dlanod
Moderator
- Sep 14, 2006
- 52,665
- 81,977
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
- Other Teams
- GWS; CCMariners; NQCowboys; Ravens
- Moderator
- #1
Date - Sunday July 12
Time - 4:40pm AEST
Venue - The Gabba
Preview by WhiteLionFeva
Our Groundhog Day
I will preface this preview by apologising for the complete absence of gifs, pics or videos and by signalling that if after our encouraging effort against Fremantle you are expecting an optimistic “they have two arms and two legs just like us” form of preview culminating in a prediction of a courageous win against the odds, you will be disappointed.
When I put up the hand to do the preview for the Lions vs Swans game I half-jokingly suggested I might just copy and paste last year’s preview. In fact, you could mount a reasonable case that apart from changing the venue and dates, the preview from any of our several recent games against the Swans would suffice. There is an awful repetitiveness not to mention predictability about these games that doesn’t bode well for this one.
The Good
First the good news – the game’s at home, admittedly it’s no Gabbatoir these days, but way more welcoming for us and threatening for them than the SCG or that place they held the Olympics at. Oh, and we beat the buggers in the pre-season at Burp’y. I suppose we can also seek solace in the fact that the Swans aren’t coming off a loss so they don’t have any added motivation (as if they needed it) to rub our collective noses in it.
The Bad
That brings us to the bad news already. Where do I start? We last beat the Swannies in 2009 when, in a rare feat these days, they finished outside the eight. We beat them twice that year in fact and it seems we have been paying for it ever since. The major difference is that back in 2009 the Swans were struggling and we made the finals on the back of a champion midfielder named Black and some decent firepower in the form of Brown (78 goals) and Bradshaw (50).
Secondly, we are coming off the worst road trip in the competition, an energy sapping (albeit highly meritorious) loss in the wet and a seven day turnaround. The Swans have repaired their dented morale following a loss to the Tigers at home with a hard fought win over Port, also at home, and have the luxury of a ten day break followed by a short commute north. You have to love this equalisation thingo the AFL have going.
I can’t go on without mentioning the Swan’s two major ‘ins’ this week – Buddy, and his co-accused, Tippo. If either act was careless then all my years of legal practice have been entirely in vain. The consolation is that Mr Tippett has introduced a new skill to the game – at least so says the match review panel – legitimately spoiling with your elbow while not looking at the ball. Not easy to master I suspect. Could explain why he couldn’t manage to make contact (with the ball). Not that the absence of the Twin Towers would have ensured a Lions win (the last time they were both missing in a regular season game they flogged us by 79 points!) but at least it would have given us more of a fighting chance.
But I digress.
Back to the bad news. You could say our overall record against the Swans is not too bad on paper given how long we have been peering up at them on the ladder – 11 wins to the Lions, 19 to the Swans and 1 draw. But the last five years’ results read like a post mortem. Since 2009, 7 games for 0 wins and an average losing margin of 52 points, culminating in that 79 point flogging at the Gabba last time around. The closest of those losses was a 20 point defeat at the SCG when Bradshaw kicked 6. Oh for a goal kicking forward of that ilk now.
The Ugly
Ah yes, our injuries. Well it’s gone beyond a joke. It doesn’t seem that long ago that we were crossing our fingers and toes and hoping for a better selection of Bupa recovery reports this year. Well that worked didn’t it? And when we get injuries we really get them. None of this one week here, two weeks there. Nah, we go the whole hog – ‘season’, ‘indefinite’, ‘TBC’, ‘career ending’ as well as injuries to our captain and numerous other senior players. I know some outsiders will say it’s a lame excuse but when you’re struggling like we are to get back up the ladder it’s hard not to speculate about what could have been but for our horrendous run with injuries – two years running.
And of course Steph isn’t playing – he wasn’t careless enough apparently. And the young guys we thought would get more valuable time on the field this year, as a consolation, haven’t – Close, Freeman, Paine in particular and to a lesser extent C Beams, Harwood and Mayes. The absence due to injury of experienced types like Merrett, Staker, McGuane, Maguire and West has also hurt more than we can possibly measure. Not to mention missing our skipper for large slabs of the season and arguably our best player in Pearce Hanley for almost all of it. It has forced us to play rookies who are probably not yet ready. The worry is that we have been in that scenario at least two years in a row now and the possibly adverse effect that might have on the long-term development of our young players.
