Autopsy Round 22, 2021: Geelong v St.Kilda

[cooperrules]

Rebuild hanners reinvent hill. Good lord.

Cue: benny hill music.

 

[Ricmel]

Recruiters should just wait for the phantom drafts to be published, then search for the term "footy IQ"... they'd be halfway there. Gotta be the most underrated attribute.

Reasonably sure our recruiters can't read. Could be wrong.

 

[SaintBilly]

Rebuild hanners reinvent hill. Good lord.

Cue: benny hill music.

Oh great.

 

[Bill Mohr]

Is it a positive or not? Geelong had 100 more possessions than us and won every stat you can name just about but only won by 14 points

 

[gringo2011]

I wonder if it might speed his development if we have him run with the oppo's best or 2nd best mid next year. Have them lead him to the ball (worked a treat for Steele) If he builds his tank over preseason he should hold his own physically and his skills are reasonable as it is. Might be the way to go with him.

When he played this season that seemed to be what was happening. He played on Dusty at the centre bounce even but wasn't going as well as Steele did as a proper tagger. They seemed to have him stand a player rather than chase them around but that maybe due to a tank as well. If his back was a workload issue it might be something to do with a slow build of fitness too.

 

[prophetic1]

Yeah, for a brief moment McGregor was a level above... unfortunately he's just an out & out idiot of a human being. Living in Ireland I'm unfortunately exposed to him a fair bit more than what you guys are over there.
A bit of class added to fury causes opposition to respect and fear you...being a tactless thug just makes you a target for derision and a likely candidate to fall upon your own sword.

Wise words ! Yes I was going more for a bit of fury added to the class...as you see I know very little about McGREGOR... or the fighting he does! We definitely don' need more of the 'tactless thug' injected to our sport....the past has had plenty of that already!

 

[Joffaboy]

Reasonably sure our recruiters can't read. Could be wrong.

they could read Sharman's name Ok

 

[gringo2011]

I’d be inclined to stick at least 2 years, maybe 3 in front of him, just based on his initial body of work. He’s not relying on “element of surprise” to my eye, but looks to be a smart footballer who seeks the ball and knows what to do when he’s got it.

Lock him up and let him develop.

You'd definitely be looking to lock him away for two years on a pretty low wage and let him develop away and hopefully if he keeps it up extend early. He looks fantastic so far. It's been good timing though with a lot of good forwards taking the best defenders out of his area. Early in the year with him playing as one of the few forward options I'm not sure how effective he would have been. It's been the perfect start so far with his confidence getting a real boost and an almost seamless start to footy.

 

[gringo2011]

Is it a positive or not? Geelong had 100 more possessions than us and won every stat you can name just about but only won by 14 points

That's their game though, keeping off through chipping to players running into space and not going fast and wasteful. They trust their disposal to hold the ball so don't mind having 15 kicks to build up to a set shot where we need to minimise possession because we know we have too many players who can't reliably hit targets. Our ideal play is three long kicks end to end where we don't let our players have too many chances to make mistakes.

 

[gringo2011]

they could read Sharman's name Ok

Don't get too cocky, Libba was ordering champagne after getting excited about drafting Heath and ended up with Sharman instead. Thought he was ordering a $21 dollar bottle of wine off Booze Bud.

 

[Joffaboy]

Don't get too cocky, Libba was ordering champagne after getting excited about drafting Heath and ended up with Sharman instead. Thought he was ordering a $21 dollar bottle of wine off Booze Bud.

So Heath is a bust?

 

[lewdogs]

When I look at our midfield performance this year, this is how I rate it:
1. Steele
Daylight
2. Dunstan
3. Crouch
4. Ross
5. Jones

When you look at that, it shows a key area where we have struggled.
This year Crouch and Jones have performed as B graders. I think both can be A grade midfielders if they are in the right system and have the right level of consistent performance in that system. That is the first key area of improvement that we need, Crouch and Jones to be better.

The other potential area is Gresham, Clark and Bytel. Can they go in there and add important quality to that list above? Gresham yes but will his body allow it. Clark would need to get a lot fitter. Bytel is still questionable.

I think this also highlights the concern with just ditching Dunstan. Because like him or not, he has been our second best mid this year after Steele.

