Discussion Remaining Fixture

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Diehard Saint said:
Making the 8 not being seen as a successful year?
You’re kidding, right?
Believe me, if we make finals after 9 years in the wilderness it will be an unbelievably successful year - even if we get booted out first week.

Some way off the top 5?
Well duh! We’re coming from 14th and a percentage in the 80s. (Saying that, we did beat Port and the Tigers and have a very close loss against the Lions.)

We’ll be making up the numbers?
Well, of course we will be - did you expect to jump straight into top 4? You have to start somewhere.

As for the players - well there’s always work to do on a list, but we’re a work in progress and no doubt that will continue this off season.
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As of right now we are in the same position or maybe one game ahead of 2016.
 
Ricmel said:
Be good to make it and give the players the experience but let's face it, we are some way off the pace of the top 5 teams. We'll be making up numbers. I hope making the 8 would not be seen by the club as a successful year. We will go into summer with question marks over Ross, Lonie, Kent, Hind, Geary, Dunstan, Kent, Phillips.
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Of course making the 8 would be seen as a successful year.

As for those guys you've named, every club around us would be in a similar boat having question marks over their fringe players.
 
SaintsSeptember said:
As of right now we are in the same position or maybe one game ahead of 2016.
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Yep. Off the back of the aging Roo and Joey, with not much talent behind them.
Our team is so different now as to be unrecognisable - I don’t have to list the young talent coming through as opposed to the GOP Newnes, Weller, Hickey etc etc we had in the senior team in those days.

2016 was the death throes, 2020 is the rebirth.
 
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Should be barracking for these results from now until next Friday night;

Saturday, September 12th
GWS Giants v Melbourne - Gabba

Sunday, September 13th
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs - Adelaide Oval

Monday, September 14th
Collingwood v Gold Coast - Gabba


Most important of the those three will be the Saturday & Sunday games. If those two results go our way we have all but qualified.

Thinking behind needing the Giants to win instead of the Dees is that if the Dees lose, they won't be able to catch us. If they win, then they close the 5% gap we have over them and will play Essendon next week, given the Bombers horrible form I can see them winning that - which would've put them above us if they win both and we lose on Friday night.

We hold an 11.1% buffer on the Bulldogs, which works out to be 107 points. I know in low scoring games that changes but this is just gives an idea of how much they would need to claw back in the final round to go past us. I can't really see that happening. They'd have to thrash Fremantle and we'd equally need to be well beaten by GWS. Our average losing margin this year is 19 points. Dogs average winning margin is 29 points. So it'd take something out of the ordinary.
 
George said:
Should be barracking for these results from now until next Friday night;

Saturday, September 12th
GWS Giants v Melbourne - Gabba

Sunday, September 13th
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs - Adelaide Oval

Monday, September 14th
Collingwood v Gold Coast - Gabba


Most important of the those three will be the Saturday & Sunday games. If those two results go our way we have all but qualified.

Thinking behind needing the Giants to win instead of the Dees is that if the Dees lose, they won't be able to catch us. If they win, then they close the 5% gap we have over them and will play Essendon next week, given the Bombers horrible form I can see them winning that - which would've put them above us if they win both and we lose on Friday night.

We hold an 11.1% buffer on the Bulldogs, which works out to be 107 points. I know in low scoring games that changes but this is just gives an idea of how much they would need to claw back in the final round to go past us. I can't really see that happening. They'd have to thrash Fremantle and we'd equally need to be well beaten by GWS. Our average losing margin this year is 19 points. Dogs average winning margin is 29 points. So it'd take something out of the ordinary.
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I still think Melbourne winning is better for us. If we win against GWS then other results don’t matter anyway. If we lose, then we need results to go our way. In this scenario, GWS would be on 40 points if they beat Melbourne and us. Collingwood are only one win from getting to 38 so you’d think they probably get there. If the dogs did win both, they’d be on 40 and we’d be in strife. Whereas if GWS lose to Melbourne, we are then a chance to stay ahead of both them and Melbourne. GWS wouldn’t catch us on percentage even with a win against us, if they lose to Melbourne. A close win for Melbourne is our best bet there I reckon.
 
Ducky Tie said:
I still think Melbourne winning is better for us. If we win against GWS then other results don’t matter anyway. If we lose, then we need results to go our way. In this scenario, GWS would be on 40 points if they beat Melbourne and us. Collingwood are only one win from getting to 38 so you’d think they probably get there. If the dogs did win both, they’d be on 40 and we’d be in strife. Whereas if GWS lose to Melbourne, we are then a chance to stay ahead of both them and Melbourne. GWS wouldn’t catch us on percentage even with a win against us, if they lose to Melbourne. A close win for Melbourne is our best bet there I reckon.
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Yes but if that all happens and Melbourne beat Essendon next week we are out. I am basing all this off of us losing on Friday night. Of course none of it will matter if we win but in the case that we don't, then we'd need the above.

Having a team already in the eight beat a team outside the eight is better for us IMO.

If the Giants win all it leaves left is the Dogs in 9th as the only side that can make it in. And if they lose against Hawthorn on Sunday they'll need to make up 11% in the final round to catch us.
 
George said:
Yes but if that all happens and Melbourne beat Essendon next week we are out. I am basing all this off of us losing on Friday night. Of course none of it will matter if we win but in the case that we don't, then we'd need the above.

Having a team already in the eight beat a team outside the eight is better for us IMO.