At least the news this week seems more promising, although the extent of Zorko’s apparent injury isn’t yet known so he may be a doubtful starter against the Swans. (The Lions’ website reports no fresh injuries, but it’s wait and see at this stage). His possible absence would be partly offset by the likely return of Big Sauce and the possible selection of Rocky and Hanley.
By the way, after their win against the Power John Longmire proudly proclaimed that the Swans had fielded 9 players with less than 60 games experience (interesting choice of number there). In the Freo game we had 11 if you include Lester who has played 61 and another 3 players who have played less than 75 games. Puts his youth argument into perspective.
The Swans injury list by comparison to ours is, well, almost non-existent. Pre the game just gone they had 10 on the missing in action list, not including the two suspensions (did I mention those already?). Five of the ten were listed as ‘test’ and three as ‘1-2 weeks’. That leaves two ‘indefinites’ – Alex Johnson and Sam Naismith – well with all due respect to the two players concerned – who the hell?? Only joking, I know Johnson can play a bit but you get my point. And in case it be suggested I am not being objective (which is entirely possible), I checked their list a few weeks ago when looking ahead to this preview and the numbers were roughly the same or better than they are now. From the Port game the Swans will likely lose Rohan with a hamstring but with their 10 day break you would think Ted Richards is odds on to play and several of the other short term injured will no doubt become available.
The Really Ugly
You knew I’d eventually get to the game preview. Statistically there is no good reason to argue for a win here. The Swans are sitting a game clear in third with 10 wins, we are bottom with two wins and the lowest points for and highest points against in the league. We have half a team they have almost an entire list. They are ranked in the top six in almost all the relevant statistics including possessions and tackles. Despite its collective age their defence is the third most miserly in the league behind Fremantle and West Coast. The Swans have had a star midfield for as long as I can remember and this team is no different. Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker are some of the best going around and in line for AA honours this year. Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh are not far behind and then throw in young guns in Tom Mitchell and Isaac Heeney and the likes of McGlynn, Bird, Lloyd and Rohan and you can see the depth. That Zak Jones can play too. And we thought we had a reasonable midfield this year.
It isn’t all roses for them and gloom for us, just mostly. Until the suspension of Steph Martin I was anticipating we would have a sizeable edge in the ruck with Mike Pyke’s form having dropped off significantly from previous years and their other options being essentially rookies (Derickx is 27 but still a novice at this level). Pyke has been racking up the taps this year (ave 33) but has done very little else and Steph would have eaten him up and spat him out around the ground. Nankervis should hold his spot after a reasonable debut against Port so Tippett won’t need to be used as a backup and as we know only too well the use of backup ruckmen usually exposes deficiencies in other areas. Leuey’s excellent game against the Dockers has me thinking he can take the honours against Pyke, but the test will be whether he can back up after his marathon 51 hit-out effort against Sandilands. Any of Bourke, Andrews or Merrett are likely to struggle against the sheer size of Nankervis.
The Swans’ defence, although miserly, can be exposed by pace and forward pressure which are areas that Lewy, Zorks (if he is played forward), Christensen and Green can excel at when on their game. Three of the Swans’ oldest players are in the back half (Shaw, Richards and Grundy). Shaw’s pace has dropped markedly this year and the other two are slow, verging on pedestrian. The Swans’ backline have also shown a tendency to turn the ball over, with Shaw, Smith and Rampe stand outs in that regard against Port and while Reid has been re-born as a tall defender this year, his disposal under pressure can be suspect. The Swans’ lack of run out of the backline is a major reason Jetta has been played off half back and an aspect of their game that has been sadly missing since Malceski’s defection.
We should be able to match the Swans for pace across the park. Rohan will probably be missing, Jetta has speed to burn and Lloyd is swift but the rest of their midfield are not especially quick. Towers is reputedly quick but is liable to lose his feet and had an average game against Port so he could be one to make way this week. To fully exploit our pace advantage both Bewick and Mayes must start for mine. The pair are agile rather than quick but can give us the run and carry that is critical to Leppa’s game plan, and Mayes in particular adds another goal scoring option. He is not sub material for mine.
Our tackling pressure was elite against Freo in the wet and the same and more will be needed this week. The Swans love nothing more than to turn a game into a scrap so we need to get it on our terms by extracting the ball and moving it swiftly by hand to our outside runners. I am not a great fan of tagging but we may have to make an exception this week with Jetta. Jetta has more score involvements than any other Swan so he is damaging and worth special attention. If we go down that track, Bewick would be a fair chance for the role and frankly he needs something to do because he can lose focus otherwise.
