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EDDIE MCGUIRE proposes 6-week, 21 match finals series with 16 teams. It's a mess and here's why.

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Imagine being Hawthorn last week and you are in 6th playing 11th (15th as it would be in Eddie's system) and you get those conditions in Tassie. They won pretty comfortably in the end but if it finished 55-50 no one would've been surprised.

I like that Ed tries to think outside the box but the AFL system rewards ladder position. That's why we have home finals for 1, 2, 5 and 6 and the double chance for 1-4 instead of a straight knockout 1v8, 2v7 etc. If the H&A season ended tomorrow Collingwood would be playing Freo again for "first" and Collingwood go into some kind of repechage if they lost. You wot m8? If we're going to go back to ranked winners and losers just have Collingwood play their first final vs 8th or 10th or 12th.

Top 8 bottom 8 with 16 teams was a neat system that allowed for a simple quarters-semis-final or the two versions of a top 8 we've had. Top 8 bottom 10 with 18 teams just means there are two more teams that miss out. This year there are probably 10 teams that can make finals or at least look like they wouldn't be embarrassed if they did. Last year Carlton made it with 13 wins, Collingwood didn't with 12 and two draws plus Freo had 12 and a draw and there were four teams on 11. You can usually mount a case that there isn't much between the teams in the 7th-12th bracket.

The bottom 6 teams currently have win rates of 33% or lower after 18 games (except Essendon who have a loss in hand). The AFL should be doing absolutely nothing to make those teams feel like they are playing for something. If you want to play something win more than 6 games out of 18.

If the AFL want to go down the NBA path and have more teams in finals contention (20 teams out of 30 is silly even though it loosely aligns with the number of teams trying each year) then they really just need to make it a final 10 or 12. I think 10 is plenty as 2/3 of teams making finals is rewarding mediocrity. You could do it as simply as having 7v10 and 8v9 instead of a bye week, then carry on with QF-SF-PF-GF as we have now. It's rare that the team in 7th is so good that playing an extra game vs 10th is some sort of affront to them.

The only good thing about Ed's system is that after Rd 21 WC and North don't get to participate any more.
 

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Seems shit.

I kind of like the idea of doing 17 rounds (18 teams, forget about marquee double ups ) and then having some sort of pre-finals arrangement so good teams get another look at good teams before the actual finals.

something like group them into three lots of 6 - top six play for positions in the 8, next six play for the last two spots - and the bottom six, well they can finish early get rid of those shit games and let their fans enjoy their weekends for a change.

Plenty wrong with that suggestion but it would be so much better than Eddie's suggestion and would make for some good quality viewing.
 
The crazy thing is, say this was the ladder at the end of the H&A season.

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You would have:
Adel (1st) vs GWS (7th)
Gee (3rd) vs Fre (5th)
Bris (2nd) vs GC (8th)
Coll (4th) vs WB (6th)

Haw (9th) vs Ess (15th)
Carl (11th) vs Port (13th)
Syd (10th) vs NM (16th)
StK (12th) vs Melb (14th)

If Adelaide were to lose, and Essendon were to somehow win, they would play each other in a knockout final in week 2 of this six week finals-series.

After losing in week one, Adelaide would be 18-6, Essendon would be 7-17, and both teams would be on the exact same mathematical footing, with both needing to win 5 consecutive knockout games (a 3.125% chance) of winning the premiership from week 2 onwards. That is crazy

As stated, if you increase the importance of games towards the bottom half of the ladder, you are unavoidably DECREASING the importance of games towards the top of the ladder. That is the trade-off Eddie doesn't understand.
 
The biggest complaint about the current home and away fixture is that the double up matches can unfairly favor teams due to the luck of facing teams that have unexpected poor seasons. Another anomaly occurs when teams play twice before playing another team once.

Now that the league plays a 23 game fixture there is a much easier solution to both scenarios that retains rivalries.

Split the previous season ladder into top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6 like it is now.

First 5 rounds teams play the other 5 teams in their own group. This can be spread over the 1st 8 rounds to satisfy any commercial or contractual obligations. eg Carlton v Richmond to open the season, ANZAC Day, Easter Monday and Kings Birthday matches.

All teams then play the other 17 teams with the double up games spread over the last 8 weeks at the other team's home ground.

The 23rd round will be a rivalry round with the WA Derby, SA Showdown, Queensland Q Clash, NSW Battle of the Bridge, and the 10 Victorian teams playing a rival that they don't play during the 1st 5 weeks (ie outside their group of 6).

If two teams from WA, SA, Qid or NSW happen to finish in the same group of 6, then their "rivalry" games will instead be against another team they only play once.
(eg Sydney finished 1st and GWS finished 4th last year - their "rivalry" round match would be against a team from the middle 6 from 2024 - see below).

