Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Glenno23

    Glenno23 Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 05
    Posts:
    21,628
    Location:
    SA
    Look, it may happen, but based on Port's form vs top 8, it would be an unlikely result. A win against us? I could potentially see it. An 11 goal loss. No way
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. drazah

    drazah Club Legend

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 16
    Posts:
    2,080
    But it was a sliding doors Squiggle simulation, which means that it is guaranteed to happen.

    In at least one universe, anyway.
     
  3. Glenno23

    Glenno23 Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Sep 05
    Posts:
    21,628
    Location:
    SA
    Ah, makes more sense now! :oops:
     
  4. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,958
    Location:
    Kardinia Park
    IMG_6392.PNG
    Please no squiggle, my heart wouldn't be able to cope :oops:
     
    iluvparis, sverik25, Sando22 and 11 others like this.
  5. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,103
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    Good news is Final Siren shall be reporting early tomorrow :)

    And thank you Richmond :thumbsu:
     
    Kane McGoodwin likes this.
  6. Dirty Bird

    Dirty Bird Pokémon Master

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    #BostonStrong #RiseUp
    Joined:
    Aug 10
    Posts:
    25,941
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Actually, I assumed we'd get a late update due to hangover from victory celebrations
     
  7. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Premiership Player

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Straya
    Joined:
    Sep 15
    Posts:
    3,958
    Location:
    Kardinia Park
    Final Siren why do you make a model to rate your own team so low :'(? We are the opposite of Adelaide.

    How much of a bearing does our late 2016 capitulation have on our current rating?
     
  8. Rotayjay

    Rotayjay Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 14
    Posts:
    5,567
    Location:
    Adelaide, South Australia
    Port fans' alternate universe, est. 13,000,000,000 BC
     
    Crankyhawk and 00Stinger like this.
  9. Kane McGoodwin

    Kane McGoodwin Hall of Famer

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Adelaide Crows
    Joined:
    May 01
    Posts:
    40,959
    Location:
    Floating around the Universe
    Adelaide went north with crazy attack, then crashed & now tightening the defence heading east...
     
    Rotayjay likes this.
  10. barmy44

    barmy44 BigFooty Guy

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Man City, England Test Team, Sturt
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    7,243
    Location:
    Brisbane
    the titanic actually sunk quite slowly...
     
  11. barmy44

    barmy44 BigFooty Guy

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Man City, England Test Team, Sturt
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    7,243
    Location:
    Brisbane
    Final Siren - how come the 'sliding doors' predictions usually throw up impossible - or highly improbable, anyway - results?
     

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. VictorianCrow85

    VictorianCrow85 Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 16
    Posts:
    1,261
    For a ship that was meant to be unsinkable it didn't last long at all...
     
  13. barmy44

    barmy44 BigFooty Guy

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Man City, England Test Team, Sturt
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    7,243
    Location:
    Brisbane
    haha, true... definitely one way to look at it!
     
    VictorianCrow85 likes this.
  14. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    2017 Round 18

    [​IMG]

    Animated!

    [​IMG]

    Every week I say, "It was Adelaide's week," and you know what? It's Adelaide's week. It has to be when they put away the 2nd team while a likely 3rd and 4th in GWS and Port Adelaide turn to water. Literally, in GWS's case. I was at that game. Super wet. Adelaide missing the Top 2 from here would require something extraordinary, like when Adelaide missed Top 4 last year, or Adelaide failed to finish 1st in 2006. Actually, Adelaide does this a lot. But those are coincidences, probably.

    Sydney are rolling on, too. In fact, let's skip right ahead to the brand new Flagpole, which I redesigned due to popular whinging. This one builds in a penalty based on the team's likelihood of making finals, so flags can no longer fly high on teams with no realistic chance of making the Top 8. More detail to come in another post sometime. The Swans still sit second even though they have more chance of missing finals altogether than their rivals:

    [​IMG]

    There was an article by Rohan Connolly about how the pre-finals bye may mean it's better than it used to be to finish 5th-8th, since you get to play more than a single game in a month of football, unlike the Qualifying Final winners, who have to sit around waiting for longer than is really ideal. That would be handy for the Swans, if the year that they get off to an 0-6 start, they don't actually need to finish Top 4. Then again, if they keep up their current form, they'll snag that anyway, because this is also the year when you won't need many wins for 4th.

    Speaking of 4th, that's where Richmond now sits on the official ladder. Squiggle, however, probably won't have any faith in Richmond until Trent Cotchin is on the dias holding the premiership cup. Oooh. That felt good to write. I mean, squiggle is so down on Richmond, it wouldn't rate us if the team was jogging a victory lap of the MCG as "Yellow and Black" reverberates around and I cry hot salty tears of three decades of pent-up frustration while hugging the old guy in the seat next to me and it's the best day of my life, it's just the best day ever, oh God, oh God.

