Remove this Banner Ad

Stats questions

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

wrote a post on the main board how i'd always prefered if the scoring system in footy was the most goals wins, and behinds are just a tie break....

so i.e. 13.12 would defeat 12.20.... and it's only a draw if both goals and behinds are equal....

i was just wondering how many results in VFL/AFL history would this have changed if it were scored this way?? i wouldn't think much more than 2 a season on average....
 
worbod said:
In The Age today there is mention of the fact that when Kevin Sheedy coaches GWS against Essendon this weekend, it will have been a record timeframe of 33 years and 302 days since he encountered Essendon as an opponent (when he last played against them for Richmond in 1978.) Somebody at The Age has obviously done some research to determine that Sheedy will be the record holder in this respect. Can any Big Footy members discover who else would be behind Sheedy?
Click to expand...

I have a Joe Kelly, who played one game (vs Essendon in 1905), then coached Footscray in 1937 vs Essendon 11746 days later, about 32 years 60ish days.
That's assuming they're actually are the same person.
(They're not, appears my Joe's have experienced some identity crises)
Next in line is Paddy Noonan, last played 1905, coached 1927



A chap by the name of Jim Jackson played against Collingwood in 1909, he next played them in 1925, 5852 days later
 
worbod said:
In The Age today there is mention of the fact that when Kevin Sheedy coaches GWS against Essendon this weekend, it will have been a record timeframe of 33 years and 302 days since he encountered Essendon as an opponent (when he last played against them for Richmond in 1978.) Somebody at The Age has obviously done some research to determine that Sheedy will be the record holder in this respect. Can any Big Footy members discover who else would be behind Sheedy?
Click to expand...

Code: 
Days Player/Coach        Op Year Rd-Year Rd
-------------------------------------------
12355 Sheedy, Kevin      Es 1978 17-2012  9
10899 Noonan, Paddy      Ca 1899 14-1929  7
10626 Smith, Len V.      Fi 1935 10-1964 15
10311 Noonan, Paddy      St 1901  5-1929 16
10171 Noonan, Paddy      Es 1901 SR-1929  8
 9940 Noonan, Paddy      Ge 1902  1-1929 12
 9940 Noonan, Paddy      Me 1902  4-1929 15
 9926 Noonan, Paddy      Sy 1902  2-1929 11
 9912 Noonan, Paddy      Fi 1902  6-1929 13
 9854 Noonan, Paddy      Co 1902  7-1929  6
 9842 Williams, Tommy C. Me 1937 10-1964  8
 9814 Pagan, Denis       NM 1976 11-2003  5
 9485 Francis, Jim       Ca 1933 13-1959 11
 9177 Nunan, Michael     Sy 1971  4-1996 10
 8701 Titus, Jack        Ge 1941 18-1965 10
 8491 Pemberton, Jack    Es 1908  4-1931 15
 8470 Pemberton, Jack    Me 1908 10-1931 17
 8379 Joyce, Alan        St 1965 10-1988 10
 8360 Joyce, Alan        Es 1965 13-1988 11
 8358 Joyce, Alan        NM 1965  9-1988  5
 8351 Joyce, Alan        Sy 1965  8-1988  3
 8351 Joyce, Alan        Me 1965 11-1988  7
 8337 Joyce, Alan        Ge 1965 18-1988 13
 8316 Joyce, Alan        Co 1965 14-1988  6
 8316 Joyce, Alan        WB 1965 17-1988  9
 8295 Joyce, Alan        Ca 1965 12-1988  1
 8295 Joyce, Alan        Fi 1965 15-1988  4
 8274 Joyce, Alan        Ri 1965 16-1988  2
 8197 Rush, Bob          Ge 1908  1-1930 GF
 8106 Titus, Jack        Co 1943  2-1965 13
 8106 Titus, Jack        St 1943  3-1965 14
 8085 Clymo, Charlie     Es 1909  1-1931  8
 8065 Gieschen, Jeff     Me 1976  2-1998  7
 8057 Titus, Jack        Sy 1943  7-1965 11
 8050 Clymo, Charlie     Ri 1909  5-1931  7
 8050 Titus, Jack        Ca 1943  1-1965  6
 8050 Richards, Ron      Ri 1952  5-1974  9
 8036 Faul, Bill         WB 1938 12-1960 11
 8029 Clymo, Charlie     Co 1909  2-1931  1
 8029 Clymo, Charlie     Me 1909  4-1931  3
 8029 Faul, Bill         Fi 1938  9-1960  8
 8027 Clymo, Charlie     Fi 1909  7-1931  5
 8024 Clymo, Charlie     Sy 1909  9-1931  6
 8015 Clymo, Charlie     Ca 1909  8-1931  4
 8015 Faul, Bill         Ca 1938 10-1960  7
 8015 Titus, Jack        Es 1943  5-1965  4
 8013 Faul, Bill         Ri 1938  8-1960  5
 8001 Faul, Bill         Co 1938 11-1960  6
 8001 Titus, Jack        NM 1943  9-1965  7
 8001 Titus, Jack        Me 1943 15-1965 12
 

Log in to remove this Banner Ad

Mr Casson said:
I think I phrased my question poorly.

