Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

[chazwazza]

Your club has players who weren't born yet to see your last flag mind you

Your club has teenagers born in 2000 that are still paying for therapy from when they were 7. Probably why they can't afford to attend games and your crowds are dwindling.

 

[chazwazza]

Haha thanks WTF, but your fellow supporters just called me scum and told me to piss off from their board, so apparently I'm still very Port supporter-like even if it's not super obvious

You know you liked it.

 

[chazwazza]

Adelaide has just given a right elbow in the head to Geelong, bit like Joel Selwood trying to evade a tackle and getting a free for it.

 

[Suma Magic]

I find it odd that Crows supporters don't point out that they have more flags than Port when Port fans point out the time since '98.

 

[Brasher]

I find it odd that Crows supporters don't point out that they have more flags than Port when Port fans point out the time since '98.

Because Port supporters just point out their 163 SANFL Premierships.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I find it odd that Crows supporters don't point out that they have more flags than Port when Port fans point out the time since '98.

I find it more fun to point out 2007. Just the mention of 119 can be enough to trigger some Power supporters.

 

[blitzer]

The tower of power is so fascinating at this stage of the year with so many teams struggling for a spot in the eight and the whole ladder being so close. Its just really nice to see a visual representation of where you will finish and the likelihood. Plus this year it seems that only really first place is locked in at this stage (or close to it).

 

[GreyCrow]

I find it odd that Crows supporters don't point out that they have more flags than Port when Port fans point out the time since '98.

This thread isnt the place for that

 

[drazah]

Because Port supporters just point out their 163 SANFL Premierships.

I thought we won 119 SANFL premierships? Isn't that why everyone always says "119" to us? To congratulate us on our many first class premierships?

 

[legend166]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

2016: Thrashed North Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval last year and then barely put up a fight against us the week after.
2015: A good win away against the Dogs at the MCG and then demolished by Hawthorn to the tune of 74 points.
2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

And as discussed, back in the 05/06 years where it was a pretty big choke job to not even make the Grand Final in either year (thankfully for the Swans since they were our bogey side).

I can see it go either way - the poor finishes to the 15 & 16 seasons could give them the impetus they need to go further, or it could play on their minds. Similar to the Swans - if by some miracle we make the Grand Final again do the losses in 14 & 16 give us the hunger or do they make us freeze up?

You'd have to say if they don't make the Grand Final this year it would be a disappointment, right? At that stage you've got to wonder if they can get over the hump, finals in 12, 15, 16 & 17 including two top four finishes without a GF appearance. Would sorta remind me of the Bulldogs of 09-11.

 

[Caj]

You only need fear Sydney if you go into a grand final complacent.

That's a really fair call

We look to have a bit more mongrel in us this year and I'd hope that translates to harder, never say die football should we manage to make the grand final this year

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

2016: Thrashed North Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval last year and then barely put up a fight against us the week after.
2015: A good win away against the Dogs at the MCG and then demolished by Hawthorn to the tune of 74 points.
2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

And as discussed, back in the 05/06 years where it was a pretty big choke job to not even make the Grand Final in either year (thankfully for the Swans since they were our bogey side).

I can see it go either way - the poor finishes to the 15 & 16 seasons could give them the impetus they need to go further, or it could play on their minds. Similar to the Swans - if by some miracle we make the Grand Final again do the losses in 14 & 16 give us the hunger or do they make us freeze up?

You'd have to say if they don't make the Grand Final this year it would be a disappointment, right? At that stage you've got to wonder if they can get over the hump, finals in 12, 15, 16 & 17 including two top four finishes without a GF appearance. Would sorta remind me of the Bulldogs of 09-11.

Totally agree. The Crows chances come down to whether their game plan can actually stand up to finals football. The Swans have embarrassed us at home in 2012 and away in 2016 the last 2 times we've played them in a final (as did Hawthorn in 2015).

