Should the AFL have NBA type lottery draft.

footyfan78

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So in the second round, does the order revert to where teams finished on the ladder?

Also, how would the lottery interact with trading of future picks? I like the idea, but the AFL would need to think through these issues. And I don't trust them to get it right.
Yes, the order reverts to reverse finishing order after the initial top ten picks.

Future traded picks would come into play. If some club trades their future pick where that pick goes into lottery goes to the club that got the pick in a previous trade. But clubs know that in advance when trading future picks. It is why future trading is very interesting as you can get access to picks really early if you smart trade even if you are up near top of ladder. It is what would make the lottery night extra interesting too, when that twist is added from time to time.
 

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kane249

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I was looking for a post or thread about this, its time the AFL have some sort of lottery and stop rewarding teams for finishing last. Should come in this year, its past due.
Should be next year as it will give teams a year to adjust form and also will exclude any future picks that were traded last year that were done under the exisiting system.

Although this is the AFL we are talking about, they will probably bring it in after round 23 this year with no warning.
 
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Alright, I'll re-phrase - Who has genuinely tanked in the last decade? Usually teams don't win because they just aren't good enough anyway.

In an 18-a-side game where draftees don't usually hit their prime until 5-6 years into their career, the draft isn't nearly the quick fix that it can be in other sports, which renders tanking kind of pointless.
Nobody off the top of my head.

Teams would be more subtle about it now surely.
 

Dr Awkward

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I was looking for a post or thread about this, its time the AFL have some sort of lottery and stop rewarding teams for finishing last. Should come in this year, its past due.
It hasn't actually stopped tanking in the NBA though. Some teams like the 76ers and Knicks have spent whole seasons tanking.

I think keep the AFL draft as it is. Teams don't tank that much and if they do it's only one or two games who cares.
 

Dr Awkward

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In round 9 generally nobody is tanking.

Ask again at round 21.

Carlton wont this year.
North might?
Gold Coast might?
St Kilda might?
A lottery doesn't usually solve tanking though. The lottery is likely to mean that the bottom four or some select group of teams raffle it off. Teams can still tank to get into the bottom 4.
 

Alphonse_

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I was looking for a post or thread about this, its time the AFL have some sort of lottery and stop rewarding teams for finishing last. Should come in this year, its past due.
Lol, a Hawthorn supporter (the team with by far the worst/least talented youth in the AFL) is crying foul and wants an AFL draft Lottery.

Um Hawthorn, if you want decent draft picks, maybe stop throwing them away on the likes of O'Meara and Wingard, and learn to draft better.

If Geelong and Richmond can keep drafting and developing good kids despite finishing in the top end of the ladder, that is proof enough we don't need a draft lottery in the AFL. Anyhow the introduction of live trading of future picks on draft night does give higher placed clubs an opportunity to acquire better picks.
 
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A weighted lottery reduces the chance of benefiting from tanking, but doesn't remove the motivation to do so if it already exists, as losing still increases your odds. It also penalises teams that genuinely want to win, but just aren't good enough.

An unweighted lottery including all teams outside the finals defeats the purpose of the draft, and an unweighted lottery including only certain lower teams (say, the bottom six) just makes tanking attractive to a different set of teams.

If the objective is to eliminate tanking, the best system I've seen (proposed, although I'm not sure how seriously, for the NHL) is this:

Once a team is mathematically eliminated from finals, they start accruing wins towards draft position. The team with the most wins after being eliminated gets pick 1. The second most gets pick 2, etc ...

A **** team eliminated early gets the benefit of more opportunities to earn themselves a good draft position, and a very strong motivation to keep trying to win.

A team on the cusp of finals wants to keep winning to make finals. If they're good enough to only be eliminated in the last round or two of H&A, they have little or no opportunity to inflate their draft position.
 
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I'm sorry but what a complete load of rubbish. When is Australia going to stop this obsession with how America does everything and stick to their own ideas. For starters America has a much larger population, bigger cities, more money pretty much everything more than Australia does other than probably crowds. Although some things have worked well from their ideas not everything is going to be the same.

the whole point of the draft system is to build up the bottom clubs. If they fail this like Carlton or Melbourne then that's their own fault. If you take it away from these clubs then you will have an even more lop sided comp than you already have. Is it unfair to the clubs? Of course. Do the lower clubs actually deserve it? Of course they don't but at the end of the day the system is in place for a reason.
 

