Skippos's Final 2014 Phantom Draft

[grundog49]

Jack Gunston is a considerably smarter forward. I haven't seen a huge amount of Mitch - but from what I have seen I'd almost look at him as a 6'3 version of a poor man's Justin Westhoff with his ability to leap and pluck without crashing packs and the way he roams and can intercept down back. He is a lot like a smaller Jeremy, too.

Harry Dear gives options. I'm not sure he's ever gonna be a full time ruck but he showed enough glimpses to indicate he was draftable. I'm mortified we picked him over Reece McKenzie though. As a forward he's got a good mix of athleticism and power. I certainly preferred him to the more favoured Cripps types. I'd like to see if he'd go well down back as he's got a nice mix to indicate he might. A slightly smaller poor man's Charlie Dixon would be my comparison.

Wigg can kick I agree but has zero inside game. His outside game isn't flash either - he is literally sought out at junior level due to his boot - players look for him. Unlike a lot of outside receivers who while I agree are seagulls, work to find the outside receive, Wigg is fed the ball wide instead of working into a position to receive the ball. I don't feel his running patterns are strong nor is his ability to accumulate which I'd want out of someone with his boot. I won't get started about his defensive qualities. My comparison for him would be a Sam Colquhoun or poor man's Nick Suban.

An Adelaide program could really develop Harrison wigg by taking him under Brodie Smiths wing.

I'm a little mythed about why we would not take Recce McKenzie. Harry Dear is he is some what like his father could be good.

Mitch was an interesting decision but I could see why we would take him. He is athletic and skillful in the air and on the ground which is a pain to matchup on in defence.

 

[TheHoneyBadger]

Sheesh! You are setting your expectations WAY too high. I like McGovern as a 2nd/3rd tall swingman with his leap and marking ability and will probably be a solid contributor. Dear doesn't dominate in the ruck or down forward and I can't see him becoming anything more than a reserve ruck. Wing has an irresistible boot, however I'm not a fan of his workrate to get the ball and feel he waits for others to give him it so he can use his boot. If he can work on getting into better positions he will be a very good back flanker/winger. Jake Lever is a star in the making if he can stay injury free. Talia Lever Jenkins Walker will be a very nice spine for years to come.

They're just player comparisons, suggesting that they share traits and mannerisms - by no means is he suggesting they'll reach the heights that the likes of Gunston, Hawkins and Mitchell have.

I'd be very, very happy with Jake Lever at 14. I'm a huge fan, I'll be watching his development closely.

 

[Skippos]

The difference between style and comparison is really important to note. Style is pretty much 'this player plays in a similar way and shares some key traits with the bloke, but it's certainly not expected that he'll reach the same heights' whereas comparison is more 'these players might share some traits but moreso they're going to have relatively similar careers in a similar role.'

 

[Shuperman]

Hey Skip, how much of a chance would you guess Duggan is to become an A grade mid?

 

[Skippos]

Hey Skip, how much of a chance would you guess Duggan is to become an A grade mid?

It's all speculative but I'd say about 20-30%

 

[Shuperman]

It's all speculative but I'd say about 20-30%

Thanks Skip, I really like your analysis of the players as I can agree with the comparisons (less of this "poor mans" stuff) and you show just enough enthusiasm without overlooking the flaws. Hopeful Duggan can have the Dal Santo impact in his first season but end up more like a Cotchin.

 

[Wizard17]

Skippos what do you think of Read as a second ruck/forward with Campbell looking like he'll be the no 1 and question marks on A. Cordy do you thi k he could fill a sort of Hale role?

 

[Skippos]

Skippos what do you think of Read as a second ruck/forward with Campbell looking like he'll be the no 1 and question marks on A. Cordy do you thi k he could fill a sort of Hale role?

I think any player this late is incredibly speculative and recruiting him with the intention of him developing into a best 22 player is probably going to see you disappointed.

There's a chance he makes it but it's only a chance. I like him but the odds are still against him. I'd be looking at him as a ruck who can play forward. Poor man's Bellchambers.

 

[Bicks]

Skip, given we didn't address our needs for speed in the National Draft your thoughts on taking Tom Wilkinson in the rookie draft, numbers in the TAC Comp look very good including a heap of handball receives which says he's got a good outside game, and 30 possession BOG performance in the U18's State Comp against WA, looks to be a better option than local Markov who has been mentioned, much more "natural" football nous and ability as well as being very quick and athletic.

 

[Skippos]

Skip, given we didn't address our needs for speed in the National Draft your thoughts on taking Tom Wilkinson in the rookie draft, numbers in the TAC Comp look very good including a heap of handball receives which says he's got a good outside game, and 30 possession BOG performance in the U18's State Comp against WA, looks to be a better option than local Markov who has been mentioned, much more "natural" football nous and ability as well as being very quick and athletic.

I'd lean towards picking Wilkinson. Markov has the athleticism over Wilkinson but I think Wilkinson's a better footballer. Would have to look at R1 as I suspect Hawthorn won't let him slip out of the first round.