I feel like the coaches have adjusted the game plan a little now so that it isn't so reliant on getting "out the back" to score goals (those sorts of goals are much less common now, despite what you may read on BigFooty). They've also had to adjust to teams leaving 1 or 2 "goalkeepers" in their back line to stop those "out the back" goals.

So I feel like our game plan is much better placed to withstand finals football, but there is only one way that we'll know for sure.

 

[Crom]

2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

 

[baldandbroke]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

Not wanting to be too defensive ... but:

2005 / 2006 - hit the juiced up WC in the Prelims
2012 - nearly beat the Hawks and the umps in the Prelim (not the right in front of me game - that was the Pies in the semi in 09)
2015 - had a pretty big year emotionally (Walsh) and ran out of juice
2016 - got done in the semi by a better team (who went on to smash the Cats the next week, then lose in the GF)

Look at the other teams in the mix and there isn't much good in there either outside of Sydney:

Adelaide - last 4 finals series, are 4 wins / 5 losses
Cats - since winning the flag in 2011, are 2 wins / 6 losses in the finals
GWS - first finals series last year are 1 win / 1 loss
Richmond - well documented, have lost their last 7 finals
Sydney - since winning the flag in 2012, are 5 wins / 7 losses in the finals (including two GF)

I think last year's game against the Swans was very ordinary, but I doubt we would have rolled over the Cats like Sydney did so really don't see that as a huge opportunity missed. This year on the other hand we are a better team, that is competing with the teams in the top 8 pretty well.

I reckon Titus nailed it when he said:

It makes me think if Adelaide are top of the ladder and just belted second, could they be favourites to win a premiership? I know it’s counterintuitive as they’re not from Victoria and aren’t in 7th place or below.
​

 

[VictorianCrow85]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

2016: Thrashed North Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval last year and then barely put up a fight against us the week after.
2015: A good win away against the Dogs at the MCG and then demolished by Hawthorn to the tune of 74 points.
2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

And as discussed, back in the 05/06 years where it was a pretty big choke job to not even make the Grand Final in either year (thankfully for the Swans since they were our bogey side).

I can see it go either way - the poor finishes to the 15 & 16 seasons could give them the impetus they need to go further, or it could play on their minds. Similar to the Swans - if by some miracle we make the Grand Final again do the losses in 14 & 16 give us the hunger or do they make us freeze up?

You'd have to say if they don't make the Grand Final this year it would be a disappointment, right? At that stage you've got to wonder if they can get over the hump, finals in 12, 15, 16 & 17 including two top four finishes without a GF appearance. Would sorta remind me of the Bulldogs of 09-11.

Bit of an over reaction in my opinion. Maybe a fair view point externally if you don't really pay lots of attention to the Crows but if you look a bit deeper...

Winning a final in a year where our coach got murdered half way through was a damn good effort, in fact just making finals was an over achievement in most peoples eyes since we were widely expected to miss finals preseason. Sure Sydney flogged us on their home deck last year but they did even worse to Geelong on the MCG away from home so as far as I see it we were just not a good enough side last year. We cost ourselves potentially when we squandered our chance at top 2 in the last round which *may* have helped even things up a fraction but reality is our form simply wasn't good enough anyway. It may have appeared much better than it was late last year because we had a soft draw leading up to finals so beat up on ordinary sides. I would have hoped for a better effort still but it was extremely unlikely we were ever going to topple Sydney who were just a better side especially at the SCG.

Looking back further than that is mostly pointless to me. Dwelling on the past with a wildly different list and coach isn't that relevant to today's squad. Had we still the same coach and mostly the same core of players it might hold more relevance as it could with Sydney. (mostly based on the Longmire factor whose fundamentals and game style are mostly still intact)

I'm optimistic we are building, showing improvement each year. At this point in time you'd have to suggest we have a chance at reaching the big dance (as do many other sides, ours mildly higher based only on ladder position at this point in time) but really that's getting too far ahead of ourselves so I can't really say that not reaching the grand final is a disgrace yet. Season isn't even over and anything can happen in the last few rounds with our draw being relatively tough. It's more about improving our game and this year building our form into finals this time round rather than losing it as that's what will determine how far we can go.