But it’s likely the Swans’ potency in front of goals and our corresponding lack of scoring power will be what ultimately determines the outcome of this game. Even with Merrett’s expected return to defence, and as manfully as Clarke, Gardiner and Beasley have battled, I just can’t see us holding Buddy, Tippett, Goodes and Co to a losing score let alone scoring enough ourselves to be in front come the final siren. Franklin and Tippett have contributed approximately 40% of the Swans’ goals this year, which means not only are they an obvious handful but that the Swans have plenty of other avenues to goal even if we do manage to keep their talls to respectable numbers. Parker, Kennedy and Jack in particular are potent around goals, although this year perhaps not at the level of previous seasons. Midfielders contributing on the scoreboard is an area the Lions have traditionally struggled with which compounds our lack of key forwards. Beams, Robinson and Christensen have gone some way to remedying the deficiency this year, but more will be needed from Rich, Redden, Bewick, Lester and others in the midfield if we are to kick a winning score.
Of course, you can go a long way towards quelling the influence of key forwards by restricting the quantity or quality of supply. With a fully fit and firing Rocky and Hanley added to the mix I could see us doing that, but not otherwise. Even if Rocky and Hanley play, neither will be at 100%. Aish is one whose place would be in jeopardy after a less than convincing performance against Freo. Beasley looks promising but he or Bourke may also have to give way if Merrett in particular returns.
History tells us that at least one Swan will use this opportunity to have a season best performance. Reid has done it in the past (6 goals v us in 2012 is still his career best haul) and Goodes and McVeigh also seem to save their best efforts for us. In the past, we even made Lewis Roberts-Thompson look good. Let’s hope no-one gets let off the chain this week.
The Swans’ sometimes nervous backline and slowish midfield are areas we can exploit but they will be balanced to a degree by our propensity to turn the ball over in dangerous positions and our second half fadeouts. Against Freo the fadeout was confined to the final quarter but when it came it was just as pronounced and damaging - 7 goals to one - as those that had preceded it. If we can bring our running, overlapping, pressuring game to the table as we did against the Dockers then we have a chance to match the Swans but the question is how long we can sustain it. All things considered, I think probably not long enough.
Swans by 30.
Time - 4:40pm AEST
Venue - The Gabba
Preview by WhiteLionFeva
Our Groundhog Day
I will preface this preview by apologising for the complete absence of gifs, pics or videos and by signalling that if after our encouraging effort against Fremantle you are expecting an optimistic “they have two arms and two legs just like us” form of preview culminating in a prediction of a courageous win against the odds, you will be disappointed.
When I put up the hand to do the preview for the Lions vs Swans game I half-jokingly suggested I might just copy and paste last year’s preview. In fact, you could mount a reasonable case that apart from changing the venue and dates, the preview from any of our several recent games against the Swans would suffice. There is an awful repetitiveness not to mention predictability about these games that doesn’t bode well for this one.
The Good
First the good news – the game’s at home, admittedly it’s no Gabbatoir these days, but way more welcoming for us and threatening for them than the SCG or that place they held the Olympics at. Oh, and we beat the buggers in the pre-season at Burp’y. I suppose we can also seek solace in the fact that the Swans aren’t coming off a loss so they don’t have any added motivation (as if they needed it) to rub our collective noses in it.
The Bad
That brings us to the bad news already. Where do I start? We last beat the Swannies in 2009 when, in a rare feat these days, they finished outside the eight. We beat them twice that year in fact and it seems we have been paying for it ever since. The major difference is that back in 2009 the Swans were struggling and we made the finals on the back of a champion midfielder named Black and some decent firepower in the form of Brown (78 goals) and Bradshaw (50).
Secondly, we are coming off the worst road trip in the competition, an energy sapping (albeit highly meritorious) loss in the wet and a seven day turnaround. The Swans have repaired their dented morale following a loss to the Tigers at home with a hard fought win over Port, also at home, and have the luxury of a ten day break followed by a short commute north. You have to love this equalisation thingo the AFL have going.