If the Giants win all it leaves left is the Dogs in 9th as the only side that can make it in. And if they lose against Hawthorn on Sunday they'll need to make up 11% in the final round to catch us.
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On the assumption that we lose next week, if GWS win against Melbourne, we will definitely finish above Melbourne and will definitely finish below GWS. If Melbourne win tomorrow, we will definitely finish above GWS (they won't catch 10% against us next week) and maybe above Melbourne. If the dogs come out and lose on Sunday (or next week), then it fixes our issue either way. If dogs lose, then we finish ahead of them, and ahead of the loser of dees/gws. If dogs win both, the only way we make it is if Pies lose both or if Dees win tomorrow. They aren't guaranteed to catch us on % with two wins.
 
Ducky Tie said:
On the assumption that we lose next week, if GWS win against Melbourne, we will definitely finish above Melbourne and will definitely finish below GWS. If Melbourne win tomorrow, we will definitely finish above GWS (they won't catch 10% against us next week) and maybe above Melbourne. If the dogs come out and lose on Sunday (or next week), then it fixes our issue either way. If dogs lose, then we finish ahead of them, and ahead of the loser of dees/gws. If dogs win both, the only way we make it is if Pies lose both or if Dees win tomorrow. They aren't guaranteed to catch us on % with two wins.
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Would it matter where we finish as long as we are in?
 
I am a great believer that you don't win a premiership 'coming from nowhere' so that is why it is so important to play a final this year regardless of wether we are making up the numbers or not.

Since 2008 only one team has come from outside the Eight to win the premiership. Richmond 2017 having finished 13th the year before. However they had played in 4/6 final series finishing 5th and losing to NM in 2015, 8th and losing to Port Adel in 2014 and 5th and famously losing to Carlton who only got in there because of the Essendon sanctions in 2014.

Collingwood played in the GF in 2018 having missed the finals on the previous 4 occasions and WCE made the GF in 2015 having missed the previous two finals series but neither team won the premiership it in those years.

The other two standout 'come from nowhere' premiership wins are the Bulldogs in 2016 but that was their 2nd finals series in a row although they had missed at least the 4 prior to that. And Hawthorn in 2008 but again they had played in the finals the previous year and 2/6 previous final series. Both these premierships are genuine 'come from nowhere' in terms of previous finals participation yet on both occasions they had finals experience from the previous year.

No one needs to be reminded our finals participation currently stands at 0/8. We are miles off any team that has played in a GF in the past 12 years. We need to get back to playing finals ASAP.

Here's the full stats for the two GF teams since 2008. The first figure is how many finals series they had played in a row and the second ratio how many finals series they'd played in out of the previous 6 including the one when they made the GF. So in 2019 Rich had played 3 finals series in a row and 5 out the 6 incl 2019.

2019 Rich 3, 5/6
2019 GWS 4, 4/6

2018 WCE 4, 4/6
2018 Coll 1, 2/6

2017 Rich 1, 4/6
2017 Adel 3, 4/6

2016 WB 2, 2/6
2016 Syd 7, 6/6

2015 Haw 6, 6/6
2015 WCE 1, 3/6

2014 Haw 5, 5/6
2014 Syd 5, 5/6

2013 Haw 4, 5/6
2013 Fre 2, 3/6

2012 Syd 3, 5/6
2012 Haw 3, 5/6

2011 Geel 5, 5/6
2011 Coll 6, 6/6

2010 Coll 5, 5/6
2010 StK 3, 5/6

2009 Geel 3, 5/6
2009 StK 2, 5/6

2008 Haw 2, 2/6
2008 Geel 2, 4/6
 
pebblesofsand said:
So how about this for a dilemma - it looks like if Hawthorn beats the Doggies we can't miss out irrespective of any other results.
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Sunday night could be a wild one on here
 

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Keg still on legs said:
Probably the best possible result for us tonight. Dees win and make up bugger all %age
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That late goal to GWS was nice, keeping them to a 0.1% gain ...

Hopefully the Bombers don't roll over and let Melbourne smash them next week (you'd think a few of the Essendon players will be playing for survival, which should help)

We really should be able to run with GWS in this sort of form, even with our own form being below our best, so I doubt they'll be ahead of us on percentage even if we go down.

Going to be interesting to see how WB-Freo goes next week - Freo are playing some decent footy. Collingwood are no certainty to win their final two games ... going to be a fascinating finish to the season.
 
Pakenhamsaint said:
We win we are in. If not we have a shitload of waiting to see if we get in or not.
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Pity Melbourne don't play before us so we know where we stand. Also if Melbourne win the Giants would know they are stuffed. But it is what it is.

Think the Dogs will beat the Hawks easy and win a closer one against Freo.
 
Big day today :moustache:
 
It looks like it will come down to percentage with Melbourne for a spot if we lose to the Giants. The thing we don't want is a blow out to the giants or Melbourne to get a big win anywhere. Essendon had better show up against them.
 
gringo2011 said:
It looks like it will come down to percentage with Melbourne for a spot if we lose to the Giants. The thing we don't want is a blow out to the giants or Melbourne to get a big win anywhere. Essendon had better show up against them.
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If you accept that Dees have to win by 45 plus to jump our percentage, there have only been 13 games out of 144 this year won by more than 45 points. Much harder to do in shortened quarters and Dees are not a big scoring team at the best of times.

All changes of course if GWS beat us by a bit.
 
Ricmel said:
If you accept that Dees have to win by 45 plus to jump our percentage, there have only been 13 games out of 144 this year won by more than 45 points. Much harder to do in shortened quarters and Dees are not a big scoring team at the best of times.

All changes of course if GWS beat us by a bit.
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Yeah, that's the one I'm more worried about. I can see them coming out breathing fire, they have been s**t but they are like a Ferrari that hasn't got out of idle. We are like HiLux with an engine knock right now. If GWS wanted too they could leave us behind in cloud of tyre smoke. We need to ram the * out of them.
 
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