Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Suma Magic]

Im officially calling the squiggles bluff. On Thursday it predicted hawks to finish as minor premiers with 17 wins but that has eroded to 16 wins over the weekend
This ladder says Top of the ladder Hawthorn will have three more losses but Sydney and Adelaide will have only one more loss each. Bulldogs two more losses, as with Geelong, West Coast and GWS. Only north has 3 losses forecast - a team which has something like one win from the last six

It defies logic that the top of the ladder team, six wins in a row, will lose more games than any of the other top 7

View attachment 264891

Which particular tips do you disagree with?

And it has you finishing on 16.48 wins. Another 0.02 of a win and it's 17 wins.

And on defying logic, that's what the squiggle does. It is based on the belief that statistics are a better predictor than logic.

 

[Hobbes]

Im officially calling the squiggles bluff. On Thursday it predicted hawks to finish as minor premiers with 17 wins but that has eroded to 16 wins over the weekend
This ladder says Top of the ladder Hawthorn will have three more losses but Sydney and Adelaide will have only one more loss each. Bulldogs two more losses, as with Geelong, West Coast and GWS. Only north has 3 losses forecast - a team which has something like one win from the last six

It defies logic that the top of the ladder team, six wins in a row, will lose more games than any of the other top 7

View attachment 264891

Doesn't defy logic at all. Hawthorn can have a tougher run home than their competitors. Or the squiggle can rate them an inferior team, which isn't obvious from the win-loss but is more apparent from the percentage.

Exactly the same argument could have been used by North fans when they were 9-0 and people like me were predicting that they wouldn't get a home final.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Doesn't defy logic at all. Hawthorn can have a tougher run home than their competitors. Or the squiggle can rate them an inferior team, which isn't obvious from the win-loss but is more apparent from the percentage.

Exactly the same argument could have been used by North fans when they were 9-0 and people like me were predicting that they wouldn't get a home final.

See Hawthorn aint Nth Melbourne. For everyone following football i thought that would have been obvious

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawthorn and Adelaide are six wins in a row. History shows teams in that sort of late season form go on with it. in a way the quality of the opposition is a minor factor

I normally like the squiggle, and it was forecasting 17 wins for the Hawks on Friday, then the teams just under them fell away

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Geez Crows getting kissed down there.
Very big squiggle movement for a win over a bottom 6 team.

 

[MC_9]

View attachment 264914 Im officially calling the squiggles bluff. On Thursday it predicted hawks to finish as minor premiers with 17 wins but that has eroded to 16 wins over the weekend
This ladder says Top of the ladder Hawthorn will have three more losses but Sydney and Adelaide will have only one more loss each. Bulldogs two more losses, as with Geelong, West Coast and GWS. Only north has 3 losses forecast - a team which has something like one win from the last six

It defies logic that the top of the ladder team, six wins in a row, will lose more games than any of the other top 7

I've added my predictor result, and I haven't ruled out beating Sydney or west coast on the road

View attachment 264891View attachment 264908

I think what happened, is the squiggle rates Sydney more after their win against Geelong.

Meaning that it is now giving hawthorn even less chance of winning on Thursday. Which then dropped us below 16.5 (17) total wins for the season, and from 1st to 4th.

If we win against Sydney on Thursday it will have us finishing first and winning it again. With the season being so close, the predictor is quite reactive to each win.

 

[Gralin]

Hawthorn and Adelaide are six wins in a row. History shows teams in that sort of late season form go on with it. in a way the quality of the opposition is a minor factor

I normally like the squiggle, and it was forecasting 17 wins for the Hawks on Friday, then the teams just under them fell away

Once you get to finals the flag pole tends to be a better predictor and it has crows then Hawks as top two so that form is being noticed

 

[kirky]

Hawthorn and Adelaide are six wins in a row. History shows teams in that sort of late season form go on with it. in a way the quality of the opposition is a minor factor

I normally like the squiggle, and it was forecasting 17 wins for the Hawks on Friday, then the teams just under them fell away

Actually it is 7 in a row for Adelaide.

