The 20%?

[Gooseman]

I was listening to Mark Harvey on the weekend and he mentioned that he expected the list to change a further 20% at the end of the year. Who besides the obvious might be out the door?

My most likely candidates are:
Gilmore
Head
Browne
Campbell
Murphy
Foster
Drum

 

[Scham]

Some more maybes...

O'Brien
Grover
Solomon
Thornton

who knows? That time of the year always throws up a surprise.

 

[The Night Shift]

and most likely O'Brien unfortuately...

The Big Kep
Mundy & Peake to stay...

Thornton offers depth and experience like the others... considering the likely big turnover again this seasons end you'd think they'll hang onto some guys...

 

[dominguez]

Connelly will be cut too won't he? Browne, Campbell, Head and Gilmore the only certainties to depart at this stage. Murphy's contractual status throws a spanner into the works but I expect he'll go too. Drum has 3 weeks to save his career.

Brock just turned 21 a few months ago so I'd like to see him rookie listed this year or if he plays well for Peel next season re-drafted.

Solomon has been getting very little ground time so I wouldn't be surprised to see the club retain Grover, Thornton, Headland, Hasleby but push Solly into retirement. Thornton and Solomon have at most one season left, surely Solly offers more than Scottie in 2010 if you're only retaining one of the two?

 

[Moo]

My most likely candidates are:

Dead In the Water
Gilmore
Head
Browne
Campbell
Connelly
Drum

Not Well & A Few Sharks Swimming Near Them
O'Brien
Foster

If You Need One More Name to Keep Pratt
Solomon

I personally would not re-rookie Brock, unless the recruitment team see nothing of value at all in the rookie group.

Pratt, Broughton, De Boer, Pearce and VB - all would not be undeserving of a senior list spot ...though I am sure the club will play it more sensibly than a mass elevation.

3 or 4 solid picks in the ND, and then grab another 3 or 4 on the rookie list is the way to play it.

I'd still love to pick up Richardson.

 

[prattsta]

Connelly will be cut too won't he? Browne, Campbell, Head and Gilmore the only certainties to depart at this stage. Murphy's contractual status throws a spanner into the works but I expect he'll go too.

Agree with all that, though I'm not convinced we've seen the last of Murphy unfortunately.

Drum has 3 weeks to save his career.

Why does everyone just assume Drum would even want to re-sign with Fremantle?

Also, if he doesn't re-sign, it seems people expect a trade will be done. It's not happening. It'll be the Kepler Bradley deal all over again only we'll be in Essendon's position this time.

Brock just turned 21 a few months ago so I'd like to see him rookie listed this year or if he plays well for Peel next season re-drafted.

We have a truck load of players that can play the same role as BOB now. Not sure why we would waste a rookie spot on him when they are going to be so valuable.

Like you say, see how he goes in the WAFL next year then make a call in 2011. Unless he wins a Sandover I can't imagine anyone else being interested.

Solomon has been getting very little ground time so I wouldn't be surprised to see the club retain Grover, Thornton, Headland, Hasleby but push Solly into retirement. Thornton and Solomon have at most one season left, surely Solly offers more than Scottie in 2010 if you're only retaining one of the two?

Solly offers more than Thornton, but the great white flash has another year on his contract. It'll come down to a decision between Headland and Solomon.

 

[Kram]

I can't beleive Murphy and the White devil have another year on their contracts..

 

[brose]

20% is a fair wack.

along with those mentioned we might lose haze as well?

I'd say its a safe bet that drum & murph want to leave, I wouldn't write off their trade value either - they both have a lot of unrealised potential at afl level that we for one reason or another haven't managed to get out of them. Call me crazy but I reckon we'll get a trade for both. Stranger things have happened.

There might be a few blokes running around in the wafl who should be in the mix to join us - given GB's form & GC concessions.

Don't think harves will be too worried about depth next year either - our kids have done the job this year & we're still building. so expect (fingers crossed) most of the deadwood to go.

 

[dominguez]

Good post Prattsta.

Agree with all that, though I'm not convinced we've seen the last of Murphy unfortunately.

Dunn, Mourish, Collard and Longmuir were contracted when de-listed so we shouldn't persist with a dud ahead of some handy types simply because an error was made around 11 months ago.

Why does everyone just assume Drum would even want to re-sign with Fremantle?

Also, if he doesn't re-sign, it seems people expect a trade will be done. It's not happening. It'll be the Kepler Bradley deal all over again only we'll be in Essendon's position this time.

If I was Drum (or Kepler in 07) I'd prefer a trade to the uncertainty of waiting for the drafts in November/December. What if you get an injury between trade week and the drafts, what if you have a car accident, what if someone too good to pass on slides in the draft? There are plenty of variables so if no one offers a trade and Freo offer a contract he may take it. I doubt that will happen though.

