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Prediction Round 11, 2025: Changes vs Kuwarna

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Even though I want him as a mid and think that's where he plays his best footy, I acknowledge it's actually easier getting him into the AFL side as a HBF.

Harley, Hewett, Graham and Hough are all pretty rusted on mids in the AFL side now, with Ryan and Brockman also going through.

Then there's Grego, Hall and Gross already as solid mid WAFL depth.

Meanwhile in the backline there's Tom Cole already on the fringe of the AFL team, whilst Duggan and Baker are concrete. Not much in the way of WAFL depth though. Johnston maybe.

I'm not entirely sure this is true .

Down back we have our captain, the guy leading our BnF, Ginbey, Maric, Cole as medium/smalls.

3 out of that 5 are locks. Cole and Maric are fringe but we have Bazzo, Allan, HJ, Grego, McCarthy all trying to squeeze in to the backline.

It's an apples to oranges comparison but McCarthy looks streets ahead compared to other guys I mentioned.
 
I know hes a long way off but lets give barnett another year, he was the best ruck prospect when we took him so he may just take a while before he starts to play at a level required.
 
Regardless of the pros and cons of various players it’s certainly nice to again to be having these discussions. And there are no 100% correct answers (except for mine 😊). Think back a couple of years and we were playing anyone who just happened to be walking past the ground.

The argy-bargy of these discussions (with an exception or two) is an enjoyable part of being a supporter. Especially in a rebuilding team.

And, as we’ve been reminded a couple of times this year … it’s only a game. FFS please don’t take it too seriously.
 

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I know hes a long way off but lets give barnett another year, he was the best ruck prospect when we took him so he may just take a while before he starts to play at a level required.

GTFO

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Spare me old man :kissingheart:, you can't be seriously running with we're playing Hutchinson so we don't need to play Bo Allan they were drafted 6 months apart so its the same thing.

I love Hutch. And I love Maric. Having both in our 22 is good for the age profile and both should be in our 22, and thank god we had the mid year pick to take them. But thats in a different category of list management and is fixing earlier failed drafts. The primary method, the actual draft, is where you get the majority of your future players. We have smashed the past 2 drafts and yet other than insta Criss Judd Harley Reid we've somehow managed to work out way to playing none of them now outside of in the sub role.

Call it bitching, fine. It actually important though because all of Hawthorn, North and Richmond made tough calls to go backwards in order to go forwards and they've all put serious amounts of games into their draftee's. We've only gone all in on the 2022 crop, and only due to a severe injury crisis. We last on the ladder and it's hurting us because now we're refusing to risk being any worse. It's short sighted weak leadership, and should be more or a concern.

Hawks are already away back up the ladder having done what was necessary. In 2-3 years when all our dead wood has finally been trimmed from the list, our 23 and 2024 draft crop are going to be 15-20 games behind the Richmond and North kids taken from the same darts. And that'll probably come back to bite us. Why wouldn't it?

Take Tyler Brockman as one example of someone we brought in to develop, why did he play more games in his 2 seasons at with the Hawks as an 18-20 yo [when they were doing this] than he has with us as a 21-23 year old? What was the point if not playing him in the 22 when its obvious how much talent he had and how much he needed games and confidence in order to get going.

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You can do this all the way down the list, what value did we get out of playing Jack Darling last year instead of Jack Williams and Archer Reid? What is the point of not getting 10-15 games into Bo Allen this year when we are heading for another spoon, instead of delaying it to next year? How much better would Clay Hall be in his second season if we'd of found 5 games for him in the back half of last year? How much better would Tyrell Dewar be this year if he'd had an extra 5 games put into him last year? What was the actual return for us from all the games put into Witherden, Rotham and Edwards- at a guess 30-40 games aggregate? And are we doing the same thing again this year, playing blokes who are going to be delisted or traded instead of getting our next crop of 200 gamers through their first 10 games as quickly as possible.

These early games matter, and we're just not prioritising them enough imo. Week to week, it looks fine on the selection table because you can always make the case that experience matters and that there will be plenty of opportunities for younger players in future years. Of course they will be regularly playing in 2026/27. They'll be a season behind where they could be though which is frustrating. Teams at the bottom need to make selection choices that might make the side objectively worse, sometimes clearly so, in order to be better for it 2-3 seasons from now. This club has so much pride in itself it seems we're just incapable of actually doing that. its an similar [or the exact same] attitude that has bought at least two of the biggest clubs on the land unstuck time and again.

Something to think about anyway. Would be very unlike our club to put a foot wrong at the best of times, but you can never be too cautious about the risks involved with drinking 20 year old bath water. [Just play the kids ffs]
Just to reply to this.