    Squiggle can't get past the fact that Richmond has the third-weakest attack in the league. To be sure, it's hard to kick a lot of goals in a swimming pool. But the Tigers have been low-scoring all year, and low-scoring teams don't win premierships. Sometimes, moderately-scoring teams with excellent defences do it. Not often. Not as often as you'd expect, given how many try. But sometimes. Richmond are far short even of that mark.

    Hawthorn showed a lot in dispatching Fremantle away, but given that finals are probably out of reach, it doesn't seem to mean a whole lot. Aside sticking it to St Kilda over that first round draft pick. That's something.

    I want to be hard on Port Adelaide, because it was another disappointing performance by a team that should be capable of more than this, but I actually watched some of the game and Melbourne were red hot. And losing by 23 points (23 scoring shots to 20) interstate to a team that's challenging for Top 4 is not too shabby. The Inside 50 count was pretty lopsided. But still, it wasn't exactly a capitulation, and isn't reason to give up on the Power.

    In fact, the ladder predictor still has Port for 4th. But it's pretty ridiculous:

    [​IMG]

    Thirteen wins for third place would be obscene and probably won't happen, not unless we get a long-running repeat of that popular game show from last year, "Who Wants to Drop a Critical Game?"

    But what it shows is that it's wide open from 3rd down to 9th or 10th, and Top 4 spots are going cheap.

    [​IMG]

    It was a brutal weekend for West Coast, who dropped a very winnable game while Sydney, Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon, and the Bulldogs all won. That's knife-in-the-heart stuff.

    St Kilda were up against it with Sydney away, and not really expected to win. But they didn't look much like a finals team, either, and so also faded, partly because of new pressure from the Hawks from below.

    But the Lions won! This raises the real possibility of a last-round spoonfight between Brisbane and North Melbourne. Now that's entertainment.

    More squiggles!

    Live squiggle!
     
  15. Pessimistic

    Pessimistic TheBrownDog

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Horks
    Joined:
    Sep 00
    Posts:
    57,019
    Location:
    Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
    Hawks 'probably' won't make it

    So that means there's a chance!
     
    tazaa, BlueWaterHawk, _DBF_ and 3 others like this.
  16. KissKiss

    KissKiss Premiership Player

    Brisbane Lions
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 12
    Posts:
    3,047
    Yay Spoonbowl!!!!
     
    Beer n Skittles, _DBF_ and ferrisb like this.
  17. drazah

    drazah Club Legend

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 16
    Posts:
    2,080
    Aww, tower of power made us a Collingw-anchor

    upload_2017-7-24_18-27-26.png
     
  18. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,103
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    FTFY
     
    iluvparis and drazah like this.
  19. drazah

    drazah Club Legend

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 16
    Posts:
    2,080
    Maybe Final Siren is only 30?
     
  20. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,103
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    Poor guy. Hasnt seen a Tigers flag.
     
    Rotayjay likes this.
  21. drazah

    drazah Club Legend

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 16
    Posts:
    2,080
    Your club has players who weren't born yet to see your last flag mind you :D
     
  22. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,103
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    [​IMG]
     
  23. evo

    evo Premium Platinum

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 03
    Posts:
    25,734
    Location:
    Dancing down Swan St
    the new flagpole pleases me. Proud to be a solid contributor to said whinging.
     
    The Dodger, chazwazza and hotkorma like this.
  24. WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

    WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Oct 12
    Posts:
    5,769
    Final Siren, you missed one. 2008, when Adelaide were in 4th spot going into the final round and won their last game, only for St Kilda to beat 12th placed Essendon by 108 points and push the Crows into 5th spot by less than 1%.

    It was St Kilda's highest score for the year (by 3 goals, scoring 147 points) and Essendon's lowest score for the year (by 2 goals, scoring just 39 points). When they played earlier in the year, St Kilda had won by just 36 points.

    The Crows then lost to 8th placed Collingwood in week 1 of the finals and were eliminated.

    You know, not that I'm bitter or anything! ;)
     
  25. nobbyiscool

    nobbyiscool Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Raiders/TasTigers/MV/Iggles
    Joined:
    Aug 06
    Posts:
    9,526
    Location:
    heaven on earth! (Melbourne)
    At the start of every year I question the squiggle and it's predictive power.

    And every year, as the season goes on, I am reminded that it's not really a predictor - it's a really a tool to confirm what we already know, or at least what we suspect.

    And in that vain, I think it's very appropriate that Adelaide and Sydney are the 2 teams edging closer and closer to the Squggle's premiership zone, because I've started to think that, unless something crazy happens over the last 3 weeks of the season and the first 2 weeks of the final, they are clearly the 2 teams that everyone should be fearing.
     
    Golumless, Joao, AusTerran and 3 others like this.