It hasn't worked out for Drum at Fremantle so I'd be happy to do a deal similar to Solomons a couple of years ago to make sure he gets to where he wants to go. A mid range 3rd rounder (lets say pick 40) for Drum and our 4th rounder (say 51) would be fine with me.

We have a truck load of players that can play the same role as BOB now. Not sure why we would waste a rookie spot on him when they are going to be so valuable.

Like you say, see how he goes in the WAFL next year then make a call in 2011. Unless he wins a Sandover I can't imagine anyone else being interested.

With the draft age being pushed back I can't see there being a lot of talent available when the rookie draft rolls around. The player taken with our 3rd rookie pick will be taken around about pick 100 over all, and when you factor in the talent pool being depleted it's almost like being pick 140-150 in a normal year.

Brock had a strong resume pre-draft.
O'Brien made his senior debut for Peel Thunder in the West Australian Football League in 2005 as a 16 year old. He represented Western Australia in the national under 16 championships in 2004 and the national under 18 championships in both 2005 and 2006. He is also a graduate of the AIS/AFL academy and was a member of the national under 17 team which played against Ireland when they toured in 2006.

Solly offers more than Thornton, but the great white flash has another year on his contract. It'll come down to a decision between Headland and Solomon.

If I was Suban/Hill/Ruffles/etc I'd much rather have Solly floating across a HFF/HBF than Scottie.

 

[dominguez]

I wouldn't write off their trade value either - they both have a lot of unrealised potential at afl level that we for one reason or another haven't managed to get out of them. Call me crazy but I reckon we'll get a trade for both. Stranger things have happened.

Kepler Bradley had 4 years in the AFL system, was an earlier draft pick than Murphy and Drum, is more flexible, won a VFL B&F in his final season at the Bombers and got de-listed. Drum has also had 4 years in the system and his form has been shocking for Perth and Murphy has been an AFL player for 6 seasons now and his WAFL form is worse now than it was when he was a teenager.

I'll be rapt if we get a 3 rounder for either of them.

 

[Moo]

I'll be rapt if we get a 3 rounder for both of them.

 

[Rob]

20% is a fair wack.

Nah, it's only 8-9. More than average, but it won't completely decimate our list.

And it's about right.

 

[Lach72]

Nah, it's only 8-9. More than average, but it won't completely decimate our list.

And it's about right.

Given the progress the young blokes have made I'd be disappointed if we didn't do that many:

Head
Browne
Gilmore
Murphy
Thornton
Peake
Connolly
Drum? Wasn't too bad on the weekend though i thought
Obrien?
Campbell

 

[Clinteaux]

I would hope;

Head
Gilmore
Thortnon
BOb
Murphy
Browne

And in the effort to take it up to 20%
Foster
Connelly
Drum - if he wants to go

 

[theGav56]

If we cut that many then I think it is a sign that Harvey rates the draft this year quite highly, which is totally contrary to opinions on these boards. The stats for success in the deep areas of drafts is not good, although we are doing okay from the last draft.

dom, Collard and co were delisted but as I understand it if you delist players in their first year as rookies you must re-draft (as rookies) if they are not picked up. Didn't we have to pay the additional money for Collard's salary to take his wage up from a Rookie-listed player to what he was on with us?

Thornton and Murphy would be on a higher pay scale but I would not think we would be anywhere near having cap issues.

 

[Lach72]

If we cut that many then I think it is a sign that Harvey rates the draft this year quite highly, which is totally contrary to opinions on these boards. The stats for success in the deep areas of drafts is not good, although we are doing okay from the last draft.

Or our dumbarses so badly.

You can cut heavily and replenish with 3-5 from the draft, upgrade rookies like Broughton, Deboer and Pearce and then rookie some prospects.
That would still leaves us with the likes of Headland and Solly to chop next year when we need 3 spots

 

[Clay Davis]

So if we cut 7-8, upgrade 3 rookies and draft 4-5, that means our last pick is around pick 64-85.

Who's our crabbiest player? I nominate Adam Campbell. I reckon we could jag a pick 64-85 player better than him, even in a crappy draft.

There's also the consideration for trades. Who knows what it means? There are plenty of permutations. I do agree that the bottom 20% of our list is god awful, though.

 

[Lach72]

Head
Browne
Gilmore
Murphy
Thornton
Peake
Connolly
Drum? Wasn't too bad on the weekend though i thought
Obrien?
Campbell

I forgot Campbell off my list...the guy is getting 8 possessions a week for WP at the moment...there will be some kpf to rookie instead of him... could upgrade Pratt too...he's had a pretty good year for Swans I think

 

[Clay Davis]

Head
Browne
Gilmore
Murphy
Thornton
Peake
Connolly
Drum? Wasn't too bad on the weekend though i thought
Obrien?
Campbell

I forgot Campbell off my list...the guy is getting 8 possessions a week for WP at the moment...there will be some kpf to rookie instead of him... could upgrade Pratt too...he's had a pretty good year for Swans I think

Head
Browne
Gilmore
Campbell

Should be gone

Might get a trade for Drum + Murphy.

