Surely we won't win the spoon?

[Side Bet]

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/6578655/wooden-spoon-whack-for-dockers/




Fremantle's solid pre-season has mattered little to bookmakers who believe the success-starved club will challenge Melbourne for the wooden spoon in 2010.

Betting agencies throughout Australia have taken an undeniable set against the Dockers in fresh markets, with TAB Sportsbet listing them and the Demons as $3.75 equal favourites to occupy the cellar at the completion of the 22 home-and-away rounds.

Centrebet and Player have been a little kinder with their assessment of Mark Harvey's side, installing them on the second line at $3.75 and $3.65.

Both have Melbourne, who have finished bottom the past two years under Dean Bailey, as outright favourites to be last at $3.50 (Centrebet) and $3.40 (Player).

 

[DizzyHB]

Nobody rates us and nobody rates Harvey.

Who cares?

At best I think we'll play finals, it would take an injury list to end all injury lists for us to finish bottom IMO.

 

[Palmervich]

Find that a bit hard to swallow, I would have thought there would have been a few teams still moving backwards behind us, those in Richmond, North, Port even Sydney, and obviously Melbourne. Season proper will prove who is right though. The bookies always seem to miss the mark with us though, rate us too highly, or too poorly........ Maybe thats our own doing though!

 

[Nooka]

That is a ridiculous call I think, I think Melbourne and Richmond should be favourites for the spoon, and that Port Adelaide should have less odds than Freo too. Journalists are so biased, but maybe this lack of expectation will be fruitful. I think at worst Freo will finish, just outside the bottom 4, or at best, maybe scrape into the 8. Imagine a season with a great run of injuries, having a midfield of Palmer, Crowley, Haselby, Hill, Suban, is beginning to look formidable, and add Morabito to that mix, with no tag, and that is a midfield, that in 2010 may scrape into the 8. Hopefully Pav plays closer to goal, and according to Des, Murphy is turning it on haha, but this is tough to believe, but still Mayne,Pav, Balla and there should be plenty of goals to be had, not to forget Keps. The defence with McPharlin back is also beginning to look solid, then the two swingmen in McPhee and Michael Johnson, there is a lot to get excited about in 2010. The best 22 will be challenging for any opponent, especially at Subi, but a run of injuries akin to last year and Freo will be done. The depth needs to be developed.

 

[purplepassion82]

BAH!!!!! It's not like the bookies have ever been wrong! They think we are a soft target and an easy way for them to make money. It will take a hell of a disastorous season the place us last.

They will be proven wrong in this case.

 

[westy1]

i would prefer these odds than the usuall unrealistic expectations/odds thrown at us at the beginning of the recent years.
remember last season we started firm favourates to beat the bullies in round 1
ludicrous,

 

[Admiral Byng]

I am quite happy flying under the radar.

I think last year the team balance was completely thrown out with having Pav in the midfield and most of our other forwards (Headland, Mayne Ballantyne) all missing too, plus injuries to Crowley and Palmer. This season we (hopefully) will start with all these players ready to go and have a much better structure. That alone will make a huge difference.

So let them write us off, there is no pressure.

 

[free at last]

i would prefer these odds than the usuall unrealistic expectations/odds thrown at us at the beginning of the recent years.
remember last season we started firm favourates to beat the bullies in round 1
ludicrous,

we will finish above.tiges.port,dees,roos. for sure.why.coz we are getting better at home.swans,eagirls,blues and us will be the next quartet.in no particular order.we are no chance for the 8.why.we don't have enough 23 to 26yr old worthy afl players.

 

[mattus]

It's just a crap journo Diggin' for a story.

Freo in better shape than the previous 3 years. Or,even more than that.

 

[Dormammu]

The make-up of a bookie's board reflects the bets he's holding, what he thinks his competing bookmakers are holding (and might lay off on him later) and the size and type of future bets (which he bases largely on his knowledge of past trends and the behaviour of his largest clients).

He'll have a good knowledge of the capabilities of the 16 playing groups and their coaching panels, which he might (partially) build into his prices, but rarely does he go out there to take on the Joe Punters with his own world view.

His is a business based on actual and expected cashflows and percentages. In his perfect world what he hopes to end up with is a book that makes money regardless of whether any one team finishes 1st or 16th (i.e., arbitrage).

So with most money coming in from Victoria (by virtue of its larger population), and with the Big 4 Vic teams all finishing in the top half this year (and Hawthorn finishing just outside), a lot of optimistic/emotive bets are going to drive down the flag odds of these teams until well into the NAB cup.

The opposite argument broadly applies to the bottom half teams (note Hawthorn disclaimer above).

So chillax people and feel free to page the hosties anytime for another free drink on your off-the-radar flight!!*

*All terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Free drinks will cease and odds withdrawn immediately once your bookmaker hears the familiar sound of spine-rattling Suban hip-and-shoulder on an opposing CHB, the sight of Hilly breaking 3 tackles in quick succession, or the sight of Pav reaching for the throat of a Geelong ranga.

 

[free at last]

The make-up of a bookie's board reflects the bets he's holding, what he thinks his competing bookmakers are holding (and might lay off on him later) and the size and type of future bets (which he bases largely on his knowledge of past trends and the behaviour of his largest clients).