I don't think we are going to be able to pick up a guy by trade that will come in and be an A grader. We got Crouch and he hasn't been able to do it, we need to focus on getting more out of the players we have and hoping for improvement rather than spending heaps on a guy like Cerra who won't necessarily be any better than what we have.

 

[jwikked]

Is it a positive or not? Geelong had 100 more possessions than us and won every stat you can name just about but only won by 14 points

We were lucky we had a hot start.

 

[BrutThough]

Is it a positive or not? Geelong had 100 more possessions than us and won every stat you can name just about but only won by 14 points

It really illustrates how impactful King's start was. Every time we got it into his hands in that first quarter, we scored. And it gave us the breathing space needed to hold on for so long.

 

[The Punter]

I think we can move the King narrative from "if" to "when".

 

[flyingmagic]

It really illustrates how impactful King's start was. Every time we got it into his hands in that first quarter, we scored. And it gave us the breathing space needed to hold on for so long.

Genuine superstar.

King always felt tantalizing but the talk exceeded his performances. The past 6 weeks though he has been clunking everything and kicking straight. He is tearing games apart which gives me (and I imagine him) a lot of confidence going into next season. He is still a long way from being big/strong enough so he is only going to look better with another preseason to build muscle and core strength.

I would not be surprised at all if he is AA next year.

Which when I look at Steele in the midfield and Howard down back, our pathway to premiership contention starts to take shape. We obviously need more A grade players but the nucleus is there. If we get a full season from Marshall and 18 games from Ryder then I think we have a genuine top 4 shot (although at this rate, not sure how likely that is).

 

[BrutThough]

Genuine superstar.

King always felt tantalizing but the talk exceeded his performances. The past 6 weeks though he has been clunking everything and kicking straight. He is tearing games apart which gives me (and I imagine him) a lot of confidence going into next season. He is still a long way from being big/strong enough so he is only going to look better with another preseason to build muscle and core strength.

I would not be surprised at all if he is AA next year.

Which when I look at Steele in the midfield and Howard down back, our pathway to premiership contention starts to take shape. We obviously need more A grade players but the nucleus is there. If we get a full season from Marshall and 18 games from Ryder then I think we have a genuine top 4 shot (although at this rate, not sure how likely that is).

He has a genuine aura about him now. You just know watching him that he's going to be one of the best players in the competition for a very long time.

 

[Ricmel]

they could read Sharman's name Ok

Not sure I am happy with a 1 in 5 hit rate.

 

[Joffaboy]

Not sure I am happy with a 1 in 5 hit rate.

Not keen on Highmore, Wilkie, Connelly? Heath a bust already in your eyes?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

When I look at our midfield performance this year, this is how I rate it:
1. Steele
Daylight
2. Dunstan
3. Crouch
4. Ross
5. Jones

When you look at that, it shows a key area where we have struggled.
This year Crouch and Jones have performed as B graders. I think both can be A grade midfielders if they are in the right system and have the right level of consistent performance in that system. That is the first key area of improvement that we need, Crouch and Jones to be better.

The other potential area is Gresham, Clark and Bytel. Can they go in there and add important quality to that list above? Gresham yes but will his body allow it. Clark would need to get a lot fitter. Bytel is still questionable.

I think this also highlights the concern with just ditching Dunstan. Because like him or not, he has been our second best mid this year after Steele.

I don't think we are going to be able to pick up a guy by trade that will come in and be an A grader. We got Crouch and he hasn't been able to do it, we need to focus on getting more out of the players we have and hoping for improvement rather than spending heaps on a guy like Cerra who won't necessarily be any better than what we have.

Thought Jones was pretty good before his injury.

 

[SaintBilly]

Not keen on Highmore, Wilkie, Connelly? Heath a bust already in your eyes?

Hmmmm “Max Heath is a bust” just doesn’t have the same ring to it.

 

[Ricmel]

Which when I look at Steele in the midfield and Howard down back, our pathway to premiership contention starts to take shape. We obviously need more A grade players but the nucleus is there. If we get a full season from Marshall and 18 games from Ryder then I think we have a genuine top 4 shot (although at this rate, not sure how likely that is).

