Realistic expectations from 2013 onwards?

[MaddAdam]

Absolutely its pretty embarrassing that we have a ground in Melbourne that our supporters refuse to go to. It's hardly surprising though, we haven't won a game there in years we get treated like second class citizens when we do go and it's a difficult place to get to for families in terms of driving and parking etc. Personally I go to every game in Melbourne but I can't stand that place. Especially when the roof is closed and it feels like an indoor sporting centre.

So yeah winning their should be a goal but then winning every game should be a goal, like I said we get two shots there this year, the bulldogs game is the 'realistic' one.

Being an inner city hipster flog I just walk from my hipster flog apartment which is like five streets away.

Anyway, the point is that the players don't have to drive their families there, and having the roof closed should make it easier for them.

My point was just as the fans don't turn up there, it feels like the players never do either. As Freo showed, you can turn it around in a season, though having Lyon - probably the master coach of that ground - helped.

Put it this way, it isn't the players alone.

 

[LBJ6]

Odd thread for you to be posting in considering you think we'll come last.

The AFL will step in at the end of the year, and rightly so.

 

[RandB]

Put it this way, it isn't the players alone.

Thankfully we have a coach now who wouldn't buy this on any level.

 

[Bluelegs]

My point was just as the fans don't turn up there, it feels like the players never do either.

I'm not quite sure about that. We had Freo for three quarters this year at etihad despite them being a superior side, but injuries throughout the match and a lack of forward structure killed us in the final term.

Obviously not a substitute for a win but the players should be disciplined enough that their business is to do with how they play, not where they play.

 

[Simba Moyo]

Realistically, I see you guys being able to snatch 6/7 games for 2013 for Neeld has started to assemble a team which wants to build it will still take a bit more time to develop his style in to full effect. I definitely see you guys in a similar position to the Lions this year, as we only managed 4 wins last season but racked up 10 by the end of 2012. Just like how you guys beat the Dons in round 10 (and us to the Eagles) it shows to never underestimate a side.

I must say I do have a soft spot for the MFC and can't wait to see our battles over the coming seasons. In 2016 you will have the foundations of a very strong side and making regular finals appearances for thereon after. You guys have been through a very raw deal over the past few seasons, but with guys like Toumpas, Viney and Hogan the future is looking pretty bright in Demonland. Those three are scary enough on paper but give them pitchforks and no wonder you're giving the opposition a reason to be intimidated!

 

[tasmanlvr]

I'm watching the first GWS game again, and what I saw in that second quarter from Sylvia in that game I want to see replicated in a whole season. He really began to show a good run of form from that second quarter to the end of the season. We have GWS, Gold Coast early, in those games plenty of players get a chance to play themselves into form.

 

[Bluelegs]

I'm watching the first GWS game again, and what I saw in that second quarter from Sylvia in that game I want to see replicated in a whole season. He really began to show a good run of form from that second quarter to the end of the season. We have GWS, Gold Coast early, in those games plenty of players get a chance to play themselves into form.

If you can bear to watch it check out how he played against Adelaide this year. That was a game where he really showed something in a game where we had no hope.

 

[tasmanlvr]

If you can bear to watch it check out how he played against Adelaide this year. That was a game where he really showed something in a game where we had no hope.

Yeah I remember that one. Having gone to that game that really was one of his standout performances.

 

[youngbear]

With our fixtue, we could win 10; and that's being optimistic. 7-9 wins next year (GWS, GC & WB providing 6). Then, when Neeld's squad gels I reckon we'll shoot up quick.

 

[Tulip]

With our fixtue, we could win 10; and that's being optimistic. 7-9 wins next year (GWS, GC & WB providing 6). Then, when Neeld's squad gels I reckon we'll shoot up quick.

I'd be surprised if we won 5 of those, hardly all gimmes.

 

[Ando727]

With our fixtue, we could win 10; and that's being optimistic. 7-9 wins next year (GWS, GC & WB providing 6). Then, when Neeld's squad gels I reckon we'll shoot up quick.

Bulldogs had us easily covered last year. I don't that's a gimme. Also, GC are building now, just as we are. It's a danger game - especially away.

 

[syl]

How are people feeling now? I want 8 wins, but mainly, I want no floggings over 12 goals...

 

[saj_21]

How are people feeling now? I want 8 wins, but mainly, I want no floggings over 12 goals...

Agreed on 8 wins, a year similar to Richmonds (10 wins for us might be stretching it) but there competitiveness this year was super and something we should strive for, i think they only lost one game over 23 points which was round 1 vs carlton.

 

[Bosk]

When I look at Melbourne's current list I see a huge number of players with great potential and a team that I expect to see playing finals for many years once it matures.

Unfortunately the other thing that strikes me is just how many grossly inexperienced kids are in Melbourne's best 22 right now. That and what I perceive to be a lack of on-field leadership from the club's crop of veteran players.