What I meant by 'useful' was, what is the best way to feed such an index back into the real for/against columns so that it is a better reflection of opposition played.

I'm not trying to go out there and beat the bookies, just more a personal hobby.
Click to expand...

I'm glad of that. You won't.
Here's something simple that would have predicted 7 winners last round.
Average points differential. (Missed Adelaide and Port Adelaide.)

Take points against away from points scored and divide by the number of matches played.

Next round:

Geelong 1.25 v West B;dogs -4.0
Richmond 2.63 v Hawthorn 23.88
Gold Coast -43.63 v Port Adelaide -20.13
St Kilda 14.38 v Sydney 29.75

and so on.

For entertainment purposes only - will not beat the odds.
 
*Paul* said:
That's assuming they're actually are the same person.
(They're not, appears my Joe's have experienced some identity crises)
Click to expand...

Going off Wiki I think I have the same problem, though I would've cross-checked the birthdates with other sources (allthestats.com, AFL historical stats pages, Encyclopedia Of AFL Footballers). Will check it out when I get home.

Until then, Joe Kelly b.25/03/1884 is the current record holder AFAIC!
 
*Paul* said:
Whilst doing that, I also discovered another mismatch with Bill Thomas. Probably my error, but you may want to give it the once over also.

Minus 19 at career's end :)
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/coaches/Bill_Thomas0.html
Click to expand...

Appears coach Joe Kelly was the more notable player Joe Kelly.

Joe Kelly b.25/3/1884 played 1 game with Ge 1905
Joe W.Kelly b.7/6/1907 played 137 games with Ca 1926-34; coached Fo & SM in 137 games 1937-44

Reckon I may have gotten them mixed up back when I took allthestats.com to be an authoritative source, as it nominated (incorrectly, as it turns out) specific matches for stand-in coaches and supplied a DOB for one of the early coaches which no other source had.

My Bill Thomases were sorted correctly:
Bill D.Thomas b.10/11/1886 played 197 games with SM & Ri 1905-19; captain-coach of SM in 39 games 1910-11
Bill Thomas b.21/1/1930 played 4 games with NM 1951-52

To avoid confusing myself, I use the names given by the AFL historical stats section (when it's working). It uses an initial to distinguish between players/coaches with the same first and last name. To begin with they give the initial to the less decorated player, but now they usually dhow both players' initials. Both Kelly & Thomas are variations from the norm (maybe the lesser known players didn't have middle names?).

Where both players had the same middle initial, they give the full middle name, e.g. Jack Cecil Collins (b.1925), Jack Charles Collins (b.1930).
 
*Paul* said:
As I've discovered, not without it's pitfalls (there's six Peter Browns BTW). But the biggest hurdle is catching new players of the same name, like the recent debut of Andrew Phillips. How do you handle that?
Click to expand...

The Nathan Browns were a unique case, with all three being listed in 2007.

Once they've played a senior game, the AFL lists them with a middle initial, or gives a middle initial to the older player (e.g. Andrew J. Phillips b.1970). Then I update my database.

My master player list has 'official name' and 'display name' columns, e.g. Nick Justin Smith/Nick Smith, though I rarely bother with the display name these days.

Matthew Watson caused me some problems as it took a while to find out his middle initial (which is 'N') and my db was confusing him with the Matthew Watson from 1997 Essendon. He temporarily became 'Matthew Z. Watson' to me. :)

Occasionally they modify the player's first name, especially in cases where the more distinguished player was better known by the variation, e.g. Andy Collins (Ha), Andrew Collins (Ri).

There are others yet to debut - Luke Brown, Tom Campbell, Jamie Elliott.

*Paul* said:
We all have the same problem..
http://finalsiren.com/PlayerStats.asp?PlayerID=2057
http://finalsiren.com/PlayerStats.asp?PlayerID=1881
Click to expand...

