Preview Round 8 2021, Fremantle vs Brisbane Lions, GABBA!, Sunday 9th May 4:40pm AEDT

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seanthelion

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Sep 24, 2017
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FOREWORD

At the time of writing, there is still a possibility that this game may be moved to the GABBA, or remain in Perth but have no spectators, like the Derby on Sunday. It all depends on the COVID cases in WA and their numbers over the next few days, and whether QLD will allow them in should the game be moved. Interesting times ahead for the AFL.

Also I wanted this game to be on the Saturday as it is my birthday so that I could drop some awesome AFL stats about birthdays, and games that happened on my birthday. Alas, it is on the Sunday, but I'll do it anyway! Stay tuned for this after the prediction.

LAST TIME THEY MET

Round 2 2020, Brisbane 12.9.81 d Fremantle 10.9.69 in front of a bumper crowd of 0. After nearly 3 months being starved of footy action because of the virus, it was just great to see footy back. Cameron kicked 4 before half time.



LAST WEEK

The Lions recorded a comprehensive 49-point victory over their bunnies, a listless Port Adelaide. Charlie Cameron and Harris Andrews were back to their best, while McCluggage continued to impress. Starcevich also caught the eye with his attack in the back half, while the whole defensive unit blanketed Port's small forward brigade.

The Dockers couldn't go with the hungry Eagles for the whole 4 quarters who were smashed by 97 the week prior, ultimately going down by 59. It looked on track to be a high scoring encounter at half time, but the eagles piled on the goals in the second half. Brayshaw, Fyfe and Mundy were their best mids, while Taberner kicked 3 goals.

MEDICAL ROOM


We know about Neale (8 weeks) and Rayner (season), while Darcy Gardiner should available after concussion, and possibly Jarrod Berry to come back in.

Fremantle have some notable outs in Cerra, Hill and Young. Defender Luke Ryan is possibility to come back in after missing the derby with a calf injury.

THE SEASON SO FAR

After a slow 1-3 start after 4 rounds, the lions have since won three in a row, including against premiership contender Port Adelaide and seem to be building, if not back to their 2020 form.

Fremantle have had a reasonable first 7 rounds of the season, beating GWS, Hawthorn, Adelaide, and North, while going down to Melbourne, Carlton, and West Coast.

WHO WINS AND WHY

With the lions beginning to fire, they should be more than ready to take on the Dockers.

Starting down back for the lions, the defensive unit comes up against the likes of Taberner, Lobb and Walters. Walters is the most dangerous small forward at Fremantle (lions fans would not have fond memories of that 2019 game), however Taberner has developed into a very reliable 1-2 goals a week key forward, kicking 3 last week. Lobb's (2 goals last week) height and reach makes him a threat in Fremantle's forward line as well when he is not rucking. Don't forget about Fyfe who can also drift forward for a goal. I'd back Andrews, Adams, and Gardiner to combat the talls and Starcevich and Lester to take care of the smalls, while Rich, Starcevich (again) and Birchall/Madden provide the attacking component of the defence to drive the ball forward.

In the forward half, the Fremantle defence will have their hands full against the talls Daniher, Hipwood and McStay, while Cameron and McCarthy will trouble them. Expect Luke Ryan to come back in for Fremantle, joining Cox and Louge, Wilson, Hughes and Conca. Given enough supply, the Lions' forwards should be too much for the Dockers defence to handle.

Speaking of supply, as usual, the game will be won and lost in the midfield, where the two teams are more equal. Berry if in, McCluggage, Lyons, Mathieson, Robertson and Bailey will come up against Fyfe, Mundy and Brayshaw, Schultz, and Aish. As always, Fyfe is the greatest threat to our chances of victory. He nearly won the game for them last time. Munday is as reliable as ever, and Brayshaw is ensconced in the midfield as a vital player. Schultz is one to watch as well, who has had a bright start to his career thus far. Wihtout Neale and Rayner, getting on top of Fremantle's midfield will be more difficult. It is vital we keep up the pressure and not let Fyfe do as he pleases. We unfortunately have a history of letting big-bodied mids run over the top of us, however I think even without Neale or Rayner, this midfield is capable.

Keep the pressure up, kick straight, generate enough scoring opportunities and we should win by 22.

