The AFL wants 22 teams. Name your next four.

[eastfreo75]

Ah, one of my favourite threads revisited.

For me, it’s:

Canberra 20
Sunshine Coast 21
Newcastle 22

Brisbane 2 tempting but there’s only limited expansion options and I think doing new unrepresented cities and NSW and QLD 3 together would be good for momentum there (I don’t count ACT as NSW3).

After that, I’d be looking at Auckland and South West WA (50 years time) then maybe Darwin and Cairns after that depending on climate and population.

So 24-26 teams max (yes, I am crazy).

Names: Canberra Rams, Sunshine Coast Sharks, Newcastle Hunters, Auckland Pirates, South West Dolphins, Darwin Dingoes, Cairns Crocodiles.

Warragul Wombats.

 

[1990crow]

Warragul Wombats.

Broome Sweepers

 

[Coolangatta]

Team 21 and 22 to be North and Saints relocated and I agree.

Yeah if they can keep it to 24 max with all of those inclusions then great.

Wouldn’t need a conference system, just everyone plays each other once and a top 12 finals system.

Could call the WA team South West Sharks if Sunny Coast get the Roos or Saints.

 

[Thailander]

20 - Canberra Cockatoos (Up the Co*ks!)
21 - Perth Pylons
22 - Norwood Nords

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Ah, one of my favourite threads revisited.

For me, it’s:

Canberra 20
Sunshine Coast 21
Newcastle 22

Brisbane 2 tempting but there’s only limited expansion options and I think doing new unrepresented cities and NSW and QLD 3 together would be good for momentum there (I don’t count ACT as NSW3).

After that, I’d be looking at Auckland and South West WA (50 years time) then maybe Darwin and Cairns after that depending on climate and population.

So 24-26 teams max (yes, I am crazy).

Names: Canberra Rams, Sunshine Coast Sharks, Newcastle Hunters, Auckland Pirates, South West Dolphins, Darwin Dingoes, Cairns Crocodiles.

I can’t see any universe in which QLD and NSW get 3rd teams before WA and SA. Completely unsustainable, and nowhere near enough support in those states to get a good enough membership base.

Only way SA and WA don’t come next is if the AFL goes for the territories

 

[Canberra Pear]

I can’t see any universe in which QLD and NSW get 3rd teams before WA and SA. Completely unsustainable, and nowhere near enough support in those states to get a good enough membership base.

Only way SA and WA don’t come next is if the AFL goes for the territories

No chance that SA gets a another team. Doesn't have the population/economy. I say this with love for my team, but Port are a middling club at best, and a third team would struggle to reach half of the support Port has.

WA could support another team, but what's the point when you have an equally viable, but new, market in Canberra.

 

[Coolangatta]

I can’t see any universe in which QLD and NSW get 3rd teams before WA and SA. Completely unsustainable, and nowhere near enough support in those states to get a good enough membership base.

Only way SA and WA don’t come next is if the AFL goes for the territories

That’s true, now, but might not be true in 25-30 years time, which is when, presumably, a 21st and 22nd team would come in.

NT is less viable than all of them and NZ may be potentially the most viable location for a 21st team if they have an AFL standard ground to play games in Auckland in to test it.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

No chance that SA gets a another team. Doesn't have the population/economy. I say this with love for my team, but Port are a middling club at best, and a third team would struggle to reach half of the support Port has.

WA could support another team, but what's the point when you have an equally viable, but new, market in Canberra.

I already said the only way it's not WA or SA is if it's the territories, which is Canberra / Darwin teams.

QLD and NSW may be bigger than WA and SA, but neither are football states, and both have sides which struggle for attendance and membership as it is. There's already a lot of talk about the failure of Gold Coast in particular - no way would they explore another QLD team when WA is a near-guarantee to build at least a solid membership base for a 3rd side, especially if they target the areas popular with West Coast fans (either down south, or Joondalup)

 

[Canberra Pear]

I already said the only way it's not WA or SA is if it's the territories, which is Canberra / Darwin teams.

QLD and NSW may be bigger than WA and SA, but neither are football states, and both have sides which struggle for attendance and membership as it is. There's already a lot of talk about the failure of Gold Coast in particular - no way would they explore another QLD team when WA is a near-guarantee to build at least a solid membership base for a 3rd side, especially if they target the areas popular with West Coast fans (either down south, or Joondalup)

Don't think it could be Darwin either. A remote city of 140k can't support a team without absolutely massive and long-lived government support.

A third Perth team and Canberra are the only viable options I can see for the 20th team.

