Analysis "Since the Bye..."

[Davo23]

Carlton couldn't beat a team, Even if that team was tanking against them for three months FFS!! It definitely gave me a thumping headache.

Clarko was just enabling his mate, Bolts, to keep his coaching job.

Just trolling the Bloos!

 

[kazzooka]

GWS draw. Lose to Carlton and GC (twice!), Smith's last-second failures.

A few seconds on the GWS game, Smith kicking straight, or not losing to those basketcases, and we are likely recovering from another Prelim loss.

Probably the 4th best team over the second half of the season.

And if we won all the other games too we'd have been undefeated.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I was going to try and update my spreadsheet if we got a win this week, but the HUN have already done it for me.*




*Some people may or may not be amused to recognise that the only win carlton have had in this period was against us.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I was going to try and update my spreadsheet if we got a win this week, but the HUN have already done it for me.*

View attachment 495476


*Some people may or may not be amused to recognise that the only win carlton have had in this period was against us.

Average losing margin across those 5 games is 16 points. Not too shabby.

 

[burton5]

Average losing margin across those 5 games is 16 points. Not too shabby.

Melbourne 9th


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Melbourne 9th


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

"It's a grand old ninth, it's a high flying ninth"

 

[Thaihawk]

"It's a grand old ninth, it's a high flying ninth"

Thought the tigers had the copyright to that, Ned.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Quite a few of the "squiggle" equivalents have us finishing top 4.
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/p/below-are-aggregated-end-of-season.html

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Brant]

Quite a few of the "squiggle" equivalents have us finishing top 4.
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/p/below-are-aggregated-end-of-season.html

View attachment 495647

Oh Radelaide, what have you done...?

 

[threesixpio]

...wasn't being terribly serious about it

I like the optimism of Abasi too and generally share it I'll add.

However, I can't say that there has been a consistency from Abasi as he was a poster who, like me, seemed to suggest that it was no accident that our fortunes improved after the bye when

(a) plenty of older players were not playing which might mean that before being laid off they were either without hunger or were cooked or both and;
(b) plenty of hungry younger players stepped up a notch

I absolutely loved the latter btw

This is where I will read about how unsustainable it is for 8 players to play behind the ball. But can people seriously guarantee that the back six from the second half of the year wouldn't go up a notch after another pre-season and that it's possible that they might have coped without so many behind the ball? For me it was worth a shot - and this is perhaps MY optimism showing.

I feel like Abasi may have changed his mind a bit on this - thinking it was principally a game plan issue. The game plan definitely changed so it's not impossible.

But it's funny that people then bag the game plan for having so many players behind the ball.....um....

I think it is entirely possible that we go up a notch this year but I'm not totally convinced it will happen.

This is where people will throw a whole lot of returning players at me and call me stupid but these players were not terribly exciting in the first half of last year but yes they certainly are champions

I'm a bit non-committal tending towards optimism in terms of our chances this year but I'm less optimistic about us in years to come.

Impey was a great move if he nails it on the wing.

I'll be mortified if decent kids don't get to play this year

PS: Those posters suggesting that we shouldn't have discussed the trading of premiership players can take a good long at the totally not-awesome trade results of Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis. All Hawthorn premiers traded for bugger all due to their age. No regrets there necessarily but I cannot say that I don't have regrets in relation to the trade periods at the end of 2016 and 2017

PS: Really want to be wrong and have people bump my post and tease me incessantly for the next decade. Nothing would make me happier

Can I tease myself?

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Quite a few of the "squiggle" equivalents have us finishing top 4.
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/p/below-are-aggregated-end-of-season.html

View attachment 495647

God damn thats a good prediction. They got adelaide and melb wrong and they slightly under rated coll and ess but other than that they were nearly spot on

 

[threesixpio]

The phrase "since the bye" became a favourites of Hawk supporters during the second half of 2017, as we watched a various amount of players find their feet at AFL level, find new roles at the opposite end of the ground and some older heads re-discover their mojo.

The first half of the year was littered with performances where the team would fall away to lose by 10+ goals once momentum shifted, in stark contrast to the Hawthorn of 2016(and the many years prior). Was this a consequence of game plan? Belief? Confidence? Mental fatigue? Maybe a little of each?

What became apparent so early in the year was that the players Clarkson had such strong confidence and loyalty in were struggling to turn their poor form around and certainly the whispers from within seemed to indicate that quite a few senior players were concerned that the game plan was not helping.

Hawthorn limped its way to the bye and from what was seemingly going to be a year of disappointment and beltings, quickly came some light at the end of the tunnel.