The one thing I will really be looking for come finals this year is just that we are hungry for the contest rather than play nice clean football. For me the form over the last 3 weeks in particular seems to be heading that direction which is more encouraging than the same time last year.

See how we go and I'll revisit these thoughts in due course.

 

[Animus]

Sorry but I have never bought into the excuse about Phil Walsh. Sure the next game or even the next month but I would be extremely disappointed if my club couldnt get up mentally for a final regardless of the events of months prior.

As I said, if it had happened just prior to the finals Id give it some credence but its just an excuse to cover up our mistakes of that season.

We need to give it up.

 

[hotkorma]

This might be one of the only feel good threads in this entire site. Minimal baiting, nitpicking and general whinging, with maximum banter and self-deprecation. I blame this entirely on Final Siren for setting the tone, making this a thoroughly enjoyable weekly read. I also confess that I only look upwards when seeing Essendon on the tower of power and will go into hibernation when we lose.

 

[legend166]

Yeah, I mean maybe I'm overreacting since Adelaide have had two poor finals losses to my side in recent years, but I do think the way they went out in 2015 & 16 was disappointing. A 74 point loss to Hawthorn in 15 and a 36 point loss to us last year.

 

[VictorianCrow85]

Yeah, I mean maybe I'm overreacting since Adelaide have had two poor finals losses to my side in recent years, but I do think the way they went out in 2015 & 16 was disappointing. A 74 point loss to Hawthorn in 15 and a 36 point loss to us last year.

I don't disagree at all the manner of the losses was disappointing, it would have been nice to put up a better effort and at least make the sides earn it. Mostly the point I'm making is that Adelaide has been a work in progress & not really a powerhouse or complete side like Hawthorn and Sydney have been. Certainly want to see better performances this year and I do tend to think we'll get them. Whether that means a grand final I don't know, time will tell.

 

[Final Siren]

I'd be interested to see a "confidence rating" for the tower of power ie. what's a measure of the dispersion of the predictions? It seems like other than Adelaide finishing top, squiggle isn't much more sure about who is going to finish where than it has been for a few weeks now (and it's much less sure about who's going to finish bottom). One would think that it would become more certain as the season progresses, but maybe that isn't the case.

I've been thinking about it tonight, but haven't quite cracked how you would measure this.

It does become more certain as the season progresses, but it still can't be very certain. Even if there's only one game left in the season, if that's a 50/50 match and it's going to affect your ladder placing, you can only be 50% confident of finishing in any particular place.

Tower is overconfident, though, especially at the start of the season, because it doesn't do enough to account for the likelihood that teams get better or worse over time. Instead, it mostly assumes that it has everyone roughly pegged for the whole year, and allows for variation around that point.

What's tripped me up here is the fact that you can tip quite accurately months in advance - or at least not a whole lot less accurately than normal. So it seemed reasonable to build that idea into the Tower, the knowledge that it would still be able to confidently tip games far in the future. But this doesn't quite work, because with regular tips, it's swings and roundabouts: you don't know who will get better and who will get worse, so it's equally likely that any divergence from expectation will help you or hurt you. But for Tower, every divergence is bad, because it means it should be less confident.

Here in Round 18, Tower is probably about right, because there isn't much time left for a team to abruptly get better or worse. But early in the year, teams should be a lot more vertical, as they're capable of plausibly finishing in many different spots.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

It does become more certain as the season progresses, but it still can't be very certain. Even if there's only one game left in the season, if that's a 50/50 match and it's going to affect your ladder placing, you can only be 50% confident of finishing in any particular place.

Tower is overconfident, though, especially at the start of the season, because it doesn't do enough to account for the likelihood that teams get better or worse over time. Instead, it mostly assumes that it has everyone roughly pegged for the whole year, and allows for variation around that point.