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AFL BIRTHDAY SHENANIGANS AND FUN FACTS


- There have been 12 players born on May 8th. Those still playing are Aiden Bonar, Harry Himmelberg, Luke Valente, Oleg Markov. Himmelberg, Markov and I were born on the same day and year. The most successful of these 8th May players is Kurt Tippett, followed by Himmelberg. There is one former lion on this list - Dylan McLaren, who played the 2004 GF but was delisted in 2005 before heading to Carlton.

- There have been 108 matches played on May 8th, including the first ever VFL round in 1897. The most recent match on my birthday was in 2016 where Brisbane lost to Port back in the dark days.

-Despite me being born on a Wednesday, there was a match played on this day to commemorate the 100th year of V/AFL. Essendon 22.11.143 defeated Geelong 17.12.114.

-The Lions have played 4 times on my birthday, winning 2 (Collingwood in 1999 and North in 2004) and losing 2 (Fremantle in 2010 and Port in 2016).

-37 players made their debut on their birthday, most recently Lachie Jones of Port Adelaide in Round 4 this year against Richmond. For the lions, Robert Copeland made his debut on his 20th birthday.

-Finally my favourite AFL birthday stat courtesy of Swamp:

 

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trikster

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Supposedly just waiting on the QLD government to approve Freo to fly in and out without drama and then the switch will be announced
 

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ep2018

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Sportsbet are asleep..got $1.52 earlier still $1.49..game in Perth odds..

$1.20 at the Gabba I reckon
Most if not all betting agencies would make the bet void if the venue changes, especially if it changes to the opponents home ground. Was thinking of doing the same but I read up on it. Wait until just after the venue change is announced and hope the odds are the same now imo.
 

Lace Out

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Most if not all betting agencies would make the bet void if the venue changes, especially if it changes to the opponents home ground. Was thinking of doing the same but I read up on it. Wait until just after the venue change is announced and hope the odds are the same now imo.
Highly possible..we’ll see how far their goodwill stretches
 

Jason mp

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Dam! I rarely work Sundays but was happy to work this one.
One of my grandsons has a game at 3PM Sunday and the other turns 16 Sunday, going out for a family dinner at The Morrison, hopefully it's on the big screen, we may even be able to hear the roar at the Gabba from there.

It will be the first home game I have missed since I can't even remember..... except for the Covid no crowds last year of course.
 

Section 5

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Nov 26, 2018
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Should the game be changed to The Gabba it may be a small crowd
Short notice to sell tickets to public + Mothers Day

But i am quite happy to get Dockers at home when they still believe they have a chance to make the 8
Even though they struggled last week playing them in Perth is always a danger for any team
 

Gadzorks

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Oct 23, 2015
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Should the game be changed to The Gabba it may be a small crowd
Short notice to sell tickets to public + Mothers Day

But i am quite happy to get Dockers at home when they still believe they have a chance to make the 8
Even though they struggled last week playing them in Perth is always a danger for any team
i wonder if we ask for financial compensation. if we are too eight at the seasons end we’d be guaranteed a big crowd.
 

T Rick

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i wonder if we ask for financial compensation. if we are too eight at the seasons end we’d be guaranteed a big crowd.
Jeez we have already been unlucky with the Gabba games and crowds this year. We forfeited the Easter blockbuster against Collingwood and have had weather affected games against Essendon and Port...both crowds down on what we might have otherwise expected - particularly the game against Essendon.
 

PattyKwasagun

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i wonder if we ask for financial compensation. if we are too eight at the seasons end we’d be guaranteed a big crowd.
To be honest, even if we were top of the ladder at the end of the season I still don’t think a Sunday game against Freo would draw more than, say, 22k.

Especially considering we will have much bigger home games against Collingwood and West Coast around the same time, I can’t imagine Freo being a big draw card.

We might lose 3000 or 4000 on that this weekend with the short notice, but I’d guess many of them would be members anyway who have already paid and just can’t make it with the rescheduled date. Wouldn’t think there’d be too many single ticket buyers for this game who would’ve come later in the year but won’t now.
 

PattyKwasagun

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Jeez we have already been unlucky with the Gabba games and crowds this year. We forfeited the Easter blockbuster against Collingwood and have had weather affected games against Essendon and Port...both crowds down on what we might have otherwise expected - particularly the game against Essendon.
It’s hard to be sure that the rain played a role though, considering how sports crowds seem to be down nationwide at the moment. Still a little bit of hesitancy returning to games in the current climate I think.

I also think there’s a pretty good chance the AFL will help us out with scheduling a few of our bigger games in prime time slots to make up for the Collingwood game too. As has already happened with the Richmond home game.
 
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