The 2018 Superdraft revisited

[Pessimistic]

I did a quick look at draftguru using national draft picks only.

threshold for success for 194-5cm or above (we know a lot of it is bull) in 2018 draft is 20 games up to 105 games in 2012 (very few made that and none before 2012

first rounders 16 of 34 were success (48%) and for the rest 11 from 70 (15%) however 6 of the 11 talls drafted in later rounds in 2013 made it - half the total for 7 drafts - so the success rate in the other years is 8%

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Is 2018 too early so see what gems fell outside the first round?

I’m asking because in the years previous there seem to be a lot more gems taken late, but since 2018 all draftees after round 1 who’ve got games seem very much in the role player category

has hindsight (although it’s obviously still to play out) shown the ‘hawks need to get into the first round’ was prophetic?

Is it too early to declare 2018 hasn’t produced much at all outside the first round (not even beginning to discuss the definition of ‘super draft’)

2013-2014-2015 seem better candidates, but there’s twice as many years hindsight

Callum Wilkie in the rookie draft was a gem of a pick.

Has not missed a game since round 1 2019

 

[Ekomaira]

Callum Wilkie in the rookie draft was a gem of a pick.

Has not missed a game since round 1 2019

also in the leadership group too

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Thomas is clearly the better prospect compared with Lukosius, no matter how good Luko’s kicking might be. He’s effectively a third tall at either end of the ground, and Thomas is a contested ball winning mid who kicks goals, aka: the most valuable commodity in the game. Every coach and recruiter would take Tarryn based on his last season

Lukosius is currently just a taller Lachie Whitfield and he went pick 1. Will be getting used at CHF this year so let's wait and see.

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Some players from the 3rd round onwards form this draft have had an impact for sure:

Justin Mcinerney
Curtis Taylor
Bailey Scott
Jacob Koschitzke
Nick Hind
Noah Answerth
Lachlan Schultz

All played roughly 30 games or more. Tracking well.

An insider at the lions told me recently they rate Answerth in the same category as Berry and Mcluggage.

Answerth finally getting a chance in the best 22 this year?

 

[pulpdriver]

Next to useless at ground level!? What the actual fu**? One of the best things about him is how good he is at ground level and also how good his hands are (his handballing) for someone that tall.

He used to play midfield in the juniors until he had a huge growth spurt, late, and it shows. He’s extremely comfortable at ground level.

So much so that he was number 1 for ground ball gets inside the forward 50 for us for most, if not all of the 2020 season.

I’m also struggling to see how he’s not as “multi faceted” as Ben, given the fact his contested marking is vastly superior, he can also do it on the lead, he is in fact bloody good at ground level for someone that tall, he can push up to the wings and take pack marks there, stay back in the goalsquare, or wherever we need him to play, etc.

The fact he can hurt the opposition in so many ways is a big part of what makes him the talent/prospect he is.

There's a bundle that have replied but I'll reply to you because you were first and most comprehensively explained your position.

I'll admit right off the bat the description I used was hyperbolic and deliberately inflammatory. However, it was also based on my opinion that Max's spectacular overhead ability did not match what he offered at ground level. I had seen some instances of his work at ground level in matches as a neutral that frustrated me and made me think he needed a lot of work in that area.
BUT after the posts replying to me I checked out stats and he is indeed above average at ground level for a key forward. In fact he's coming close to Tom Hawkins for i50 ground ball gets which is absolutely elite for a key forward, let alone a key forward that is three years into their career with one year interrupted due to injury.
As I said some of his efforts I'd seen had been less than optimal and perhaps I'd fixated on them but stats don't lie.
I was wrong.

 

[Sphynx]

Thomas is clearly the better prospect compared with Lukosius, no matter how good Luko’s kicking might be. He’s effectively a third tall at either end of the ground, and Thomas is a contested ball winning mid who kicks goals, aka: the most valuable commodity in the game. Every coach and recruiter would take Tarryn based on his last season

He had a pretty devastating half a season. You could see it just clicked with him at a certain point where he realised he could dominate AFL players like he did to some in the Tassie Leagues as a kid, culminating in that Carlton game where he just had his way with Walsh/Dow/Cripps.

Pressure will now mount for him to back it up for a full season, as mentioned these guys are entering their 4th seasons and consistency now counts more than just flashes of potential. That's what your first four years are for.

I'm pretty confident Thomas will be a 20+ 1g+ player this year.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Thomas and Walsh would want to start playing in finals to keep the drive up. They’ve played for teams which have finished 12th, 17th and 18th or 16th, 11th and 13th since being drafted.

People are throwing around names like Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett, Fyfe, Oliver and Petracca but they all played finals within their first three years (four for Petracca including his ACL year) of senior footy. Took Dusty an extra year though and I guess he’s the most successful of the lot.

You see what happened to Cripps after years of fruitless dominance

 

[Sphynx]

Thomas and Walsh would want to start playing in finals to keep the drive up. They’ve played for teams which have finished 12th, 17th and 18th or 16th, 11th and 13th since being drafted.

People are throwing around names like Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett, Fyfe, Oliver and Petracca but they all played finals within their first three years (four for Petracca including his ACL year) of senior footy. Took Dusty an extra year though and I guess he’s the most successful of the lot.

You see what happened to Cripps after years of fruitless dominance

Oliver and Petracca played 1 final series prior to this one, then followed it up with 9th & then 17th.

Not sure "the drive" was as much as you were making out.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Thomas and Walsh would want to start playing in finals to keep the drive up. They’ve played for teams which have finished 12th, 17th and 18th or 16th, 11th and 13th since being drafted.

People are throwing around names like Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett, Fyfe, Oliver and Petracca but they all played finals within their first three years (four for Petracca including his ACL year) of senior footy. Took Dusty an extra year though and I guess he’s the most successful of the lot.

