Spring Racing

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Loooooooooooooooooooool

dat acclimatisation

Only horse in the field that should be longer price than WhoShot TheBarman.

 

[yaco55]

- Fawkner - Liked him for the Coz Plate since the beginning of his preparation - Actually have The Cleaner in the field is a bonus for Fawkner, as this will allow Fawkner to settle back further in the field in which he is most effective. have a knock on Scared Falls as I doubt he runs a strong 2000.

- Caulfield Cup - Like Rising Romance - Respect the Japanese but they are better suited at Flemington over 3200.

- Melbourne Cup - Still like Bande, though he's out of the running if he wins the CC.

- Caulfield Guineas - One thing I suspected and verified after the race is that if you take on Rich Enuff your race will suffer - Read Almalad - Think Almalad is a touch over-rated but can do better if ridden back. Shooting to Win is a nice horse and I can see him winning a WFA over 1500m in the Spring.

- Victorian Derby - Hampton Court was super impressive in the way he finished off his race - he was impressive the previous week when he got out late to win the Dulcify. Looks like he will run a strong 2500. This new race the Spring Classic will be a good pointer.

 

[iluvparis]

I thought the same about Dandino's form until i saw this today from The Hoss:

View attachment 86497

Sounds as if he's settled in well and working well here again.

Has been awful in Europe this year - couldn't back on his European form.

Have to guess that coming to Australia has turned his form around which is not my style. Would be a Treve like turnaround if he did. I guess you could argue Mount Athos and Red Cadeaux did similar last year (massive Oz runs after being well held for most of the European season).

 

[Keystone agony]

Are the Europeans riding cold over there, to get good weights?

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Little bit of form study from today:

The only Aussie/Kiwi horses ill be entraining as 'live chances' will be: Lucia Valentina, Rising Romance, The Offer and Big Memory. Will probably back the later two and use them as 1st and 2nd's in F4's with some internationals.

After bagging the living shit out of Who Shot TheBarman for the past two weeks i won't say hopeless with the prospect of a fast run race, class factor wise he has no hope but will enjoy the trip and a solid tempo. Green Moon, if he's over whatever the hell went wrong in the Turnball is another who will be suited by a fast tempo and longer trip. Will use both at the minor end of some F4's.

Im happy to totally dismiss these, mainly for strong tempo and distance issues: Dear Demi, Junoob, Hawkspur, Moriarty, Stipulate, Gris Caro, Sea Mn

Will delve into the internationals a bit more tomorrow, on holidays for the next two weeks.

 

[iluvparis]

Surely Big Memory goes into the same class category as Who Shot The Barman.

Unless they are putting fences up for this year's edition I couldn't entertain him.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

You really hate The Cleaner and any form surrounding him dont you iluvparis ?

Believe it or not, i think the JRA cup is decent form and a good reference point for this race, as in fast run race, who can handle it and who were the closers. Big Memory's performance in that race lead me into to him last week, yes, its a quantum leap in class, but i think the distance won't be a worry at all and with 50 kgs i see no reason to drop off now. Was outstaying them on the line in the Herbert Power last week (watch the replay closely, pulling away at the end) and the apparent MC fav ( ) came out of that same race.

He's fit and ready to rock and roll, got a sense of timing and a bit of Southern Speed about him for mine. Not declaring him by any means, but he will be over $20 come race day so id be more than happy to pay to find out.

 

[Jugada]

A little bit happy to hear My Ambivalent has a stone bruise and will be pushing it to be fit for Saturday. Would make things easier for Bande for sure if she wasn't there

 

[sethlad]

A little bit happy to hear My Ambivalent has a stone bruise and will be pushing it to be fit for Saturday. Would make things easier for Bande for sure if she wasn't there

Normally would agree however did find it when markets went up.
Looks like the overs god has arrived early this year

seth

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Surely Big Memory goes into the same class category as Who Shot The Barman.

Unless they are putting fences up for this year's edition I couldn't entertain him.

Oh and just in case you think BM and TO are my top two, I'm not saying that at all, i haven't looked very far into the internationals yet, just giving my thoughts on the ones we have seen run here. BM, TO (for value reason top two) with LV and RR.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Normally would agree however did find it when markets went up.
Looks like the overs god has arrived early this year

seth

Are you able to shed any light on what the hell was wrong with Bande last week, Seth?

 

[sethlad]

Are you able to shed any light on what the hell was wrong with Bande last week, Seth?

All i know is he spiked a temp & was off colour for 36 hrs.Not ideal for CC prep but a lot better than some of the wild rumours.
He looked fine Sat at Caulfield

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Oh and just in case you think BM and TO are my top two, I'm not saying that at all, i haven't looked very far into the internationals yet, just giving my thoughts on the ones we have seen run here. BM, TO (for value reason top two) with LV and RR.