The hawks team is no comparison to ours. They went young and then immediately got wrecked and brought in a bunch of experience.

The hawks team you are lauding this week has 19 players over the age of 25. Want to guess how many of them are playing this weekend?

15.

In contrast we have 17 in total on the list and are playing 11 this week, of those a good chunk are either just 25/26 or 30+
In the next season or so we are likely to lose the vast majority of that 17. Players like Crippa, Yeo, Hunt, Petch will go. Allen is looking to already go, Gov might not get back ever again depending on the AFL.

We ARE playing the youth that we have on the list, it'll just be at the expense of other youth. Once this core group of 20-22 year olds gets to 24-25 such as the hawks list then we will be in a much stronger position. The players you are wanting us to prioritise: Gross, Johnston, Grego, Shanahan, Allan, Rawlinson, Champion, Davis (all others are playing regular games or are very fringe), are not the core group we need to be playing immediately. We have to get the guys that'll get to that 24 year old line first the most experience possible.
 
We have a few kids holding their own, once we get a few more to that level we will have an easier time bringing in more kids.
If our midfield had 4 mature guys holding their own its a lot easier to bring in 1-2 kids rotating through, when our midfield is mostly just Graham + guys aged 22 and under its a bit harder to carry extra 18 year olds who arent ready for full games.

This whole discussion is stupid
 
Even though I want him as a mid and think that's where he plays his best footy, I acknowledge it's actually easier getting him into the AFL side as a HBF.

Harley, Hewett, Graham and Hough are all pretty rusted on mids in the AFL side now, with Ryan and Brockman also going through.

Then there's Grego, Hall and Gross already as solid mid WAFL depth.

Meanwhile in the backline there's Tom Cole already on the fringe of the AFL team, whilst Duggan and Baker are concrete. Not much in the way of WAFL depth though. Johnston maybe.
Ginbey and Maric look pretty settled down back.

HJ, Grego and Dewar are all ok on the hbf as running hbf who distribute well. I wouldn’t mind see if Davis could play that role.

Agree that Allan’s best option is hbf but he can also play wing. The role of our wingers looks much better under Mini. In fact the wing and hbf are hard to differentiate in most games
 
Ginbey and Maric look pretty settled down back.

HJ, Grego and Dewar are all ok on the hbf as running hbf who distribute well. I wouldn’t mind see if Davis could play that role.

Agree that Allan’s best option is hbf but he can also play wing. The role of our wingers looks much better under Mini. In fact the wing and hbf are hard to differentiate in most games
Would rather Davis on the wing. Seems the type that can run all day.
 
Every week we choose one random opposition forward to make look like the best player in the competition. I'd prefer it not be Tex so him being out would be nice.

Fogarty being good against us and then doing nothing for a month is pretty typical anyway.
 

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The buzzards coming off a 10 point loss to Pies.
7th placed losing by 2 kicks to ladder leaders.
Suggests a tough away gig but an opportunity to see how we back up after our first win (presuming we haven't drunk too much bathwater).
 
Yes, I'm making an assumption that we draft McCarthy, but all the mail is going that way so it's not as if it is some out there take.

Well it's not an out there but it also hasn't happened yet, guy could have a season ending injury before the draft. Of course we I don’t want that to happen before anyone gets carried away.
 
Well it's not an out there but it also hasn't happened yet, guy could have a season ending injury before the draft. Of course we I don’t want that to happen before anyone gets carried away.
He's not playing this week for that reason, suppose a meteor could land on his house or something
 

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Yes, which is what we’re doing. Maric is 20. Ginbey is 20. Hewett is 20. Reid is 20. Gross is 18. Archer is 19 and has been getting games pumped into him. The ins this week are Long (20) and Dewar (21).

That’s everyone’s point, you’re the one saying they’re not kids so it doesn’t count.

Nobody in here would care if Allan played over Cole (even if I do think he’s probably not a HBF but worth it to pump games in). Everybody in here wants Gross full games over sub games.

But beyond that, we have so many kids in the side that to get others in you have to push out some of the allegedly ‘established’ ones to do so.

The KPFs are stuck behind a reigning AA and our captain, and even still JWill and Archer have played plenty. The only midfield spot up for grabs is the one Gross already can’t get, so where do Hall or Grego fit in? Bench Hewett to get games in? Bench Graham for the sake of it? End the Hough midfield minutes, closing the door for Allan again?

All of this before you wade into whether third and fourth round picks should be as AFL ready at 18 as an army of first rounders like the Tigers have.

