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Play Nice Random Chat Thread: Episode III

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In hindsight, not a bad day to get a day off
Hindsight is often a fickle thing, but definitely not in this case. Chief has been re-investing his server money into ivory back-scratchers again.
 
A friend of mine is taking his girlfriend to Turkey for her 30th on Sunday. He just rang me to ask if he should still go. I reckon they’ll be fine. Anyone in here more plugged into the current climate in Turkey? I feel like it’s just another far right leader saying stupid shit...if anyone has more insight I’d appreciate it.
 
A friend of mine is taking his girlfriend to Turkey for her 30th on Sunday. He just rang me to ask if he should still go. I reckon they’ll be fine. Anyone in here more plugged into the current climate in Turkey? I feel like it’s just another far right leader saying stupid shit...if anyone has more insight I’d appreciate it.
Sorry for the length, but I have a bit of knowledge on the region (not so much Turkey, more so Syria and the Arab-Israeli conflict).

Erdogan is not likely to do anything indirect or direct against foreigners, well except against Kurds*, a decent percentage of whom are considered terrorists in Turkey. Erdogan is a political strong man and a nationalist, with strong religious leanings, so it appears to me that he is running his mouth a bit and using it to further ground level support. If he acts harshly against Australian's, he risks a lot from an international perspective and it sets a dangerous precedent. We will be running straight to Washington if anything happens and I bet Scott Morrison already consulted the US administration on this issue before he issued any statement. In saying that, in terms of importance, Turkey is more important to the USA than Australia, as Turkey has long been used to check the progress of Russia, so Washington would want a peaceful resolution.

There is a strong theory floating around that Erdogan staged the 2016 failed military coup, in order to clean out the Turkish military that had some elements loyal to Gulen, an exiled political rival. Erdogan is a strong nationalist (which isn't new in Turkey), a religious conservative and has many autocratic tendencies. In addition to cleaning out and jailing opponents in the army, Erdogan has taken strong control of the media, violently cracked down on supporters and, as a consequence of Erdogen, Turkey is no longer considered a healthy democracy. Last year, he became head of state as well as head of the government (i.e. prime minister and president kind of thing). So, if you want an actual genuine example of fascism, then Erdogen is your man. He makes Trump look like a left-leaning pussy cat.

Have a read if you want: https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/12/15/turkey-silencing-media


As for retaliation by individuals or groups, I would suggest that your friend still go to Turkey, but to take strong precautions and link in with the Australian embassy (which is a good policy in any country you visit). The Turks, as a general rule, are generally pretty friendly, proud of their nation's heritage (sometimes too much so, i.e. denial of the Armenian genocide), has strong secular elements (at least before Erdogan), despise terrorism (which Erdogen plays up big time, especially against the Kurds) and is largely stable (not as much as it used to be).


*I really hoped that the Kurds got their own nation out of the Syrian conflict as they have fought very hard against ISIS, but it doesn't look like happening now. Maybe they will get more of a political say in the Assad regime seem the Kurds and the Syrian Army (and its allies) have largely avoided each other on the battlefield and indirectly cooperated on a few military actions. Plus, Assad is going to have politically compromise as he has relied heavily on Iranian, Palestinian-Lebanese (Hezbollah) and Christian militias to help his struggling army; not to mention the port access he is going to have to give up to the Russians in the long-term.
 
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A friend of mine is taking his girlfriend to Turkey for her 30th on Sunday. He just rang me to ask if he should still go. I reckon they’ll be fine. Anyone in here more plugged into the current climate in Turkey? I feel like it’s just another far right leader saying stupid shit...if anyone has more insight I’d appreciate it.

Elections in Turkey on 31st. Could be a bit of electioneering for that. Sound tough for some votes.
 
Elections in Turkey on 31st. Could be a bit of electioneering for that. Sound tough for some votes.
Agreed, but I doubt he will lose political power anyway.
 
really hoped that the Kurds got their own nation out of the Syrian conflict as they have fought very hard against ISIS, but it doesn't look like happening now.

Kurds are going to end up like the Hmong and Montanards, forsaken at the end
 
Kurds are going to end up like the Hmong and Montanards, forsaken at the end
Their only hope is a possible power sharing arrangement with Assad, as unlikely as it is.
 
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