Stats questions

[red+black]

Nice catch from the Observations thread:

Jared Brennan's run as the last Gold Coast player to have played in all of their games came to an end.

So what's the record for each club (University and Fitzroy also) for a player to play every game from their club's inception?

 

[*Paul*]

78 Marcus Ashcroft Brisbane Lions
77 Charlie Pannam Collingwood
62 Fred McGinis Melbourne
57 Rodney Maynard Adelaide
55 Josh Francou Port Adelaide
51 Mick Pleass Sydney
51 Jack Conway Geelong
47 Michael Richardson Brisbane Bears
47 Athol Tymms University
42 Dave Walsh North Melbourne
31 Fred Finch Hawthorn
30 Peter Mann Fremantle
29 Jared Brennan Gold Coast
28 Ernie Walton Carlton
24 Col Laidlaw Western Bulldogs
23 Bill Luff Richmond
22 John Annear West Coast
20 Pat Hickey Fitzroy
19 Son Barry Essendon
15 Bill Matthews St Kilda
08 Phil Davis Greater Western Sydney

 

[Ron The Bear]

^ Also Joe McShane (Ge) 51, Jonathan Giles & Callan Ward (GWS) 8

 

[RogersResults]

So in 2012 a few records have been equalled or bettered at both the top and bottom end of the ladder, with a few more such records to come with Gold Coast and Melbourne. My question, to add to the list below, is for sides with 1 loss at most. Currently we have 3 teams on 7-1. Most x-0/1 teams for different values of x?

[B][U]Undefeated starts[/U][/B]
 4-0 (3 teams): [COLOR=Red]2012,[/COLOR]2008,1991,1988,1986,1965
 3-0 (4 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],2008,1991,1988,1986,1965

[B][U]Single loss or better starts[/U][/B]
eg. >=13-1 (2 teams): 2009
eg. >= 7-1 (3 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],2008

[B][U]Winless starts[/U][/B]
0- 1 (9 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR]
0- 4 (3 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],1995,1975,1967,1959,1946,1914
0- 5 (3 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],1995
0- 6 (3 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR]
0- 7 (2 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],2007,1991,1972,1949
[U]0- 8 (2 teams): [COLOR=red]2012[/COLOR],2007,1991,1972,1949[/U]
0- 9 (2 teams): 2007,1972
0-10 (2 teams): 1972
0-11 (1 team ): 29 occurrences
0-12 (1 team ): 25 occurrences
0-13 (1 team ): 23 occurrences
0-14 (1 team ): 19 occurrences
0-15 (1 team ): 13 occurrences
0-16 (1 team ): 12 occurrences
0-17 (1 team ): 10 occurrences
0-18 (1 team ):  8 occurrences

In 2009 St Kilda and Geelong were each 13-0
Then St Kilda went 14-0 and Geelong 13-1.

In 2008 it was Hawthorn 8-0, Geelong 8-0, Bulldogs 7-0-1.

Here are some more one losses for you.

7-1 (3 teams) 2012, 1939
8-1 (2 teams) 2001, 1981, 1979, 1975, 1973, 1971, 1966, 1959, 1939, 1936, 1928, 1925, 1910, 1905, 1901
9-1 (3 teams) 1936
10-1 (2 teams) 2011, 2008, 1975, 1928
11-1 (2 teams) 2008, 1975
12-1 (2 teams) 1975
13-1 (2 teams) 2011, 1975
14-1 (1 team) x 13

The 1975 pairing was broken in round 15 when "under the radar" 7-7 Nth Melbourne beat Carlton. Carlton only won 3 more matches for the year. North won 9 out of 11 to take the flag. Watch for something similar this year.

 

[red+black]

Very possible we could have three 10-1 sides this year.

West Coast: Fremantle (h), Brisbane (a), BYE, Carlton (h)
Adelaide: Collingwood (h), Fremantle (a), BYE, St Kilda (h)
Essendon: GWS (a), Melbourne (h), Sydney (h), BYE

And Essendon could be a game (and %) clear on top if they beat Sydney

 

[Gibbsy]

Always love perusing this thread. This isn't so much a "stats" question but a mere general enquiry, however I thought the geniuses of this thread may have an idea.

I've seen on a couple of stats sites Sydney referred to in 1982 as just "Swans" in their first season played after the move from South Melbourne. Is this true, that they were "geographically indistinct" in '82 or perhaps beyond? I find it hard to believe given there would have been a lot of publicity about the move north. Someone changed it from "Sydney" to "Swans" on the Wiki 1982 VFL Season page 12 months ago and no-one's ever reverted it.