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Don't think it could be Darwin either. A remote city of 140k can't support a team without absolutely massive and long-lived government support.

A third Perth team and Canberra are the only viable options I can see for the 20th team.

Oh I can't see Darwin ever being viable anyway - just thought that if, like Tassie, they decide it's worth expanding despite not likely being commercially viable, then it's an option. Canberra is the obvious 20th imo

If it's another 20+ years without major expansion, then the entire landscape could change in that time too. Might see mergers, relocations or expansions into a surprise area for all we know

 

[Coolangatta]

The AFL thinking needs to be that they can have Canberra and WA3 if they want, just not yet. It doesn’t have to be one or the other forever, though.

Get Canberra done and look at WA3 in the future. They’d be a great option for team 22 if the AFL only has one expansion target in mind in the next 25-30 years.

I’d be all for WA3 as the 20th club now if Canberra were already in the league.

 

[Coolangatta]

What I would want to see but will never happen:

Roos relocate to Canberra, Perth team 20.

25-30 years later: Saints relocate to Sunshine Coast, New Zealand and Newcastle teams 21 and 22.

50-60 years later: NT and NQ teams 23-24.

Everyone plays each other once, top 12 finals system over four weeks.

 

[wormy]

The upcoming teams will be dependant on government infrastructure - stadiums.

Canberra is the obvious next choice for a team. However the nrl are begging for a new rectangle stadium there. If they get that, it'll be ages before manuka can get the funds to do a proper upgrade that the AFL will accept as acceptable to provide a licence. Tassie has proved that a decent 20k+ modern stadium is vital. Manuka oval with a few band-aid extensions won't cut it. If the AFL and big bash can team up to lobby government to build an oval stadium instead of a rectangular one, Canberra is a lock for team 20

A third Queensland team could be in the running depending on what the government provides surrounding the Olympics. There's huge growth to be had in Queensland, and more local rivalry helps.

Darwin is the popular choice amongst fans . However they neither have the stadium nor population to support a team yet. However, I think the AFL would make a lot back by way of being a truly national game, which would somewhat offset the financial loss by the team. I'd suggest a 'Northern' team which splits its home games between Darwin and Cairns, also representing North Queensland, and perhaps playing a game in Alice Springs.

WA3 and SA3 are easy options but the AFL doesn't stand to gain as much from these as much as the aforementioned. Forget about Newcastle.

Here's what I predict:
2028 - Tassie
2032 - Brisbane/Sunshine Coast
2040s - Canberra
2040s - Northern Australia

If Canberra can get a stadium sorted, they'll sneak in as the 20th team, after which the AFL won't introduce the other 2 teams for another 15 odd years.

There's a chance that all 3 locations after tassie fall over if they can't get stadiums built, in which case the AFL might cave, and introduce a 3rd WA team. Because it won't want to have an odd number for too long.

 

[Coolangatta]

The upcoming teams will be dependant on government infrastructure - stadiums.

Canberra is the obvious next choice for a team. However the nrl are begging for a new rectangle stadium there. If they get that, it'll be ages before manuka can get the funds to do a proper upgrade that the AFL will accept as acceptable to provide a licence. Tassie has proved that a decent 20k+ modern stadium is vital. Manuka oval with a few band-aid extensions won't cut it. If the AFL and big bash can team up to lobby government to build an oval stadium instead of a rectangular one, Canberra is a lock for team 20

A third Queensland team could be in the running depending on what the government provides surrounding the Olympics. There's huge growth to be had in Queensland, and more local rivalry helps.

Darwin is the popular choice amongst fans . However they neither have the stadium nor population to support a team yet. However, I think the AFL would make a lot back by way of being a truly national game, which would somewhat offset the financial loss by the team. I'd suggest a 'Northern' team which splits its home games between Darwin and Cairns, also representing North Queensland, and perhaps playing a game in Alice Springs.

WA3 and SA3 are easy options but the AFL doesn't stand to gain as much from these as much as the aforementioned. Forget about Newcastle.

Here's what I predict:
2028 - Tassie
2032 - Brisbane/Sunshine Coast
2040s - Canberra
2040s - Northern Australia

If Canberra can get a stadium sorted, they'll sneak in as the 20th team, after which the AFL won't introduce the other 2 teams for another 15 odd years.

There's a chance that all 3 locations after tassie fall over if they can't get stadiums built, in which case the AFL might cave, and introduce a 3rd WA team. Because it won't want to have an odd number for too long.

Agree with most of this but why does an NT/Northern team make it a truly national game but ACT does not?

