Prediction Show us ya ladder!

[X_box_X]

Interesting scenario with my ladder predictor and it involves GWS and WB winning today and Geelong winning their final two. We'll potentially have GEE v WB and Car v GWS playing each other in the final round & also in week one of finals.

 

[ScragCity]

I had us beating Eagles but losing to Hawks in Tas and Geelong in Geelong. Do you think that's such a far-fetched prediction? Hawks just beat the top team and we choked against the Hawks in Tas in 2021 when we needed to win to secure a top four spot. We haven't won in Geelong for 20 years. I also tipped moderate margins in all games and mostly the favourites.

Prophetic

 

[ScragCity]

They laughed at me when I said we would miss finals this year! Well, who's laughing now?


(Not me )

 

[Next Waiting]

2 into 3 doesn't go.

Cats, GWS, Dogs. 1 misses out.

IMO, we actually have to beat Geelong in Geelong to be anything. It's the catalyst, the monkey off the back, the watershed that has to happen. Don't beat Geelong R24 but make it, we're going home early. Beat Geelong R24, anything can happen.

 

[St 07]

2 into 3 doesn't go.

Cats, GWS, Dogs. 1 misses out.

IMO, we actually have to beat Geelong in Geelong to be anything. It's the catalyst, the monkey off the back, the watershed that has to happen. Don't beat Geelong R24 but make it, we're going home early. Beat Geelong R24, anything can happen.

We lost to their ressies at home

 

[Next Waiting]

We lost to their ressies at home

 

[Optimistic Dog]

How to make it by beating only WCE and losing to the cats. Probably a few ways but the key is Swans beating the crows which knocks them out even with WCE to come and the saints to beat the cats which knocks them out. Then it would need the winner of the GWS V bombers game to lose to ether the blues or the pies in the last round. Could come down to the last game again but this time we need the blues to win against GWS.

 

[Golden_6]

Unfortunately I still have us making the finals even by just beating WCE, prolonging out misery for a further two weeks. A final with the Blues may beckon.

I have GWS beating the Bombers and losing to the Blues. Saints losing their final two to the Cats & Lions.

Of course there’s a thousand different scenarios that could actually occur.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Genuinely surprised we are $1.50 to make it

 

[glenashley]

I've run a few scenarios but they all have us finishing 8th and playing Carlton.

 

[wian]

Geelong could play their reserves side and we will still lose to them in a fortnight.. We will s**t ourselves against them yet again unfortunately percent.. . We have to hope St Kilda beat them next week and we take care of WCE so the Geelong game is a dead rubber..

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Can someone tell me how we’re likely to finish 8th if we go 1-1 in the next 2? Struggling to understand!

Who do we want to win this weekend?

 

[Doggy]

Can someone tell me how we’re likely to finish 8th if we go 1-1 in the next 2? Struggling to understand!

Who do we want to win this weekend?

Because Sydney and Adelaide play each other and Sydney play Melbourne.

If Adelaide lose to Sydney it probably likely happens. Unless the plastics beat Carltank

 

[_Cerberus_]

Blues are safe in my opinion, even with losing their last two games. That draw is the difference between them holding a home final spot, and dropping to the bottom of the eight, that is even from swapping a few 50/50 games around all over the place. That leaves three spots remaining.

Key Games Round 23

Giants vs Bombers
Saints vs Cats
Crows vs Swans

I have the Giants, Cats and the Crows winning those games.


Key Games Round 24

Can't see Bombers or Saints beating the Pies and Lions respectively. Crows will walk all over the Eagles in Perth. Whilst Demons should beat the Swans at the SCG.

Cats vs Dogs
Giants vs Blues

Have to go by historical trends, and its the Cats for me. The last game will be a real 50/50 game if the Giants rock up, and probably the hardest to call across both rounds. I will tip Blues to beat the Suns away, though gut feel is there is a chance for an upset there. And then accounting for the Giants at the G.


Final Ladder from my predictor.

Pies
Power
Demons
Lions
Blues
Cats
Crows
Bulldogs

However, if GWS upset the Blues in the final round at the MCG. We are out of the finals. There is a very real chance that the final game of the season will determine whether us or GWS make it. Reminds me of a few years ago, I cannot remember which team, but they kept cutting back to the players watching the TV hoping the result would go their way, and they make finals. Imagine having to go through two games of emotions next weekend.

Mathematically we can finish high as 6th, and as low as 13th if we lose two games, and some teams around us have some upsets vs quality opponents. Though if we get smashed twice, and Suns have two big wins, we can even potentially finish as low as 14th. But hey, at least we'd get pick 6.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Though if we get smashed twice, and Suns have two big wins, we can even potentially finish as low as 14th. But hey, at least we'd get pick 6.

