Swine Flu

[Dry Rot]

Yes Dry Rot.

I understand The CEO of CSL at their Christmas party tonight was rejoicing at the fact not only Swine flu in existence but their are mutations... there was indications that they expect to make a financial killing form it again,.

You think this is a joke? Google what fun they are having with this in Ukraine.

 

[Eagle87]

DR, you are never giving up on this until everyone is dead and you can say "I told you so" - are you?

Of course balance, in this matter, has never been your strong point.

http://blog.taragana.com/health/2009/12/10/britain-swine-flu-less-deadly-than-first-thought-about-100-times-less-lethal-than-1918-flu-16915/

From that article:

Britain: Swine flu less deadly than first thought

LONDON — Swine flu is far less dangerous than originally feared, British officials said Thursday — about 100 times less lethal than the 1918 Spanish flu.

To determine how deadly the virus is, the British health department tracked all reported swine flu patients hospitalized between July and November. In a paper published online in the British journal, BMJ, experts estimated that out of every 100,000 infected people in Britain, about 26 died.
That is about 100 times less deadly than the devastating 1918 Spanish flu, which killed at least 50 million people worldwide. And swine flu appears to be nearly 10 times less fatal than the flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968, the British numbers showed.

And:

Earlier this week, American researchers released a similar analysis of the virus and said swine flu, or H1N1, may turn out to be the mildest pandemic on record. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated swine flu has a lower death rate than seasonal flu.

Of course this is not in line with your entire post history and so you will ignore it.

Its true that it COULD get worse and its true that we MIGHT end up with a much worse mutation - but to date, there is no significant sign that this is the case.

 

[Dry Rot]

DR, you are never giving up on this until everyone is dead and you can say "I told you so" - are you?

Of course balance, in this matter, has never been your strong point.

http://blog.taragana.com/health/2009/12/10/britain-swine-flu-less-deadly-than-first-thought-about-100-times-less-lethal-than-1918-flu-16915/

From that article:

And:

Of course this is not in line with your entire post history and so you will ignore it.

Its true that it COULD get worse and its true that we MIGHT end up with a much worse mutation - but to date, there is no significant sign that this is the case.

Might help if you actually read my posts and links. Compare the UK and USA with Ukraine for a start. Maybe research the spread of Tamiflu resistance with normal seasonal flu too.

 

[Eagle87]

Might help if you actually read my posts and links. Compare the UK and USA with Ukraine for a start. Maybe research the spread of Tamiflu resistance with normal seasonal flu too.

I've read ALL your posts.

I've read about Ukraine.

So what you are tryin to argue is that despite what the authorities in the UK & US say and despite what the CDC say we should instead all cower in fear due to an outbreak in Ukraine which has been played up by politicians - google almost ANY decent media outlet to find the political angle. Latest reports show that cases in Ukraine (and most of Europe) are on the decline.

Seasonal Flu has had tamiflu resistance for ages - so what?

You are like a reliious fanatic who cant see the issue because of your clear bias.....

It might get worse but there is in fact overwhelming evidence that it is a VERY mild pandemic at this point.

Pretty simple.

 

[CAS79]

You think this is a joke? Google what fun they are having with this in Ukraine.

I didnt say it was a joke... im telling you the people who make the vaccine think it's hilarious as they make the money, Brian McNamee was all over it at CSL's Christmas party yesterday afternoon/last night making light.

The head of Australia's largest pharmaceutical company's who are a major player in the international swine flu vaccine market thinks it's a money spinner.

Don't shoot the messenger Dry Rot.

 

[Dry Rot]

I didnt say it was a joke... im telling you the people who make the vaccine think it's hilarious as they make the money, Brian McNamee was all over it at CSL's Christmas party yesterday afternoon/last night making light.

The head of Australia's largest pharmaceutical company's who are a major player in the international swine flu vaccine market thinks it's a money spinner.

Don't shoot the messenger Dry Rot.

My apologies, I thought that the Xmas party comments were a joke not a report.

No surprise, really but the worse joke is that their vaccine probably won't against the recent mutations.

 

[Dry Rot]

This hasn't gone away. Our second wave of swine flu is due here early autumn.

Tamiflu resistance continues to be found around the world, and likewise the D225G mutation is now being in various countries including Romania, Norway and Spain.

Transmission of Fatal H1N1 D225G/N Accelerates Concerns
Recombinomics Commentary 19:05
January 11, 2010

Recently released H1N1 HA sequences have significantly accelerated pandemic concerns. These sequences have either D225G, D225N, or both, and produce a case fatality rate at or near 100% in many countries. These receptor binding domain changes are on multiple backgrounds, but the transmission and expansion of these fatal sequences in eastern Europe, including Russia, have increased concerns, as has the "low reactor" status as determined by Mill Hill for a Ukraine sequence....

