Stats observations

[Catsace]

I have watched the YouTube footage of this game, which for whatever reason, cuts off at the moment Richmond first hit the lead in the final quarter, with the scores lying at 102 to 101. Reading through The Age report on this game from Google News Archive, part of the article states, "In those final 15 minutes, Footscray was prepared to fight as hard as was required to hold on to the slender lead it regained after interchange player Chris Burton and then full forward Simon Beasley slammed in successive goals."

My interpretation of this is that Footscray scored the final two goals of the game, meaning that at one stage Richmond actually lead by at least 10 points during that final term. Do either of you know how far in front Richmond were in this game?

I think you may be right there Worbod, although my memory of that game was somewhat affected by watching my Cats somehow blow a 6 goal lead over the Dees on that fine sunny Anzac day Monday......with Kelvin Templeton booting 8 goals in his almost singularly best game as a Dee. An astonishing game, as i did have my radio on listening to the around the ground scores as was my wont as a 15 y/o at the time. Back then in early '83....my limited football memories always saw the Tigers as a big scalp to be taken down and the Dogs a bit of a struggler. That win made the Doggies 4-1 for the year, before Essendon brutally smashed them by 132 pts the next week! That game also was a taste of things to come for Geelong, as unlike nowadays, seven of Geelong's nine games at KP were defeats in 1983.

 

[Catsace]

Thought i'd move this post from it's mis-placed spot in the debutante's suspension thread, as i had a closer look at Round 1 1980.

Off topic, but upon closer inspection of this Rd 1 1980, three sides doubled (or near enough in the case of St.Kilda) their 3/4 time scores with withering last quarters....

Pies went from 5.13.43 to 13.16.94, Dogs 8.8.56 to 17.11.113 and St.Kilda 7.11.53 to 14.16.100

Hawthorn didn't quite double, but even they added a significant 7.4.46 to their 3/4 time score of 8.12.60

Just caught me as something rather unusual to see so many huge last quarters in a round of footy. All were in vain also!

Wouldn't be too many rounds with such a big percentage of a so many team's scores being accrued in the last quarter would there?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Do either of you know how far in front Richmond were in this game?

I don't even remember us hitting the front. And Landy didn't kick a goal, so it may have been Jimmy Jess. But definitely a very long goal on the final siren to Richmond.

Edit: Actually after watching the YouTube footage it couldn't have been Jess. My memory is playing a few tricks as I'd thought Footscray kicked to the city end to start, but that couldn't have been the case. 30 years ago...

Perhaps it was Taylor who kicked the last goal, though he wasn't an especially long kick.

 

[RogersResults]

Observed in Round 20 2013:

Hawthorn challenge a scoring record they set in 1958.

St Kilda’s 501st loss in a particular category.

The relatively rare occurrence of a club v club attendance record being broken.

A 2nd time only for Richmond since 1982.

Two first time ever scoring occurrences in the Geelong v Port match.

The 999th in ‘Sleepy Hollow’.

The Dogs keep one arm of the goal umpires the most busy ever in a match against the Blues.

Collingwood pip their first effort at a venue by 1 point and equal their best there.

Over an average of 4,000 fewer going matches on the Gold Coast than in 2011.

West Coast twice as successful against Essendon in their last 15 matches than they were in the previous 15.

Adelaide and Nth Melbourne form a pair never seen before.

Fremantle achieve a scoring feat only seen twice before.

Port Adelaide is 12th on a ladder of results from the last 6 matches – Essendon are 13th.

West Coast are the round 20 champs while Fremantle are 2nd bottom in all round 20 results.

An average of 106 more people are going to each match this year.

Details and More: Click Here

 

[RogersResults]

Off topic, but upon closer inspection of this Rd 1 1980, three sides doubled (or near enough in the case of St.Kilda) their 3/4 time scores with withering last quarters....

