Swine Flu

[ghost65]

Winters coming in japan, all those poor homeless people...

 

[Andre]

Winters coming in japan, all those poor homeless people...

Winter's coming? Southern Hemisphere, Northern Hemisphere. Look up what they mean for the seasons.

 

[ghost65]

don't play silly buggers, Andre, god decides when it is winter in japan, not science.

 

[Sloth]

I hope you guys are in on BTA...

Biota shares soar 58pc on US influenza drug contract
SHARES in drug development company Biota jumped as much as 58 per cent today after winning a $US231 million ($224m) contract to develop the influenza antiviral Laninamivir in the US.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...za-drug-contract/story-e6frg97f-1226031887170

 

[Dry Rot]

Lots of nasty planets lining up now for our winter:

1. Good data that the current flu vax doesn't work very well anymore (UK and USA)

2. Re above, good data across Europe of antigenic shift for vaccine escape (first found here IIRC late winter last year) (vaccine escape = flu has mutated, so no longer matches the vaccine, nor previous exposure/infection)

3. Eerily almost 2 years to the day, a new killer strain of swine flu now emerging in Mexico see http://www.google.com.au/search?q=p...=lang_en&ft=i&cr=&safe=images&tbs=qdr:w,qdr:w

Awaiting sequences from Mexico, but given the fast onset of viral pneumonia it may mean that the mutation D225G* is in play.


*Has been found in the last 2 years in swine flu at low rates NB the Ukraine. Last seen in a major pandemic in 1918-19 Spanish Flu and thought to account for the high number of casualties then.

D225G seems to be now joining up with the vaccine escape mutations to form a deadly combo. See http://pf11.blogspot.com/

Never seen this before (bad translation from Mexico)

The JSII reiterated that health fences have been installed "within 50 square blocks of housing for those affected with the virus, the above coupled with the immediate attention of the people showing symptoms of the disease."

http://translate.google.com/transla...-SearchBox&rlz=1I7GGLL_en&tbs=qdr:d&prmd=ivns

 

[Dry Rot]

Getting quite nasty in Mexico now, with some desperate measures like vaccination fences, training courses for ICU and patients with breathing difficulties and nose bleeds

Similarly, vaccination fences implements the authority to prevent the spread of the virus within 50 block radius of the infected areas where they reside, are progressing slowly, since the authority has implemented only 9 near of the 28 that yesterday would be required to perform....


The above translation describes use of vaccination “fences” to control the spread of H1N1. These approaches are destined to fail. Vaccination is most useful when administered prior to an influenza outbreak. The novel H1N1 was noted in Juarez, Chihuahua in March and has spread rapidly. Recently a red alert was issued for Tamaulipas in northern Mexico because of a spike in suspect H1N1 cases and the government announced a plan for training courses on treating H1N1 patients in the ICU.

Moreover, anecdotal reports describe emergency room patients with breathing difficulties and nose bleeds, as ICU beds fill up in Chihuahua and other states in northern Mexico, raising concerns that D225G and D225N are present, as seen in Ukraine.. The novel H1N1 is spreading rapidly and vaccination campaigns are unlikely to significantly slow the spread.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04101104/H1N1_Chihuahua_Futile_Fences.html

 

[Lance Uppercut]

ah good, I'm off to Mexico in 4 weeks. I'll bring some back for everybody

 

[Dry Rot]

Soon it will be time for the Southern Hemisphere to show where swine flu is at.

It's changed so much that the two year old vaccine will be of a little use "a cruel hoax" as one commentator says. US Defence dept data supports this.

Which leaves the anti-virals Tamiflu and Relenza.

Already it's giving grief in South Africa but the most interesting news is a series of sequences from Singapore and northern Aust which shows some nasty new mutations are here already.

Looks like Tamiflu will be useless and the efficacy of Relenza is damaged. Rates of flu in northern Aust have seriously risen.

http://fluboard.rhizalabs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=7225

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2011/06/08/doctors-brace-for-influenza-epidemic/

This winter is looking very interesting here.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Well I survived Mexico, which is good as it means I have 3 boxes of Relenza tucked away

 

[Dry Rot]

Well I survived Mexico, which is good as it means I have 3 boxes of Relenza tucked away

You may need it here.

Good trip?

 

[Pie eyed]

How many people have died directly* from Swine Flu?

*Not had an existing condition worsened.

 

[Dry Rot]

How many people have died directly* from Swine Flu?

*Not had an existing condition worsened.

Good question, but the figures are fudged. Also note that many/most deaths from flu are from resultant pneumonia.

 

[Pie eyed]

Good question, but the figures are fudged. Also note that many/most deaths from flu are from resultant pneumonia.

I have not heard anywhere near the "panic" reporting which accompanied the first wave of Swine Flu. Generally I think the authorities are best to over emphasise a threat. Better safe than sorry, but the media always go over the top in a massive way when reporting. Once they have got their "mileage" from even a real threat though the ball is dropped and the issue is rarely raised again unless a celebrity or "journalist" succumbs to the problem.

 

[drd23]

How many people have died directly* from Swine Flu?

*Not had an existing condition worsened.

