Game Day Round 18 Preview: “Home and Away” – Eagles take on Magpies in Etihad Aviary

[AsterixTheGaul]

Round 18 sees the Eagles travel to Melbourne to take on the Collingwood Magpies. There is some confusion because Collingwood are claiming it an away game. As such, Collingwood are seeking financial compensation from the AFL and have lodged a compensation claim to the AFL for $600,000 claiming that if it’s good enough for the Suns to get paid for losing their home ground, then it’s good enough for the Pies. Collingwood just wants an even playing field.

In 2017, Collingwood play 14 games at their home oval (the MCG - conveniently located 500 m from the Holden Training Centre) and will have to play West Coast at the other end of the CBD at Etihad in the Docklands. It has been noted that West Coast play 4 games at Etihad in 2017 which is 1 more than Collingwood meaning Eddie Everywhere is right and the fixtures are unfair to the Black and White Army. It also denies the Pies the chance to get the Flat Track Bullies on their home deck.

In terms of travel, Collingwood have been saddled with the tough burden of 2 long haul trips to Sydney so the AFL has compensated them only needing to travel to WA, SA and Queensland once. Of course any matches in China, NT and Tasmania are definitely off the agenda in 2017 and will stay that way for the foreseeable.

Getting to the Game

To help the Collingwood Faithful and anyone new to Melbourne, attached is a map on how to get to the Docklands. I have assumed the supporters and players will make their way to Etihad Stadium by foot and as they want to be “side by side”. The direct route is via Flinders Street going past the main station but if the Magpie faithful feel uncomfortable being forced to walk passed their old sleeping quarters on Flinders Street, they can take an alternate route via Southbank. Travel time will be around 45 minutes and it will be a distance of 3.5 km. This is quite a difference as it normally only takes 5 minutes to go the 500m to the MCG so supporters are advised to leave early.

To help the Black and White Army pass the time of the long walk, I have include a couple of paragraphs from Judith Wrights Poem “Magpies” to help pass the time while travelling:

Along the road the magpies walk
with hands in pockets, left and right.
They tilt their heads, and stroll and talk.
In their well-fitted black and white.

They look like certain gentlemen
who seem most nonchalant and wise
until their meal is served - and then
what clashing beaks, what greedy eyes!


Getting to Know About Collingwood – The Tradition Lives On

The suburb of Collingwood is named after Lord Cuthbert Collingwood, the 1st Baron Collingwood . The above picture is of Cuthbert proudly pictured in his Eagles home jacket; he was ahead of his time and was a true Eagles supporter. Despite a naval career that included taking over from Jackson Nelson’s ancestors in the Battle of Waterloo, the Collingwood Football Club overlooked such deeds of Cuthbert and showed their simpler side by electing to copy the home town playing jumper where Cuthbert came from and thus cloning the Newcastle Soccer team. Despite being one of England’s biggest teams (by way of supporter base), they continue to underachieve.


You can see the lack of creativity of Collingwood, even choosing to copy the Magpie mascot from Newcastle.




The Other Equalisation Debate



Birds are renowned for flying: unless of course you are a magpie.

The magpies are morphing into emu’s based on the 2017 fixtures. This game has a feeling of a top of the table verses bottom of the table clash. Unfortunately being top is a disadvantage.



The brains trust at Collingwood are about to put a proposal to Gil and the AFL for each of their players to receive 200,000 frequent flyer points each year to compensate them for the lack of travel opportunities outside of Melbourne. “We need a fair competition on all fronts” said Eddie “and you know my rich tradition of supporting the AFL in their equalisation rules.” He later went on record to say that it is hurting his club’s ability to attract good players in the trade and free agency period. This handicap can be seen from their actions in 2016 and his recruitment team scraped the bottom of the barrel and had to pick up the crap that nobody else wanted (and a big hello to Chris Mayne).