Pies went from 5.13.43 to 13.16.94, Dogs 8.8.56 to 17.11.113 and St.Kilda 7.11.53 to 14.16.100

Hawthorn didn't quite double, but even they added a significant 7.4.46 to their 3/4 time score of 8.12.60

Just caught me as something rather unusual to see so many huge last quarters in a round of footy. All were in vain also!

Wouldn't be too many rounds with such a big percentage of a so many team's scores being accrued in the last quarter would there?

Three teams doubling their 3/4 time score is the most in a round.
Round 10, 1898: Essendon 5.7-37 to 10.17-77, Carlton 0.2-2 to 1.3-9, Melbourne 0.4-4 to 1.5-11
Round 8, 1900: Carlton 1.5-11 to 3.13-31, Essendon 0.1-1 to 1.4-10, St Kilda 2.2-14 to 4.5-29
Round 1, 1901: Essendon 0.10-10 to 1.15-21, Geelong 1.5-11 to 2.11-23, St Kilda 3.2-20 to 6.5-41
Round 5, 1912: Carlton 2.10-22 to 5.14-44, Richmond 3.2-20 to 6.4-40, Sth Melbourne 3.4-22 to 7.8-50
Round 17, 1927: Collingwood 1.8-14 to 3.13-31, Fitzroy 3.8-26 to 9.18-72, Hawthorn 0.0-8 to 3.15-33
Round 16, 1936: Carlton 5.14-44 to 12.22-94, Essendon 5.6-36 to 12.16-88, Fitzroy 3.4-22 to 6.8-44
Round 9, 1953: Melbourne 3.4-22 to 7.6-48, Footscray 2.5-17 to 5.13-43, Geelong 4.4-28 to 9.6-60,
Round 15, 1955: Collingwood 2.9-21 to 10.11-71, St Kilda 1.4-10 to 3.13-31, Footscray 1.14-20 to 5.22-52
Round 11, 1961: Carlton 4.13.37 to 10.13-78, Collingwood 1.8-14 to 4.12-36, Nth Melbourne 3.6-24 to 7.8-50

Teams have doubled their score in the last quarter on 793 occasions.
The highest factor has been 11.5. In round 23, 1992 West Coast went from 0.2-2 to 3.5-23.
The biggest score increase in a last quarter is 106 points. In round 12, 1919 Sth Melbourne went from 12.11-83 to 29.15-189.

 

[mianfei]

The highest factor has been 11.5. In round 23, 1992 West Coast went from 0.2-2 to 3.5-23.

That was an amazing game - the Eagles on a slow ground looked completely paralysed with a built-for-speed forward line designed for a Perth wet where sandy soils drain out the rain - yet they got three goals at the end after going a whole half of football from the four minute-mark of the second quarter without so much as scoring! It’s wonderful to watch the game even though I do not recall it from the time.

 

[worbod]

In yesterday's Richmond vs. Carlton clash, the three field umpires were Steve McBurney (celebrating his 400th game), Shane McInerney (373 games) and Stuart Wenn (330 games). This was a combined total of 1103 games, surely a games aggregate record for three umpires officiating in one game.

 

[worbod]

After reading my copy of the "Gaumont Football Yearbook 1992", I discovered a comeback from 1991 which was greater than the one I originally displayed in my Greatest Comebacks table on page 96. I have now corrected this.

 

[RogersResults]

Observed in Round 21 – 2013.

Hawthorn winning in a particular way for the first time since 1991.

Hawthorn are now 68 points off being ‘in the black’ for the first time ever.

A 2nd time only type of win for Carlton. (The first was in 1934.)

Richmond's 6th loss from 10 matches against the current top 9 placed teams on the ladder this year.

Port Adelaide twice as good at home as in the last two seasons combined.

North Melbourne break an 88 year drought.

A losing sequence never seen before for Essendon.

The Giants have taken 42 matches to accumulated what has taken the Magpies 563 matches.

West Coast's biggest loss, lowest score and highest score conceded at Subiaco Oval are all down to one opponent.

Geelong win 200 matches out of 300 for the first time.

Fremantle set many new records including their best results from 25,50 and 75 consecutive matches.