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01111002/D225NG_Transmission.html

Low reactor status means that the current vaccine has little effect on it.

 

[Pie eyed]

The pollies with the help of our ludicrously under educated media over played their hand on this subject the first time around.


People need to understand what the word "Pandemic" means and it's total lack of association with the words "fatal" or deadly".

The biggest risk to Australia was to the commercial swine population.

 

[Sloth]

I didnt say it was a joke... im telling you the people who make the vaccine think it's hilarious as they make the money, Brian McNamee was all over it at CSL's Christmas party yesterday afternoon/last night making light.

The head of Australia's largest pharmaceutical company's who are a major player in the international swine flu vaccine market thinks it's a money spinner.

Don't shoot the messenger Dry Rot.

The joke is they somehow convinced the governments to buy vaccines when they should have been buying antivirals.

 

[pacemaker]

Is this still a treat?

I ask because I haven't had a vaccine shot yet and I am travelling to Melbourne soon?

 

[_JC_]

Is this still a treat?

I ask because I haven't had a vaccine shot yet and I am travelling to Melbourne soon?

Yeah, you should get it so you can be one of the survivors when everyone dies.

Srs though its just like any other flu, young and old an unhealthy are at risk no one else is.

 

[Pie eyed]

The pollies , rightly, stocked up big in the event it became a real danger and now they are trying to get rid of the stock.

No reason not to get it if you're in a low risk group, but then again it will end up in the bin if you don't so Meh! personal choice really.

 

[Dry Rot]

The pollies , rightly, stocked up big in the event it became a real danger and now they are trying to get rid of the stock.

No reason not to get it if you're in a low risk group, but then again it will end up in the bin if you don't so Meh! personal choice really.

The choice is actually which scenario you want to bet on:

#1:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. The UK has dismantled its hotline and your average Yank reckons it's over. Tamiflu for the most part seems to still work (seasonal flu is now virtually 100% resistant to Tamiflu). Any mutations found have been random and spontaneous, and not passed on (WHO view).

However, they have had their second wave and usually flu pandemics come in three waves, hence the prediction of our second wave here soon.


#2:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. Worldwide surveillance is poor but two key mutations have been found in many countries, including here.

One mutation is Tamiflu resistance, which some consider is far more widespread than generally thought. The other is IIRC at the amino acid D225, which was involved in a nasty second wave in the Ukraine and surrounding countries, and is increasingly found in Spain and Italy. In addition, these two mutations are being found together now and the existing vaccine appeared to work poorly against a D225G sample from Ukraine.

The concern is that in past flu pandemics, the second or third wave (after the virus has mutated) has been nasty and deadly. An example is the very mild first wave in 1918, followed by a deadly wave in 1918/19.

 

[Sloth]

Seasonal Flu has had tamiflu resistance for ages - so what?

Say what? Do you have any articles to confirm this?

 

[Pie eyed]

Say what? Do you have any articles to confirm this?

True.
I don't have a link though. Has been widely reported as an aside in most Swine Flu related media.

 

[Dry Rot]

Say what? Do you have any articles to confirm this?

Here's one written before swine flu emerged:

...Tu said he was startled at how quickly the virus became resistant to Tamiflu. During the 2007-08 flu season, 11 percent of the H1N1virus, one of the two subtypes of influenza A, was found to be Tamiflu-resistant. So far this season, a small sampling tested by the CDC found the resistance has grown to 98 percent....

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/health/2008630221_flu15m.html

IIRC, virtually all of what is called seasonal flu is now Tamiflu resistant. Note the speed at which this happened.

The bad news is that the very same mutation H274Y which caused the resistance is seasonal flu has been found around the world in swine flu (in low numbers so far).

 

[Dry Rot]

The choice is actually which scenario you want to bet on:

#1:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. The UK has dismantled its hotline and your average Yank reckons it's over. Tamiflu for the most part seems to still work (seasonal flu is now virtually 100% resistant to Tamiflu). Any mutations found have been random and spontaneous, and not passed on (WHO view).

However, they have had their second wave and usually flu pandemics come in three waves, hence the prediction of our second wave here soon.


#2:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. Worldwide surveillance is poor but two key mutations have been found in many countries, including here.