You see what happened to Cripps after years of fruitless dominance

Cripps got injured and the game moved away from rolling stoppages when it introduced shorter quarters. He is still the same clearance beast he always was but he doesn't get involved enough in transition like an Oliver does.

Nothing to do with our ladder position and I think both Thomas and Walsh are versatile enough to evolve wherever the game goes. That's the big question mark over Cripps next year and longer term.

 

[00Stinger]

Thomas and Walsh would want to start playing in finals to keep the drive up. They’ve played for teams which have finished 12th, 17th and 18th or 16th, 11th and 13th since being drafted.

People are throwing around names like Judd, Dangerfield, Ablett, Fyfe, Oliver and Petracca but they all played finals within their first three years (four for Petracca including his ACL year) of senior footy. Took Dusty an extra year though and I guess he’s the most successful of the lot.

You see what happened to Cripps after years of fruitless dominance

Not sure playing/not playing finals is going to judge Walsh

Fwiw its much harder to be that dominate in a poor team than it is a great team

 

[00Stinger]

Cripps got injured and the game moved away from rolling stoppages when it introduced shorter quarters. He is still the same clearance beast he always was but he doesn't get involved enough in transition like an Oliver does.

2020 had shortened quarters, 2021 was back to normal

His clearance numbers are down about 40% on his 2019 figures and he was 32nd in the league for clearances per game in 2021, how does that equate into him still being a clearance beast?

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

2020 had shortened quarters, 2021 was back to normal

His clearance numbers are down about 40% on his 2019 figures and he was 32nd in the league for clearances per game in 2021, how does that equate into him still being a clearance beast?

The rise of Walsh and the introduction of Kennedy in the second half of the season would have impacted those numbers, not to mention his back injury. There were also 10 more stoppages per game in 2019.

Still has that ability around the ball IMO. Just not as important in today's version of the game.

 

[WillHayward]

Very solid top 9.Not sure about Blakey though.

Blakey settling in nicely has a half back flanker

But yeah. He's a bit behind the others.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Oliver and Petracca played 1 final series prior to this one, then followed it up with 9th & then 17th.

Not sure "the drive" was as much as you were making out.

The 9th was before the finals series - at least they were going close.

 

[Pessimistic]

Oliver and Petracca played 1 final series prior to this one, then followed it up with 9th & then 17th.

Not sure "the drive" was as much as you were making out.

hodge was a notorious ‘late developer’

 

[Sphynx]

The 9th was before the finals series - at least they were going close.

Huh?

You finished 17th in 2019 and 9th in 2020.

You made the prelim in 2018.

Unless you are referring to finishing 9th in 2017?

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Huh?

You finished 17th in 2019 and 9th in 2020.

You made the prelim in 2018.

Unless you are referring to finishing 9th in 2017?

Oh yeah I forgot that we finished 9th in 2020, that season is such a non-event in my mind now

 

[weltschmerz]

If I could take one guy from that draft and add him to the Dogs, it’d probably be Lukosius. Rankine at his full potential would be top of the list but I don’t know if he’s going to reach it.

 

[schmuttt]

Callum Wilkie in the rookie draft was a gem of a pick.

Has not missed a game since round 1 2019

St Kilda have drafted quite well with their later picks actually. Obviously butchered some high picks some time ago now but they're slowly righting the ship.

 

[Pessimistic]

I did a quick look at draftguru using national draft picks only.

threshold for success for 194-5cm or above (we know a lot of it is bull) in 2018 draft is 20 games up to 105 games in 2012 (very few made that and none before 2012

first rounders 16 of 34 were success (48%) and for the rest 11 from 70 (15%) however 6 of the 11 talls drafted in later rounds in 2013 made it - half the total for 7 drafts - so the success rate in the other years is 8%

2013 - taller players (includes bont and cripps who are dual position)


threshold for size is 193 in this case, threshold for success is 95 games played since

In first round (up to pick 20)
Success: Bontempelli(WB) #4 171 games Cripps(carl) #13 138 games McCarthy(GWS-Fre) #14 70 games
Fail: *Boyd(GWS-WB) #1 61 games Apeness(Fre) #17 Leslie(GC) #20 28 games
In subsequent rounds
Success: Gardiner(BL) #22 133 games McStay(BL) #25 139 games Lobb(GWS-Fre) #29 119 games Nankervis(Syd-Rich) #35 98 games
Kolodjashnii(Geel) #41 132 Games Barass (WCE) #43 99 games Brown (NM-Mel) #47 143 games
Fail: Pearce(Fre) # 37 63 games Giles(Carl) #39 no games Allir(Syd-PtA) #44 88 games * Harvey(PtA) #45 no games Freeman (BL) #62 no games Marsh(coll) #77 no games

50% success in first round (although *Boyd?)
Better than 50% in subsequent rounds when the success rate in other drafts similar picks is about 8% for 'talls'

a candidate for 'super draft'? BL seem to have done particularly well 66% strike rate

 

[The_MCG]

Yeah makes it even more unlikely he will be there in 2 years

Of recent time I can only think of Buddy, Bont, Cripps (who then fell off a cliff) & Oliver

I've probably missed some too

To be fair, the club hasn't done Cripps any favours over the past couple of years playing him injured.

 

[00Stinger]

To be fair, the club hasn't done Cripps any favours over the past couple of years playing him injured.

still rolling out the injured excuse

He has missed 2 games in the last 2 years, that excuse has run its course

 

[Benga]

Been well documented (and blindingly obvious) he was playing through injury.

 

[Nutjob]

St Kilda have drafted quite well with their later picks actually. Obviously butchered some high picks some time ago now but they're slowly righting the ship.

What are your thoughts on Clark and Coffield?


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