Swans and Saints on a par in their last 100 matches against each other.

A first for the Dogs since 2011.

Six teams have won 4 of their last 6.

Details and More - Click Here.

 

[Belnakor]

The biggest score increase in a last quarter is 106 points. In round 12, 1919 Sth Melbourne went from 12.11-83 to 29.15-189.

assume thats the game where some of the opposition players walked off the field during the last quarter?

 

[RogersResults]

assume thats the game where some of the opposition players walked off the field during the last quarter?

May have been another St Kilda match where some players walked off before the final bell. Match reports in the Argus and the Age don't mention a walk-off in the 1919 match.

 

[mianfei]

North Melbourne break an 88 year drought.

That, like Fremantle’s first draw (and this season’s only one) was one drought I have long noted that has been broken this year.

When I had a look at the Round 8 data, I noticed that it was only the second AFL draw in Sydney, and there has in fact only been:

• one draw in 500 AFL matches in Perth (in mid-2003)
• two draws in 437 AFL matches in Adelaide (in 2000 and 2005)

In the same timespan (to the end of 2012) there were thirty-six draws in 2994 AFL games in Victoria, which is roughly seven times as many as would be predicted based upon the frequency in Perth and three times as many as upon the Adelaide frequency. This may be an inherent fact based around differences in soil texture, since the same differences apply in the state competitions, though the low frequency in WA may also be related to man-made global warming since in the much wetter Perth climate before 1975 draws were as frequent in WA as in the eastern states.

 

[Rourke]

That, like Fremantle’s first draw (and this season’s only one) was one drought I have long noted that has been broken this year.

When I had a look at the Round 8 data, I noticed that it was only the second AFL draw in Sydney, and there has in fact only been:

• one draw in 500 AFL matches in Perth (in mid-2003)
• two draws in 437 AFL matches in Adelaide (in 2000 and 2005)

In the same timespan (to the end of 2012) there were thirty-six draws in 2994 AFL games in Victoria, which is roughly seven times as many as would be predicted based upon the frequency in Perth and three times as many as upon the Adelaide frequency. This may be an inherent fact based around differences in soil texture, since the same differences apply in the state competitions, though the low frequency in WA may also be related to man-made global warming {my emphasis} since in the much wetter Perth climate before 1975 draws were as frequent in WA as in the eastern states.

As much as I believe in anthropogenic global warming, applying it to the rate of draws in footy is a bit of a long bow ...

Let's assume that the underlying rate of draws at all venues on average is the same, at about one every 95 matches (I have some theoretical reasons for picking that number, but anywhere between 90 and 100 would be fine). This will vary a little bit depending on how many mismatches there are, but it works as an approximation. You would then expect about 31.5 draws in Victoria, with a standard deviation of about 5.6: Victoria is well within normal range.

In Adelaide, you would expect 4.6, with a 16% chance of there being two or fewer. Nothing to see there. In Perth, you might expect 5.3, but again there is a 2.7% chance of being one and a 0.5% chance of zero - doesn't quite become significant using the regular statistical 95% test.

If there is a sound reason for combining those two cities, then the rate of three draws in 937 matches is just barely significant as there would only be a 1.1% chance of three or fewer happening randomly.

Curious but not causal, IMHO. Half expecting a Port vs Carlton draw next week now

 

[mianfei]

As much as I believe in anthropogenic global warming, applying it to the rate of draws in footy is a bit of a long bow ...

Let's assume that the underlying rate of draws at all venues on average is the same, at about one every 95 matches (I have some theoretical reasons for picking that number, but anywhere between 90 and 100 would be fine). This will vary a little bit depending on how many mismatches there are, but it works as an approximation. You would then expect about 31.5 draws in Victoria, with a standard deviation of about 5.6: Victoria is well within normal range.

In Adelaide, you would expect 4.6, with a 16% chance of there being two or fewer. Nothing to see there. In Perth, you might expect 5.3, but again there is a 2.7% chance of being one and a 0.5% chance of zero - doesn't quite become significant using the regular statistical 95% test.