He'll have a good knowledge of the capabilities of the 16 playing groups and their coaching panels, which he might (partially) build into his prices, but rarely does he go out there to take on the Joe Punters with his own world view.

His is a business based on actual and expected cashflows and percentages. In his perfect world what he hopes to end up with is a book that makes money regardless of whether any one team finishes 1st or 16th (i.e., arbitrage).

So with most money coming in from Victoria (by virtue of its larger population), and with the Big 4 Vic teams all finishing in the top half this year (and Hawthorn finishing just outside), a lot of optimistic/emotive bets are going to drive down the flag odds of these teams until well into the NAB cup.

The opposite argument broadly applies to the bottom half teams (note Hawthorn disclaimer above).

So chillax people and feel free to page the hosties anytime for another free drink on your off-the-radar flight!!*

*All terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Free drinks will cease and odds withdrawn immediately once your bookmaker hears the familiar sound of spine-rattling Suban hip-and-shoulder on an opposing CHB, the sight of Hilly breaking 3 tackles in quick succession, or the sight of Pav reaching for the throat of a Geelong ranga.

very compelling thoughts.like it.

 

[Rob]

A few injuries to key players and it's a realistic possibility. I don't think we've got the worst list (i'd give that to Melbourne given their decent kids are still likely to have little impact), but we're not far off.
But we were pretty crap last season and we still managed to win enough games at home. And I think we should be a better side than last year on paper.

 

[E Shed]

Much rather fly under the radar. I dread it when everyones gets on us before the season starts.

 

[samseenee]

Fremantle are also tipped to claim Andrew Foster as a mature-age rookie. He was de-listed by the club at the end of last season, has been training with the Dockers and is expected to remain in the system at Fremantle.

In an indication that the talented, yet injury-riddled, midfielder could find himself staying at Fremantle, his No. 21 jumper wasn't handed out yesterday when the club released its new allocation of numbers.

That is aout the only bit that I found belivieable....

 

[MorabitoISGUN]

Dont worry i mean half of them are probably from Melbourne and they dont pay much attention to freo.

and anyway do you really think we will finish last. and here in Melbourne there have also been some critics saying we will finish 8th.

well we verse Melbourne in PRE season. lets see whos better that game

 

[Side Bet]

So we should all be able to make money from this

 

[Ysaye]

So we should all be able to make money from this

Or pick up Tom Mitchell with the first non-gold coast pick in the NAB 2010 National Draft....

 

[The Night Shift]

Meh.. who cares if they or anyone else don't rate us..

Could be a blessing allowing us to pass under the radar for a while if we can pull our shit together for the first 4 rounds next season...

 

[Frigate]

I am quite happy about the odds this year. I think they are the most realistic they have been in some time.

I can not see us taking out the spoon this year, and believe we have a chance at making the 8. I have jumped on at $4.50 to make the 8 as it is a fair bet IMO (good novelty bet). Things will have to go right with injuries, and we will have to win most of our home games. Should be an interesting season. Just looking forward to seeing all the youngsters out on the track,

 

[bigkev bleeds purple]

The make-up of a bookie's board reflects the bets he's holding, what he thinks his competing bookmakers are holding (and might lay off on him later) and the size and type of future bets (which he bases largely on his knowledge of past trends and the behaviour of his largest clients).

He'll have a good knowledge of the capabilities of the 16 playing groups and their coaching panels, which he might (partially) build into his prices, but rarely does he go out there to take on the Joe Punters with his own world view.

His is a business based on actual and expected cashflows and percentages. In his perfect world what he hopes to end up with is a book that makes money regardless of whether any one team finishes 1st or 16th (i.e., arbitrage).

So with most money coming in from Victoria (by virtue of its larger population), and with the Big 4 Vic teams all finishing in the top half this year (and Hawthorn finishing just outside), a lot of optimistic/emotive bets are going to drive down the flag odds of these teams until well into the NAB cup.

The opposite argument broadly applies to the bottom half teams (note Hawthorn disclaimer above).

So chillax people and feel free to page the hosties anytime for another free drink on your off-the-radar flight!!*

*All terms and conditions are subject to change without notice. Free drinks will cease and odds withdrawn immediately once your bookmaker hears the familiar sound of spine-rattling Suban hip-and-shoulder on an opposing CHB, the sight of Hilly breaking 3 tackles in quick succession, or the sight of Pav reaching for the throat of a Geelong ranga.

You belong in the punting thread, good sir.

 

[Alfonz]

It is impossible to predict so far out, but right now if you picked the favourite for each game we would be 2-11 and end up with maybe 5-6 wins. Such a record would put us very close to the spoon. We'd like to think we are more capable than that, but until we prove this (i.e. next year), the bookies odds right now can not be considered unrealistic.

 

[DockerA]

No chance in hell we will win the spoon

 

[Dormammu]

You belong in the punting thread, good sir.

My Gambling Anonymous sponsor might beg to differ.

 

[bigkev bleeds purple]

I should've realised someone with such an intricate knowledge of the art of gambling would've known that it's a fool's trade.

I'm pretty sure I just called myself a fool.

 

[docker_champ29]

I reckon this is good thing. Don't realy care what the bookies say. They're always way off when it comes to Fremantle.