It is a point I see being made ad nauseam and I just don’t get it.

Sure, Canberra is a tiny blip on the map of Australia but it’s the capital city and is what, 4x more the population than Darwin, way more livable, better infrastructure, etc.

Either way, I’d love to see those inclusions you suggested but swap Canberra with Brisbane as I’m sure Manuka gets that upgrade.

I think the AFL would be tempted by Brisbane 2 but it’ll be interesting to see if they pivot towards Sunny Coast instead and get in before the NRL does.

Or, if the AFL did go for a hybrid northern team then they might do the same with a second Brisbane side and have them play 2-3 home games at the SC.

I would say never say never with Auckland or Newcastle but they do seem much further away than ACT, WA3 and a 3rd SEQ side.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Geelong

Population: 276,000

2024 Average Attendees: 32,000



Canberra

Population: 456,000

2024 Average Attendees: 13,000



Darwin

Population: 140,000

2024 Average Attendees: 6,000



Hobart

Population: 226,000

2024 Average Attendees: 7,000



Launceston

Population: 71,000

2024 Average Attendees: 12,000



Sunshine Coast

Population: 360,000

Going by the numbers…. Canberra and Sunshine Coast must be in the mix

Two further points for Canberra.

1. That's just the ACT's population. We have suburbs in NSW as well. Depending how you measure it, we have almost 600k within about an hour of Manuka.

2. All of our games were sell outs last year. Our average would've been higher if capacity allowed.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Here we are, round 2 in 2025, already we are seeing solid thrashings, at least 6 teams with no hope of playing finals, and another couple in same boat by round 5. Far too many teams, and way too many substandard players running around. The talent is spread way too thin.

So, what's the AFL's solution? Add more teams, recruit more crappy players. Brilliant. Andrew Dillon is a mental pygmy.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Here we are, round 2 in 2025, already we are seeing solid thrashings, at least 6 teams with no hope of playing finals, and another couple in same boat by round 5. Far too many teams, and way too many substandard players running around. The talent is spread way too thin.

So, what's the AFL's solution? Add more teams, recruit more crappy players. Brilliant. Andrew Dillon is a mental pygmy.

We had one of our most even seasons ever last year.

It's a bit quick to judge this season of less than two full rounds.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Here we are, round 2 in 2025, already we are seeing solid thrashings, at least 6 teams with no hope of playing finals, and another couple in same boat by round 5. Far too many teams, and way too many substandard players running around. The talent is spread way too thin.

So, what's the AFL's solution? Add more teams, recruit more crappy players. Brilliant. Andrew Dillon is a mental pygmy.

You do realise that the new teams are not literally going to be filled by the players that otherwise aren't in the AFL?

Your argument is a point about distribtion among players. In theory if players are distributed evenly all games will be close no matter how many teams there are in the league.

 

[Coolangatta]

You do realise that the new teams are not literally going to be filled by the players that otherwise aren't in the AFL?

Your argument is a point about distribtion among players. In theory if players are distributed evenly all games will be close no matter how many teams there are in the league.

Well said, wish more people understood this. The AFL has one of the best equalisation policies of any sport in the world.

Not to mention, a team that got flogged last week is currently flogging a team who had a big win last week. It’s almost as if it’s going to be a fairly even comp again this year.

People who complain about expansion tend to be the same people who don’t want any Victorian teams to relocate.

You’ve got to pick one or the other because expansion is inevitable.

Want to keep it to 20 teams? Then one or two Victorian teams have got to move.

Want to keep the number of Victorian teams to 10? That’s fine, just don’t complain when we expand beyond 20 teams.

The AFL is adopting a “never say never” attitude to expansion. Which means I’m willing to bet it will happen.

 

[Badger17]

The upcoming teams will be dependant on government infrastructure - stadiums.

Canberra is the obvious next choice for a team. However the nrl are begging for a new rectangle stadium there. If they get that, it'll be ages before manuka can get the funds to do a proper upgrade that the AFL will accept as acceptable to provide a licence. Tassie has proved that a decent 20k+ modern stadium is vital. Manuka oval with a few band-aid extensions won't cut it. If the AFL and big bash can team up to lobby government to build an oval stadium instead of a rectangular one, Canberra is a lock for team 20

A third Queensland team could be in the running depending on what the government provides surrounding the Olympics. There's huge growth to be had in Queensland, and more local rivalry helps.