In my previous post, I meant to show you a link about draws in the WAFL, because historical data from the state competitions might be a reasonable source of evidence as to how significant differences observed in today’s AFL are. Since 1975, the frequency of draws in the WAFL has been a quarter (about one every 330 games) what it has historically been for AFL or VFL matches in Melbourne, whereas for most of the period before 1975 draws were as frequent in the WAFL as in the VFL (or VFA for that matter). The fact that these changes coincide with a drying of Perth’s climate and have persisted through a decrease in scoring and into games in the national competition is suggestive.

It is for this reason that I suspect that, at least in current climates, the underlying rate of draws is different at different venues.

 

[RogersResults]

Observed in Round 22 – 2013.

A couple of new records for the Magpies.

A first in consecutive scoring for the Eagles.

Adelaide end their time at Football Park with a very neat win/loss record.

Melbourne joins three others on finishing on unlucky 13.

Hawks and Kangaroos all square from the last 20 and 38.

The Swan's biggest loss since the first half of 2011.

Geelong become a unique top 4 side in the final 8.

Fremantle continue to pile on new club records.

The Blues lose parity at the MCG.

Essendon are 1,714 matches away from their last ‘wooden-spoon’

St Kilda avoid their equal worst this century.

The Tigers not actually establish any new scoring records.

A stack of interesting result comparisons from the result at the Gabba.

Despite their win, Essendon currently rank 15th in results from the last 6 matches.

Cats, Dockers and Swans have all won the exact same percentage of quarters so far this year.

Details and More: Click Here.

 

[Ron The Bear]

The Tigers not actually establish any new scoring records.

Had a quick look. Most of them were trumped by that 1931 match v North.

 

[RogersResults]

Had a quick look. Most of them were trumped by that 1931 match v North.

I was pleased to be reminded that there have been worse than the Giants.

 

[mianfei]

I was pleased to be reminded that there have been worse than the Giants.

North Melbourne from 1929 to 1931 would have to rank among the half-dozen worst sides of all time - indeed if we exclude St. Kilda and University pre-1919 they would be among the bottom five for sure with a record of 2-52! Allowing for the influence of ground rationalisation and Docklands which tend to magnify differences in player quality (actually height which “you can’t teach”) that North team was relatively worse than Fitzroy in the middle 1960s or middle 1990s. Its improvement to 8-10 in 1932 was quite remarkable.

 

[RogersResults]

​

Average Points Difference (Points scored minus points conceded divided by matches played.)​

At round 22, 2013.
(Favours attack, whereas points scored * 100 / points conceded favours defence.)
​

 

[RogersResults]

​

Average points difference last 6 rounds (rounds 17-22)​

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Observed in Round 22 – 2013.



Geelong become a unique top 4 side in the final 8.

While correct no other top four has won as many games versus other top four opponents since the inception of the top 8, st Kilda in 2009 also went undefeated. 4-0 versus Collingwood, Geelong and bulldogs (2). So Geelong are actually the fourth since then.

 

[RogersResults]

While correct no other top four has won as many games versus other top four opponents since the inception of the top 8, st Kilda in 2009 also went undefeated. 4-0 versus Collingwood, Geelong and bulldogs (2). So Geelong are actually the fourth since then.

Quite right. St kilda losing to Geelong in the Grand Final must have slipped into the calculations.

 

[mianfei]

A first since 1999 today, and one which I half-expected a week ago between the Blues and Bombers! The previous longest gap between consecutive occurrences of this was also fourteen years but only about half as many matches (there was another of twelve and a half but with probably more matches than the earlier fourteen-year gap).

Three winning teams score the same with different combinations of goals and behinds - has this ever occurred before??

 

[red+black]

1947 - the last time Richmond made finals and failed to win a final

 

[RogersResults]

Three winning teams score the same with different combinations of goals and behinds - has this ever occurred before??

No.

Previously at least two of the winning teams with the same points score in the same round also had the same goal and behind tallies.