Ah yes, the full stop. Not a very elegant solution.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

IMDb appends Roman numerals to names:

Colin Farrell (I) (Actor, Phone Booth (2002))
Colin Farrell (II) (Actor, Oh! What a Lovely War (1969))
Colin Farrell (III) (Self, Seoige and O'Shea (2006))
Colin Farrell (IV) (Self, The Ghosts of Duffy's Cut (2006))

Middle names or initials may not be known at the time a player starts his career, yet may be discovered later on. So list them in order of debut, append a Roman numeral, add an initial if known:

Nathan G. Brown [1] (Player, Western Bulldogs (1997)
Nathan D. Brown [2] (Player, Melbourne (1998))
Nathan J. Brown [3] (Player, Collingwood (2008))
 
*Paul* said:
Right.. I hadn't realised they were so fastidious with that stats section. It's laid dormant or broken for long periods.
Click to expand...

Every so often they update missing birthdates, or change the line-ups for early VFL matches. It's good and bad when they do - creates a lot of work!
 
I'm sure I read an article in the Age or the Sun a couple of years ago which quoted one of the stats groups as finding that if a team leads by 5 goals or more at any stage of the game it was 95% sure of winning. Has anyone else read or heard about this? Not sure of the number of years they took into account. The theory was that the effort required by a team to win back a 5 goal deficit took too much out of them and the team with the original 5 goal lead would rebound at some stage to win the match. Comebacks are possible of course as per Port last weekend but in modern football they seem to happen less and less.
 
rukka23 said:
I'm sure I read an article in the Age or the Sun a couple of years ago which quoted one of the stats groups as finding that if a team leads by 5 goals or more at any stage of the game it was 95% sure of winning. Has anyone else read or heard about this? Not sure of the number of years they took into account. The theory was that the effort required by a team to win back a 5 goal deficit took too much out of them and the team with the original 5 goal lead would rebound at some stage to win the match. Comebacks are possible of course as per Port last weekend but in modern football they seem to happen less and less.
Click to expand...

Records of progressive scores during quarters do not go back very far.
(You can examine them back to 2008 here.)

Looking at the quarter break scores from 14,032 matches 1897-2012 R8.
You can note the following:

Teams leading by 30 or more points at quarter time have won 89.34% of the matches. 1,116 won, 131 lost, 5 drawn.

In 2011 1.53% of matches were wins from being 30 points or more down at quarter time. This was 2nd highest percentage after 2008 (1.62%) since 2.7% in 1999, which was the highest since 2.9% in 1979. The highest percentage was 4.46% in 1941. There were last none in 2004 and 2005, the first consecutive seasons without a comeback from a first quarter deficit of 5 goals more since 1956-59 when there were none for 4 seasons.

There have been 45 seasons without a comeback from 5 goals or more down at quarter time. 5 of those since 1986.

Teams leading by 30 or more points at half time have won 97.16% of the matches. 2,784 won, 82 lost, 4 drawn.

No team came back to win from 30 or more points down at 1/2 time until 1927. 29% (24/82) of the comebacks have been since 1998.

Teams leading by 30 or more points at 3 quarter-time have won 99.05% of the matches. 4,887 won, 45 lost, 4 drawn.
The highest percentage of comebacks was 2.68% (3 matches) in 1944.
The most in any one season was 4 (2.16%) in 2008. There have been none since. From 1897 to 1935 there were a total of 4.

If you look at needing to kick at least 5 unanswered to gain the lead and hold it to win. Then the figures for teams leading by 25-29 points only are:

1st quarter: 82.45% win.
2nd quarter: 92.02% win
3rd quarter: 94.89% win.

For entertainment purposes only - will not 'beat the odds'.
Stay clear of anyone who tells you otherwise.
 
After viewing today's enthralling entertainment at the MCG, when was the last time Richmond defeated Hawthorn by 10 goals or more?
 

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

hawkman said:
Hope we don't follow the same pattern, we didn't win a game for the rest of that year

What is longest current streak of a team not beating an opponent by more than 10 goals? We have lost to West Coast by more than 10 goals since 1991, a couple of close run things though.

I'm guessing that there maybe some that go back to the 70's and early 80's
Click to expand...

WB/Footscray v Collingwood: Never. (148 matches in 88 years.)
Nearest: 15.14-104 v 6.12-48 round 1, 1955.
 
worbod said:
After viewing today's enthralling entertainment at the MCG, when was the last time Richmond defeated Hawthorn by 10 goals or more?
Click to expand...

SJ said:
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/games/1997/101419970713.html
Click to expand...

Q1: Richmond win quarter by 13 points
Q2: Richmond win quarter by 1 point
Q3: Richmond win quarter by 5 points
Q4: BANG! Richmond win quarter by 57 points !!! :thumbsu:

Prior to the that Round 15 game, Hawthorn were =3rd on the ladder while Richmond was 15th.

By season's end just 7 rounds later, Richmond finished 2 games clear of Hawthorn as the Hawks finished the year in 15th themselves.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Stats questions

Similar threads

aflstatsiq
My new stats app
Replies
14
Views
1K
aflstatsiq
aflstatsiq

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top