Using the 2024 ladder after the finals...

Top 6 double ups - Brisbane Lions, Sydney Swans, Port Adelaide, Geelong, GWS Giants, Hawthorn

Middle 6 - Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Collingwood, Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda

Lower 6 - Gold Coast Suns, Melbourne, Adelaide Crows, West Coast Eagles, North Melbourne, Richmond

Rivalry Round from this model for 2025:

Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns,
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows,
Fremantle Dockers v West Coast Eagles,
Sydney Swans v Collingwood,
GWS v Western Bulldogs,
Geelong v Melbourne,
Hawthorn v Essendon,
Carlton v Richmond,
St Kilda v North Melbourne

TLDR; First 5 double up games - top 6 v top 6, middle 6 v middle 6, bottom 6 v bottom 6 from previous season, plus a rivalry round as 6th double up game, then play all 17 teams for a 23 game season.
 
It's a silly idea. Old Eddie doesn't like anyone questioning him either. He had a snarky go at a couple of panel members who asked him a question.

He reminds me of a dictator raving about some illogical bullshit, all his generals just glancing at each other thinking ‘wtf’ but too scared to tell him how shit of an idea it is.
 
Wildcard is shit.

Do it like this:

Wk 1
A: 3 v 6
B: 4 v 5
C: 7 v 10
D: 8 v 9

Wk 2:
E: 1 v Winner B (4 or 5)
F: 2 v Winner A (3 or 6)
G: Loser B v Winner D (4 or 5 v 8 or 9)
H: Loser A v Winner C (3 or 6 v 7 or 10)

Wk 3:
I: Loser E v Winner H (1,4 or 5 v 3,6,7 or 10)
J: Loser F v Winner G (2,3 or 6 v 4,5,8 or 9)

Wk 4:
K: Winner E v Winner J
L: Winner F v Winner I

Wk 5:

GF

Hope that confuses you more than Eddie’s plan. 😛
2 x Final Fives with a twist so no repeat games? Love it.
 

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Wildcard is shit.

Do it like this:

Wk 1
A: 3 v 6
B: 4 v 5
C: 7 v 10
D: 8 v 9

Wk 2:
E: 1 v Winner B (4 or 5)
F: 2 v Winner A (3 or 6)
G: Loser B v Winner D (4 or 5 v 8 or 9)
H: Loser A v Winner C (3 or 6 v 7 or 10)

Wk 3:
I: Loser E v Winner H (1,4 or 5 v 3,6,7 or 10)
J: Loser F v Winner G (2,3 or 6 v 4,5,8 or 9)

Wk 4:
K: Winner E v Winner J
L: Winner F v Winner I

Wk 5:

GF

Hope that confuses you more than Eddie’s plan. 😛

So under the current finals system we have 9 finals, under the wildcard proposal we have 11 finals and under your proposal we have 13 finals.

I can see the appeal in having more finals, it definitely needs to go to a top 10 regardless, to keep more teams invested for longer with so many teams now in the competition.
 
The only redeeming feature about this plan is that it doesn't refer to anything as a wildcard.

We have a single division competition. The wildcard concept is only relevant for multi divisional sports.

Anyone who refers to wildcards at all in an AFL context should automatically be ignored. If they can't understand that concept, they have no hope of coming up with a viable alternative to what we currently have.
We don’t even need a viable alternative. our finals are about as good as you could hope structure.

It’s all these greedy hyper capitalist types who just want to maximise revenue.
 

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Thanks for explaining OP. I heard Eddie bumbling through it and had absolutely no idea what he was crapping on about.

So lets say you finish 16th with four wins, you fluke a couple of wins in this finals system and all of a sudden your pick 3 turns into pick 11. Wouldn't be long until teams start 'resting players' for finals games.
 
Great analysis. I think they should just go with the simple 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th wildcard round, but only once there are 19 or 20 teams in the H&A.
They could do 12, first 4 get a bye, then 5vs12, 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10, 8 vs 9 in week 1.
Then i think you only need a more weeks, all games elimination. Assume top sides win,
1 vs8, 2vs 7, 3 vs6, 4 vs 8 in week 2, winners process to prelim finals.
 
Dead rubbers are a part of sport.

What isn't a part of sport is clubs getting gifted players because of where their fathers played. Maybe bin that first and then start talking about finals.

I am starting to agree with that despite how much my club has benefitted from it but I still stand by the idea that simply ‘you finished here so you get first pick’ isn’t a valid criteria either.

I really don’t know what makes it such an accepted pathway when junior sport is such a big thing and the code has a means of enabling clubs to attach themselves to junior player pools
 

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EDDIE MCGUIRE proposes 6-week, 21 match finals series with 16 teams. It's a mess and here's why.

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