I can’t go on without mentioning the Swan’s two major ‘ins’ this week – Buddy, and his co-accused, Tippo. If either act was careless then all my years of legal practice have been entirely in vain. The consolation is that Mr Tippett has introduced a new skill to the game – at least so says the match review panel – legitimately spoiling with your elbow while not looking at the ball. Not easy to master I suspect. Could explain why he couldn’t manage to make contact (with the ball). Not that the absence of the Twin Towers would have ensured a Lions win (the last time they were both missing in a regular season game they flogged us by 79 points!) but at least it would have given us more of a fighting chance.
But I digress.
Back to the bad news. You could say our overall record against the Swans is not too bad on paper given how long we have been peering up at them on the ladder – 11 wins to the Lions, 19 to the Swans and 1 draw. But the last five years’ results read like a post mortem. Since 2009, 7 games for 0 wins and an average losing margin of 52 points, culminating in that 79 point flogging at the Gabba last time around. The closest of those losses was a 20 point defeat at the SCG when Bradshaw kicked 6. Oh for a goal kicking forward of that ilk now.
The Ugly
Ah yes, our injuries. Well it’s gone beyond a joke. It doesn’t seem that long ago that we were crossing our fingers and toes and hoping for a better selection of Bupa recovery reports this year. Well that worked didn’t it? And when we get injuries we really get them. None of this one week here, two weeks there. Nah, we go the whole hog – ‘season’, ‘indefinite’, ‘TBC’, ‘career ending’ as well as injuries to our captain and numerous other senior players. I know some outsiders will say it’s a lame excuse but when you’re struggling like we are to get back up the ladder it’s hard not to speculate about what could have been but for our horrendous run with injuries – two years running.
And of course Steph isn’t playing – he wasn’t careless enough apparently. And the young guys we thought would get more valuable time on the field this year, as a consolation, haven’t – Close, Freeman, Paine in particular and to a lesser extent C Beams, Harwood and Mayes. The absence due to injury of experienced types like Merrett, Staker, McGuane, Maguire and West has also hurt more than we can possibly measure. Not to mention missing our skipper for large slabs of the season and arguably our best player in Pearce Hanley for almost all of it. It has forced us to play rookies who are probably not yet ready. The worry is that we have been in that scenario at least two years in a row now and the possibly adverse effect that might have on the long-term development of our young players.
At least the news this week seems more promising, although the extent of Zorko’s apparent injury isn’t yet known so he may be a doubtful starter against the Swans. (The Lions’ website reports no fresh injuries, but it’s wait and see at this stage). His possible absence would be partly offset by the likely return of Big Sauce and the possible selection of Rocky and Hanley.
By the way, after their win against the Power John Longmire proudly proclaimed that the Swans had fielded 9 players with less than 60 games experience (interesting choice of number there). In the Freo game we had 11 if you include Lester who has played 61 and another 3 players who have played less than 75 games. Puts his youth argument into perspective.
The Swans injury list by comparison to ours is, well, almost non-existent. Pre the game just gone they had 10 on the missing in action list, not including the two suspensions (did I mention those already?). Five of the ten were listed as ‘test’ and three as ‘1-2 weeks’. That leaves two ‘indefinites’ – Alex Johnson and Sam Naismith – well with all due respect to the two players concerned – who the hell?? Only joking, I know Johnson can play a bit but you get my point. And in case it be suggested I am not being objective (which is entirely possible), I checked their list a few weeks ago when looking ahead to this preview and the numbers were roughly the same or better than they are now. From the Port game the Swans will likely lose Rohan with a hamstring but with their 10 day break you would think Ted Richards is odds on to play and several of the other short term injured will no doubt become available.
The Really Ugly
You knew I’d eventually get to the game preview. Statistically there is no good reason to argue for a win here. The Swans are sitting a game clear in third with 10 wins, we are bottom with two wins and the lowest points for and highest points against in the league. We have half a team they have almost an entire list. They are ranked in the top six in almost all the relevant statistics including possessions and tackles. Despite its collective age their defence is the third most miserly in the league behind Fremantle and West Coast. The Swans have had a star midfield for as long as I can remember and this team is no different. Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker are some of the best going around and in line for AA honours this year. Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh are not far behind and then throw in young guns in Tom Mitchell and Isaac Heeney and the likes of McGlynn, Bird, Lloyd and Rohan and you can see the depth. That Zak Jones can play too. And we thought we had a reasonable midfield this year.