Anyway, the locals are sick of this. We’re an incredibly young team, half of our team are 22 or under, and several times this year we’ve named the youngest team in footy. This is an observable demonstrable fact. There simply is no gripe to be had here.

Idk what to say, and it clearly won't matter you'll just find a way to disagree while bizarrely posting evidence supporting what I am saying.

Maric, Ginbey and Hewett are 20, or 3rd year, whatever you want to call it. They are all on between 30-50 games as is Long. The point I've made 1000 times to no effect is that because of inuries in 23 their draft year had a shit load of games pumped into them as 18 year olds which accelerated their development. And Gross, and more particularly Allan are getting no-where near that amount of exposure to the highest level, which will have a flow on effect to their development IF measured against the 2022 draft group- who are obviously now a core part of our 22.

What is so hard to understand about that simple fact? Why does it require half a dozen back and forwards in which you bend over backwards not to take a basic grasp of what I've said, which is entirely unremarkable and basically a value free statement of fact.

And if no-one would have a problem with Gross or Allan getting more games, why are you carrying on about me making that simple point and linking it to the fact that Ginbey, Hewett, Long and then Maric did get those games when they were the same age?

What is the hang up with drawing a distinction between the relative experience of players in the 0-10 game range and players in the 30-40and even 50 game range. There is obviously a difference. But go off and ignore the entire content of the argument because I question whether or not we should call both groups 'kids' or 'youth' or whatever. I proposed several more useful ways of categorising it such as draftee's, first contract holders, 0-25 gamers or whatever just to demarcate the point of difference but oh no, "you said a 20 year old isn't a kid and I'm so hopping mad about it I can't even." It's just weird.
 
He's not playing this week for that reason, suppose a meteor could land on his house or something

F*ck mate get the guy into cryosleep in a bomb shelter ASAP!
 
Just to reply to this.

The hawks team is no comparison to ours. They went young and then immediately got wrecked and brought in a bunch of experience.

The hawks team you are lauding this week has 19 players over the age of 25. Want to guess how many of them are playing this weekend?

15.

In contrast we have 17 in total on the list and are playing 11 this week, of those a good chunk are either just 25/26 or 30+
In the next season or so we are likely to lose the vast majority of that 17. Players like Crippa, Yeo, Hunt, Petch will go. Allen is looking to already go, Gov might not get back ever again depending on the AFL.

We ARE playing the youth that we have on the list, it'll just be at the expense of other youth. Once this core group of 20-22 year olds gets to 24-25 such as the hawks list then we will be in a much stronger position. The players you are wanting us to prioritise: Gross, Johnston, Grego, Shanahan, Allan, Rawlinson, Champion, Davis (all others are playing regular games or are very fringe), are not the core group we need to be playing immediately. We have to get the guys that'll get to that 24 year old line first the most experience possible.

More useless quibbling. Did I say we need to play every one of our 18 year olds at the same time? No. I was complaining that in fact 0 of them are playing right now [or at least starting]. I'm not even saying that both of Gross and Allan should be playing. If ONE of them played, Allan for Cole at half back or Gross for Owies [or god forbid the other guy] then that would be sufficient. I don't care about Greggo, HJ, Davis, Champion, Rawlinson or Shanahan playing the year out in the WAFL. Its seems pretty obvious to me that if we take another 2-3 first rounders this year that the likes of Long, HJ, Greggo, probably even Hall have little more than WAFL careers ahead of them. But I do think that it's just a non-negotiable for any team in the comp to invest games into the 1-2 18 year olds with the highest ceiling, at least 10 games but hopefully more like 15.

It is obvious that McQualter recognised the need to do this, and that the media are onto it as well because he's constantly asked the question on Allan and Gross. He doesn't say they aren't ready, he says its difficult. It's difficult because we are prioritising wins, so if playing Allan over Cole means a 2-3% less chance of winning the game because of Allans inexperience of fitness then we can't make that call. The irony is that if we were reigning premiers the kid we took last year with the last pick in the first round would probably have played every game. Logan Morris pick 31 2024 premiership player. Has played nearly every available game. Daniel Venebles same story 2017/18, more often than not going at 4 possessions a game. Oscar Allen 2018. As I've said 100 times already, despite being bottom of the ladder, most clubs are playing more of their first and second year players than we are. And yes, no club is playing as many of their third year players [we are playing 100% of ours] which is also unusual. And the argument coming back at me is that we can't play first and second year players because we are playing heaps of third year players. I just think its a stupid argument, as it ignored the fact that good first year players CAN play AFl football perfectly fine, and the fact we have so many 20 year olds in the team was a situation manufactured by the club having gutted the majority of the players who would be in their 5th/6th years. We shouldn't be using that situation as an excuse not to keep putting games into draftee's but it would appear a lot of you are very passionate about the fact that we should be. Which is fine, agree to disagree. But no, thats not enough instead it must be insisted that there's no difference between first and third year players and we're actually the kings of playing the kids.
 