 

[davos44]

Geez Crows getting kissed down there.
Very big squiggle movement for a win over a bottom 6 team.

Yeah i noticed that. Maybe the away factor? Scoring 107 against the 9th best defence as well.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Hawthorn and Adelaide are six wins in a row. History shows teams in that sort of late season form go on with it. in a way the quality of the opposition is a minor factor

I normally like the squiggle, and it was forecasting 17 wins for the Hawks on Friday, then the teams just under them fell away

Crows have won 7 in a row.

 

[Del165198]

gonna need to add another column for brisbane, they're about to head off the page

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Yeah i noticed that. Maybe the away factor? Scoring 107 against the 9th best defence as well.

Squig predicted a 40 point win and you guys won by 60. Either Squiggle rates Carlton or underrates it's flag favorite Adelaide. (via flagpole)

 

[EagleShore]

I've gotta say, for a team whose deficiency was supposed to be their defence, and I thought they were suspect there, Sydney are doing incredibly well in that respect. With the Crows far above all others in attack, an Adelaide v Sydney GF would be a rip snorter.

 

[Pessimistic]

And ladder predictor using squiggle tips (I get the difference - its just I like to see which upsets mean what

 

[Pessimistic]

Both ladders agree on a top six, but disagree on geelong or bulldogs in the top 4

Interesting thing is Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong are finals hardened teams but significant numbers of rookies, who are currently doing really well but finals are two months away. Bulldogs more green but even. Crows and eagles experienced but perhaps only Adelaide can rely on home final advantage

 

[Suma Magic]

Once you get to finals the flag pole tends to be a better predictor and it has crows then Hawks as top two so that form is being noticed

Eagles are second.

 

[Gralin]

Eagles are second.

Well so they are that win bumped them above us by .4

 

[Suma Magic]

Well so they are that win bumped them above us by .4

Although once you combine the predicted finish and the flagpole we are still next to no chance (IMO).

Three away wins in a row isn't going to happen.

 

[Gralin]

Although once you combine the predicted finish and the flagpole we are still next to no chance (IMO).

Three away wins in a row isn't going to happen.

Lot of games between now and finals for the 8 to change every team is one loss away from dropping down or one win away from home finals etc.
You guys are really balanced for attack and defense, could still finish top 4, with the end of season bye who knows what's going to happen come finals

 

[cryptor]

I reckon it'll be a GF between 2 of Hawthorn, Sydney and Adelaide. All 3 seem to be still building while the other teams stagnate or drop off.

With maybe West Coast or Bulldogs to sneak in if they can make top 4.

GWS are good enough but are still too inconsistent. Seem like they'd be a sure thing to make it in 2017 if they can get the experience of a PF this year.

Geelong and North have seemingly fallen off the pace. They are lucky it is an even year though and still have time to turn things around if they can remain in touch with the top 4. The other teams threaten to put space between them though and can't see them winning from outside the 4.

 

[inbetween]

Yeah i noticed that. Maybe the away factor? Scoring 107 against the 9th best defence as well.

Nah it actually lost offensive rating. The positive movement was entirely defensive, so i suspect Adelaide vastly outperformed the squiggles predicted defensive performance. As i understand it, squiggle processes both defence and offence independently, so terms like '60-point win' have no real relevance without context.

 

[Golumless]

Geez Crows getting kissed down there.
Very big squiggle movement for a win over a bottom 6 team.

Well, we did hold a team to under 50 points. Squiggle loves those kind of performances.

 

[chazwazza]

Well, we did hold a team to under 50 points. Squiggle loves those kind of performances.

Especially when Carlton's predicted score was 72 and only scored 45. Sitting almost in the middle of the 2001,2003,2008 & 2013 flags.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Well, we did hold a team to under 50 points. Squiggle loves those kind of performances.

True true but the rain helped. Squiggle must be an indoors character.
Interesting times ahead.

 

[kerrazy]

Look at that direction them lions are going in. Its like they see how high they have to climb and are like