Is O'Brien worth rookieing?

My guess is Thornton will stay. Peake will probably stay. What is Connelly like? He's on the rookie list, isn't he?

 

[Lach72]

There's something about Obrien, which would lead me to keep him...played sonme good footy in the very limited time with the ones. Connellly is playing very ordinary footy in every report i've seen.
Peake just stands out as an ordinary footballer with no decision making skills

 

[Clay Davis]

There's something about Obrien, which would lead me to keep him...played sonme good footy in the very limited time with the ones. Connellly is playing very ordinary footy in every report i've seen.
Peake just stands out as an ordinary footballer with no decision making skills

Yeah, Peake probably gets a free pass to be retained because at some point in the distant past he looked like an AFL footballer.

I don't mind O'Brien. I'm not in raptures about him like some, but he was only drafted in 2006, which in my mind makes him a bit early to cut, especially since he's the only one left on our list from that draft.

If Connelly is ordinary then it's time to say goodbye. Has Shepheard surpassed him yet?

 

[prattsta]

Dunn, Mourish, Collard and Longmuir were contracted when de-listed so we shouldn't persist with a dud ahead of some handy types simply because an error was made around 11 months ago.

I don't disagree with you, not sure the club will see it the same way.

This is the list of players contracted until the end of the 2010 season-

Tarrant, Sandilands, Pavlich, McPharlin, Palmer, Hinkley, Mayne, Thornton, Murphy, Mundy, Hayden, Ibbotson, Grover, Ballantyne, Walters, Bucovaz, Ruffles, Hall.

There is a minimum of 3 selections that have to be made in the ND. Thornton and Murphy are the stand out delistings from that group. Grover and Hayden may retire. I'd hope that everyone else on that list would be retained - assuming they deserve to be.

(Note: Depending what happens this year, Hasleby, Headland and Solomon may also be in that group.)

If I was Drum (or Kepler in 07) I'd prefer a trade to the uncertainty of waiting for the drafts in November/December. What if you get an injury between trade week and the drafts, what if you have a car accident, what if someone too good to pass on slides in the draft? There are plenty of variables so if no one offers a trade and Freo offer a contract he may take it. I doubt that will happen though.

I'm sure if a club was willing to trade for Drum he'd go along with it. My point was more that an opposition club is unlikely to trade for Drum if they know Fremantle isn't going to re-sign him. It's highly unlikely more than 1-2 clubs would be interested in him. Best case, only 1 club - the team who finishes higher on the ladder - would need to trade for him.

It hasn't worked out for Drum at Fremantle so I'd be happy to do a deal similar to Solomons a couple of years ago to make sure he gets to where he wants to go. A mid range 3rd rounder (lets say pick 40) for Drum and our 4th rounder (say 51) would be fine with me.

As dissapointing an outcome as it is for a top 10 pick, that would suit me just fine.

With the draft age being pushed back I can't see there being a lot of talent available when the rookie draft rolls around. The player taken with our 3rd rookie pick will be taken around about pick 100 over all, and when you factor in the talent pool being depleted it's almost like being pick 140-150 in a normal year.

Yeah the depth won't be great but in a year like this, the rookie draft is all about taking a gamble on someone. Holding onto Brock is far to conservative IMO. He's injury prone, play's a position we've got the greatest depth in and he's very inconsistent in the WAFL.

I'm willing to take the risk that we'd be able to pick him up again in 2011 if we needed to.

Brock had a strong resume pre-draft.
O'Brien made his senior debut for Peel Thunder in the West Australian Football League in 2005 as a 16 year old. He represented Western Australia in the national under 16 championships in 2004 and the national under 18 championships in both 2005 and 2006. He is also a graduate of the AIS/AFL academy and was a member of the national under 17 team which played against Ireland when they toured in 2006.

What does his AFL resume look like?...

I like the way he goes about it, he's one of the few players from the Connelly years that seems to fit in with the players Harvey is drafting these days. If it came down to it I'd prefer another guy like Shepheard over O'Brien though.

If I was Suban/Hill/Ruffles/etc I'd much rather have Solly floating across a HFF/HBF than Scottie.

Agreed.

 

[Belnakor]

surely we have learnt our lesson with delisting people then rookie listing them? A complete and utter waste of time.

 

[Clay Davis]

surely we have learnt our lesson with delisting people then rookie listing them? A complete and utter waste of time.

Crowley?

 

[the doc]

Given the progress the young blokes have made I'd be disappointed if we didn't do that many:

Head - delist
Browne - delist
Gilmore - trade to Port if they are still interested, delist
Murphy - trade
Thornton - trade
Peake - trade
Connolly - delist
Drum - one year deal or trade
Obrien - re-rookie (are we able??)
Campbell

unsure
Solly - unsure but I feel that he at the edge of getting very average soon, offer him an assist coach position?

We probaly do not want more than 4 picks and want to be out by 3rd/th round.