Darwin is the popular choice amongst fans . However they neither have the stadium nor population to support a team yet. However, I think the AFL would make a lot back by way of being a truly national game, which would somewhat offset the financial loss by the team. I'd suggest a 'Northern' team which splits its home games between Darwin and Cairns, also representing North Queensland, and perhaps playing a game in Alice Springs.

WA3 and SA3 are easy options but the AFL doesn't stand to gain as much from these as much as the aforementioned. Forget about Newcastle.

Here's what I predict:
2028 - Tassie
2032 - Brisbane/Sunshine Coast
2040s - Canberra
2040s - Northern Australia

If Canberra can get a stadium sorted, they'll sneak in as the 20th team, after which the AFL won't introduce the other 2 teams for another 15 odd years.

There's a chance that all 3 locations after tassie fall over if they can't get stadiums built, in which case the AFL might cave, and introduce a 3rd WA team. Because it won't want to have an odd number for too long.

Canberran here.

As long as Andrew Barr is chief minister there's more chance of a new oval stadium being built in Canberra than a rectangle.

No matter how much the city needs it, as Bruce is genuinely a failed public safety inspection from the western grandstand being closed at this point, there's next to no chance of a new rectangular stadium being built here in this decade or the next. Realistically the best the Raiders and Brumbies can hope for is a glorified upgrade that extends Bruce's useful life by another decade or so.

The NRL themselves aren't really actively involved in lobbying for the new stadium in Canberra either. The only time they comment on it is on the odd occasion that somebody contacts them for their opinion, aside from that they've pretty much ignored it.

Though I agree that the AFL would probably demand a new stadium, you wouldn't really need it. You could definitely get away with a major overhaul of Manuka.

New stadium or not, a third team in SEQ would be a horror show. Maybe it could work in a few decades, but all putting a second team in Brisbane would do is split the market at the moment.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Here we are, round 2 in 2025, already we are seeing solid thrashings, at least 6 teams with no hope of playing finals, and another couple in same boat by round 5. Far too many teams, and way too many substandard players running around. The talent is spread way too thin.

So, what's the AFL's solution? Add more teams, recruit more crappy players. Brilliant. Andrew Dillon is a mental pygmy.

We are at least 50 years away from having 22 teams.
Like you say the quality is not there now for 18 teams let alone another 4.

 

[Coolangatta]

We are at least 50 years away from having 22 teams.
Like you say the quality is not there now for 18 teams let alone another 4.

Cairns and Darwin are the most AFL friendly places left after Canberra, so you may very well be correct about 50 years before we go beyond 20.

I only say that because while the AFL may not want to go beyond 20, I do think they’ll always consider the NT and we all know they’ve already talked about NQ.

They aren’t talking about anywhere else, yet.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Cairns and Darwin are the most AFL friendly places left after Canberra, so you may very well be correct about 50 years before we go beyond 20.

I only say that because while the AFL may not want to go beyond 20, I do think they’ll always consider the NT and we all know they’ve already talked about NQ.

They aren’t talking about anywhere else, yet.

I know NQ sometimes comes up, but with the climate up there you really couldn't play any AFL games up to early May

 

[Coolangatta]

I know NQ sometimes comes up, but with the climate up there you really couldn't play any AFL games up to early May

Is that the same with games in Darwin?

If so, how many rounds would that be for a northern club where they couldn’t play games in Darwin or Cairns?

If 7, I was thinking the only way it might work is they play their first two games in Alice Springs. That’s 2 games.

After that, hub in Adelaide for three weeks, one of them a gather round game against a neutral club. That’s another 3, so 5 games total.

After that, two weeks in Perth. That’s 7.

The rest of their home games would be played in Darwin and Cairns.

Of course, who wants to spend up to two months away from their family and friends?

So yeah, it may be impossible, and climate is certainly an issue that should come up when talk of teams in the top end happen.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Is that the same with games in Darwin?

If so, how many rounds would that be for a northern club where they couldn’t play games in Darwin or Cairns?

If 7, I was thinking the only way it might work is they play their first two games in Alice Springs. That’s 2 games.

After that, hub in Adelaide for three weeks, one of them a gather round game against a neutral club. That’s another 3, so 5 games total.

After that, two weeks in Perth. That’s 7.

The rest of their home games would be played in Darwin and Cairns.

Of course, who wants to spend up to two months away from their family and friends?

So yeah, it may be impossible, and climate is certainly an issue that should come up when talk of teams in the top end happen.

It is my understanding that that Darwin isn't quite as bad as the Cairns area in March April, plus I think Darwin is more AFL friendly than Cairns.
We are getting ahead of ourselves on this matter and see Canberra as team 20 after Tassie.