Analysis Sydney's depth - an analysis

[RUNVS]

A very good analysis there and I agree with almost all of it. However I would not put Biggs in the strugglers category as from what we saw this year he definitely has what it takes to make it in the AFL.

 

[Swandwagonner]

I like Biggs. Don't think it's fair to refer to him as struggling to get a game, although his inclusion may rely on injuries or resting of players. His best is probably not as good as Brandon Jack or Tommy Mitchell.

Goodsie will be playing most games next year. Mark my words. He'll be cherry ripe come round 1. The guy is immortal. They might not send him to Perth, but he'll play a lot of the games and retire once he has a third medal around his neck come September.

That Herald Sun article has massive wraps on Perris. Apparently the family are disappointed that he didn't get recruited directly onto the Senior list!!! Could be another gun. Might play 4 or 5 games for us this year and a full season in 2015.

We may pick up a couple of gunners in the draft too. Last few drafts have been good value for players that have player senior games - although time will tell on 2012 (Membrey was probably stiff to miss out on wearing the vest this year). 2010: Parker, AJ, Lamb, 2011: Mitchell, Nipper, The big Spangher. 2012: Membrey chomping at the bit, We could snap up another Parker in the draft this year.

 

[bungee]

I think 2013 was an anomaly. To have so many long term injuries to key players was far outside the norm of what we should reasonably expect. Should we worry about covering such an aberration ?

The reality is that premierships are won by teams who have a good game plan, who have sufficient good players to carry out that game plan and who manage to get those players on the field.

Our ideal amount of depth then is just enough backup to carry key players through any rest or injury periods while staying competitive enough to position for finals and providing sufficient support for key players to be available and sharp at the pointy end of the season.

If our depth is too great we risk us filling our team with jacks-of-everything and masters-of-nothing who will play consistently mediocre football week in week out.

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Incidentally I have no issue with Tippet being used in the ruck with Pyke and/or LRT.

 

[swansfan51]

I think 2013 was an anomaly. To have so many long term injuries to key players was far outside the norm of what we should reasonably expect. Should we worry about covering such an aberration ?

Did you not bother reading the stats from the other 5 years which were virtually identical?

 

[alanlau34]

Watched the round reviews on the official Swans website, probably confirmation bias but I noticed a lot of the highlights involved White, Everitt and Lamb.

Then again, probably just reinforces the view that they do some good things in matches, but not consistently enough.

I for one am not concerned about depth. Depth gets you into the top 4 but it won't win you a premiership. If our gun players get injured, no amount of 2nd rate depth players will be able to cover their loss.

 

[Bonz]

A very good analysis there and I agree with almost all of it. However I would not put Biggs in the strugglers category as from what we saw this year he definitely has what it takes to make it in the AFL.

Agreed!!!

I really like the look of Bigg's he was verygood for us late in the year.

It wouldn't surprise me if he was in our team from round 1 next year.

 

[hotpocket]

We should go after Lachie Hansen.

 

[Bonz]

We should go after Lachie Hansen.

We will have to wait until the end of next season now that trade period is over.

Also not sure we would want to match North Melbourne's valuation of a player who has been very injury prone throughout his career so far.

 

[hotpocket]

We will have to wait until the end of next season now that trade period is over.

Also not sure we would want to match North Melbourne's valuation of a player who has been very injury prone throughout his career so far.

I have a feeling he could be a restricted free agent at the end of next season..

 

[CAS79]

I have a feeling he could be a restricted free agent at the end of next season..

I think you could be right.

He could be a free agent and Lachie Hansen is very restricted on football abilty and heart

 

[hotpocket]

He could be a free agent and Lachie Hansen is very restricted on football abilty and heart

If his last season is anything to go by then I'd suggest you're very restricted in your football knowledge

 

[CAS79]

If his last season is anything to go by then I'd suggest you're very restricted in your football knowledge

If last season is anything to go on you might have a point about his ability. But he's 25 and spent a career of been 2nd to contests too often and poor decision making. He's had one good 2nd half to a season to date. Having watched a lot of his career I can not possibly be enthused about the idea of having him at Sydney.

 

[SM]

Our depth is seriously worrying looking at that. We want to hope we recruit a couple of gems in the draft.