Anyone interested can have a look at the impact of long haul travel.

http://www.traveller.com.au/what-flying-does-to-your-body-goplt4

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The Big Off-field Match Ups

Nisbett v Pert



The Eagles have built a culture of ensuring everyone does what Nisbett tells them. Forget Russell Crow in “Master and Commander”, old Trev is a benchmark in autocracy. How he managed to keep his job after the drug era has most of the AFL and Perth communities perplexed. Calling him incestuous is ludicrous? Let’s agree that his son Todd was the best person to be appointed as Assistant to GM Football. Wouldn’t we all like the son of our boss sitting next to you each day and “assisting you in all that you do”? Fair to say his old school management has gone past it’s used by date. Like the Eagles List Management, we tend to hold onto our people for too long. Whilst his administration credentials are great, he makes a good number 2 but a leader he is not.

On the other hand, Gary Pert has a strong track record of empowerment. He has complete freedom at the club and empowered to do everything Eddie instructs him to do (whether through Board memo, face to face, Foxtel or via radio). That said, they have one of the best football facilities, a successful netball team and an AFLW team in addition to the best supported club in the land.

Winner: Pert for me as he actually understands the rigors of top level AFL and I liked going for a kick at his old hunting ground in Edinburgh Park when I lived in North Fitzroy.


Football Operations

Vozzo v Walsh/Balme/Allen/Walsh



Vozzo arrived at the club after the Eagles super-draft of 2010. He had risen from SANFL and Amateur footballer to lawyer to player agent and since moving west, he has risen from Contracts Manager to Football Operations GM. If wins and losses is a mark of a good coach, then recruitment and development must be the mark of a good football operations and list manager. From the 18 that started on the ground in the Derby last weekend, West Coast only had 3 players who have been drafted by the club in the last 6 drafts. Some call it an atrocity, some call it incompetence and some call is negligence. Anyhow you look at it, the smell is not good. He must be the worst GM Football in the competition.

The Pies on the other hand have not been able to keep any sort of continuity in the role and the GM Operations role is like a revolving door. It is speculation that one of the major recommendations from the review will be to give the role to Eddie McGuire.

Winner: Too close to call so we will say Pies by a Centrelink

Simpson v Buckley



Statistics can be misleading so I will put it simple. Coaching is a win/loss business. The results and the trend of that record speak a thousand words.



We need to put these records into some sort of context. Buckley took over the reins from a side that had just gone back to back minor premiers and 2010 Premiers while Simpson took over from a side that had finished 13th and Wooden Spooners in 2010. There has rightfully been a lot of speculation about the future of Buckley in Magpie Land. Despite the optimism that came with Simmo, there is growing speculation that Simpson is starting to lose the plot based on his in ability to pick youngsters, his inability to realise that Priddis and Mitchell cannot play in the same side and his inability to consistently motivate the team for 4 quarters. For all his faults though, Simpson is looking a lot more secure than Bucks who must be “Dead Man Walking”.

Winner: Simpson – you just gotta back him in.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The November Match Ups

Cripps v Crisp
Both midfielders were traded back to their home state as part of being pissed off with clubs not cutting the mustard and neither was exchanged for much. This battle will highlight who got the best value packet of crisps.

Wellingham v Grundy
That famous trade in 2012 with West Coast giving across pick 18 (in possibly the most compromised draft in history) to Collingwood for an elevated rookie names Sharod who was missing the social columns in Perth. The trade enabled the Pies to draft Grundy who was seen as a possible top 10 only to slide through with GWS who were already long on talls. Would the Trampoline King have been worth a 1st round pick in any other year? He is fortunate that some of the heat has gone off his trade with the all too famous Redden for a first round trade screw up in 2015. Advantage Pies.

Ellis v Mayne
The Eagles have only had one successful free agent yet the Pies seem to attract them all. Ellis only came to Perth to interview with Freo, saw the light and stayed a couple of seasons. Knew when it was time to go. Whilst Collingwood seem to be a destination club and were able to attract that damaging power forward in Chwis Mayne. And what a wonderful job he did in getting Collingwood to cough up $475k pa. Chwis is not only a list clogger but a salary cap glutton. Was this Derek, Gubby, Pert, Buckley or Eddie’s work? And to think the Frockers were able to get Bradley Hill with the compensation pick!!!!! Advantage Eagles.

Sheed v Scharenberg
Who won the trade in 2013? West Coast was supposedly planning to draft the Lark Medallist from WA with pick 6. So when the Pies asked for pick 6 (they were desperate for Scharenberg) in exchange for pick 11 and another 2nd rounder, we thought Vozzo was a star as the Dominatrix was still available at pick 11. It would have been even better if we had of been able to give Brisbane the Pies pick at 31 and still hold pick 28. Still we got The Karps and there are some who have not given up on Karpany yet. Advantage Eagles.

