Coach Sam Mitchell's direction for the club and 2024 news

[Strapping Young Lad]

If anyone wants to have a listen about what the data is saying in regards to whether we have actually gotten worse this year have a listen to this from the 9:15 mark.

I know a few people have already touched on it, but the data is also showing that our results this year have been slightly better despite actually putting out a younger team and dealing with some injuries.




And here.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Pfft. Never wasting time to win games. We lost 3 by under a kick. Coaching fail not to train for a win.

Love the fact that Sammy could stick his hand up and admit fault. Will improve him as a coach.

I know you’re trying to antogoanise others with this, but you realize that we also have lost more games by over 50pts than most clubs, yeah?

Where do you think the priority should be?

Trying to not get wiped off the park each week with the youngest list in the comp or planning for a possible close finish?

 

[Hawker55]

I wouldn’t think that’s something we are ready to be practicing just yet

I should’ve scrolled down before posting
Kermit had already said it, better

I get the point, but that's 3 games this year we've lost by under a kick - it's not as if we're not getting into those positions. If we were getting flogged every week then I'd agree, but we're not and we've left 12 points on the table by not having the nous to close out a close game.

 

[Flukey!]

I know you’re trying to antogoanise others with this, but you realize that we also have lost more games by over 50pts than most clubs, yeah?

Where do you think the priority should be?

Trying to not get wiped off the park each week with the youngest list in the comp or planning for a possible close finish?

I would have hoped/expected that the coaches could have influenced the game to get us the win rather than the players.
They should have known how even if the players didn't.

Last week was a bad loss. It shouldn't have happened.

 

[HawthornHawk]

I know you’re trying to antogoanise others with this, but you realize that we also have lost more games by over 50pts than most clubs, yeah?

Where do you think the priority should be?

Trying to not get wiped off the park each week with the youngest list in the comp or planning for a possible close finish?

The key words from Sam when questioned about this were that we need to spend that time at training focusing on actually being in games

 

[lethalselbow]

I know you’re trying to antogoanise others with this, but you realize that we also have lost more games by over 50pts than most clubs, yeah?

Where do you think the priority should be?

Trying to not get wiped off the park each week with the youngest list in the comp or planning for a possible close finish?

Not antagonizing others. People don't like to hear a mistake our coach made, that's their look out. It's not a hanging offense to make an error and Sammy is not infallible.

100% to not get wiped off the park by other sides, but full time footballers can dedicate some time to train for tight situations. Junior footballers and basketballers do it and they get limited training time. It's something the players should have... and now will train for when such situations arise. Things take time to drill.

Listen to his press conference. He erred.

 

[Sixpence]

I get the point, but that's 3 games this year we've lost by under a kick - it's not as if we're not getting into those positions. If we were getting flogged every week then I'd agree, but we're not and we've left 12 points on the table by not having the nous to close out a close game.

We have been! At least for most of the season. We've had the following losses:

59, 81, 82, 69, 54, 55, 67, 60

That's 8 out of 18 with the most recent being 3 weeks ago. We also gave up decent leads against Bulldogs and Richmond. Versus 3 close finishes. I'd much rather we focused on not getting completely ****ing obliterated in a match than being able to win close ones against average teams.

 

[Mr Lizard]

Not antagonizing others. People don't like to hear a mistake our coach made, that's their look out. It's not a hanging offense to make an error and Sammy is not infallible.

100% to not get wiped off the park by other sides, but full time footballers can dedicate some time to train for tight situations. Junior footballers and basketballers do it and they get limited training time. It's something the players should have... and now will train for when such situations arise. Things take time to drill.

Listen to his press conference. He erred.

I think you should listen to his press conference (again?). You have erred.

 

[Dipper]

We're 18th for goal kicking accuracy; I'd hope we put time into that before dealing with close finishes.

Cos that improved goal kicking will win a lot of those games anyway.

There's only so much time they have, I'd leave working on killing a game over the last couple of minutes to the second last thing you start to practice ...one before Grand Final victory speeches.

 

[Briar Gold]

Brenton Sanderson

Brenton Sanderson

Age

50

Ht

185cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

4.6

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

22.4

5star

K

16.0

5star

HB

6.4

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

said during his SEN Whateley segment that he was surprised we hadn't practiced close finishes. It takes 5 minutes at the end of each match sim.

Don't shoot the messenger, but he was pretty strong on it.

 

[PenAndPaper]

Brenton Sanderson said during his SEN Whateley segment that he was surprised we hadn't practiced close finishes. It takes 5 minutes at the end of each match sim.

Don't shoot the messenger, but he was pretty strong on it.

Rather us spend time on practicing keeping a 36 point lead than a close finish tbh

 

[FB19]

History is littered with successful sides recounting the game that became their learning and this game screams of that for us. If that is true or even if just a significant learning as it absolutely should be then strategically we will be glad we didn’t train for it. Over summer we should start though of course it’s all part of where we are at.

