Opinion Can the Hawks make finals in 2024?

[Flukey!]

I don't think we are finals bound just yet.
While our pre-season so far looks promising, I remember the same feeling this time last year.
Playing against ourselves proved to be a measure of not much.

I think 9-10 wins would be another good step forward with finals in '25.
The other measure for me is no 10 goal losses.
We need to stay in the game every week.

 

[Blackhawk42]

DIE-HARD Hawks supporter.
The vast majority of our side are kids who need time, a lot of time in most cases.
Anyway, those that think 7 wins in 2024 is a trolling insult from a dead s**t, then there is a fortune to be made. The betting agencies have us at 8.5 as under-over, so this time next year I am assuming you are all millionaires lols
(Unless, of course, two extra wins goes from a trolling insult to a learned opinion. hahaha)

Nobody is taking you seriously because in your first post you completely wrote off Mackenzie and Ward, then followed up in this second post by saying 'the majority of our side are kids who need time'.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Nobody is taking you seriously because in your first post you completely wrote off Mackenzie and Ward, then followed up in this second post by saying 'the majority of our side are kids who need time'.

It’s an alias/troll.

 

[Mitch75]

7 wins again this year would be a good result for the Hawks. Fake wins over up-coming finalists Brisbane and Collingwood mean nothing, just look at our glory three-peat premierships and who we lost to in the lead-up to finals in those years. Teams are more interested in setting up their finals assaults than a W in many of the late home and away games. The result against fellow non-finalist Fremantle is a much better indication as to where we were at.
Hawks still have massive holes in their side.
No serious key defender, McKay was a must unfortunately. Blanck tries hard, but will never be of adequate AFL standard.
No serious key forward. Lewis is far too unreliable, Chol is on his third chance (stats of such show his chances of being any good are almost zero), and Gunston is firstly not in that category and secondly well past his fabulous best.
No serious ruckman. I'd love Reeves to be good, but he is just too slow for a game that gets 10% quicker every year. He is totally ineffective once the ball hits the ground or once he's in the forward line. Liability, and although a nice centre square tap-to-advantage, those moments are rare and do not compensate for his inadequacies elsewhere. Meek a stop-gap.
Great midfield, but missing their key cog Day for the first half of the season. Newk a beauty, Worpel and Nash great role players but not much else, and I have serious doubts on both Ward and McKenzie.
Decent small forwards, Breust awesome but at the end, Butler will be fantastic, McDonals and Moore excellent, then the jury is out on both Watson and Ginnivan, both of whom I'd expect will be starting at Box hill, perhaps Ginni the sub. Hardwick will go back by half-time in the Essendon game lols.

Great to be optimistic about 2024, but optimism in this case is a long, long way from reality.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but boy, you have some interesting thoughts… not sure how you can make the call that Blanck won’t be any good as a FB after just 24 games of footy. No FB I ever recall was a gun after 24 games. They all get on the receiving end of a bag of goals at some point early in their careers, and apart from one game against Richmond where Tom Lynch kicked a bag, I don’t remember him being towelled up. McKay was not a ‘must’ by any means. Not at $850k a season. Your assessment of Reeves is pretty harsh too. Ruckman take years to develop. Of course the jury is out on the new recruits, they’re new and untested. But they represent new avenues to goal which we didn’t have last season. And as for the mids just playing their role but ‘not good at much else’, what are they supposed to be? Worpel is an elite clearance player, and even though his disposal isn’t brilliant, every clearance he gets means the opposition didn’t get one. For that alone he’s worth his weight in gold. I’d also wait till Ward, Mackenzie, Weddle and Hustwaite get 50 games or so of experience, which on talent and potential they all will, before you write any of them off. So your assessment of the playing list is not very well thought out. You’re impatient, I get it, but champion teams don’t just come up out of nowhere. We have the nucleus of a very decent team though. Score three more goals a game and concede two less goals than 2023, and we will be playing finals. On that note, I think we can win 13-14 games this year.

 

[SpanishBrowne]

“Fake wins” gave me a chuckle.

They're a form of tanking

 

[Bugs1977]

I don't think we are finals bound just yet.
While our pre-season so far looks promising, I remember the same feeling this time last year.
Playing against ourselves proved to be a measure of not much.

I think 9-10 wins would be another good step forward with finals in '25.
The other measure for me is no 10 goal losses.
We need to stay in the game every week.