Hutchings/Sinclair v Lynch
Another great FA signing by Collingwood in 2012 saw the Q Stick move east with the Eagles receiving a 3rd round compensation pick. West Coast took “Clutching At Straws” with that compensation pick and then drafted Callum Sinclair in in the rookie draft to cover the loss of the Q Stick. Subsequently Lynch managed to play 18 games and kick 9 goals in his 2 years as a Magpie!!! Sinclair played 29 games and kicked 18 goals in the 3 years that followed. Callum was better known as the bait in the mega trade with Sydney that enabled the Eagles to get Jetta. Advantage Eagles.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

Teams and Prediction

Line up last time they met - 2016 at the MCG



In a nutshell, the Eagles lost the clearances 47 to 28 and lost the contested possessions 150 to 116. That summed up the day for West Coast. However on a positive note, the Eagles did win the interchanges. Enough said about last year.

Collingwood will have to wait to see if Pendlebury’s hand is fit to play. The other question is will Greenwood come straight back in and will Blair survive (a bit of a whipping boy in Magpie Land).

Meanwhile West Coast really only have 5 questions to ask on selection?

1. Can the team stand up in Melbourne?
2. Will Yeo be fit?
3. Can Mitchell and Priddis play in the same team?
4. Will Partington travel as an emergency?
5. Will the MC grow a set and inject some youth and speed plus reward WAFL form?

Let’s get serious; Yeo will be the only change with Masten making way. In terms of those other questions, you just gotta back the club champions regardless of the opposition and form.

Likely line-up for this week will be something like the following:





Form and Prediction

Since the Simpson coaching era, there have been 5 games played (3 Melbourne and 2 Subiaco) and the Eagles hold the advantage having won 3 of the 5 and importantly the most recent away win being in 2015.

Colonial Telstra Dome Etihad Stadium in Melbourne’s Docklands opened in 2000. At this venue, the Pies have hosted the Eagles 7 times and the Pies hold a slight advantage with 4 wins and 3 losses.

I went to the first game in 2000 and was a part of the 29,071 other people that saw us win.

2000 Eagles 18.20 defeated Pies 13.14 in front of 29,072
2001 Eagles 14.8 beaten by Pies 26.17 in front of 36,589
2003 Eagles 18.11 defeat Pies 15.13 in front of 39,912
2004 Eagles 11.9 beaten by Pies 14.9 in front of 44,401
2006 Eagles 13.12 beaten by Pies 19.13 in front of 38,777
2010 Eagles 7.10 beaten by Pies 20.15 in front of 38,781
2015 Eagles 11.21 defeated Pies 7.14 in front of 36,527

After much statistical modelling and Monte Carlo Simulation:

If the attendance at Docklands has the number 2 in it, the Eagles have a 100% win record.

If the attendance at Docklands does not have the number 2 in it, the Pies have a 100% win record.

The weather forecast is irrelevant for the game given the stadium has a lid. That said, a good wet soaking for the Black and White faithful as they approach the game may dull the noise from the travelling home side.

The Eagles are sitting 9:7 and are in Richmond land whereby they are neither seriously contending for the flag nor developing youngsters for a bright future. Their opponent are sitting 6:10 and continuing their race to the bottom hoping to pick up better draft picks as part of their 2 decade rebuild. No pressure but another disappointing season in Magpie land will bring serious heat on the exits of not just Nathan but surely also Eddie! Meanwhile Westcoast will have a higher membership number than Freo, the hope of an AFLW team in the next 5 years, new facilities at Lathlain and a new stadium deal so would have met their important KPI’s by the end of the season.


The predicted result: Let’s face facts, it all depends on the attendance at the Aviary and the Melbourne based Eagles fans controlling the turnstiles. A good win for the Pies on the Gold Coast will mean that there will be more that 29,999. That means thern is a 1 in 10 chance of the attendance having a 2 in it. So, if there is a 2 in the attendance, then the Eagles by a Nelson (30 points). If not, then the Pies by a Priddis (11 points).