I feel like we were a 8 - 13 team this year. To go from there to top 4 needs a fair bit of improvement. Gresham back helps. Another year in Byrne, King, Sharman, Connolly should all improve. But I feel like 8 - 10 of our best 25 are probably as good as they are going to get. I think with this list our best chance of top 4 is if players like Hill, Crouch, Jones, Gresham all have career best (or close to) years in the same year.

 

[Ricmel]

Not keen on Highmore, Wilkie, Connelly? Heath a bust already in your eyes?

They are serviceable, Connelly may end up better than that. Highmore and Wilkie have been clever recruiting. What I'm not keen on is the elite talent we keep picking all around.

 

[lewdogs]

Thought Jones was pretty good before his injury.

Had some great games, but has been really inconsistent. His best is outstanding, might be injury related but we need him to be better.

 

[Circus]

Dunstan earned his spot and for a few weeks was close to our best player, Bytel showed flashes when he played but doesn't yet have the tank to be a permanent Mid at AFL level. He also doesn't have the tank or run to play forward or back like Byrnes does. So that is his challenge in the pre-season he needs to become an aerobic beast. We all want Bytel to replace Dunstan but he wasn't ready to do it this season.

There needs to be some focussed attention on the fitness of the youth on our list. Clark and Coffield were both really disappointing this year after looking like they had taken the step last year for whatever reason they went backwards this year and neither have developed AFL level engines yet. Maybe the short pre-season last year hurt us but a lot of expected improvement this year was based on those 2 stepping up. Clark still has an U18 physique time to put in the hard yards.

We could lose all of Dunstan Ross and Billings in the offseason that is a big hole to fill in the midfield even if all of them are frustrating they all have AFL level fitness. What Geelong showed was the weight of numbers in the midfield eventually overwhelmed us if we rely on Clark Bytel and Byrnes to replace Dunstan Ross and Billings they will all need to be substantially better than they were this season for us to remain competitive.

The backline looks solid Sinclair is elite and possibly the most under rated player in the comp at present. Highmore is a huge bonus hardly ever gets beaten, Wilkie and Howard are locks, and Webster has been great. Add Paton back, Geary and Joyce as backup and hopefully a 2020 version of Coffield and that end of the ground looks pretty strong. Hill can play his part there as well supporting Sinclair as an outlet and Connoly can play that role too. I would be tempted to keep Cavalino as depth as well.

The forward line looks set as well King on his form the last few weeks is a potential Coleman medalist, Sharman is a natural with Membury and Marshall the talls look set. Depending on how Allison is developing we may need to keep Wood and Battle as depth and it would be good to pick up another Key tall in the draft to develop. Higgins and Butler are both dangerous even if Butler struggled to find his best form he still worked his butt off defensively. Kent and Lonie are touch and go whether they retain their spots on the list at least 1 of them will probably go most likely Lonie. It is also likely Gresham plays more forward next year as he comes back from an injury that is likely to restrict his ability to reach midfield level fitness.

The midfield is the challenge. In the ruck a fit Ryder and Marshall would make a huge difference but I suspect relying on Ryder for 22 games plus finals is asking a lot of someone his age. We will need backup options, Heath is probably too young to offer much more than a cameo next year, I think the Alabakis experiment has probably failed and Hunter and McKernan aren't up to it. Probably means another pre-season punt on a State League ruck unless there is a disgruntled AFL ruck looking for a new home.

The inside grunt is probably strong enough with Steele Crouch and Bytel then maybe Dunstan as back up but what we lack is the inside out midfielders Jones is good but inconsistent. Ross is consistent but average, Gresham is dynamic but likely to be restricted next year and Hannebury is just a pipe dream. This is where a fitter stronger Clark is important and maybe an improved Byrnes but even with the most optimistic outlook we aren't competitive with the best teams. There won't be any A-Grade midfielders up for grabs at trade time and we have enough B-Graders without adding to the pool. We will need to draft our next midfield star and that probably means our ceiling for the current list is competing for a spot between 5th and 8th next year at best. The drafting over the past 3 years has been pretty good with limited picks time to back our recruiters and hit the draft.

That is an excellent summary of where we are right now!