More saying its hypocritical to slag of Who Shot The Bar Man and then suggest BM has a chance - I would have thought they are in the exact same class 'type'. (FWIW I would rather slag off both ).

Chat over here is that Ambivalent will now head straight to Flemington.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

More saying its hypocritical to slag of Who Shot The Bar Man and then suggest BM has a chance - I would have thought they are in the exact same class 'type'. (FWIW I would rather slag off both ).

Chat over here is that Ambivalent will now head straight to Flemington.

Surely you jest, surely?

Signoff, The Cleaner, Mourinho, Lets Make a Deal and Protectionest is much better form than Jacquinot Bay, Marksmanship and Anudjwan. Group 2 and 3 horses vs non favourite Country Cup types, not even close.

Not to mention if BM doesn't crab walk the corner last week (which McEvoy says he has never done before) he wins by a space.

The better form line is also a better price.

 

[Matty_G]

Fingers, toes and everything in between crossed something else comes out. Have Lidari at $101.

 

[iluvparis]

Surely you jest, surely?

Signoff, The Cleaner, Mourinho, Lets Make a Deal and Protectionest is much better form than Jacquinot Bay, Marksmanship and Anudjwan. Group 2 and 3 horses vs non favourite Country Cup types, not even close.

Not to mention if BM doesn't crab walk the corner last week (which McEvoy says he has never done before) he wins by a space.

The better form line is also a better price.

As I said - if there were fences being layed out he would have excellent form

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

As I said - if there were fences being layed out he would have excellent form

You have inspired me to pick a horse to use as my avatar each week of the Carnival.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Just out of interest, Paris, or anyone else for that matter, what did you make the horse my old man's in, Hipster Girl's run in the Manifold?

Thought it was huge, when he told me an Oaks Moral 4 weeks ago i laughed, didn't put a cracker on, now i see its 17-1 (he's on at 150-1 ), still a maiden but not for much longer. Crafty still the one to beat i think but will be competitive if she gets there.

 

[Jugada]

Just out of interest, Paris, or anyone else for that matter, what did you make the horse my old man's in, Hipster Girl's run in the Manifold?

Thought it was huge, when he told me an Oaks Moral 4 weeks ago i laughed, didn't put a cracker on, now i see its 17-1 (he's on at 150-1 ), still a maiden but not for much longer. Crafty still the one to beat i think but will be competitive if she gets there.

Loved the run. Crafty was my pick out of the race going towards the Oaks but she was next best out of the race

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Loved the run. Crafty was my pick out of the race going towards the Oaks but she was next best out of the race

Yep, agree, just wanted to make sure i wasn't looking at it through rose coloured glasses, i think the old man has been walking around with a hard on ever since.

 

[plays tall 1]

Normally would agree however did find it when markets went up.
Looks like the overs god has arrived early this year

seth

Same here. Life is cruel!

TAB offered crazy $201 in first market. Must have thought it was the NSW galloper by same name.

 

[Jugada]

My Ambivalent officially ruled out of the Caulfield Cup

 

[RWnBluey]

Lidari was still $41 this morning. Can't find anything better than $26 now. dang.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

My Ambivalent officially ruled out of the Caulfield Cup

Haha, was up burning some midnight oil last night and he was the pick out of the internationals for mine.

Not convinced this will be as harder run CC as people imagine (especially now wit MA out)

Admire Rakti: the class but i think he is much better suited over a longer distance, seems to be like a Truck on the track, very slowly but surely through his gears. Not for me in this race, better suited to Melbourne Cup but a blow out chance if they decide to go mental up front for some reason.

Bande: Pretty lethal turn of foot albeit at a weaker level than AR, has a touch of the Lucia Valentina's about him. The way he races (just off the speed with cover) would be perfect for this race with a turn of foot like that. Can see why the hype but any set back during a lead up has me hesitant of putting the dollars on.

Dandino: Runs in USA were very encouraging and his 2nd in the St. Ledger was excellent, really like how he raced there, midfield! Got too far back in the CC last year but rattled home, if he draws a decent barrier today id love to see similar tactics used as they did against Pizza Man, stalking the dangers, Bande and LV, i could see him wearing them down in the last 100m being the superior stayer.

Seismos: May give a little cheek up front but he needs further looking at the film, much further, more than Melbourne Cup further. Seems a one batter, the only one of the four remaining i can confidently say no winning hope.

So with my top international from the CC scratched I'm left with this order:

1. Dandino
2. Bande
3. Admire Rakti
4. Seismos.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Lidari was still $41 this morning. Can't find anything better than $26 now. dang.

Still think that is pretty good value, easily one of the better local hopes.

Brambles would be right up the top with me if he managed to sneak in as well.

He's going to the David Jones Cup on Saturday if he doesn't get in. <reaches into back pocket to check wallet for cash>