Idk what to say, and it clearly won't matter you'll just find a way to disagree while bizarrely posting evidence supporting what I am saying.

Maric, Ginbey and Hewett are 20, or 3rd year, whatever you want to call it. They are all on between 30-50 games as is Long. The point I've made 1000 times to no effect is that because of inuries in 23 their draft year had a shit load of games pumped into them as 18 year olds which accelerated their development. And Gross, and more particularly Allan are getting no-where near that amount of exposure to the highest level, which will have a flow on effect to their development IF measured against the 2022 draft group- who are obviously now a core part of our 22.

What is so hard to understand about that simple fact? Why does it require half a dozen back and forwards in which you bend over backwards not to take a basic grasp of what I've said, which is entirely unremarkable and basically a value free statement of fact.

And if no-one would have a problem with Gross or Allan getting more games, why are you carrying on about me making that simple point and linking it to the fact that Ginbey, Hewett, Long and then Maric did get those games when they were the same age?

What is the hang up with drawing a distinction between the relative experience of players in the 0-10 game range and players in the 30-40and even 50 game range. There is obviously a difference. But go off and ignore the entire content of the argument because I question whether or not we should call both groups 'kids' or 'youth' or whatever. I proposed several more useful ways of categorising it such as draftee's, first contract holders, 0-25 gamers or whatever just to demarcate the point of difference but oh no, "you said a 20 year old isn't a kid and I'm so hopping mad about it I can't even." It's just weird.
Regardless of how many games theyve played, 20 year olds are still kids.

The fact is as you said, we had a heap of injuries which let Ginbey, Hewett, Long and Maric get extra exposure. We dont have a heap of injuries now or last year, so we can try to develop the kids properly via the wafl, and with stints in the main squad while the older kids who are ready and our mature age players carry the load.

The entire premise of your argument is dumb, you were comparing us to Richmond who have more of their 2024 crop playing, well they have no alternatives and last night they sat ALL of their first year players in the forward line. They didnt have 4-5 guys 22 or under in prime midfield roles like you seem to be wanting.

We could swap in Archer, Shanahan and Champion in for Allen, Ryan and Waterman but that would be pretty ****ing stupid.
Allan has missed a bunch of footy the last few weeks.
Gross isnt fit enough
 
Idk what to say, and it clearly won't matter you'll just find a way to disagree while bizarrely posting evidence supporting what I am saying.

Maric, Ginbey and Hewett are 20, or 3rd year, whatever you want to call it. They are all on between 30-50 games as is Long. The point I've made 1000 times to no effect is that because of inuries in 23 their draft year had a shit load of games pumped into them as 18 year olds which accelerated their development. And Gross, and more particularly Allan are getting no-where near that amount of exposure to the highest level, which will have a flow on effect to their development IF measured against the 2022 draft group- who are obviously now a core part of our 22.

What is so hard to understand about that simple fact? Why does it require half a dozen back and forwards in which you bend over backwards not to take a basic grasp of what I've said, which is entirely unremarkable and basically a value free statement of fact.

And if no-one would have a problem with Gross or Allan getting more games, why are you carrying on about me making that simple point and linking it to the fact that Ginbey, Hewett, Long and then Maric did get those games when they were the same age?

What is the hang up with drawing a distinction between the relative experience of players in the 0-10 game range and players in the 30-40and even 50 game range. There is obviously a difference. But go off and ignore the entire content of the argument because I question whether or not we should call both groups 'kids' or 'youth' or whatever. I proposed several more useful ways of categorising it such as draftee's, first contract holders, 0-25 gamers or whatever just to demarcate the point of difference but oh no, "you said a 20 year old isn't a kid and I'm so hopping mad about it I can't even." It's just weird.

The 2022 draft class played a heap of games early because of injuries. So now they’re not kids, even though they’re still barely old enough to buy alcohol.

The 2024 draft class haven’t played the same number of games because we’ve been healthier, and that’s apparently hurting their development. Because being thrown to the wolves in a terrible team has done wonders for most of our notkids.

So you’re obviously suggesting we need to start taking a hammer to the ankles of some of our older players to create more opportunities for our kids, so that they too can become notkids before their time.
 
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