Agreed which is why I think while not sexy we'll likely end up finishing close to how Freo did last season. For that to happen we'll need 3 more wins and just over an extra goal a game which as of now on paper you'd think that is very achievable. The harder part will be the points against which the jury will be out on early.

As always a good indicator of progress will be trying to get our percentage back closer to 100. The thing though confidence is one hell of a thing and if we start shocking some teams where not favoured to beat then the ceiling could be blown off along with everyones expectations.

 

[moginie]

“Fake wins” gave me a chuckle.

Yes. That and the assertion that the game gets 10% faster every year, which would mean that it's 100% faster than 2013 which it certainly isn't.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Yes. That and the assertion that the game gets 10% faster every year, which would mean that it's 100% faster than 2013 which it certainly isn't.

It's 10% faster each year but on a curve.
It's 10% from the year before, otherwise by your logic it has increased 1000% in the last 100 years

 

[hawkman]

If you actually watch those 2 games then you'll know that calling them fake wins is BS. I'm pretty sure I also saw one of the Collingwood players saying the loss wasn't a concern because they were trying different things which is BS because at that point in Rd 21 top spot wasn't sewn up for them. The facts are we bashed the knee caps off them

Could almost understand the Collingwood one. But the Brisbane in Round 13 was in the lead up to finals gave me a laugh

 

[hawkman]

Agreed which is why I think while not sexy we'll likely end up finishing close to how Freo did last season. For that to happen we'll need 3 more wins and just over an extra goal a game which as of now on paper you'd think that is very achievable. The harder part will be the points against which the jury will be out on early.

As always a good indicator of progress will be trying to get our percentage back closer to 100. The thing though confidence is one hell of a thing and if we start shocking some teams where not favoured to beat then the ceiling could be blown off along with everyones expectations.

View attachment 1899001

The 2nd half of last season was much better in that regard.

We started the season 1-8 and 60%

The last 14 games were 6-8 and 95.4%

 

[Mitch75]

The 2nd half of last season was much better in that regard.

We started the season 1-8 and 60%

The last 14 games were 6-8 and 95.4%

Yep, this. 6-8 and a percentage of 95 in the last 14 games with pretty much a two man forward line. Much more forward half potency this year and a bit more back half composure should see us win a lot more games.

 

[KermitJagger]

I love how this thread always goes back to - well we did this this year, so next year we should be incrementally better, then incrementally better. When was the last time a club got better little by little until they were challenging for a flag? I couldn't even tell you. It so rarely happens.

Either the list is good enough, and the players are there, so we can play finals - or the list isn't there and we can't.

 

[Flukey!]

Either the list is good enough, and the players are there, so we can play finals - or the list isn't there and we can't.

That statement will prove correct in one way or the other come September.

 

[parsons nose]

Looking at the pros and cons you could argue the following;

Pro’s- the bulk of our talent lies in our youth, which means there is large scope for improvement through natural progression.
We have developed some depth in some areas of the ground, which means to a limited extend we can safely cover injuries.
Con’s-
No key positional depth which means an injury to the likes Of a Lewis or Blanck is likely to leave us exposed again.
A brand new forward set up, that will take some time to gel as each component becomes aware of others running and positioning patterns.
A vast gap between our best and worst football, which is yet to be resolved.

 

[Bugs1977]

I love how this thread always goes back to - well we did this this year, so next year we should be incrementally better, then incrementally better. When was the last time a club got better little by little until they were challenging for a flag? I couldn't even tell you. It so rarely happens.

Either the list is good enough, and the players are there, so we can play finals - or the list isn't there and we can't.

I understand what you're saying but like hawkman mentions in post #359 above I think the last 14 games where we went 6/8 is a better indication of where we're at rather than the first 8 games. Yes there's always a chance we go backwards for whatever reason (ie injuries / team not gelling etc) but I watched every game last season (yes even the blowouts) and I just think the fact that we dominated the centre clearances for the majority of the year but we unfortunately just didn't have the quality up front to turn those games where we either just lost or just won into games that we can put teams away comprehensively. If the forward line gels quickly then I see no reason why we don't win more games than we lose. We also have a fair few kids approaching the 50-60 game mark and history shows this is when things turn in a good way but yes I agree that expectations should always be tempered.