 

[Swanhotels]

If last season is anything to go on you might have a point about his ability. But he's 25 and spent a career of been 2nd to contests too often and poor decision making. He's had one good 2nd half to a season to date. Having watched a lot of his career I can not possibly be enthused about the idea of having him at Sydney.

I could have sworn you were talking about Jessie white just then.

 

[hotpocket]

If last season is anything to go on you might have a point about his ability. But he's 25 and spent a career of been 2nd to contests too often and poor decision making. He's had one good 2nd half to a season to date. Having watched a lot of his career I can not possibly be enthused about the idea of having him at Sydney.

If you had been watching you'd probably realise his first half of the season in my opinion was stronger than the back half, his 2012 spent forward was solid for most of the season also. He's 25 and only just hitting his peak now. His elite endurance and the fact that he's finally settled in a particular role to me says he's set for a big 2014 and beyond, but given this is BF your summation will probably be the more accepted one.

 

[baja]

Did you not bother reading the stats from the other 5 years which were virtually identical?

Are those stats based on simple numbers or the quality and importance of said players?

 

[robbieando]

Are those stats based on simple numbers or the quality and importance of said players?

Clearly simple numbers. The stats are valid but each year has a different factor to account that the stats can't show or prove

 

[RUNVS]

Our depth is seriously worrying looking at that. We want to hope we recruit a couple of gems in the draft.

Well our pick 15 player is most likely going to turn out to be a complete dud but given how we recruit our two picks in the 30's should turn out to be good players

 

[swansfan51]

Clearly simple numbers. The stats are valid but each year has a different factor to account that the stats can't show or prove

The make-up of who misses what games is irrelevant to this analysis. Based on the past 6 seasons we will use ~35 players next year, undeniable fact. All I've done is attempt to show who those 35 players will be, and on average how many games they will each play.

 

[bungee]

Did you not bother reading the stats from the other 5 years which were virtually identical?

Identical yes in number but that's before analysis. The main difference in 2013 was the injuries to key players. We got bit parts from key players and our depth played out the season's major roles. We had both our forward line and our defence completely decimated by injury. Had our midfield not been so exceptional and worked so hard to cover them we'd have been lucky to make the finals.

 

[RUNVS]

Identical yes in number but that's before analysis. The main difference in 2013 was the injuries to key players. We got bit parts from key players and our depth played out the season's major roles. We had both our forward line and our defence completely decimated by injury. Had our midfield not been so exceptional and worked so hard to cover them we'd have been lucky to make the finals.

Oddly enough it was our midfield that completely died a month before the finals. The forward line and defence was operating okay but the midfield was completely terrible. From memory they didn't even look particularly good against St Kilda either.

 

[bungee]

Oddly enough it was our midfield that completely died a month before the finals. The forward line and defence was operating okay but the midfield was completely terrible. From memory they didn't even look particularly good against St Kilda either.

They were shagged. Carried the load all year. To see how much they were carrying you only have to look at how much we were dependent on their continuous two way running. They had to be everywhere. Mind you I think they'll be the fitter and better for it in 2014.

 

[RW]

They were shagged. Carried the load all year. To see how much they were carrying you only have to look at how much we were dependent on their continuous two way running. They had to be everywhere. Mind you I think they'll be the fitter and better for it in 2014.

This is very interesting, because the "conventional" wisdom says that teams with more players who play every game during the season have a better chance in the finals because of the stability in their line up (examples: Sydney in 2005, 2012). This seems to be changing as fitness is playing a bigger part than it used to, especially with the amount of running these guys do. Freo rested half their team in Round 23 against St Kilda and it paid off as they knocked off Geelong in the following week in the first final, and absolutely destroyed us in the prelim because they were much fresher. I wonder if the interchange cap will see a return of "tempo" footy as teams try to slow the game down more. Either way I agree I think our midfield will bounce back next year.

 

[Todman]

Well Franklin will have his customary 4 week rest due to " hamstrings ". I'm not opposed to that idea. He is the most damaging player in the game and you want him fresh come finals

You might add 2 to 3 for MRP for a high bump (remember he's got carry over points)

 

[baja]

You might add 2 to 3 for MRP for a high bump (remember he's got carry over points)

I hope its against Hawthorn be pretty funny on bigfooty.