 

[CaptainWorpedo]

Were in the middle of a rebuild, some lessons are best learnt in real time and then practised after the fact.

If Sammy hasnt coached this in the past, is it an indication were ahead of his schedule? Personally i think so.

I am excited for 2024 AFL season, as i believe the Hawks are a good chance of landing the top 8 position.

 

[The Chad and I]

Imagine coaching to secure close wins when you routinely lose by 10 goals bc you're not getting the fundamentals right consistently!

 

[theiaofseed]

Brenton Sanderson said during his SEN Whateley segment that he was surprised we hadn't practiced close finishes. It takes 5 minutes at the end of each match sim.

Don't shoot the messenger, but he was pretty strong on it.

Remind me again how his coaching career went?

 

[Briar Gold]

Remind me again how his coaching career went?

Big Footy never change. I didn't say I agreed with his statements but it was an interesting discussion - available on podcast if you want to check it out.

Beware the favourite son complex just because Sam is a legend of our club. He seems to be a fantastic coach but still a lot to learn and we should be able to debate that.

 

[Brishawk]

Well if you want to optimise wins, the the fastest way to achieve more wins is going to address the close games. Its going to be easier to turn a narrow loss into a win compared with a large loss.

But these aren’t mutually exclusive objectives. What we lack is a plan B for all stages of the game. When same sent extras back during the last quarter (8 defenders) we still kept trying to force the ball forward. This played into richmonds hands as it freed up their extra and the git a lot of run off half back from this.

We can benefit in all types of games by learning how to play with an out numbered forward line. Its obvious that it isnt something we train a lot with because we had nfi what to do once we got the ball. Being able to adopt a defensive stance or tactic during a match can help this side arrest momentum swings against us. Get the game back on even terms and then turn the momentum back our way. This will help close out games but it will also help during games that we presently get flogged as we concede a run of goals. Is it as optimal as doing specific close out simulation? Maybe not quite but it would improve end game and end quarter periods where our legs are tired and we have lost momentum.

 

[Yardie]

Big Footy never change. I didn't say I agreed with his statements but it was an interesting discussion - available on podcast if you want to check it out.

Beware the favourite son complex just because Sam is a legend of our club. He seems to be a fantastic coach but still a lot to learn and we should be able to debate that.

I think you need to go and listen to what Sam said in his presser about how they are approaching the overall way in which we train. Basically said they are working towards it but have to sort out other things first (although I think he may revisit earlier rather than later). Was very insightful.

And agree with being able to call out our coaches on their mistakes.

 

[Brishawk]

Ok time for some analysis to help get us through to the end of the season and put this year into context with our recent seasons. In what follows, I have ditched 2020 due to covid and shortened game time.

1. Cumulative points scored by season shows that in raw numbers, we really did lift out offensive output in Sam's first season after the dire 2021 season under Clarko. We haven't backed that up but that is understandable given the loss of experience over the offseason.


2. I have developed a cumulative z-score chart in an attempt to control for the quality of the opposition and the between season variation. On this chart, it seems that we likely played tougher opponents in 2021 as we scored above expect as we improved through the season. 2019 looks far less impressive on this measure, suggesting that overall our attack was not as strong as it was in 2022 but still a lot stronger than 2023, which is quite poor relative to recent seasons.


3. Same chart as 1 except points against. The last three seasons look almost identical, with 2019 being well ahead of the rest (lower the better). So the additional attacking power under sam in 2022 didn't come at the expense of defence. 2023 also similar to previous seasons suggesting the issue relative to last year, has been out attack (which we all know).


4. The cumulative z-score chart shows that in 2019 we really were very good defensively. But it also shows that the defensive 'success' of 2021 was not as strong as it seemed once you account for the quality of the opposition. 2022 and 2023 look near identical in recent rounds but it shows that we were very poor early in the year and have slowly improved.

 

[TheFourPillars]

Ok time for some analysis to help get us through to the end of the season and put this year into context with our recent seasons. In what follows, I have ditched 2020 due to covid and shortened game time.

1. Cumulative points scored by season shows that in raw numbers, we really did lift out offensive output in Sam's first season after the dire 2021 season under Clarko. We haven't backed that up but that is understandable given the loss of experience over the offseason.
View attachment 1758693

2. I have developed a cumulative z-score chart in an attempt to control for the quality of the opposition and the between season variation. On this chart, it seems that we likely played tougher opponents in 2021 as we scored above expect as we improved through the season. 2019 looks far less impressive on this measure, suggesting that overall our attack was not as strong as it was in 2022 but still a lot stronger than 2023, which is quite poor relative to recent seasons.
View attachment 1758697

3. Same chart as 1 except points against. The last three seasons look almost identical, with 2019 being well ahead of the rest (lower the better). So the additional attacking power under sam in 2022 didn't come at the expense of defence. 2023 also similar to previous seasons suggesting the issue relative to last year, has been out attack (which we all know).
View attachment 1758701

4. The cumulative z-score chart shows that in 2019 we really were very good defensively. But it also shows that the defensive 'success' of 2021 was not as strong as it seemed once you account for the quality of the opposition. 2022 and 2023 look near identical in recent rounds but it shows that we were very poor early in the year and have slowly improved.
View attachment 1758703

Love this mate

 

[grumbleguts]

We're 18th for goal kicking accuracy; I'd hope we put time into that before dealing with close finishes.