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10571z

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Lol, a Hawthorn supporter (the team with by far the worst/least talented youth in the AFL) is crying foul and wants an AFL draft Lottery.

Um Hawthorn, if you want decent draft picks, maybe stop throwing them away on the likes of O'Meara and Wingard, and learn to draft better.

If Geelong and Richmond can keep drafting and developing good kids despite finishing in the top end of the ladder, that is proof enough we don't need a draft lottery in the AFL. Anyhow the introduction of live trading of future picks on draft night does give higher placed clubs an opportunity to acquire better picks.
Carlton’s high draft picks have worked out well.

Pick 1 pick 8 there is no difference. So many dudd pick 1s now it’s a lottery anyways
 
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A lottery doesn't usually solve tanking though. The lottery is likely to mean that the bottom four or some select group of teams raffle it off. Teams can still tank to get into the bottom 4.
It does stop the bottom 4 trying to out-lose each other though.
If you're 2nd to bottom, 2 games behind 3rd to bottom, you have no reason to lose.
 

Rioli2Gunstall

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Lol, a Hawthorn supporter (the team with by far the worst/least talented youth in the AFL) is crying foul and wants an AFL draft Lottery.

Um Hawthorn, if you want decent draft picks, maybe stop throwing them away on the likes of O'Meara and Wingard, and learn to draft better.

If Geelong and Richmond can keep drafting and developing good kids despite finishing in the top end of the ladder, that is proof enough we don't need a draft lottery in the AFL. Anyhow the introduction of live trading of future picks on draft night does give higher placed clubs an opportunity to acquire better picks.
Richmond finished high twice i wouldnt be putting them in the category of Geelong, who got some very nice father son picks btw. Our drafting has been pretty good, high draft picks are wasted at clubs like carlton its done them no good for the last 16 years or so. Thats not really the point, i just think it adds something and makes the lottery a bit of an exciting event, the top 8 would probably be excluded so wouldnt affect teh hawks much anyway.
 
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Dr Awkward

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Surely clubs like Carlton and Melbourne have put an end to the idea that stockpiling high draft picks will get you a flag.

Winning a flag takes 20 - 25 good players, many different ways to recruit them and develop them.

I honestly don't think teams tank that much. Maybe there were a couple of games here and there but it's not that big an issue in our sport and not worth a knee-jerk reaction rule change.
 

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Surely clubs like Carlton and Melbourne have put an end to the idea that stockpiling high draft picks will get you a flag.

Winning a flag takes 20 - 25 good players, many different ways to recruit them and develop them.

I honestly don't think teams tank that much. Maybe there were a couple of games here and there but it's not that big an issue in our sport and not worth a knee-jerk reaction rule change.
This!

NBA you only have 5 players on the court, so getting a LeBron or Durant make you an immediate challenger.

AFL you are talking about 17-18 yr old kids, being potentially 1 of 22 players. They don’t make as much difference.

You are never going to stop teams ‘tanking’, professional teams are planning for future success once they realise the current season is done, this results are somewhat irrelevant.
 

Strahany

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The idea of the draft is to promote fairness by ensuring the worst teams have the best access to talented kids.

By keeping the system as it is, sure, it incentivises tanking in order to push towards the bottom. But no team who truly doesn’t need the high draft pick will tank. That is to say that a top-4 quality side will not simply decide to tank for a year or 2 to try to bolster their list for a flag tilt; it’s always one of the 2 or 3 worst teams, so the draft is still working as intended.

Conversely, the lottery opens up the chance for a team, who is already strong and on the cusp of contending, to get their hands on high draft picks. This subverts the system and potentially greatly imbalances the competition. Whilst this is unlikely, the only way it can happen is if you give it any chance; don’t give it this chance. It’s fine the way it is and, besides, with Free Agency now a thing, there is less incentive to tank since teams need to show to prospective recruits that they will be coming to a challenging side. You can’t do that if you’re tanking.
 
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