 Port Adelaide
89 St Kilda
87 Brisbane Lions
9 Geelong

Port always have it over the Lions in the GF, but both teams only just made it there, with Port defeating the Saints by 6 points and Brisbane beating Geelong by 9.

2003
924 Brisbane Lions
71 Collingwood
2 Adelaide
2 Sydney
1 Port Adelaide

Brisbane's last three finals victories were by big margins, so at first I was surprised to see them not win the flag in every single simulation. But the Lions only made the top 4 on percentage, and lost their first final to Collingwood. They could have finished 5th instead and been knocked out by the Pies.

2002
962 Brisbane Lions
38 Collingwood

A close GF (9 points), but the Lions almost always take the flag because the only team that can run them close in a final, Collingwood, finished 4th and can't always make it to the end.

2001
969 Brisbane Lions
30 Carlton
1 Essendon

Carlton lost a series of close games and could easily have finished higher, with the form to give Brisbane a contest.

 

[Final Siren]

So all the Crows needed was 2% luck to win the 2009 premiership

Would have gone down as one of the greatest finals series of all time

St Kilda 75-64 Adelaide
Geelong 94-80 Western Bulldogs
Collingwood 101-82 Essendon
Brisbane 111-105 Carlton

Adelaide 83-78 Collingwood
Western Bulldogs 111-56 Brisbane

St Kilda 60-52 Western Bulldogs
Geelong 83-85 Adelaide

St Kilda 67-71 Adelaide

Mmm, in fact you can get Adelaide the flag with 1% luck!

This is because Adelaide didn't play Geelong nor St Kilda in a final that year, so the model falls back on Advanced Squiggle Predictive technology (TM), which thought Adelaide were very competitive.

So the Crows just need to dodge the historical reality of their loss to Collingwood in the finals. This can be easily accomplished since Collingwood missed 3rd spot by only 0.3 percentage points. You just need the Pies to kick one more goal in any game of the season.

 

[The Punter]

2006
583 West Coast
309 Sydney
108 Adelaide

A volatile year! There was only 1 win difference between 4th and 8th, so the top 4 could easily have been different, with home state advantage coming into play. Then of course there's the 1-pt Grand Final.

This is what I mean when I talk about actual luck instead of mathematical luck.

What happens if the AFL Commission do not award Fremantle the win in SirenGate? St Kilda finish 3rd.

 

[Final Siren]

This is what I mean when I talk about actual luck instead of mathematical luck.

What happens if the AFL Commission do not award Fremantle the win in SirenGate? St Kilda finish 3rd.

Still hard to make a case for St Kilda in 2006, I reckon, since they lost an EF to Melbourne, who lost a SF to Fremantle, who lost a prelim to Sydney, who lost the GF to West Coast. A fair turnaround needed to change all that.

Also there's a much clearer shoulda-woulda-coulda team that year in Adelaide.

2004 & 2005, though, the Saints very well could have gotten up. And 2009 & 2010! Probably more missed chances than any other team this century.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Will you be going back further than 2000?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

What's the highest scoring door and the door with the most triple digit wins?

 

[seysearles]

Final Siren Does this mean that according to your indices Geelong 2011 was statistically a better premier than Essendon 2000? That is hard to believe.

 

[Papa G]

Final Siren Does this mean that according to your indices Geelong 2011 was statistically a better premier than Essendon 2000? That is hard to believe.


View attachment 203278

Dan26 will lose his shit.

 

[Final Siren]

Will you be going back further than 2000?

No, because I'd need to simulate the different finals systems that operated pre-2000, and there were a lot of them.

 

[Final Siren]

What's the highest scoring door and the door with the most triple digit wins?

Well, with 100% luck, scores are purely random between the bounds of 24 to 186 points (numbers arbitrarily chosen by me). And there are 4.3 billion doors per luck/skill point.

So I can't check them all, but there's probably a door where tons of games are 186-186 draws, and another with lots of 186-24 victories.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren Does this mean that according to your indices Geelong 2011 was statistically a better premier than Essendon 2000? That is hard to believe.


View attachment 203278

Basically yes, in the sense that the squiggle would tip Geelong 2011 to beat Essendon 2000. It's a bit of hair-splitting, because they're two of the all-time greats no matter which way you slice it. But the squiggle rates the quality of Geelong's opponents higher. In particular, the Cats soundly beat Collingwood, who of course were so good that they didn't lose to anyone else that year.

Essendon were more dominant, dropping only one game for the year, which is amazing. But the quality of the field wasn't as good. Two teams made finals with a percentage below 100, and 14 wins got you top 4 (3rd, even), compared to 17 for 2011.

Here are the other three members of the top-4 in each year, which had to be beaten to win the flag:

Essendon 2000 vs:
Carlton 16-6 135%
Melbourne 14-8 118%
North 14-8 106%

Geelong 2011 vs:
Collingwood 20-2 168%
Hawthorn 18-4 144%
West Coast 17-5 130%

Geelong's weakest opponent, West Coast, had a better record than Essendon's strongest opponent.

 

[Dirty Bird]

No, because I'd need to simulate the different finals systems that operated pre-2000, and there were a lot of them.

Dang
Was hoping to see what'd happen with 97/98

1997 - 3 games seperated 1st and 7th
1998 - 2 games seperated 3rd and 9th

With how close all that is, I thought throwing in just a small amount of luck would have resulted in some massive changes.

Like, with 1% luck we'd almost certainly manage Saints-Bulldogs in '97
But whatelse would happen.

 

[Final Siren]

Basically yes, in the sense that the squiggle would tip Geelong 2011 to beat Essendon 2000.

Also imagine 2011 if we take Geelong out of it: Collingwood go unbeaten (finishing the regular season 20-0 at 185.9%) and we're debating whether they're the greatest team of all time. They would probably be popularly ranked higher than Essendon 2000.

 

[cryptor]

Final Siren will we be able to do a sliding doors on the 2016 up to the end of the current round as the season unfolds or will it only be available after the season is complete?

 

[Richo83]

Minor premiers to 10th seems almost impossible barring injuries or other disaster

Maybe final siren ends up being right afterall?

 

[Komrade_Tiger]

Maybe final siren ends up being right afterall?

The squiggle knows all

 

[Gydafud]

I want to live in this reality

http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2008.html?door=3472690099&luck=10&year=2008

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Can u please plot melb 2014 v hawks 1989. Separate thread with some suggesting melb would win...

 

[Suma Magic]

Can u please plot melb 2014 v hawks 1989. Separate thread with some suggesting melb would win...

Squiggle doesn't work like that. It compares teams against their competition.

If the level of competition had improved dramatically (the issue the whole debate is about) then the squiggle wouldn't reflect that.