For those reasons I think next year is going to be another tough year for Mark Neeld. He's done a big cleanout over the summer and brought in a fair amount of mature age talent which I think was every bit the right thing to do, but it's going to take some time for all these new guys (along with the guys you snagged from the draft) to master his gameplan. I think Melbourne supporters have every right to expect significant improvement next year, but that improvement might not actually show in the win/loss columns as much as you might like.

Just compare Hawthorn's list to Melbourne's right now and you'll see what I'm talking about - at Hawthorn the bulk of the side has played 100 or 150 plus games and the team is extremely settled. There's only a handful of new blokes and even most of them have been in the system for a couple of years. At Melbourne it's the complete opposite, mostly kids with a few veterans here and there and the list as a whole has a very 'thrown together' look about it. This is especially bad for defenses, who benefit hugely from the talls having played with each other for a long time to develop synergy & cohesion.

Sorry to come across as negative. As I said earlier there is huge upside in Melbourne's list, absolutely no shortage of potential. But yeah I strongly encourage Dees fans not to demand that Neeld extract that potential within a year or two because I don't think it's possible. Heck with so much recent list turnover it's even going to take him a season or so to figure out how to best utilize the players he has.
If I were a Demons fan I wouldn't take so much notice of the wins & losses next year as I would the way the team goes about it - are the youngsters developing more consistency? Are they able to run out games better? Is the team as a whole doing a better job of keeping games tight and preventing their opponents from getting a run on? Are the players dropping their heads in big losses less? Is the side improving at applying physical pressure?

 

[SPC 98]

Probably 3rd last...

 

[Tulip]

6 wins.

 

[PureFooty]

If we get beat by 10 goals in round 1 I'll be drinking till the off season Wouldn't mind a win at Etihad, although we convincingly beat the dockers hadnt a couple of players got injured

 

[Super Demon]

Eight wins in 2013 would see me satisfied with a fair bit of improvement being evident.

That being said:

10 to 12 wins might even be possible if everything goes our way given the fixture that we have been given.

Next year should set us up for some sustained finals action, starting in 2014.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

25 wins?

 

[Super Demon]

25 wins?

 

[Eth]

Next year should set us up for some sustained finals action, starting in 2014.

Haven't we been thinking this for five years?

Regardless, I'll go with seven wins. Not particularly thumping anybody as GWS and GC, being our best chances at points, are on the rise, but nothing embarrassing with a fitter and more AFL standard team.

And many more mentions of the word Moneyball by the Herald Sun when we hit a little bit of form.

 

[jhong]

I have no expectations for next season in that i think the fitness to run out games is where we really need to improve. The new older recruits will hopefully set a training benchmark for the kids , and i think everyone at the club learnt a lot following last seasons pre-season. The players will have a fair idea of what to expect this pre-season too , so for me its give the team time to settle , a lot can happen between now and round 1.

 

[Djcjdees]

Haven't we been thinking this for five years?

Regardless, I'll go with seven wins. Not particularly thumping anybody as GWS and GC, being our best chances at points, are on the rise, but nothing embarrassing with a fitter and more AFL standard team.

And many more mentions of the word Moneyball by the Herald Sun when we hit a little bit of form.

Any use of the word 'Moneyball' would be pretty loose use I think. Moneyball was all about using statistics to decide to pick players that had been overlooked by conventional 'wisdom.' As these players had been overlooked, they were underpriced.

We haven't really done any of that. We paid fair prices for Mitch and Dawes, recycled ageing players and drafted youngsters which every team does every year. None of that seems particularly based on statistics to me, it was more filling holes that we'd identified within the team. This is another contrast to moneyball. They specifically did not want to fill gaps (left by departing players) because they knew they wouldn't be able to.

Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed the fact we have finally had and stuck to a plan in the off season, but calling it a 'moneyball' strategy just shows that the journo didn't either see the movie, read the book, or understand either of them

 

[Eth]

Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed the fact we have finally had and stuck to a plan in the off season, but calling it a 'moneyball' strategy just shows that the journo didn't either see the movie, read the book, or understand either of them

They'd be calling it by its actual name of sabermetrics if they did.

 

[LouisCK]

You have to remember baseball is a team sport in name only, its far more individualist than any other conventional 'team' sport.

The advanced statistical metrices in AFL exist, but they're closely guarded by the clubs. The standard stats we see relating to player performance simply aren't comprehensive enough for us to really have this discussion.

There are tonnes of players who help their team in spite of poor conventional stats.

If a guy like, just as an example, Darren Glass, had a 5 possession game with nothing particularly impressive going on, managed to hold Buddy Franklin to zero possessions, he'd have a terrible Champion Data score, but would have been lauded for his efforts by anyone paying attention to the actual game.