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

Lol that Gold Coast and Port can go to China and back and still travel a good 10000-20000km less than the WA sides.

 

[Suma Magic]

Great work!

 

[Marlin01]

You realise the Eagles are currently 9 and 7, not 8 and 8 right?

 

[Monocle]

Well done .

Almost as long as War and Peace.

A few special points of excellence to note in your critique :

Loved Lord Collingwoods attire , in the Blue and Gold.

Also well played with the motif on the airplane.

Well spotted that the Collingwood jumper is copied from Newcastle FC, therfore that should not be at all surprising that it has attracted a similar lower class following as the Geordie's .Seems like the Black and White vertical strips are a shit magnet for retrabates.
For those not familiar with the goings on in the North East of England . The Geordie's ( Newcastle Supporters ) are that interbred group of Inhabitants that neither the English nor the Scots want to , either associate with or claim as their own, such is the level of their undesirability .

Entertaining read .

 

[Eagleboy68]

TLDR but it looks awesome.

Will not read again. (First time)

 

[Quinz]

We have the best oreviewers, don't we folks?

 

[LordHaart]

The predicted result: Let’s face facts, it all depends on the attendance at the Aviary and the Melbourne based Eagles fans controlling the turnstiles. A good win for the Pies on the Gold Coast will mean that there will be more that 29,999. That means thern is a 1 in 10 chance of the attendance having a 2 in it. So, if there is a 2 in the attendance, then the Eagles by a Nelson (30 points). If not, then the Pies by a Priddis (11 points).

Actually, there's a 41% chance of the number 2 cropping up in a random 5 digit number. Slightly higher in this case given that the first number is typically not that high either.

Good modelling btw, will 10/10 use this approach at work.

 

[Biggie]

Imma need a nap after that! Fantastic preview

 

[Keys]

No Pendlebury for the pies this weekend. Bad news for him as it may be season ending.

 

[Jiggyman]

If the attendance at Docklands has the number 2 in it, the Eagles have a 100% win record.

If the attendance at Docklands does not have the number 2 in it, the Pies have a 100% win record.

Amazing work

 

[FatPizza]

We have the best oreviewers, don't we folks?

Missing the P? *rimshot*

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

I read it as we have the best people who watch Oreos

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

That may be Ben Cousins, btw.

 

[MWPP]

This is one of the only games I wrote off at the beginning of the year, but I'm suddenly strangely confident.....

 

[Gods_Son23]

Pies hate etihad as much as we do the g. Last time we played them there it was a scrappy, high pressured, low skilled game from memory.

 

[avishka5]

No pendlebury but we will continue the tradition of letting teams minus their star/star become inspired and beat us.

 

[MWPP]

No pendlebury but we will continue the tradition of letting teams minus their star/star become inspired and beat us.

That tradition seems to happen when we are also minus our own star/s

Other teams' stars also seem to return against us (eg GC)

I'm glad JK is back

If only NN was on the park

 

[bunkyboy]

No pendlebury but we will continue the tradition of letting teams minus their star/star become inspired and beat us.

And watch for relative no-names have career best games.

 

[MWPP]

Interesting

Collingwood has struggled at Etihad Stadium recently, losing six of their past seven games there, while West Coast has four wins from its past six games at the venue over the past two years.

Thank god this game's at Etihad and not the G.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

After the game on the weekend, is Simmo still believing that our line up is fine? Centre clearances are going to be the Achilles Heel until either NicNat or we get people that can actually win the ball. No point being a great tackler without pace as the game has gone passed that. Seeing Pendlebury out gives some evening up but Gaff, Priddis and Mitchell against Treloar, Sidebottom and Hoskins-Elliott!

 

[Seadog]

After the game on the weekend, is Simmo still believing that our line up is fine? Centre clearances are going to be the Achilles Heel until either NicNat or we get people that can actually win the ball. No point being a great tackler without pace as the game has gone passed that. Seeing Pendlebury out gives some evening up but Gaff, Priddis and Mitchell against Treloar, Sidebottom and Hoskins-Elliott!

The Pies are living proof that a good midfield isn't all you need to win games. Will be interesting to see if our better forwards and backs can overcome their superior midfield.