If we get smashed twice, that means the first smashing is this Sunday.
If that happens, we've got bigger issues than missing finals.

 

[Next Waiting]

Blues are safe in my opinion, even with losing their last two games. That draw is the difference between them holding a home final spot, and dropping to the bottom of the eight, that is even from swapping a few 50/50 games around all over the place. That leaves three spots remaining.

Key Games Round 23

Giants vs Bombers
Saints vs Cats
Crows vs Swans

I have the Giants, Cats and the Crows winning those games.


Key Games Round 24

Can't see Bombers or Saints beating the Pies and Lions respectively. Crows will walk all over the Eagles in Perth. Whilst Demons should beat the Swans at the SCG.

Cats vs Dogs
Giants vs Blues

Have to go by historical trends, and its the Cats for me. The last game will be a real 50/50 game if the Giants rock up, and probably the hardest to call across both rounds. I will tip Blues to beat the Suns away, though gut feel is there is a chance for an upset there. And then accounting for the Giants at the G.


Final Ladder from my predictor.

Pies
Power
Demons
Lions
Blues
Cats
Crows
Bulldogs

However, if GWS upset the Blues in the final round at the MCG. We are out of the finals. There is a very real chance that the final game of the season will determine whether us or GWS make it. Reminds me of a few years ago, I cannot remember which team, but they kept cutting back to the players watching the TV hoping the result would go their way, and they make finals. Imagine having to go through two games of emotions next weekend.

Mathematically we can finish high as 6th, and as low as 13th if we lose two games, and some teams around us have some upsets vs quality opponents. Though if we get smashed twice, and Suns have two big wins, we can even potentially finish as low as 14th. But hey, at least we'd get pick 6.

Blues are the opponent I'd want in the EF with a fully fit and available list. And a packed house at the G. Who doesn't want that? The players sure as hell should!

 

[The Inbetweener]

Adelaide v Sydney is the biggest game to keep an eye on.

If you assume other games go as expected, if Sydney win we’d only need Carlton be to GWS last game and we could afford to drop the Geelong game.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Reminds me of a few years ago, I cannot remember which team, but they kept cutting back to the players watching the TV hoping the result would go their way, and they make finals. Imagine having to go through two games of emotions next weekend.

They did this for the Dogs players in 2005, Melbourne vs Essendon.

 

[Next Waiting]

Adelaide v Sydney is the biggest game to keep an eye on.

If you assume other games go as expected, if Sydney win we’d only need Carlton be to GWS last game and we could afford to drop the Geelong game.

2 other games will also have a significant bearing on next week and possibly moreso.

If Essendon and Hawthorn both managed to beat GWS and Melbourne respectively then next week Melbourne's top 4 spot is on the line against Sydney and that game will decide 3 teams' fate including ours if we lose to the Cats as expected.

Steel yourselves! Today we're barracking for Essendon and Hawthorn to put the odds next week in our favour.

 

[Dog 36]

We can just put an end to the what ifs and beat the Cats

Oh sorry it’s the cats we just don’t beat them.What was I thinking.
And it is a game that really matters we haven’t won one this year

So back to the what ifs

 

[Dog 36]

How do the Saints impact is if they drop both ?

 

[Next Waiting]

How do the Saints impact is if they drop both ?

The only impact the Saints can have is if they win tonight. In which case, we want Sydney to beat Adelaide. Saints have Brisbane in R24 in Brisbane. Don't see them winning that because a Brisbane loss would cost them a home QF.

Essentially, today, we want Saints, Carlton, Essendon, Sydney and Hawks to win. If all of that happens, the Pies beating Essendon next Friday night all but guarantees us finals.

The final ladder would look like this



And our path would then look like this

 

[stevieg1969]

If all the faves win in the next 2 rounds we’ll finish 8th. StK and Geel basically cancel each other out and only 1 can make finals. Sydney beating the Crows is good for us as it will knock the Crows out. If the Crows win we need Sydney to lose to Melbourne next week. We also need the winner of GWS/Ess to lose next week. If we can break our 20 year KP hoodoo the above is irrelevant and we are definitely in.

 

[Next Waiting]

Saints is really the biggest game for us. The Cats can't make it if they lose tonight so we'd play a (probably) deflated Cats next week giving us our best shot at them .... almost ever. Plus I think we need to beat them down there anyway as a unifying launching pad and catalyst. It's the sort of monkey off the back watershed event that could break the shackles we've been locked in all year.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Saints is really the biggest game for us. The Cats can't make it if they lose tonight so we'd play a (probably) deflated Cats next week giving us our best shot at them .... almost ever. Plus I think we need to beat them down there anyway as a unifying launching pad and catalyst. It's the sort of monkey off the back watershed event that could break the shackles we've been locked in all year.

Very true but… it’s Geelong in Geelong.