It isn’t all roses for them and gloom for us, just mostly. Until the suspension of Steph Martin I was anticipating we would have a sizeable edge in the ruck with Mike Pyke’s form having dropped off significantly from previous years and their other options being essentially rookies (Derickx is 27 but still a novice at this level). Pyke has been racking up the taps this year (ave 33) but has done very little else and Steph would have eaten him up and spat him out around the ground. Nankervis should hold his spot after a reasonable debut against Port so Tippett won’t need to be used as a backup and as we know only too well the use of backup ruckmen usually exposes deficiencies in other areas. Leuey’s excellent game against the Dockers has me thinking he can take the honours against Pyke, but the test will be whether he can back up after his marathon 51 hit-out effort against Sandilands. Any of Bourke, Andrews or Merrett are likely to struggle against the sheer size of Nankervis.
The Swans’ defence, although miserly, can be exposed by pace and forward pressure which are areas that Lewy, Zorks (if he is played forward), Christensen and Green can excel at when on their game. Three of the Swans’ oldest players are in the back half (Shaw, Richards and Grundy). Shaw’s pace has dropped markedly this year and the other two are slow, verging on pedestrian. The Swans’ backline have also shown a tendency to turn the ball over, with Shaw, Smith and Rampe stand outs in that regard against Port and while Reid has been re-born as a tall defender this year, his disposal under pressure can be suspect. The Swans’ lack of run out of the backline is a major reason Jetta has been played off half back and an aspect of their game that has been sadly missing since Malceski’s defection.
We should be able to match the Swans for pace across the park. Rohan will probably be missing, Jetta has speed to burn and Lloyd is swift but the rest of their midfield are not especially quick. Towers is reputedly quick but is liable to lose his feet and had an average game against Port so he could be one to make way this week. To fully exploit our pace advantage both Bewick and Mayes must start for mine. The pair are agile rather than quick but can give us the run and carry that is critical to Leppa’s game plan, and Mayes in particular adds another goal scoring option. He is not sub material for mine.
Our tackling pressure was elite against Freo in the wet and the same and more will be needed this week. The Swans love nothing more than to turn a game into a scrap so we need to get it on our terms by extracting the ball and moving it swiftly by hand to our outside runners. I am not a great fan of tagging but we may have to make an exception this week with Jetta. Jetta has more score involvements than any other Swan so he is damaging and worth special attention. If we go down that track, Bewick would be a fair chance for the role and frankly he needs something to do because he can lose focus otherwise.
But it’s likely the Swans’ potency in front of goals and our corresponding lack of scoring power will be what ultimately determines the outcome of this game. Even with Merrett’s expected return to defence, and as manfully as Clarke, Gardiner and Beasley have battled, I just can’t see us holding Buddy, Tippett, Goodes and Co to a losing score let alone scoring enough ourselves to be in front come the final siren. Franklin and Tippett have contributed approximately 40% of the Swans’ goals this year, which means not only are they an obvious handful but that the Swans have plenty of other avenues to goal even if we do manage to keep their talls to respectable numbers. Parker, Kennedy and Jack in particular are potent around goals, although this year perhaps not at the level of previous seasons. Midfielders contributing on the scoreboard is an area the Lions have traditionally struggled with which compounds our lack of key forwards. Beams, Robinson and Christensen have gone some way to remedying the deficiency this year, but more will be needed from Rich, Redden, Bewick, Lester and others in the midfield if we are to kick a winning score.
Of course, you can go a long way towards quelling the influence of key forwards by restricting the quantity or quality of supply. With a fully fit and firing Rocky and Hanley added to the mix I could see us doing that, but not otherwise. Even if Rocky and Hanley play, neither will be at 100%. Aish is one whose place would be in jeopardy after a less than convincing performance against Freo. Beasley looks promising but he or Bourke may also have to give way if Merrett in particular returns.
History tells us that at least one Swan will use this opportunity to have a season best performance. Reid has done it in the past (6 goals v us in 2012 is still his career best haul) and Goodes and McVeigh also seem to save their best efforts for us. In the past, we even made Lewis Roberts-Thompson look good. Let’s hope no-one gets let off the chain this week.
The Swans’ sometimes nervous backline and slowish midfield are areas we can exploit but they will be balanced to a degree by our propensity to turn the ball over in dangerous positions and our second half fadeouts. Against Freo the fadeout was confined to the final quarter but when it came it was just as pronounced and damaging - 7 goals to one - as those that had preceded it. If we can bring our running, overlapping, pressuring game to the table as we did against the Dockers then we have a chance to match the Swans but the question is how long we can sustain it. All things considered, I think probably not long enough.
Swans by 30.