What's tripped me up here is the fact that you can tip quite accurately months in advance - or at least not a whole lot less accurately than normal. So it seemed reasonable to build that idea into the Tower, the knowledge that it would still be able to confidently tip games far in the future. But this doesn't quite work, because with regular tips, it's swings and roundabouts: you don't know who will get better and who will get worse, so it's equally likely that any divergence from expectation will help you or hurt you. But for Tower, every divergence is bad, because it means it should be less confident.

Here in Round 18, Tower is probably about right, because there isn't much time left for a team to abruptly get better or worse. But early in the year, teams should be a lot more vertical, as they're capable of plausibly finishing in many different spots.

Yeah, it's not like Adelaide could miss a top 4 spot from here.

 

[Vooligan]

Adelaide missing the Top 2 from here would require something extraordinary, like when Adelaide missed Top 4 last year, or Adelaide failed to finish 1st in 2006. Actually, Adelaide does this a lot. But those are coincidences, probably.

Gee, thanks for the reminder... And people wonder why I get nervous about my team. 2006 still burns a deep hole inside, thanks Eagles.

 

[NikkiNoo]

I wonder if Adelaide will be able to break their relatively poor finals performances of recent years. When you go through their recent history, they've had some pretty disappointing performances.

2016: Thrashed North Melbourne at the Adelaide Oval last year and then barely put up a fight against us the week after.
2015: A good win away against the Dogs at the MCG and then demolished by Hawthorn to the tune of 74 points.
2012: Lost comfortably to the Swans at home in the first week, scraped by against Freo the week after, then of course robbed right in front of me.

And as discussed, back in the 05/06 years where it was a pretty big choke job to not even make the Grand Final in either year (thankfully for the Swans since they were our bogey side).

I can see it go either way - the poor finishes to the 15 & 16 seasons could give them the impetus they need to go further, or it could play on their minds. Similar to the Swans - if by some miracle we make the Grand Final again do the losses in 14 & 16 give us the hunger or do they make us freeze up?

You'd have to say if they don't make the Grand Final this year it would be a disappointment, right? At that stage you've got to wonder if they can get over the hump, finals in 12, 15, 16 & 17 including two top four finishes without a GF appearance. Would sorta remind me of the Bulldogs of 09-11.

2015 is a year that has to have the context of Phil Walsh's passing added to it. Since returning to play against West Coast, whenever the team had a good run of emotional wins, they would then fall in a inexplicable heap. The lack of consistency was pretty obvious.
West Coast game - loss
Port game - close emotional win
Suns game - have long been our bunnies, so still a win
Swans game - loss
Tigers - win
Bombers - bye bye Hirdy game (huge win)
Lions - another really strong win over a much lesser team
Eagles - win that solidified us playing finals
Geelong - capitulation at Kardina once again
Bulldogs - a win like the Port Showdown
Hawks - capitulation from the start of the game.

It was an interesting pattern at the end of the year and has to be considered as part of the reason for the collapse against Hawthorn.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Sorry but I have never bought into the excuse about Phil Walsh. Sure the next game or even the next month but I would be extremely disappointed if my club couldnt get up mentally for a final regardless of the events of months prior.

As I said, if it had happened just prior to the finals Id give it some credence but its just an excuse to cover up our mistakes of that season.

We need to give it up.

Considering that the players and staff are still receiving assistance because of what happened to Phil, it is still impacting the club as a whole.

 

[DangerSloane]

Sorry but I have never bought into the excuse about Phil Walsh. Sure the next game or even the next month but I would be extremely disappointed if my club couldnt get up mentally for a final regardless of the events of months prior.

As I said, if it had happened just prior to the finals Id give it some credence but its just an excuse to cover up our mistakes of that season.

We need to give it up.

You obviously have no idea what grief does to a person if you think this.
Nobody made the excuses, but no doubt it would've had an effect. Not just his loss, but a change in coaches mid season.