 

[Slainte]

More fake wins in 2024 please

We also need to reduce the fake losses - of which there were way too many in 2023.

 

[HedgeFund]

I love how this thread always goes back to - well we did this this year, so next year we should be incrementally better, then incrementally better. When was the last time a club got better little by little until they were challenging for a flag? I couldn't even tell you. It so rarely happens.

Either the list is good enough, and the players are there, so we can play finals - or the list isn't there and we can't.

Since 2018 - 2023

Carlton 18th - 16 - 11 - 13 - 9 - 5th

St Kilda 16th - 14 - 6 - 10 - 10 - 6th

 

[moginie]

It's 10% faster each year but on a curve.
It's 10% from the year before, otherwise by your logic it has increased 1000% in the last 100 years

Not my logic. And no matter what, his assertion is wrong.

 

[KermitJagger]

Since 2018 - 2023

Carlton 18th - 16 - 11 - 13 - 9 - 5th

St Kilda 16th - 14 - 6 - 10 - 10 - 6th

That's not incremental. They're both extremely volatile placings and both clubs have had multiple coaches in those years.

 

[burger09]

I love how this thread always goes back to - well we did this this year, so next year we should be incrementally better, then incrementally better. When was the last time a club got better little by little until they were challenging for a flag? I couldn't even tell you. It so rarely happens.

Either the list is good enough, and the players are there, so we can play finals - or the list isn't there and we can't.

Clarkson takes over hawks-

Year 1 =5 wins
Year 2 = 9 wins
Year 3 = 13 wins
Year 4 = 17 wins and a Premiership!

 

[peetoo]

Clarkson takes over hawks-

Year 1 =5 wins
Year 2 = 9 wins
Year 3 = 13 wins
Year 4 = 17 wins and a Premiership!

Year 5 to 11 too

 

[HedgeFund]

That's not incremental. They're both extremely volatile placings and both clubs have had multiple coaches in those years.

If the Blues had finished 14th not 11th in 2020 its the perfect example of incremental improvement.

It’s not rare for clubs to improve slowly over the years. There may be a year of regression or a burst and then drop back but to suggest clubs sit low for years and then suddenly burst into the finals is….frankly not based on fact.

 

[KermitJagger]

If the Blues had finished 14th not 11th in 2020 its the perfect example of incremental improvement.

It’s not rare for clubs to improve slowly over the years. There may be a year of regression or a burst and then drop back but to suggest clubs sit low for years and then suddenly burst into the finals is….frankly not based on fact.

The point is there's no pattern. In fact there's more examples of what you're saying isn't based in fact:

Brisbane 2012 - 2018
Fremantle 2016 - 2021
Collingwood 2014 - 2017
WBD 2011 - 2014

All those clubs were bad and stagnated in the same few spots on the ladder before jumping up a huge amount of spots.

There are also clubs who never really left the 8 in that time, or did for a year or two, and there are clubs who rarely ever make the 8.

The Hawthorn example from over a decade ago is the only true example of a team getting incrementally better year on year before a flag, and even then it happened way quicker than we thought it would which is why we struggled afterwards.

 

[cryptor]

I understand what you're saying but like hawkman mentions in post #359 above I think the last 14 games where we went 6/8 is a better indication of where we're at rather than the first 8 games. Yes there's always a chance we go backwards for whatever reason (ie injuries / team not gelling etc) but I watched every game last season (yes even the blowouts) and I just think the fact that we dominated the centre clearances for the majority of the year but we unfortunately just didn't have the quality up front to turn those games where we either just lost or just won into games that we can put teams away comprehensively. If the forward line gels quickly then I see no reason why we don't win more games than we lose. We also have a fair few kids approaching the 50-60 game mark and history shows this is when things turn in a good way but yes I agree that expectations should always be tempered.

Exactly it. It may seem selective to just ignore the results of the first half of the season but when Fergus Greene (187cm) is playing a KPF role each week it's simply not representative of the 2024 team that now has Lewis, Chol and Gunston as experienced KPF to select from each week.

(And no slight on Fergus, he did an incredibly good job in very trying conditions)

 

[Dipper]

Yes. That and the assertion that the game gets 10% faster every year, which would mean that it's 100% faster than 2013 which it certainly isn't.

It's actually worse than that because if it's 10% each year then it's compounding so it would be twice as fast as about 7.5 years ago.