 

[Skippos]

With Phil's death I didn't get on at all on draft day to reflect the late mail (for me it would have seen Duggan -> 11, Wright -> 8, Marchbank -> 6/7 and depending how late I was on Cockatoo -> 10) but still managed to have the best correlation co-efficient of the phantom drafters here - something I'm very pleased about given the lack of knowledge I have about predicting; it's the profiles that matter for me.

credit: /u/aditrs of reddit

Thought it'd be interesting reading though. Shows how far ahead EQ is compared to everyone.

 

[Chaisa]

How come Eloquentia and Skippos are different

 

[Skippos]

How come Eloquentia and Skippos are different

Person doing the system clearly wasn't aware of my super secret identity. The 'Skippos' updated his a little later with a small change which distorted it.

 

[Chaisa]

Sorry for the bump skippos, but from what you know, which players have you overrated and underrated in this draft?

 

[Skippos]

Sorry for the bump skippos, but from what you know, which players have you overrated and underrated in this draft?

Underrated:
Lukas Webb - I'd seen a bit but wasn't sold. Should have been, he's good.
Bailey Dale - rated him outside the top 60 by virtue of no exposure. He too is good.
Cory Gregson - had him around 65. Seen a good bit of him and he didn't particularly impress. Was wrong
Jack Lonie - wasn't sure he had the tools to be a top notch small forward. Still not, but he's better than how I rated him
Really O'Brien - I looked at him as a meh key defender. He's turning into a good ruck
Jason Castagna - rated him low 60s on draft day but has him 25-45 most of the year. Think my initial assessment was correct
Touk Miller - undersized inside mids I always underrate. Expected miller to make the grade but not to smash it. He's impressed me more than any other draftee bar Lever thus far
Jaden McGrath - rated him 46, a reduction due to injury. I rated him higher than most but even that wasn't enough.
Harris Andrews - had him 30 odd. Now it's clear he's better than that
Dan McKenzie - had him 25, he's better than that
Caleb Marchbank - I think my initial assess,met was a bit off. He's not #6 but probably more of a 10-15 for mine as opposed to my initial rating of 21
Jordan De Goey - in hindsight I'd have him the second best mid in the crop behind CP
Jake Lever - rated him 6. He's better than that

Overrated: - it's a lot harder to judge these this early as players need time to develop
Bampton - hasn't done anything at league level this year. Initial assessment looks wrong.
Brayshaw - he's going to be good but I expected more from him early
Laverde - think I was a little high on him, he's still very raw
Langford - didn't rate him at all and to be honest, I think 27 was even too high

Of course I'd have small adjustments too but they're not worth talking about.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Your comment on degoey being the second best mid in the draft, Heeney #1?

 

[Skippos]

Your comment on degoey being the second best mid in the draft, Heeney #1?

Open draft. Petracca 1, Heeney 2, JDG 3.

Basing my rating of CP on how I rated him in last year, obviously I'll re evaluate next year.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Brayshaw read your post and responded a bit yesterday. I think he had been ok but really lucky to get games, when playing so far he had been tackling well which was from what I gathered a highlight of his game, yesterday he put together 20 touches so I think he will be fine

 

[Skippos]

Brayshaw read your post and responded a bit yesterday. I think he had been ok but really lucky to get games, when playing so far he had been tackling well which was from what I gathered a highlight of his game, yesterday he put together 20 touches so I think he will be fine

Yup. I was thinking at half time that he's just affirmed everything I said but his Q4 was immense. He's clearly better on the ball than wings or flanks.

I don't doubt that he'll be good. However Im unsure that he's goimg to be elite. Kind of a perennial top 3-5 in the best and fairest and maybe in the AA 40 once or twice but never a superstar. I guess he's the dependable type that'll always put out but I've still yet to see him really hurt and nominate like the truly elite do.

He's good, and Q4 just confirmed that he's got a lot to work with. But im not sure he's goign superstar potential like CP does.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

I think you have summed him up well, he maybe seems a lot Daniel cross like to me, will do all the team things but maybe doesn't have the true cieling I was hoping for, still has been drafted and not missed a game in his Short career could be anything. Edit - I think he had more tricks than cross just has to put it together

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Sorry to bump this again on you skippos but a very impressive fournight from Brayshaw, maybe marked him down a bit soon?

 

[Skippos]

Sorry to bump this again on you skippos but a very impressive fournight from Brayshaw, maybe marked him down a bit soon?

Was only judging what I'd seen at the time - that could perhaps be attributed to his limited run in.

His last three weeks have been nothing short of superb, though - and as such I'm certainly open to amending my judgment of him. I still see some super things in De Goey but Brayshaw's composure and skills have been a level or two above I expected from him - they were always okay-fair but they've been exceptional.

He's certainly a keeper.

 

[Jack Richards]

Difference between Quayle and the rest is that she actually follows these kids closely. In an open draft she has him at #1 and Wright at number 2 (based on talent)

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Have you seen any of Peter wright in his 2-3 games so far? Really took a while to get te opportunity even considering GC injuries?

 

[Jack Richards]

Have you seen any of Peter wright in his 2-3 games so far? Really took a while to get te opportunity even considering GC injuries?

I have and he held his own with 12 Goals in 7 games in the NEAFL in a team with blow ins. Dont forget talls take longer. There are plenty of reasons why kids aren't getting games in the seniors. Many just development choice.

But BASED on pure talent he is arguably the 2nd best players in that draft. I back Quayle's judgement on kids. She very rarely gets it wrong.