One mutation is Tamiflu resistance, which some consider is far more widespread than generally thought. The other is IIRC at the amino acid D225, which was involved in a nasty second wave in the Ukraine and surrounding countries, and is increasingly found in Spain and Italy. In addition, these two mutations are being found together now and the existing vaccine appeared to work poorly against a D225G sample from Ukraine.

The concern is that in past flu pandemics, the second or third wave (after the virus has mutated) has been nasty and deadly. An example is the very mild first wave in 1918, followed by a deadly wave in 1918/19.

My best guess is that you have about 4 - 6 weeks to place your bets.

It seems that swine flu likes temperate temperatures, rather than the height of winter. It still has an avian component that likes a warmer body temp than our noses.

 

[Dry Rot]

The choice is actually which scenario you want to bet on:

#1:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. The UK has dismantled its hotline and your average Yank reckons it's over. Tamiflu for the most part seems to still work (seasonal flu is now virtually 100% resistant to Tamiflu). Any mutations found have been random and spontaneous, and not passed on (WHO view).

However, they have had their second wave and usually flu pandemics come in three waves, hence the prediction of our second wave here soon.


#2:

So far swine flu has virtually displaced seasonal flu and for most people in most places it has been relatively mild. Worldwide surveillance is poor but two key mutations have been found in many countries, including here.

One mutation is Tamiflu resistance, which some consider is far more widespread than generally thought. The other is IIRC at the amino acid D225, which was involved in a nasty second wave in the Ukraine and surrounding countries, and is increasingly found in Spain and Italy. In addition, these two mutations are being found together now and the existing vaccine appeared to work poorly against a D225G sample from Ukraine.

The concern is that in past flu pandemics, the second or third wave (after the virus has mutated) has been nasty and deadly. An example is the very mild first wave in 1918, followed by a deadly wave in 1918/19.

Update on scenario 2:

- First signs of a new first swine flu wave in the US (increase in infections of college folk and in flu like symptom patients visits to emergency wards)

- Increasing Tamiflu resistance found eg in Japan

- European surveillance of vaccine escape (ie swine flu virus has mutated away from the strain selected for the vaccine) - last results, 25% who had a swine flu vaccination got infected.

And FWIW, I have read that paediatric (kids) deaths were 5-7 higher than rates for seasonal flu in the last October wave in the US.

 

[stickman11]

Update on scenario 2:

- First signs of a new first swine flu wave in the US (increase in infections of college folk and in flu like symptom patients visits to emergency wards)

- Increasing Tamiflu resistance found eg in Japan

- European surveillance of vaccine escape (ie swine flu virus has mutated away from the strain selected for the vaccine) - last results, 25% who had a swine flu vaccination got infected.

And FWIW, I have read that paediatric (kids) deaths were 5-7 higher than rates for seasonal flu in the last October wave in the US.

Scientists have invented a new strain of swine flu + vaccine on the way!

 

[mantis]

Scientists have invented a new strain of swine flu + vaccine on the way!

GOLD.

 

[Dry Rot]

Scientists have invented a new strain of swine flu + vaccine on the way!

GOLD.

If either of you had any wit or knowledge you'd know that there is not enough time for evil conspiring Big Pharma to produce a new vaccine in time, and that WHO has the world using the current out of date vaccine.

Hope your lungs are in good nick and you don't have kids. Enjoy the next wave of swine flu.

 

[Sloth]

Hope your lungs are in good nick and you don't have kids. Enjoy the next wave of swine flu.

Not to worry, Laninamivir is on it's way. Only takes one puff and you're protected.

 

[Dry Rot]

Not to worry, Laninamivir is on it's way. Only takes one puff and you're protected.

IIRC that's not right - it's a Relenza variant therefore doesn't protect (like a vaccine) but treats an attack of flu like similar anti-virals.

IIRC worldwide licensing hasn't concluded yet - expected second half of 2010 so it's hard to see this being available here any earlier than in 2011 when the worst of this pandemic is over.

 

[Sloth]

IIRC that's not right - it's a Relenza variant therefore doesn't protect (like a vaccine) but treats an attack of flu like similar anti-virals.

It works as a preventative (prophylaxis).

 

[Dry Rot]

It works as a preventative (prophylaxis).

Not it's primary role at all, and such a role is increasingly being regarded as dubious after the rapid onset of Tamiflu resistance in various flus. Ed: such prophylaxis is short lived too, unlike a vaccine. Not real helpful over a flu season.

Here's some info about recent Phase 111 trials of Lani - note that the focus is on treatment, not prophylaxis.

http://www.biota.com.au/uploaded/154/1021542_25laniphaseiiiclinicaltri.pdf