All of a sudden the fight was back, the 'team' ethos was being followed to the last kick of the game and the results were coming.

During the second half of the year Hawthorn went on to defeat the league leading Adelaide in front of their home crowd, Sydney Swans twice, lost to Geelong by a solitary kick with seconds left and drew with an injury depleted Giants late in Launceston.

"Since the bye" Hawthorn had completely turned it around. Hawthorn were no longer the side who would give in once the margin got to 4 goals. They were buoyed by the performances of some unsung youngsters, and they were marching as one towards an unlikely finals campaign.

Ryan Burton shone, Sicily the defender emerged, Hardwick the uncompromising small surprised, Howe the lockdown midfielder rose, Glass came from seemingly nowhere. The youngsters of which Hawthorn were said to have none of were all of a sudden forming the majority of new defensive group, and subsequently lifting the side to wins which were previously considered unthinkable.

By Round 22 the finals dream was lost with a scrappy loss against Carlton, but although Hawthorn were to miss the finals for the first time in 7 years, the overall improvement in a short space of time was the silver lining to a year that earlier looked like being Annus horribilis.

In the games post-bye Hawthorn went on a run of 7 wins, 2 losses and a draw while playing against 5 of the final Top 8 sides over this same period(2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw against the eventual finalists - the same record as the highly fancied Geelong).
Only Sydney, a side who also struggled early, played against more finalists over the same period. In contrast, the 8th placed Essendon played only 2 games against top 8 clubs, and failed on both occasions.

In fact, Hawthorn were an Isaac Smith mis-kick with only seconds left and a Ryan Burton punch from having a record of 4 wins and 1 loss agains the Top 8 sides. That's footy.

Also during this time, Hawthorn had moved from being the third worst scoring side in the games up to Round 13, to the second greatest, behind the eventual Minor premiers in the 'since the bye' period, proving that their was actual data behind many Hawthorn supporter's reluctance to accept that their team was cooked and on a downward spiral - much to the displeasure of opposition fans.

With the continued development of players like Glass, Burton, Hardwick, Sicily and Brand, the return of Rioli, Birchall, Stratton, Frawley, Ceglar and the lessons learnt from May of 2017, the 'since the bye' period coupled with a slightly more favourable draw, may just turn out to be the very foundation of Hawthorn's re-entry into top 4 calculations in 2018.

View attachment 430983


* Against Top 8 - Games played from Round 14 onwards against the eventual finalists(Wins, Losses, Draws).
** Total 8 - Number of games played against the eventual finalists from Round 14 to Round 23.

Never seen such a bouncy dead cat

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

God damn thats a good prediction. They got adelaide and melb wrong and they slightly under rated coll and ess but other than that they were nearly spot on

Adelaide had a month or so where everyone seemed to get injured. It strangled their season.

 

[ACTion Hawks]

Adelaide had a month or so where everyone seemed to get injured. It strangled their season.

Wasn’t that the month after they supposedly got Creative Minds back?

 

[beta_condition]

I was going to try and update my spreadsheet if we got a win this week, but the HUN have already done it for me.*

View attachment 495476


*Some people may or may not be amused to recognise that the only win carlton have had in this period was against us.

Richmond 29-6 - 3386 -2467 - 137.25%
Sydney 24-10 - 3005-2455 - 122.40
West Coast 22-12 - 3046- 2677 - 113.78
Geelong 21-13-1 - 3158-2542 - 124.23%
Hawthorn 21-10-1 - 2889 -2466 - 117.15%
Adelaide 20-14-1
Greater Western Sydney 19-13-3
Melbourne 19-13
Collingwood 19-12-1
Port Adelaide 19-14
Essendon 18-15
North Melbourne 14-18
Western Bulldogs 13-19
Fremantle 10-22
Brisbane Lions 8-24
St Kilda 9-22
Gold Coast 5-27
Carlton 3-29

 

[Crankyhawk]

Interesting how the * supporters are starting to use the "since the bye" logic themselves (although its more "since they axed Neeld")

 

[cryptor]

Interesting how the * supporters are starting to use the "since the bye" logic themselves (although its more "since they axed Neeld")

ESSENDON EXCEPTIONALISM!!

 

[threesixpio]

ESSENDON EXCEPTIONALISM!!

Yes hawkman and I had fun with that. He deliberately lead the counter argument knowing full well they argued similar points about us last year. His posts ended up on their delusional pearlers thread. I then went on their chastising Hawkman for making these arguments and got a lot of love

We then revealed it all.

He he.

 

[threesixpio]

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/did-we-write-off-hawthorn-too-soon.1189075/page-68