I dont know the exact figures but I've seen healthy people in their 20s in ICU on ECMO (a heart/lung machine) for weeks because of swine flu. The threat is certainly real

 

[Pie eyed]

I dont know the exact figures but I've seen healthy people in their 20s in ICU on ECMO (a heart/lung machine) for weeks because of swine flu. The threat is certainly real

I don't doubt it.
Just looking for the real figures as a method of assessing the real likely impact.

 

[cancat]

The FDA investigation into CSL's response to adverse reactions in children possibly caused by their anti-flu drug Fluvax is quite damning.

More than 410 adverse reactions in children under five were reported to health authorities before Fluvax was withdrawn, including 67 cases of convulsions, high fever and vomiting.
..
..
In the letter to CSL chief executive Brian McNamee the FDA said there are a “number of significant objectionable conditions relating to your facility’s compliance with [current good manufacturing practice]” and criticised CSL’s response to the convulsion scandal in children last year.


“You failed to thoroughly investigate any unexplained discrepancy, or the failure of a batch or any of its components to meet any of its specifications, and failed to extend the investigation to other batches of the same drug product and other drug products that may have been associated with the specific failure or discrepancy,” said the letter.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/csl-vaccine-investigation-inadequate/story-e6frf7jo-1226079852949

 

[Dry Rot]

I don't doubt it.
Just looking for the real figures as a method of assessing the real likely impact.

Short story is that most govts only report lab confirmed swine flu deaths as swine flu deaths. By far the vast majority of cases, fatal or otherwise, are not tested, they're just treated.

Hence dodgy figures.

 

[Dry Rot]

I dont know the exact figures but I've seen healthy people in their 20s in ICU on ECMO (a heart/lung machine) for weeks because of swine flu. The threat is certainly real

A couple of figures that are pretty well accepted:

- Seasonal deaths: 90% > 65 years (as you'd expect, it nails frail old people and one reason it's recommended they get a pneumonia vax)

- Swine flu deaths 90% < 65 years (you don't expect younger/healthy/fitter folk to die from flu)

 

[Inferno]

I had swine flu, or at least a flu when swine flu was at its peak in media attention back in 2009. Worst I've ever felt, was glued to the couch for a week and had to basically drag myself to school (was in year 12 at the time, didn't have much of a choice) once I wasn't contagious. Regularly felt like I was drowning from all the fluid, chest muscles were aching from all the coughing, massive headache etc. It was pretty contagious as well, within a day or two of my dad getting it both my mum and I got it as well. She ended up in hospital with pneumonia from it too.

Nasty stuff.

 

[buddy23]

Well I survived Mexico, which is good as it means I have 3 boxes of Relenza tucked away

Did you enjoy it? Mexico is an awesome country! Great people, great food & drink, great beaches & interesting sightseeing.

 

[Dry Rot]

I had swine flu, or at least a flu when swine flu was at its peak in media attention back in 2009. Worst I've ever felt, was glued to the couch for a week and had to basically drag myself to school (was in year 12 at the time, didn't have much of a choice) once I wasn't contagious. Regularly felt like I was drowning from all the fluid, chest muscles were aching from all the coughing, massive headache etc. It was pretty contagious as well, within a day or two of my dad getting it both my mum and I got it as well. She ended up in hospital with pneumonia from it too.

Nasty stuff.

Yes, the bolded bits shouldn't happen with seasonal flu in those age brackets. See my earlier post re age fatalities.

There are two bits of bad news for you.

From all reports Swine Flu 2011 is nastier than the relatively mild 2009 version, and because it has mutated so much you will have little prior immunity and therefore be ripe for another attack from the new version this winter. Ditto the vaccine probably won't work either.

 

[Dry Rot]

I dont know the exact figures but I've seen healthy people in their 20s in ICU on ECMO (a heart/lung machine) for weeks because of swine flu. The threat is certainly real

Are you a medical person? Where are you located?

You could be useful for first hand reports over the next three months.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

You may need it here.

Good trip?

unbelievable. Had the greatest time ever. Not unhappy to have the meds for here at all either

Did you enjoy it? Mexico is an awesome country! Great people, great food & drink, great beaches & interesting sightseeing.

Loved it. We also did Peru, Boliva and Brazil. But absolutely adored Mexico - stayed at Playa on the Caribbean. Just incredible

 

[Dry Rot]

Looks like it is now starting here

Flu outbreak grips Australia

Belinda Tasker, AAP National Medical Correspondent
July 19, 2011 - 3:24PM

Australia is in the grip of a grim flu outbreak, with the number of influenza cases four times higher than a year ago. Experts believe the rise could be linked to the sudden deluge of wet weather and floods earlier this year when there was an unusually high number of flu cases recorded. Particularly high rates of influenza have hit NSW, Queensland and South Australia with the H1N1 virus, popularly known as swine flu, and influenza B the most common strains.

Figures from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System show 7931 cases of influenza have been confirmed nationally so far this year, about four times higher than the 1989 cases recorded between January and July 2010. The number of flu cases seen around the time of the floods in early 2011 were significantly higher than in 2010. Since May alone, the number of cases have leapt by more than 200 per cent.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/flu-outbreak-grips-australia-20110719-1hmrk.html

 

[Dry Rot]

For those that are interested, it looks like a nasty mutant N3H2 winter and a vaccine mis-match.

http://www.google.org/flutrends/au/#AU

http://fluboard.rhizalabs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=8148