 

[RogersResults]

Always love perusing this thread. This isn't so much a "stats" question but a mere general enquiry, however I thought the geniuses of this thread may have an idea.

I've seen on a couple of stats sites Sydney referred to in 1982 as just "Swans" in their first season played after the move from South Melbourne. Is this true, that they were "geographically indistinct" in '82 or perhaps beyond? I find it hard to believe given there would have been a lot of publicity about the move north. Someone changed it from "Sydney" to "Swans" on the Wiki 1982 VFL Season page 12 months ago and no-one's ever reverted it.

All the 1982 Football Records are online here

See what the League were calling them during the season.

Let us know what you find out.

 

[SJ]

All the 1982 Football Records are online here

See what the League were calling them during the season.

Let us know what you find out.

1982 Round 1 Football Record refers to them as "South Melbourne", "Sydney Swans" and "Swans".

 

[RogersResults]

1982 Round 1 Football Record refers to them as "South Melbourne", "Sydney Swans" and "Swans".

Tricky isn't it?

More research is needed to see when it settles down from this:

"This weekend marks South Melbourne's historical
move to Sydney where it will play 11 home games this
season.
The Sydney Swans meet Melbourne in what will be an
important test for both clubs.
The Swans will be keen to show their new home-town
supporters that they have a successful combination
while the Demons will be out to show that last season's
record of only one win was not a true reflection of
their ability."

Need to locate a Record that is a "Swans" match.

(Meanwhile is The Geelong Flyer really The Geelong Flier?)

 

[Gibbsy]

It's a doozy. They're still referred to as "South Melbourne" throughout the whole year, "Sydney Swans" on the front of the record but simply "Swans" in some articles - and you can tell it's intentional, for instance "Mark Browning... Swans' vice captain." Note the apostrophe which indicates that the club is called "Swans".

Some screenshots:

 

[RogersResults]

It's a doozy. They're still referred to as "South Melbourne" throughout the whole year, "Sydney Swans" on the front of the record but simply "Swans" in some articles - and you can tell it's intentional, for instance "Mark Browning... Swans' vice captain." Note the apostrophe which indicates that the club is called "Swans".

Some screenshots:

Great stuff. Good work. Suggests that the League wasn't sure it the relocation would stick.

1983: May 14: VFL appoint an eight-man board to conduct the affairs of the newly-named Sydney Swans Limited.

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Footystats/1858-.html

The above may the official date of the name change of the club with 'Swans' becoming officially part of the name, not just a nickname as it had been for around 50 years.

1983 Football Record may tell.

 

[Gibbsy]

1984 refers to them everywhere as "Sydney Swans".
1983 doesn't seem to be available online.

 

[RogersResults]

1984 refers to them everywhere as "Sydney Swans".
1983 doesn't seem to be available online.

The Sydney Swans : the complete history, 1874-1986 / Kevin Taylor

Author Taylor, Kevin, 1934- Subjects Sydney Swans (Football team); Australian football - History. Bookmarkhttp://trove.nla.gov.au/work/12386401


You could ask the author:

footysts@bigpond.net.au

I'd guess the May 1983 date is the official name change seeing as its on his website. But things like this are sometimes not clear-cut.

 

[the croucher]

Re: Discrepancy in the 1914 semi-final score: Geelong 5.8 instead of 5.7.

Papers such as the Warrnambool Standard and the Broken Hill Barrier Miner which would have got the scores by wire later, published Geelong's score as 5.7 in their Monday editions.

League statistician and Geelong club historian Col Hutchinson has been alerted and reports that he will check the League's minutes when he is next in the office. (Monday.)

Any further news on this ?

 

[RogersResults]

Any further news on this ?

Last I heard from Kevin Taylor, "If no answer this time next week, I will ask again."

That was the middle of last week.

There has been some records/stats project for the AFL that may have
distracted Mr. Hutchinson who was going to look in the League minutes.

I know that all the goal umpires reports have not been kept and it would
only be in the League minutes if it had been controversial or disputed in some way.

The evidence suggests that the score was misreported in the Melbourne
morning papers.

The edition of the Australasian following the match (5/9/1914) may have more evidence if anyone is near a library that keeps it.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/24966824?q=Australasian&c=article

 

[Ron The Bear]

1984 refers to them everywhere as "Sydney Swans".
1983 doesn't seem to be available online.

The Record in '83 invariably referred to the club as "Swans" throughout the season.

