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Team Rating System, update after Finals, Week Three

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Hawthorn +1 v Western Bulldogs
Sydney +14 v Adelaide

1. Sydney 30.8 (+1)
2. GWS 29.1 (-1)
3. Geelong 24.8
4. Adelaide 19.4
5. Western Bulldogs 13.1 (+2)
6. West Coast 12.7 (-1)
7. Hawthorn 6.6 (-1)
8. Colllingwood 1.4
9. Port Adelaide -1.5
10. St Kilda -2.6
11. North Melbourne -7.1
12. Melbourne -10.0
13. Richmond -17.0
14. Fremantle -22.1 (+1)
15. Gold Coast -22.5 (-1)
16. Carlton -24.6
17. Essendon -30.0
18. Brisbane -45.4

Note that there's a bit of a minus skew on the ratings come finals time - several strong teams' last match is a loss.

Geelong v Sydney +1
GWS +21 v Western Bulldogs



At this point, it's tempting to have a guess at the likely finals contenders next year. I'll take a plunge and suggest as a top eight (in no particular order)

GWS
Sydney
Adelaide
Geelong
Western Bulldogs
West Coast
Collingwood
St Kilda
 
Geelong v Sydney +1
GWS +21 v Western Bulldogs

Well, like most, my tipping has been ruined by the Bulldogs' late surge. Currently running at 4/8 in the finals (missing all three Bulldog wins, and GWS over Sydney).

1. Sydney +35.1
2. GWS +25.9
3. Adelaide +19.4 (+1)
4. Geelong +19.2 (-1)
5. Western Bulldogs +16.9
6. West Coast +12.7
7. Hawthorn +6.2
8. Collingwood +1.3
9. Port Adelaide -1.8
10. St Kilda -2.5
11. North Melbourne -6.9
12. Melbourne -11.3
13. Richmond -17.5
14. Fremantle -22.2
15. Gold Coast -23.1
16. Carlton -25.2
17. Essendon -30.6
18. Brisbane -46.8

And, my Grand Final tip. (Note that I don't apply home ground advantage for the Grand Final, but unlike the squiggle I don't have a separate algorithm).

Sydney +18
 

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Team Rating System, update after Finals, Week Three

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