Cos that improved goal kicking will win a lot of those games anyway.

There's only so much time they have, I'd leave working on killing a game over the last couple of minutes to the second last thing you start to practice ...one before Grand Final victory speeches.

Especially if those grand final victory speeches include the words: I'm glad we focussed on closing out close games in training.

 

[HedgeFund]

Wasting time on scenario work would've taken it away from the work that got us in a winning position in the first place, meaning the scenario work would've been a waste of time as we'd not have been close enough to need it...

Haven't you seen Back to the Future?

You can actually do both.

What actual specific work did we do last week that got us into such a strong position?

 

[HedgeFund]

O

Ok time for some analysis to help get us through to the end of the season and put this year into context with our recent seasons. In what follows, I have ditched 2020 due to covid and shortened game time.

1. Cumulative points scored by season shows that in raw numbers, we really did lift out offensive output in Sam's first season after the dire 2021 season under Clarko. We haven't backed that up but that is understandable given the loss of experience over the offseason.
View attachment 1758693

2. I have developed a cumulative z-score chart in an attempt to control for the quality of the opposition and the between season variation. On this chart, it seems that we likely played tougher opponents in 2021 as we scored above expect as we improved through the season. 2019 looks far less impressive on this measure, suggesting that overall our attack was not as strong as it was in 2022 but still a lot stronger than 2023, which is quite poor relative to recent seasons.
View attachment 1758697

3. Same chart as 1 except points against. The last three seasons look almost identical, with 2019 being well ahead of the rest (lower the better). So the additional attacking power under sam in 2022 didn't come at the expense of defence. 2023 also similar to previous seasons suggesting the issue relative to last year, has been out attack (which we all know).
View attachment 1758701

4. The cumulative z-score chart shows that in 2019 we really were very good defensively. But it also shows that the defensive 'success' of 2021 was not as strong as it seemed once you account for the quality of the opposition. 2022 and 2023 look near identical in recent rounds but it shows that we were very poor early in the year and have slowly improved.
View attachment 1758703

If you did this with Port Adelaide you will tie yourself in knots. They are scoring worse in 2023 than 2022 yet sit 2nd in the ladder.

The key metric is ability to win close games. That’s why Collingwood sit where they are.

 

[grumbleguts]

You can actually do both.

What actual specific work did we do last week that got us into such a strong position?

We kicked 5 goals more than richmond.

 

[Brishawk]

O

If you did this with Port Adelaide you will tie yourself in knots. They are scoring worse in 2023 than 2022 yet sit 2nd in the ladder.

The key metric is ability to win close games. That’s why Collingwood sit where they are.

Port are scoring heaps more this year than last year. Defence about the same hence more wins. Its easy to get caught up in the close wins, and that certainly makes a difference at the margins but for a long time percentage has been a very good guide to likely premiership chances, indicating the differential between attack and defence over the course of a season is more important that raw totals. ITs not perfect but most premiers have a percentage of over 120%.

I'm still refining the methodology but I think what it does well is show the trajectory of a team. Take Geelong between last year and this year.

1. 2022 both attack and defence are improving through the season but especially in the second half of the season. The upward slope suggests that week-on-week the cats were performing better than the statistical average of their opponent. This propelled them to the top of the ladder and right in the frame for a premiership.


2. 2023 is a very different looking chart. Their defence has sat around average (it is close to the expected value) for most of the season with some improvement in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the flat slope of their attack from around round 6 suggests they had a few good weeks prior to propel their cumulative z-score upward but since then they have performed around the expected value. in short, for most of the year, they have performed like an average side and also find themselves in the middle of the table.


Compare this with Port in 2023. Their attack has been improving through most of the season although it isn't amazing overall relative to expectations and it has flattened out as the season has progressed. Their defence is average so they need to be scoring to win games.


and now the Lions. Their defence is improving and their attack is the best in the league. Both going the right direction (last night's game not in this data). But they don't look as balanced as Geelong 2022.


Pies look very similar to the Lions but with attack and defence reversed.


And the dees attack woes are very clear in their chart.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I bloody love watching Sam talk to the playing group. You see so many coaches who talk to the players like they’re a bunch of school kids whereas Sam seems so at ease just talking to them like peers. He hasn’t forgot where he came from and that it was once him in the position. I don’t for a minute think he’s struggle to put someone in their place if needed but in moments like these he’s such a good communicator to watch.