Stephen Rodgers in Every Game Ever Played writes "Midway through the [1982] season, South Melbourne became officially known by the club's emblem and new home, 'The Sydney Swans'.

A mate's dad was on the board at either Sydney (I think) or the VFL at the time, will ask about it next time I see him.

 

[rbartlett]

One of the examples:

1920: On the occasion of the visit of HRH The Princes Of Wales, two morning matches starting at 10.45am were played on Wednesday, May 26: Richmond v Collingwood at Punt Road Oval and Fitzroy played Geelong at the Brunswick Street Oval.

You can follow the history of starting times here:

http://footystats.freeservers.com/Footystats/1858-.html

I seem to think that the Richmond vs Coll game in question (above), was the day that part of a mini stand collapsed during the game.
As a side note, back in 2002, I interviewed a 100 year old supporter who was on the stand when it collapsed.
After the game, everyone went to the side of the ground to watch HRH be paraded down Punt Road.

 

[red+black]

geez this thread got real busy all of a sudden

 

[mHmmm]

On the weekend Hawks v Fre the score for goals and behinds individually for both clubs was the same 17.17 for Hawthorn and 9.9 for Fremantle. Just wondering how common an occurrence it is for both teams to individually have matching goals and behinds figures for the match?

Also wondering if any drawn games had occurred were both teams had the same number of goals and behinds, e.g. 10.10 vs 10.10?

 

[Ron The Bear]

On the weekend Hawks v Fre the score for goals and behinds individually for both clubs was the same 17.17 for Hawthorn and 9.9 for Fremantle. Just wondering how common an occurrence it is for both teams to individually have matching goals and behinds figures for the match?

Also wondering if any drawn games had occurred were both teams had the same number of goals and behinds, e.g. 10.10 vs 10.10?

a) http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24278620&postcount=833

b) Has happened 8 times, most recently Geelong v West Coast, Round 20 2003 - 9.9 v 9.9

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

A question for the statistically-literate fellows in here.

I like building simple handicappers for various sports, AFL included, and I have always struggled with mathematically accounting for the inequalities of the opposition faced when using points for/against (with the AFL fixture you can imagine this is a particular problem).

One thing I was thinking of doing is making an index to account for points for/against based on opposition. Simply speaking, I mean multiplying each score by the opponent's ladder percentage, tallying these scores up and taking the ratio of for/against for each team. This results in a bunch of values usually between 0.8 and 1.2. Obviously a rating over 1 means that particular team should be considered stronger than their numbers suggest, and less than 1 would mean the opposite.

My question is, despite the crudeness, can this method actually be used in a useful way? And if so, how would I feed it back into the real for/against numbers so that it is now a more realistic reflection of how teams have performed accounting for opposition?

 

[*Paul*]

My question is, despite the crudeness, can this method actually be used in a useful way?

I suspect the simplest answer is - it if does have any value, someone has already developed/exploited it.

 

[worbod]

In The Age today there is mention of the fact that when Kevin Sheedy coaches GWS against Essendon this weekend, it will have been a record timeframe of 33 years and 302 days since he encountered Essendon as an opponent (when he last played against them for Richmond in 1978.) Somebody at The Age has obviously done some research to determine that Sheedy will be the record holder in this respect. Can any Big Footy members discover who else would be behind Sheedy?

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

I suspect the simplest answer is - it if does have any value, someone has already developed/exploited it.

I think I phrased my question poorly.

What I meant by 'useful' was, what is the best way to feed such an index back into the real for/against columns so that it is a better reflection of opposition played.

I'm not trying to go out there and beat the bookies, just more a personal hobby.

 

[red+black]

In The Age today there is mention of the fact that when Kevin Sheedy coaches GWS against Essendon this weekend, it will have been a record timeframe of 33 years and 302 days since he encountered Essendon as an opponent (when he last played against them for Richmond in 1978)

Unless you include his encounters in '79-'80 as an assistant coach for Richmond.

Best I can find so far is Norm Smith v Melbourne:
1951-R14 - coach of Fitzroy v Melbourne
1969-R 9 - coach of South Melbourne v Melbourne

Another is Frank Hughes v Hawthorn:
1948-R10 - coach of Melbourne v Hawthorn
1965-R11 - coach of Melbourne v Hawthorn

Couple more, no where near Sheedy though:
1981-R14 - player for Essendon v Hawthorn
1998-R11 - coach of Melbourne v Hawthorn

1981-R12 - player for Essendon v North Melbourne
1998-R 2 - coach of Melbourne v North Melbourne

Damn, overlooked that Pagan played for South Melbourne.